“走出去”的挑战和机遇

我在香港的第一任老板是天津人，既睿智又富有洞察力。他在上世纪70年代中期曾提醒我，不要落入众多西方的中国问题专家的陷阱。这些人常被蔑称为“中国观察家”，因为他们总是忙于占卜中国的政治走向，预测哪个领导人或领导团体能够执掌大权。相反，老板建议我研读政府政策和规划中的基本方向，并随潮流而动。

多年来这个忠告对我大有裨益，即使到了今天仍然十分灵验。

2011年开始的第十二个五年计划在中国和全世界都引发了诸多兴趣和讨论。该计划的首要任务包括调节经济发展的不平衡、开发西部及中等城市、扩大消费经济、继续完善养老、社保和医疗体制、平衡发展速度和环保的关系、推进中国金融资本市场改革、为中小企业和非公企业提供平等竞争环境、人民币国际化等内容。

对中资企业而言，另一个最大的兴趣点依然是“走出去”。

20年前跨国投资之所以进入中国，一个令人信服的理由就是中国必将成为重要的规模市场，企业一旦不能在中国取得成功，它在全球的竞争实力势必也会遭到削弱。

随着全球化影响的加深，这一断言已被证实。如今风水轮流转，很多中国大型企业也面临着同样的挑战：为保持长期竞争实力和成功，他们也需要建立并实施全球化的战略。

现有的广泛共识是，中企“走出去”的最大绊脚石是缺乏资本，而这一资本指的并非是金融资本，而是人力资本。

如今英文好的中国青年正在快速上位，其中也包括具备海外学习和生活经历的人在内。这是一种非常积极的变化，因为语言能力毕竟是必不可少的工具之一。

据估计，现在大约有3亿内地学生正在学习英语。另一项调查也表明，中国学习高级英语的人数已经超过了350万，而且今后3至4年还会成倍地增长。

事实上，英语国家（美国、英国、加拿大、澳大利亚、爱尔兰、新西兰）的国内生产总值（GDP）占全球25%以上，英语仍是商界最有效的沟通语言。此外，南亚和东南亚国家的英语普及程度较高，欧洲也有40%的人讲英语（讲法语的只占19%）。所以这一事实无可争议。

第二个重要的工具是跨文化技巧，这需要通过海外生活和工作经验、培训或二者兼顾才能获得。

第三个要求是与职业相关的能力和经验。

第四是长期远赴他乡生活、工作的愿望和动力。

关于第四点，在上一代中国人身上已经发生了巨大的变化。15年前，海外派遣还被广泛视为稀缺而难得的机会，但现在却被当成了苦差。特别是当中企向偏远的欠发达地区，而不是伦敦、悉尼、巴黎、纽约等世界级城市扩张时，这一点就显得尤为真实。

但问题是，对剑指全球的中企来说，要想觅到足够数量的具备上述全部四项条件的人才，几乎是不可能的，除非能找到新的根本解决办法。

很多年轻的中国“富二代”通过海外学习和工作获得了良好的语言、文化和工作技能。但他们中又有多少愿意去海外生活、并为别人的事业打拼呢？这是个仁者见仁，智者见智的问题。何况人们无论来自何方，终究哪儿也比不上家好。（还有我们必须面对一个事实：离大中华区越远，就越难找到好的中餐。）

未来10到15年，中国面临的机遇和挑战将与培养和储备适应“走出去”大潮所需的人才休戚相关。

随之而来的是，中国对公立及私立教育体制、企业和职业培训辅导、其他人才开发渠道的需求也将大幅提升。

私立英语学习机构，以及（SAT、GRE、GMAT等考试的）相关备考班在中国已然形成了朝阳产业，年消费达到50亿美元。

和语言能力一样，年轻人也需要上述其它技能和动力作为“走出去”的重要工具。而后者从某种程度上讲，也是教育的副产品。

鉴此种种，人力资源开发将无可争辩地成为中国未来几年增长最快的产业。

Going Global: Challenges and Opportunities

My first boss in Hong Kong, a wise and insightful gentleman from Tianjin, used to advise me back in the mid-1970s not to fall into the trap of many Western China experts — often referred to pejoratively as “China watchers” — who would busy themselves trying to read the tea leaves of Chinese politics and predict which leader or group will come out on top. Instead, he suggested, study the basic directions outlined in government policy and plans, and follow the emerging big trends.

This advice has served me well over the years, and it seems as timely today as it did then.

The 12th Five-year Plan, which was begun in 2011, has generated a lot of discussion and interest in China and globally. Some of the major priorities addressed in the Plan, include rebalancing economic inequality; developing Western China and medium-sized cities; ramping up the consumption economy; further developing pensions; social security and health care systems; balancing fast growth with green strategies, kick-starting further reforms to China’s financial and capital markets; leveling the playing field for SMEs and other non SOEs; internationalization of the RMB, etc.

Another priority of huge interest to Chinese companies continues to be “Going global”.

One compelling argument which brought multinational investors to China 20 years ago was that China would become such an important market of scale that failure to succeed in China could undermine a company’s competitiveness on a global basis.

That assertion proved true, as the impact of globalization gained traction. Today, many large Chinese companies are facing the same challenge in reverse: to be competitive and successful in the long run, they need to develop and implement a global strategy.

There is widespread consensus that the biggest stumbling block in the way of Chinese companies going global is indeed a shortage of capital, but not of the financial sort. Rather, the shortage is one of human capital.

It’s true that the ranks of young Chinese with good English skills are growing fast, including those with overseas study and living experience. This is a very positive development, because language is an essential part of the necessary toolbox.

It is widely estimated that some 300 million mainland students are currently studying English. Other research suggests that the number of advanced English learners in China is already in excess of 3.5 million and capable of doubling within the next 3-4 years.

Given the fact that the English-speaking world (US, Britain, Canada, Australia, Ireland, New Zealand ) represents more than 25% of global GDP, English is still the most widely useful language in business. Add to that the widespread English ability in South and Southeast Asian countries, and the fact that 40% of Europeans speak English (versus 19% Francophone); and there is no real room for debate.

The second essential tool is cross-cultural skills, acquired through overseas living and working experience, training, or a combination of both.

The third requirement is job-related abilities and experience.

Fourth is the desire and motivation to live and work far away from home, possibly for extended periods of time.

On this fourth point there has been a significant change in China during the past generation. Unlike 15 years ago when an overseas assignment was widely considered a rare and precious opportunity, today it’s equally likely to be viewed as a hardship post. This is especially true as Chinese companies expand into more remote, lesser developed areas of the world, as opposed to world-class cities like London, Sydney, Paris or New York.

The point is that for Chinese companies with global plans, finding sufficient numbers of talented people with all four of these key attributes is going to be impossible unless radical new solutions are found.

Plenty of young “wealthy second generation” Chinese have the language, cultural, and job skills, acquired by studying and working overseas. However, how many of them have the desire and motivation to live overseas and build someone else’s business? That’s a very different question. And after all, no matter where you’re from, there’s no place like home. (And let’s face it, the further you go from Greater China, the more difficult it is to find good Chinese food.)

One of the biggest challenges and opportunities in the next 10-15 years in China relates to preparing the necessary ranks of human capital to cope with the big emerging trends like going global.

This will place huge demands on the Chinese public and private education system as well as all forms of corporate and vocational training, coaching and other channels of developing talent.

Private study of the English language, and related test preparation (SAT, GRE, GMAT etc.) services — is a booming business in China, already in the range of US$5 billion in annual consumer spending.

As much as English language skills are an essential part of the going global toolbox, young people will also need the other skills mentioned above, and the motivation, which is also a by-product of education to some extent.

All things considered, the development of human capital will arguably be the biggest growth industry in China for many years to come.

Facebook会丢脸吗？

Facebook首次公开募股箭在弦上，一夜间将造就众多亿万富翁，身价陡增坐拥百万的人更不在少数。

祝他们马到成功！Facebook公司在短短8年里取得了惊人的业绩，无论是在技术和商业模式上的创新，还是作为触动全球的社会现象和商业案例，他们的成功都令人难以置信。

然而，在看到分析人士普遍看好Facebook，纷纷预测其未来必将持续“上扬”时，我却被这个前景一片美好的故事中的大破绽吓了一跳。

在我写这篇博客时，Facebook的用户有8.5亿人/月，预计到今年年底将达到10亿。相比之下，Twitter的用户大约是3.83亿，而Google+ 号称有9,000万注册用户。

据估计，Facebook有80%的用户都来自北美以外地区。这一数字常被用来证明Facebook征服世界的精准定位，但由于忽略了某些重要因素，这种观点不免过于肤浅，也缺乏说服力。

首先最明显的一点是，如果不包括中国，Facebook就不可能取得真正意义上的全球成功。另外还有两大Facebook并非社交网络“带头大哥”的市场鲜有提及：一个是俄罗斯，一个是越南。在这三个国家，本土社交网络占据了市场主导地位。

以中国为例，新浪微博的注册用户已达到3亿，其他社交网站——如人人、开心、朋友、QQ空间等，这几个网站的用户群也相当惊人。

Facebook如今八成用户来自北美以外的事实导致了一些误判，让人误以为一谈到社交网络，全世界消费者的兴趣和爱好都一模一样，而最初为美国消费者设计的网络也会对全世界各个角落的人产生同等的、长久的吸引力。但在我看来，这种假设最终将大错特错。

我们美国人，包括像我这样的媒体人，天生就有一种自大的倾向，因此在看待事物时就更容易出现盲点。

这是一种“皇帝女儿不愁嫁”的心态，和美国文化输出有关。事实上，我们造的东西有时太美国化了，忽略了消费者迅速变化的喜好、习惯、兴趣，以及世界其他地区的本土竞争对手。

全球化、网络消费爆炸、世界逐渐变小模糊了一个事实，即如今发表的新闻与三十年前相比，以本土新闻居多，国际新闻居次。

据麻省理工学院公共新闻中心主任Ethan Zuckerman说，美国发布的国际新闻还不足上世纪70年代的一半，英国四大日报的国际报道也比1979年减少了45%。更有甚者，根据他的研究，美国网民关注的新闻95%是国内新闻。

事实上，过去10年，美国、英国还有其它跨国媒体机构——通讯社、报纸、杂志——都面临着前所未有的经济压力和挑战。毫不奇怪，他们中的大多数都削减了新闻社等固定管理费用，也裁减了驻地记者等人员。与15年前相比，大部分国际新闻机构的海外分社和记者数量都大幅减少。

Facebook在短短8年内一举成名的现象可谓“好坏参半”，因为它带来一个不可回避的问题，即它的成功轨迹能否在中远期实现可持续发展。

如果答案还有赖于Facebook能否兑现征服世界的诺言，那请恕我站在怀疑者的一边。

纽约作家Lane Green Roberte最近在《智慧生活》杂志（Intelligent Life）上撰文说，“Facebook是在电话发明以来最大的社交现象。”

这种说法很有意思，但也许言之过早。1880年初，电话还是个新鲜物，在美国只有30,000个用户。而到了当年年底，这一数字就飙升至50,000。接下来的十年，美国家庭和办公室的电话装机总量达到了16万部。

一方面，130多年来我们目睹了电话技术在全世界的急速发展和演变。另一方面，它也代表着一种文化和政治上中立的技术和商业模式。

就像现在很多用户抱怨Facebook和Google+ 与日俱增的骚扰和隐私问题，当年很多观察家也对电话的普及不感兴趣。

例如1890年马克•吐温就在《波士顿环球》上发表了圣诞贺词：

“我满怀热情地向全世界许下我的圣诞愿望，愿所有人，无论高低贵贱，无论贫富尊卑，无论爱恨，无论文明野蛮（地球上的每个兄弟），都将欢聚在永恒宁静的极乐世界。但发明电话的家伙除外。”

可以想见，假如马克•吐温还活着，他会用马克•扎克伯格取代电话发明人来许愿的。

Will Facebook Lose Face?

Facebook’s impending IPO is set to make a number of overnight billionaires, and catapult many more into the ranks of millionaires.

More power to them. The company has been an incredible success story in its short 8-year history, in terms of technological and business model innovation, as well as a social phenomenon reaching many parts of the globe, and as a business story.

Still, as I read the analysts’ generally bullish forecasts about the prospects of a continued “upward ho” for Facebook, I am struck by a few important disconnects in this rosy portrayal of the likely future story.

As of this writing, Facebook has some 850 million monthly users, a figure which is forecast to reach 1 billion later this year. By comparison, Twitter has about 383 million users, and Google+ claims some 90 million registrants.

It is estimated that about 80% of Facebook users are outside of North America. This figure is often used to support the assertion that Facebook is well positioned to conquer the world; but this is a superficial and unconvincing view which overlooks some important factors.

First, and most obvious, is the fact that Facebook cannot be a truly global success story without China. Less frequently cited are two other major markets where Facebook is not the lead player in social networking: Russia, and Vietnam. In all three markets, local social networking sites reign.

In China, for example, Sina Weibo has 300 million registered users, and a string of other local social networking sites — Renren, Kaixin, Pengyou, Qzone, etc. — boast impressive user bases as well.

The fact that 80% of Facebook’s current user base is located outside North America leads some to make the false assumption that when it comes to social networking, all consumers across the globe have the same interests and preferences, and that what has been designed primarily for American consumers, will appeal equally, and on an enduring basis, to consumers in all corners of the globe. This is an enormous assumption which in my view will turn out to be false.

We Americans, including those of us in the media business, are endowed with a tendency towards a kind of arrogance which in turn gives rise to a blind spot.

It’s a kind of “If we build it, they will come” mentality with regard to our branded content offerings. In fact, sometimes what we build is too American and overlooks the rapid changes in consumer preferences, habits, interests, and available local alternatives in other parts of the world.

Globalization, the explosion of internet consumption, and the apparent shrinkage of the globe obscure the fact that far more of the news published today is local rather than international, as compared with 30 years ago.

According to Ethan Zuckerman, Director of the Center for Civic Media at MIT, American news features less than half as many international stories as were broadcast in the 1970s; and Britain’s 4 major daily newspapers publish an average of 45% fewer international stories than in 1979. Furthermore, according to his research, 95% of the news consumed by American internet users is published in the U.S.

The reality is that American, British and other international media organizations — wire services, newspapers, and magazines — have faced unprecedented financial challenges and pressures during the past 10 years. Not surprisingly, most have cut back on fixed overheads like news bureaus, as well as headcount, like reporters in the field. Most international media organizations have far fewer international bureaus and reporters than they did 15 years ago.

Facebook’s phenomenal success in a short 8 years is a “good news, bad news” story, in the sense that it prompts the inevitable question of whether this trajectory is sustainable over the medium to long term, or not.

If the answer depends on Facebook delivering on the promise that they will conquer the world, then count me among the skeptics.

New York-based writer Robert Lane Greene recently wrote in “Intelligent Life” magazine that “Facebook is the biggest social phenomenon since the telephone.”

It’s an interesting assertion, but it may be early days yet. As of the beginning of the year 1880, when the telephone was still a very new-fangled device, there were 30,000 telephone subscribers in the U.S. By the end of 1880, the number of subscribers had soared to 50,000; and within 10 years, there were nearly 160,000 phones in American households and offices.

For one thing, we’ve had more than 130 years to watch the extraordinary development and evolution of telephony around the world. For another, it represents a culturally and politically neutral technology and business model.

Just as many Facebook and Google+ users complain about their growing intrusiveness and related privacy issues, many observers were less than enthusiastic about the spread of the telephone in the early days.

Consider, for example, what Mark Twain had to say in his Christmas greetings in 1890, published in the Boston Globe:

“It is my warm-hearted and world-embracing Christmas hope and aspiration that all of us, the high, the low, the rich, the poor, the admired, the despised, the loved, the hated, the civilized, the savage (every man and brother of us throughout the whole earth), may eventually be gathered together in a heaven of everlasting rest and peace and bliss, except the inventor of the telephone.”

We can only wonder whether, if Twain were still among us today, he would substitute Mark Zuckerberg for the inventor of the telephone in that statement.

媒体腐败的侵蚀作用

《纽约时报》近期（2012年4月5日）的一篇文章报道说，中国媒体对业内普遍存在的腐败及不道德行为早已见怪不怪，但这种行为对国际媒体的影响却很重大。

文章列举了一些常见的恶劣行径——例如公关公司给参加新闻发布会的记者塞“车马费”红包、有偿撰稿（软文）、有偿创作旅行等——此外还给出了一些出版社和公关公司的名字。这些被点名的单位都有员工承认曾经参与过上述类似行为。

对被点名的美国公司来说，后果可能是致命的，因为美国实行《反海外腐败法》（简称FCPA）。近年来，美国政府着力调查FCPA违法案件。该法不仅适用于美国公司，也适用于它们的海外办事处、分支机构以及授权经营单位，一旦证实出现违法行为，将会面临刑事处罚的严重后果。

各家企业都对此格外重视，这也在情理当中。因为在美国总部负责中国（及其他国家）运营的人员可能会因为海外员工或办事处的行贿行为而承担刑事责任——有可能遭受牢狱之灾。

根据近几个月我和美国律师事务所的对话了解，与FCPA相关的咨询和行动已呈明显上升趋势。美国公司不仅要依法行事，还要通过组织培训和大力宣传来表明自己对这一目标的支持。

一些非美国人对FCPA冷嘲热讽，认为腐败比比皆是，美国也不能免俗。即使是美国媒体，在内容选择上也不可能对商业影响完全免疫。

当然这种说法也有对的地方，但程度还是有所不同。例如：知名新闻及商业出版机构一般标准较高，在编辑部（有时被称为“教堂”）和业务部（“官方”）之间常设有较高的壁垒。但其他的媒体类别（比如B2B或消费类的媒体）在这方面就比较宽松。

新媒体平台和形式的涌现，以及消费者消费模式的转变都对传统做法形成了冲击波，也带来了挑战，但相关的基本准则仍然保持不变。

FCPA对美国公司在全球的经营行为加以管辖，以往的执行力度都不如近几年大，但那些日子已经一去不复返了。外国公司无论情愿与否，都必须顾及这个现状，否则就需另觅合作伙伴。

至于和付费媒体内容相关的不道德行为，消费者是首当其冲的受损害方，因为媒体内容在采编过程中被悄悄打了折扣，消费者最感兴趣的部分被商业考量所取代。时间一长，消费者都足以看出这其中有猫腻了。

而这种行为长期持续下去，媒体品牌才是真正的输家。由于公信力和信赖感受到侵蚀，媒体品牌的真正价值不升反降，竞争差异逐渐减弱，甚至不堪一击。在“牧师”受到准垄断保护，媒体市场异常火爆或高度活跃的状态下，这种失败可能不会马上显现，但一段时间过后必然暴露无遗。这明显是一种竭泽而渔，只顾眼前的做法。

媒体或其他任何机构的品牌信誉和个人声望一样，都是百年累之，一朝毁之。而品牌信誉一旦受损，所需的修复时间比新建一个品牌要长很多。

要解决大陆媒体的道德违规，很重要一部分在于媒体高层管理人员。倘若连他们都不能洁身自好，认可并展现出良好的价值观，又怎能指望下属编辑和业务人员奇迹般地一清二白呢？

这种价值观和原则应该自招聘和面试伊始就予以明确，再通过行为准则贯彻实施，并利用薪酬福利作为保障，以减少收受红包或其他优厚条件的诱惑。

而直到媒体职业道德风气焕然一新以前，大批中国媒体还将继续受到消费者信任危机的困扰，同时滋生的还有越来越深的无力感：找不着合适的人才来提升媒体实力。 

The Corrosive Influence of Corruption in Media

A recent article in the New York Times (April 5, 2012) on widespread unethical and corrupt practices in Chinese media (“Good Press in China for Those Able to Pay”) may have contained nothing very new to China media hands, but it had quite an impact among international media owners.

Apart from outlining examples of common bad practices — such as PR firms giving red envelopes containing “travel allowances” to journalists who attend press conferences, paid editorial coverage (a.k.a. “soft advertising”), paid editorial travel, etc. — the NYT piece named names of publishers and public relations companies whose employees admitted to engaging in these or similar practices.

For U.S. companies named, this has potentially dire consequences, because of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA). In recent years, US government agencies have been much more aggressive in investigating and enforcement of alleged FCPA violations. FCPA binds not only US companies, but also their overseas agents, distributors, and licensees to compliance, with criminal consequences in cases where violations are proven.

It’s no wonder that companies are taking this seriously. An executive sitting in the U.S. head office who has responsibility for operations in China (or other countries) is potentially criminally liable — ie eligible for a jail term — for bribes paid by employees or their agents in country.

Conversations I’ve had in recent months with US law firms indicate that inquiries and activities related to FCPA are clearly on the upswing. US companies not only need to be compliant, but they are anxious to be seen to be engaged in training and communications in support of that goal.

Some of my non-American friends are cynical about FCPA, maintaining that there is corruption everywhere, including the US, and that US media is not immune to the exertion of commercial influence over content decisions.

Of course there is truth in that, but it’s also a matter of degree. Leading brands among news and business publications, for example, generally have high standards and high walls between the editorial department (sometimes referred to as “church” in this context) and the business department (“state”). Some other categories of media (e.g. business to business, consumer special interest, etc.) are a bit more relaxed in this respect.

The explosion of new media platforms and formats, and paradigm shifts in consumer consumption patterns, have unleashed waves of change and challenge to traditional practices, but the fundamental principles involved remain unchanged.

FCPA is a binding law which governs the operations of US companies around the world. There was an era when it was not as aggressively enforced as it has been in recent years. That era is past. Companies of other national domains need to take this reality into account, whether they like it or not. Or choose other partners to do business with.

With regard to unethical practices concerning paid content in media, the consumer is the first loser, because the content generation process is invisibly compromised, with the consumer’s best interests overridden by commercial concerns. Over time, consumers are smart enough to figure this out.

The real loser in the medium to longer term is the media brand, because its real value shrinks rather than growing, as its credibility and trust are eroded. The brand’s competitive differentiation becomes weak and vulnerable. In an overheated or hyperactive media market where quasi-monopolies protect incumbents, this doesn’t become obvious overnight; but in due course it must and it will. It’s clearly a case of short term benefit, long term loss.

Like individual reputation, a good brand reputation takes a long time for media or any other organization to build and nurture; but only a short time to damage. A damaged brand can take much longer to repair than the time which would be required to build a new one from start.

An important part of the solution to ethical malpractice in mainland media lies with top management of the media organizations. If they don’t endorse and showcase a set of good values, how can their editorial and business staff be expected to miraculously come clean?

Those values and principles should be enunciated starting with the recruitment and interview process, reinforced by codes of conduct, and buttressed by compensation and benefits packages which reduce the temptation to take red packets or other inducements.

Until the professional ethical landscape is cleared up, big swathes of Chinese media will continue to suffer from a credibility problem among consumers, as well as a growing inability to hire the right kind of talent to take them to the next level.

先听好消息，再听坏消息

不久前，我乘阿拉斯加航空公司的AS2602航班从墨西哥的洛雷托飞往洛杉矶。这家航空公司是美国国内的一家小航空公司，专门运营美国西海岸的航线。

本次航班的机型是庞巴迪Q400，是由加拿大生产的一种短程螺旋桨飞机，载客量在80人上下。机上的座位比较局促，特别是对“负荷大”或者“XXL”码的乘客来说。机舱里只有一个卫生间，而且非常狭小。

在墨西哥小城机场候机的旅客大部分都是一身休闲度假装扮——穿着短裤、拖鞋，戴着遮阳帽、墨镜等等。很多人都是退了休的中年人，有些带着子女或者孙辈，包括特别小的婴儿，还有几位牵着小狗。

播放登机广播之前，登机口的值机人员宣布了一件事。但他没有用麦克风，所以我只听到了只言片语，好像是和卫生间有关。一些离他近的旅客听到以后，纷纷起身去了卫生间。

对当天的航程来说（80个人和几只小动物要在几个小时里抢一个卫生间），这似乎只是个常识问题，没有什么反常的。

随后，登机广播响了起来。我们顶着正午的骄阳，步行穿过停机坪登上飞机。航班满员了。大家在狭窄的椅子上刚一坐定，舱门就关闭了，飞行员开始广播。

首先是好消息：洛杉矶天气良好，我们将准时起飞，飞行时间按计划是2小时10分钟（大抵相当于成都到北京的航程）。

接下来是坏消息：机上的卫生间不能用。

什么？！！！

飞行员解释说卫生间不能用不是因为故障，而是因为“满了”。这简直是在伤口上撒盐。

他的语气很就事论事，轻巧得好像是在宣布换掉午餐的一道小菜：“抱歉各位，今天没有鸡肉汉堡了。试试奶酪火腿吧。”

我怀疑阿拉斯加的水管工是不是罢工了。

飞机开始在跑道上滑行。有种感觉袭上了心头——作为付费客人，我们的权益就这样被侵犯了，简直让人难以置信。我们被禁锢在一个密闭的空间里，（包括登机和下机时间在内）将有三个小时不能去卫生间。

我一边想着怎么可能发生这种事，一边记起伟大的阿拉斯加除了这家航空公司以外，还出过08年共和党副总统候选人莎拉•佩林，以及无数深夜档电视节目和喜剧的笑料。嗯，这就难怪了。

飞机爬升了高度，科尔特斯海在脚下化作了地平线上的一片蔚蓝。我不由自主地捉摸起同行旅客在20,000英尺高空上的控制能力，我们成了空中的“膀胱湾”，气流颠簸会让这趟航班变得很难看。

要是我旁边穿夏威夷衬衫的大个子吃了墨西哥胡椒闹肚子怎么办？或者是最前排好动的小孩喝了百事可乐憋不住怎么办？

再或者是我后面傻笑不止的小两口，登机前刚在机场酒吧喝饱了超大杯的玛格利塔鸡尾酒又怎么办？我很想知道他们现在是不是后悔膀胱被判坐监3小时，还不得假释？

乘客里很多人都是年纪比我大的男性。众所周知，中年男人排尿的次数比公园里的小狗都频繁。

要是我们当中有些人支撑不到洛杉矶怎么办？小飞机上挤得满满当当，发生中国政府可能称之为不和谐事件的风险很高。迫不及待的人（或人们）在压力之下会干出什么事呢？会不会冲进驾驶舱要求发个夜壶？

设想一下这种紧急状态下飞行员和塔台之间的通话：

飞行员：“AS2602呼叫塔台。求救！求救！报告，有小撮旅客聚集在驾驶舱门口提出恶意要求。”

塔台：“他们的具体要求是什么？”

飞行员：“要求去卫生间，三个解小手、一个解大手，还有一个换尿片。”

我在脑子里搜索着对策。虽然螺旋桨飞机的飞行高度低于喷气式飞机，但没有一个顶尖专家会建议打开飞机的舷窗。

好吧，既来之则安之，我暗自想到。别去想这个事，平心静气地接受现状，希望其他旅客也能这样做。

当然，就在此时此刻，我隐约感到自然的召唤已经开始弱弱地敲响了警钟。

不、不、不，我想：“这只是个念头，不要去管它，忍住。看看书，看看杂志。分散一下注意力。把脑子转到别的事情上。想想脚下的不毛之地，忘了澎湃的科尔特斯海，忘了迅速扩大的膀胱湾。”

于是我开始看商业文章。

不幸的是，因为总惦记着，所以某些字眼和短句在阅读中总是跳出来，好像被划了重点符号或是用彩笔大写了一样。

比如：

提前释放季度业绩报告……

出口井喷……

受抑制的需求被短期压力压垮……

反倾销努力未能堵住潮流……

控制手段不在于工作……

产量爆炸性增长……

排放激增……

市场下滑加快……

价格压力加剧……

长期库存突然清空……

公报开启了闸门……

预料之外的火山喷发打乱了空中交通……

走后门属于违规……

绿色组织号召紧急拆除受威胁流域的大坝……

这些阅读材料现在真是于事无补，我想。还是不要读商业文章了，也不能老看手表。

于是我试着小睡一下，但在Q400上睡觉很不舒服，就跟站在拥挤的地铁里睡觉一样。

果然，飞机终于有惊无险地降落在洛杉矶国际机场。从飞机到入境关卡，旅客队伍行进速度之快都快赶上奥运会的老年组短跑选拔赛了。

我在航站楼服务台打听转机的候机楼。值班人员很友善也很帮忙。一位老太太问他电梯在哪儿，他说电梯一直都是坏的，不能用。这对残疾人来说可是个坏消息。

我步行十多分钟到了国际候机楼，在One World贵宾休息厅安顿下来。这个休息厅是由几家航空公司共享的，其中也包括我回香港的承运商国泰航空。休息厅很舒适，但有点拥挤和吵闹。

因为要停留5个小时，我就打开了电脑，但失望地发现无线网络信号又弱又不稳定。假如这是在墨西哥我不会觉得奇怪，但这是洛杉矶的国际机场啊！

后来，我登上国泰航空的新波音777-300ER飞机，一路享受着世界级的服务、美食，还有好几个卫生间——宽敞、空闲的卫生间——舒舒服服地飞越了太平洋。机上卫生间万岁！

很明显，美国需要太多新的基础设施。

阿拉斯加航空公司需要更多的水管工，还有更好的管理。

附言：我给阿拉斯加航空公司的客户服务负责人安迪•施奈德的去信石沉大海。安迪通过放在每位乘客座位背后的卡片搜集乘客意见，但也许他的收件箱也“满了”。

First the Good News, Then the Bad News

Not long ago, I flew Alaska Airlines, a small regional airline serving the US West Coast, on flight AS2602 from Loreto, Mexico, to Los Angeles.

The aircraft was a Canadian-made Bombardier Q400, a short-haul turboprop carrying about 80 passengers. Seating is a bit cramped – not well suited for “wide load” or XXL passengers. The cabin has only one small lavatory.

At the gate in the small town Mexican airport, most passengers were in relaxed holiday outfits – shorts, sandals, sun hats, shades, etc. Many were middle aged retirees. Some had their children and grandchildren with them, including tiny infants. Several had small dogs.

Just before the boarding call, the gate attendant made an announcement without the aid of a microphone. I could only hear a part of his message: something about bathrooms. Some passengers seated near him walked over to the bathrooms after his announcement.

This seemed more a question of common sense (80 people and a few small animals sharing one bathroom for several hours) rather than anything specific to our flight that day.

Then came the boarding call, and off we walked, across the tarmac in the hot midday sun. The plane was full. As passengers settled into their narrow seats, the doors were closed, and the pilot made an announcement.

First, the good news: the weather in L.A. was good, our departure would be on time, and flying time, as scheduled, would be about 2 hours and 10 minutes (roughly the same as a flight from Chengdu to Beijing).

Then, the bad news: there would be no lavatory service on this flight.

Say what?!!!

The pilot explained that the reason for no lavatory service was not that the toilet was broken, but rather that it was “full.” This seemed to be a case of adding insult to injury.

The tone of his voice was very matter-of-fact, as if he were announcing a small change in the lunch menu, such as: “Sorry, folks, no chicken sandwiches today. Try the ham and cheese.”

I wondered if the plumbers in Alaska were on strike.

The plane began to taxi down the runway. It struck me as incredible that our rights as fare-paying passengers had been infringed in this way. We were locked in a crowded space without access to a lavatory for roughly three hours (including boarding and deplaning time).

While pondering how this could possibly be happening, it occurred to me that apart from this airline, the great state of Alaska had also produced Sarah Palin, Republication Party nominee for Vice President in the Presidential election of 2008, and a rich source of material for late night TV hosts and comedians. Hmmmm.

As we gained altitude, the Sea of Cortez was a vast expanse of blue water far below us, at sea level. I couldn’t help but wonder about the holding capacity of my fellow passengers up here at 20,000 feet, forming, as we did, a kind of airborne Bay of Bladders. Turbulence could turn this into one ugly flight.

What if the big guy next to me wearing the Hawaian shirt had a Jalapeno-pepper-induced stomach outburst? Or if that restless teenager up front can’t hold his Pepsi?

And what about the giggling lovebirds behind me who’d been slurping jumbo Margaritas in the airport bar just before boarding? Any regrets, I wondered, now that their bladders had been sentenced to three hours’ in jail without any chance of parole?

A high percentage of the passengers were older men like me. As we all know, middle-aged men pee more frequently than puppies in the park.

What if a handful among us can’t make it all the way to L.A.? The risk of what Chinese authorities might call an unharmonious incident seemed high, given the bloated fullness of this skinny aircraft. What might a desperate person (or persons) in distress actually do in this situation? Storm the cockpit demanding a nightsoil bucket?

Just imagine the urgent pilot-to-control-tower chatter in such an emergency:

Pilot: “AS 2602 calling. Mayday. Mayday. Reporting an incident with a small group of hostile passengers making demands at the cockpit door.”

Control Tower: “What exactly are their demands?”

Pilot: “Demanding access to the lavatory for three ‘number ones’, one ‘number two’, and a diaper change…”

My mind surveyed the options. Even though turboprops fly at lower altitudes than jets, none of the leading experts recommend opening the windows.

OK, I thought to myself, it is what it is. Just don’t think about it. Accept the situation gracefully, and hope the other passengers do as well.

Of course, just at that moment, I had an inkling that the call of nature was faintly ringing its initial warning bell.

No, no, no, I thought: it’s just in your mind. Ignore it. Stifle it. Read your book. Read a magazine. Distract yourself. Get your mind onto something else. Think about the dry desert country below us, rather than the surging Sea of Cortez or the burgeoning Bay of Bladders.

So I started reading about business.

Unfortunately, given my state of mind, certain words and phrases kept jumping out at me as I read, as if they had been underlined and highlighted in big bold flashing neon letters.

Stuff like:

quarterly results released earlier than planned…

sudden surge in exports…

pent-up demand overwhelmed by short-term pressures…

anti-dumping efforts fail to stem the tide…

control measures not up to the job…

explosive growth in output…

dramatic spike in emissions…

market’s downward momentum gaining fast…

intense pressure on pricing…

sudden clearance of long held inventory…

results announcement opens the floodgates…

unforeseen volcanic eruption disrupts air traffic…

back door tactics fall afoul of regs…

green groups call for urgent removal of dams on threatened river system…

This reading material is really not helpful right now, I thought. Time to stop reading about business. Also time to stop checking my watch.

So I tried napping, which on the Q400 is about as comfortable as trying to sleep while standing in a crowded subway car.

Sure enough, the flight eventually landed in LA’s International Airport without incident. Between the airplane and the immigration checkpoint, the high-speed procession of passengers resembled an Olympic sprint trial for senior citizens.

Once in the terminal, I asked directions from the information desk to my connecting flight’s terminal. The man on duty was friendly and helpful. An older lady asked him where the elevator was. He said unfortunately the elevator had been broken all day long, and was still broken. Bad news for disabled or handicapped people, among others.

I walked ten minutes or so to the international terminal, and settled into the One World lounge, which is shared by several airlines including Cathay Pacific, my carrier back to Hong Kong. It’s a nice enough lounge, although crowded and noisy.

With a five-hour layover, I fired up my laptop, but found to my disappointment that the WI-FI signal was weak and unstable. I would not have been surprised if this were Mexico, but this was the international terminal at LAX.

Later, on board Cathay Pacific’s nice new Boeing-777-300 ER aircraft, I had a comfortable flight across the Pacific with world class service, good food, and lots of toilets. Roomy toilets. Empty toilets. Long live inflight toilets!

Clearly, America needs a lot of new infrastructure.

Alaska Airlines needs more plumbers. And better management.

P.S. My letter to Alaska Airlines’ customer service head, Andy Schneider, has so far gone without acknowledgement or response. Andy solicits feedback from passengers via a card placed in each seat back. Perhaps his in-box is “full”..

中国成本优势缩水

最近去纽约，发现靠观察商业走势为生的商人和专家表现出近年来较为明显的乐观态度。

可以肯定的是，受美国经济数据向好和欧债危机恐慌缓和的影响，道琼斯和标普公布的第一季度收益达到1998年以来的最高水平，纳斯达克也上升到了1991年来的最高点。

此外，二月份美国50个州中有29个州的失业率呈现出下降趋势。

尽管进入总统选举年会出现一些政治纷争，但美国时来运转的感觉似乎日益强烈。当然，经济不平等和痛苦仍将继续影响大多数美国人，而且还不只限于“占领华尔街”运动的参加者。

美国中产阶级仍然非常不满，这一点在眼下的选举辩论和竞选情况中表现得非常突出。正如杰夫•科尔文在4月9日的《财富》杂志（FORTUNE）中撰文写道：“政客们号称可以治愈中产阶级的伤痛，千万不要相信。”

美国人天性乐观。在经历了长时间的、令人痛苦和恐惧的经济萎缩后，无论是个人、企业，还是市州都做好了复苏的准备。

目前的关键是就业：人们重获工作，消费者重拾信心。

下一步是筹集新的资金与领导力，投入美国的教育体制，以便更好地适应未来的需求。

由于离岸生产、外包、向中国、印度、墨西哥等地转移生产的脚步毫不停歇，美国制造业曾一度被认为已经消亡，但如今看来似乎有些过度恐慌了。

以中国为例，近来发生的、以及预计将要发生的用工和其他成本的上涨已经导致某些产品的生产成本优势收窄。由于影响商业运行的监管、税收和政策既不稳定也不可预见，缺乏跨国公司资源的中小型外企在中国的经营困难重重。除非成本优势十分明显，否则这种风险没有必要。

2011年3月，日本福岛发生了双重灾难，此后不久泰国又发生了特大的洪灾，使得无数美国公司和企业暴露出了过度依赖单一大型供应链的风险。这不仅给美国，也给全世界造成了极大的困扰。同时，它也敲响了警钟，促使许多企业开始反思供应链的风险管理。

美国制造业的用工数量已经下滑了60年，制造业占GDP的比重也从1953年的30%缩水到了2010年的12%。

1979年，中国开始实行改革开放政策，而美国制造业的就业人数也达到了历史上的峰值——1,950万人。2011年，这一数字仅为1,170万人，还不到就业人员总数的9%。

科尔文在前文所述的《财富》杂志文章中还指出，1969年美国高中的毕业率为77%，创下历史最高，但此后就一路走低，跌到了今天的69%，也为这种变化添加了一个注脚。

包括中国在内的其他国家都在尽力为更多的人提供更好的教育，结果美国落到了中游。学历越高、技能越多，收入就越丰厚。IT革命也分流了很多中产阶级原本驾轻就熟的工作，比如制造业、后台区域和供应链。

能够如此乐观地看待美国，部分原因是有报道说美国及包括中国在内的跨国公司正在美国扩建和新建生产设施。美国南方各州在吸引外资方面行动更为积极，也更有成效。

自2009年陷入低点开始，美国制造业已创造了350,000个新的就业机会。

根据去年波士顿咨询集团（the Boston Consulting Group）的研究预测，如果将（包含但并不仅限于人员费用的）全部成本计算在内，中国制造业的相对优势将在五年内缩水，与美国低端制造业的成本相比将不再具有竞争优势。

尽管中美发展的阶段不同，但两个国家都需要完善各自的教育体系，更不用说税收及监管政策环境。虽然远隔重洋，但中美双方的利益却以一种十年前恐怕无法预测的方式奇妙地交织在一起。

China’s Shrinking Cost Advantage

During a recent visit to New York I found a distinctly more upbeat mood as compared with recent years, among business executives as well as professionals who watch business trends for a living.

For one thing, the Dow and S&P posted their biggest first quarter gains since 1998, and the Nasdaq its biggest since 1991, driven largely by improved US economic data and easing fears about the European debt crisis.

For another, February saw unemployment rates fall in 29 of the 50 U.S. states.

Despite the political divisiveness on display in this presidential election year, there seems to be an emerging sense that America is beginning to get its mojo back. That’s not to overlook the economic inequality and pain which still affects many Americans, not only the Occupy Wall Street movement participants.

The Middle Class in America is still very unhappy, which figures prominently in the current presidential election year debates and dynamics. As Geoff Colvin wrote in the April 9 issue of FORTUNE: “Politicians say they can cure the middle class blues. Don’t believe them.”

Americans are generally an optimistic lot. Following a long, painful, and scary period of economic contraction for people, companies, states and cities, people are ready for recovery.

At this stage, a lot of it has to do with jobs: people returning to work, and consumers regaining confidence.

In the next phase, one challenge will be to muster new investment and leadership into the American education system to better suit future needs.

There had been a sense that American manufacturing was dead due to the relentless pace of offshoring, outsourcing, and moving production to China, India, and Mexico. This is now looking like an exaggerated fear.

In the case of China, recent and anticipated increases in labor and other costs have sharply curtailed the cost advantage of making some types of products there. The impact of inconsistencies and unpredictability in regulatory, tax, and policy affecting business make it challenging for small to medium size foreign companies to operate there, because they lack the resources of giant MNCs. The risks are difficult to justify unless the cost advantage is very significant.

The March, 2011 double disaster in Japan’s Fukushima, shortly followed by phenomenal floods in Thailand, exposed the risks of overreliance on a single, massive supply chain for countless companies and industries in the U.S. This disruption caused problems not only in the U.S. but around the world, and it was a wake-up call for many, resulting in a widespread corporate rethink on supply chain risk management.

Manufacturing employment in the U.S. has been in decline for 60 years. Manufacturing output as a percentage of GDP shrank from around 30 percent in 1953 to about 12 percent in 2010.

In 1979, as China was embarking on its Open Door and Reform Policy, American employment in manufacturing reached its all-time high of 19.5 million people. In 2011, that number was just 11.7 million, representing less than 9 percent of total employment.

As a footnote, as Colvin points out in the FORTUNE piece mentioned above, America’s high school graduation rate peaked at 77 percent in 1969 and has been dropping ever since, to about 69 percent currently.

As other countries, including China, did a better job of providing more people with higher education, America slipped to the middle. The higher educated and skilled earned more, and the IT revolution shifted more jobs away from those which the middle class had been best suited for, in manufacturing, back office, and supply chains.

Some of the rebound in optimism in America has been kindled by reports that both American and international — including Chinese — companies are building or expanding new manufacturing facilities in the U.S. Southern U.S. states have been particularly active and successful in promoting inbound investment.

Since the low point in late 2009, nearly 350,000 new manufacturing jobs have been created in the U.S.

A study last year by the Boston Consulting Group estimated that if all the costs (including but not limited to labor costs) are taken into account, the relative advantage of manufacturing in China will shrink over the next five years, to the point where it will no longer be competitive with the lower end of the spectrum of U.S. manufacturing costs.

Although China and the U.S. are at very different stages of development, both urgently need to look at improving their respective education systems, not to mention tax and regulatory policy environments. And despite being separated by the great Pacific Ocean, their interests are curiously intertwined, in a complex way which few could possibly have forecast even ten years ago.

放鲨鱼一条生路吧！

为烹制鱼翅汤，全世界的鲨鱼遭到过度捕捞而数量锐减。面对人类这种荼毒生灵乃至灭绝物种的行为，鲨鱼的愤怒可想而知。

据专家估计，全球捕捞业每年捕杀3,000万至7,000万条鲨鱼，其中尤以亚洲国家为甚。香港是世界鱼翅交易中心，每年进口的干翅达到10,000吨。

大部分鱼翅都是通过切割采集的。鲨鱼被拖到渔船甲板上，生生割掉鳍后再被抛回水里，任由它们慢慢死去，做法极不人道。

尽管鲨鱼长期以来都被电影和科幻小说妖魔化了[其中最著名的是《大白鲨》（Jaws）系列电影）]，但事实上很多种鲨鱼从不伤人，而且对平衡海洋生态还起着极其重要的作用。

现有的捕鲨行为已经导致鲨鱼种群难以为继。作为重要的掠食者，鲨鱼的缺失也会连带导致食物链出现其他紊乱。

也许是一种终极猎食者（鲨鱼）和另外一种终极猎食者（人类）之间的因果报应吧，2010年全球鲨鱼袭击致死案上升到了二十年来的最高点。由此似乎可以得出一个初步结论：海里的鲨鱼少了，但剩下的都是饿昏了头的大块头。但事实并非如此。

2010年有记载的鲨鱼袭击事件共有75起——与近十年的平均值不相上下——但不同的是，2010年致人死亡的案例却翻了一番。

美国发生的鲨鱼袭击事件最多，达到了29起。但由于采取了更加完善的预备和应急措施，没有发生一例死亡。前往偏远并缺乏鲨鱼袭击紧急救治措施的地区旅游和探险是导致死亡率升高的主要原因。

在世界鲨鱼袭击排行榜上，美国以29起居第一，紧随其后的是澳大利亚11起，南非5起。排名前三的国家均有海岸线，且流行冲浪运动，所以出现鲨鱼袭击倒也在情理之中。其中冲浪时遭遇的袭击占60%，游泳占35%，潜水占5%。

到目前为止，鲨鱼袭击的主要对象都是不吃鱼翅的人。

大中华区的居民真是侥幸，但千万不要太得意了。上世纪九十年代中，香港就曾发生过非常罕见的鲨鱼袭人潮，持续时间长达三年之久，造成多起游泳者重伤和死亡事故。

当时，一位澳大利亚的鲨鱼专家应邀前往调查，但经过一番努力仍无法对所涉及的鲨鱼种类（主要怀疑对象为大白鲨、虎鲨、公牛鲨）以及袭人案突然集中爆发的原因得出结论。

有种说法是香港赤腊角机场（Chek Lap Kok airport）的建设破坏了传统的鲨鱼产卵区，此外全年无休的近海捕捞作业也迫使鲨鱼转而捕食两条腿的猎物。

香港很多海滩都设置了防鲨网，但九十年代的鲨鱼袭击案至今仍然是个不解之谜。

但是，有一点可以肯定的是：解决世界鲨鱼资源殆尽的关键在于中国消费者停止享用鱼翅汤和鲨鱼软骨丸。

一些酒店和餐饮集团为提高公众对这一问题的认识，从菜单上撤掉了鱼翅，对此我鼓掌欢迎。教育工作者、媒体从业者、决策者们也应该积极行动起来。

对于那些不相信生态说的人，一项近期研究显示，鱼翅中所含的神经毒素与阿尔茨海默症（老年痴呆）、葛雷克氏症（渐冻人）等脑部退化疾病有关。而早期研究更显示，食用鱼翅会有汞中毒的风险。

为了鲨鱼，为了海洋和我们子孙的健康，是时候做出改变了！

Let’s Finally Leave the Sharks Alone

It should come as no surprise that the world’s shark population, which has been severely depleted by overfishing to supply demand for shark’s fin soup, is unhappy about humans decimating their ranks to the point of near extinction of some species.

Experts estimate that humans are killing 30 to 70 million sharks per year through worldwide fishery efforts, much of it performed by the fishing fleets of Asian countries. In Hong Kong, the global capital of the shark fin trade, 10,000 tons of dried fins are imported each year.

Most of the shark fins are obtained through finning, an inhumane practice whereby the fin is cut off while the fish is on the deck of the fishing boat. The mutilated fish is then thrown back in the water to die slowly.

Although sharks have long been demonized in film and fiction, most famously by the “Jaws” series of movies, in reality most species of shark are harmless to man, and play a very important role in the ecological balance of the world’s oceans.

The current level of shark fishing is depleting the shark population to unsustainable levels, while the knock-on effect of removing a key predator from the feed chain is causing other dislocations.

Perhaps as karmic payback from one apex predator (sharks) to another (mankind), 2010 saw fatal shark attacks worldwide reach a 20-year high. The initial conclusion would seem to be: a lot less sharks are in the sea, but more of them are big, hungry ones. But this turns out to be wrong.

The number of documented shark attacks worldwide — 75 during 2010 — was about equal to the ten-year average. The difference is that twice as many of these proved fatal in 2010.

The U.S. had the largest number of shark attacks, with 29, yet due to improved readiness and contingency plans, none of these proved fatal. It turns out that the rise in fatality rates had more to do with tourists venturing further afield in more remote parts of the world, to places lacking emergency medical care for shark attack victims.

The U.S. lead the world tables with 29 shark attacks, followed by Australia with 11, and South Africa with 5. It’s logical that the top 3 have sea coasts where surfing is popular. Surfing accounted for 60% of attacks, followed by swimming at 35% and diving at 5%.

So far, sharks are mostly attacking people who don’t eat them in soup.

That’s an undeserved blessing for residents of Greater China, but let’s not be complacent. In the mid-90s there was a very unusual spike in shark attacks at beaches in Hong Kong, which involved serious injuries and several fatalities to swimmers, and lasted for about 3 years.

An Australian shark expert was called in to investigate, but the effort proved inconclusive as to identifying which shark species were involved (speculation focused on great whites, tiger sharks and bull sharks), or the reasons behind the sudden spate of attacks.

One theory was that the construction of Hong Kong’s Chek Lap Kok airport had disrupted a traditional spawning area for sharks, while at the same time the severe depletion of the inshore fish population through perennial overfishing forced sharks to feed on two-legged prey instead.

Shark nets were installed at many Hong Kong beaches, but the mid-90s incidents remain something of a mystery to this day.

One thing is for sure: the solution to the depletion of the worldwide shark population depends on Chinese consumers stopping their consumption of shark’s fin soup and shark cartilage pills.

I applaud the efforts of various hotel and restaurant groups to heighten awareness of this problem while taking shark’s fin off their menus. Educators, editors, and policy-makers need to address the issue more proactively as well.

For those who find the ecological argument unconvincing, a recent study suggests a link between a neurotoxin found in shark’s fins and degenerative brain diseases such as Alzheimer’s and Lou Gehrig’s disease. Earlier studies also highlighted the risks of mercury poisoning.

For the sake of the sharks, the health of our seas and of our children, it’s finally time to make a change.

戒药和戒酒市场值得关注

最近我在博客中谈到中国未来对戒烟产品和戒烟服务存在的潜在需求。虽然中国政府在抑制烟草消费上已经展开了初步的工作，但中国仍是全球排名第一的烟草消费大户。戒烟产品和戒烟服务在许多国家已经形成了规模化市场，有朝一日在中国肯定也会大有作为。

根据美国的经验判断，中国未来还有一个潜力巨大的市场，即酒精依赖和药物滥用的治疗市场。

近期美国乐坛巨星惠特妮•休斯顿的意外离世清楚地提醒我们，这种致命的病态行为在美国已经上升到了流行病学的高度。

2010年的一项估计显示，美国共有2,210万人存在着物质滥用和依赖的问题，占到成年人口总数的8.7%。他们当中有1,500万人是酒精依赖，420万人是药物依赖，还有290万人是双重依赖。这里所说的药物滥用既包括服用违禁药品，也包括超量服用成瘾性处方药物。

美国有3,800万成年人被认定患有狂饮症，即每月会有四次饮酒达到8杯。

根据美国卫生及公共服务部（the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services）的统计，目前共有2,000万美国人正处于物质滥用的康复期。

所有重要预计都显示，很大一部分美国人都在这种病态行为中苦苦挣扎。我敢肯定其中每个人身边都有一些亲友和同事正在深受其苦。

美国专业的戒酒、戒药门诊和住院部共有17,000多家，很多是私立或私人经营的医院。它们收费不菲，且不在普通医保范围内。每天前去门诊和住院部就诊的人数平均有700,000人。

按照美国的数据推断中国物质滥用现状肯定是十分愚蠢的，但更愚蠢的是假装中国不存在这个问题，或者忽视它正在蔓延的事实。

获取中国物质滥用情况的数据不像在美国那样简单，但我们完全可以假设，这个问题已经日趋严重、并且已经引起卫生、交通、执法部门以及家属、配偶、父母和企业界的重视。

我对美国这个问题严重程度的认识都拜吉姆•莫埃德所赐，他是位年轻的美国媒体人，一年前创建了一本这方面的专门杂志。（透露一下，吉姆是我堂弟，但我和他没有商业往来。）

吉姆具备专业的出版业背景，本人也有克服药物和酒精依赖的亲身经历。他深知精心设计、编辑满足戒断期人士需求的杂志、网站和手机应用软件应该大有可为。出于自身的经历，他对这项使命以及相关的商业计划充满了热情。

他筹集了70万美元的投资，创办了《新生》（RENEW）杂志和网站（www.reneweveryday.com），并以治疗中心作为主要的受众和发行渠道。由于接受治疗的患者大部分都是富人，所以杂志和网站也吸引了包括手表、汽车等各类厂家投放广告。

其他编辑也和吉姆一样，都曾有过物质滥用的经历并成功脱瘾。一些名人也乐于分享他们的经历，治疗和卫生团体的反响也都很积极。编辑们的使命之一就是要打消参与康复治疗的羞耻感和尴尬，提供正面的鼓励和支持。

A Market Worth Watching: Drug and Alcohol Abuse

Recently I wrote about the potential future demand for quit smoking products and services in China, the world’s largest consumer of tobacco, despite superficial government efforts to curtail consumption. Smoking cessation products and services have become big business in many other markets, and could become very big in China one day.

Judging by the American experience, another potentially huge future market in China may be specialized services to treat alcohol and drug abusers.

The recent untimely death of American music superstar Whitney Houston is a stark reminder that this deadly illness has reached epidemic proportions in the U.S.

One 2010 estimate puts the number of Americans with a substance abuse or dependence problem at 22.1 million people, or 8.7% of the adult population. Of these, 15 million are dependent on alcohol but not drugs; 4.2 million on drugs but not alcohol; and 2.9 million on both. Drug abuse in this context includes both illegal drugs as well as habit-forming prescription drugs which are taken in excess.

Some 38 million American adults are defined as binge drinkers, which means they consume 8 drinks in a session four or more times a month.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services puts the number of Americans currently in recovery from substance abuse at 20 million.

All of the leading estimates point to a very substantial number of Americans who are struggling with this illness. For every one of them you can be sure there are a handful of family members, friends and colleagues who are also badly affected.

There are more than 17,000 specialized inpatient and outpatient drug and alcohol treatment centers in the U.S., many of which are privately owned and operated, charging premium fees often not covered by typical health care insurance. On average, 700,000 Americans are in treatment — inpatient or outpatient — on any given day.

It would be foolish to try to extrapolate the extent of China’s current substance abuse problem on the basis of American statistics; but it would be even more foolish to pretend the problem does not exist, or that it is not growing, in China.

Statistics on the extent of the problem in China are not as easy to come by as they are for the U.S., but it’s a safe assumption that it is a large and growing concern for health, transport, and law enforcement authorities, as well as families, spouses, parents, and companies.

I’ve been educated on the extent of this problem in the U.S. by a young American media entrepreneur, Jim Moorhead, who started a magazine to serve this niche about one year ago. (Full disclosure: Jim is my cousin, although I have no commercial interest in his venture.)

With a professional background in publishing and a personal story of overcoming drug and alcohol abuse, he knew there was an opportunity for a well designed and edited magazine, website and mobile app to address the needs of people in the process of recovery. Given his own experience, he was passionate about the mission as well as the business plan.

He raised US$700,000 from investors and started RENEW Magazine, along with the website www.reneweveryday.com. Treatment centers are a focal point of his audience and distribution network. Because many of those in treatment are relatively affluent consumers, the print and online versions have attracted advertising from a variety of sectors including watches, autos, etc.

The editorial team, like Jim, have direct personal experience with substance abuse and the process of successful recovery. A number of celebrities have been willing to share their stories, and the reaction from the treatment and medical communities has been very positive. Part of the editorial mission is to take away the shame and embarrassment of being in recovery, offering positive encouragement and support.

《新生》杂志（RENEW）

中国人“走出去”最新指南

我曾经委婉地批评过一位在北京的美国同事，原因是她行为不当。虽然她中文很好，又有美国名牌大学的亚洲研究专业学历，但她太年轻，还欠缺一些跨文化交流的经验和技巧。

她曾经因为一位中方人员没能按时出席会议而火冒三丈，不仅对那人报以激烈的言词和手势，还用手指着对方的脸，让他在大庭广众面前下不来台。

跨文化交流的能力，例如语言，需要终生学习。有一点可以肯定的是，这种学习的目标总在不断变化，会随着时间而调整，不仅根据地域而改变，也会随年代而变迁。

上世纪八十年代，我陪同一个中方代表团首次出国访问。当时，为了其中三位代表的安全，我不得不打扰他们在高尔夫球道上信步的雅兴，因为一群美国球手正准备朝这个方向开球。这些代表根本就不知道高尔夫球究竟为何物，面对一群状似疯狂的美国人挥舞着金属杆儿朝他们大喊大叫就更不明所以了。

中外人士在彼此文化上犯下的无心过错可谓罄竹难书，如滔滔江水连绵不绝。

随着富起来的中国人、企业和学生“走出去”数量的攀高，料想今年四月即将出版的一本中文书一旦上架必将受到热捧。

这本书名为《魅力增添之道》（A Personal Guide to Effective Etiquette in Today’s Global Business World），由北京磨铁图书有限公司（Xiron Books Company Ltd.）出版，作者是资深的国际商务精英、作家伊登•科林斯沃斯女士（Eden Collinsworth）。科林斯沃斯女士来自纽约，拥有在多个国家生活、旅行和从商的经验，其中也包括中国。这些经历使她成为撰写本书的不二人选。

（透露一下：我没有通读全书，但浏览了全部章回目录和某些选段，看上去的确不错。）

New Guide for Chinese Going Global

I once mildly scolded an American colleague of mine in Beijing for inappropriate behavior. Although she possessed good Chinese language skills and an Asian studies degree from a top US university, she was young and lacking in cross-cultural experience and finesse.

Frustrated because a Chinese executive failed to show up for a scheduled meeting, she had reacted with aggressive words and gestures, pointing her finger in his face, creating embarrassment in a very public setting.

Cross-cultural skills, like language, are the stuff of lifetime learning. For one thing, they are moving targets, constantly changing over time, from one place to another, between one generation and another.

In the 1980s, while accompanying a Chinese delegation on their first overseas trip, I had to intervene for the safety of three delegates who were walking in a very relaxed manner down the middle of a golf course fairway while a group of American golfers were teeing off in their direction. They had no idea what the game of golf was about, let alone why these crazy Americans were shouting at them and waving metal sticks.

The catalog of foreigners and Chinese making cultural blunders in each other’s worlds is long and ever growing.

With wealthier Chinese, as well as companies and students going abroad in record numbers, a new book due to be published in April in Chinese should be a welcome addition to the bookshelf.

Called “A Personal Guide to Effective Etiquette in Today’s Global Business World”, the book was written by veteran global businesswoman and author Eden Collinsworth, and is published by Xiron Books Company Ltd. of China. A New Yorker with extensive experience living, travelling and doing business internationally, including China, Ms. Collinsworth is very well qualified to address the subject.

(Full disclosure: I have not read the full manuscript, but I have perused the chapter headings and selected parts of the text, and it looks good.)

伊登•科林斯沃斯女士（Eden Collinsworth）

唐人街风光不再

不断变化的人口特征严重影响到了旅美华人对居住地和居住方式的选择。

我小时候住在芝加哥郊区，当时的华人大多聚居在芝加哥的唐人街。生活在郊区的华人屈指可数，当然也有其他亚洲人，但数量都极少。

北美大多数大城市的情况都是如此，唐人街的华人大都操着一口中山话、台山话，或者其他南方口音，会普通话和英文的人很少。

初来者喜欢唐人街的理由很多，但语言上的便利、文化上的认同，以及和新移民间紧密的家庭联系都是最主要的因素，更不用说挣钱的机会了。

过去20年，从大中华区移民到北美的人口越来越多元化。其中，中国移民的来源地更加广泛，教育水平更高，从业经验更丰富，语言能力也更强。

新移民不需要也不希望淹没在老的唐人街中，而唐人街作为北美华人文化、政治、经济中心的日子似乎也已经一去不复返了。

来自亚洲其他国家的移民也呈现同样的趋势，开始分散到新的卫星城和郊区中去。

美国共有440万亚裔人口，他们和西班牙裔都是增长最快的族群。目前全美62%的亚裔人口——包括华人、韩国人和印度人——都居住在郊区，而这一数字在1990年只有54%。

郊区生活一直与二战后的“美国梦”联系紧密，颇受亚洲移民的追捧。而郊区学校的条件较好也是原因之一。

唐人街和城里其他传统的移民聚居区对受教育程度较低、技术和语言能力较差的移民仍有很大吸引力，因为在那儿他们可以比较容易地找到入门级别的工作。有些地区甚至已经发展成了当地的旅游点。

来北美的朋友经常抱怨当地的中餐质量太差。如果让餐厅解释，他们会说是因为外国顾客接受不了真正的中餐，所以才不得已对菜单进行改良，迎合当地的口味。

过去要想在北美找到地道的中餐，还是得去唐人街，尽管那时都是以粤菜为主。但纽约、多伦多、旧金山和温哥华的情况例外，这些地方的中餐品种都非常丰富。

随着唐人街的淡出，寻找上好的中餐越来越难。这并不是因为没有中餐，而是因为好的中餐厅现在都分散在城区和郊区不同的地方。

随着唐人街旅游收入的增加，希望眼光独到的企业家能抓住商机，提供原汁原味的地方风味餐饮。反过来说，我相信外国客人如果有机会尝尝地道的中餐，肯定也是可以接受和欣赏的。

Where’s Chinatown?

Changing demographics have heavily impacted where and how overseas Chinese in America choose to live.

When I was growing up in the suburbs of Chicago, the ethnic Chinese population was heavily concentrated in Chicago’s Chinatown. There were a handful of Chinese and other Asians in the suburbs, but not many.

The same was true in most large North American cities, where the streets of Chinatown were filled with people mostly speaking Zhongshan, Taishan and other Southern dialects, rather than Putonghua or English.

There are many reasons why Chinatown remained a magnet for new arrivals, but language ability, cultural affinity, and close family ties of new immigrants were all factors, not to mention economic opportunity.

During the past 20 years, the demographic diversity of immigrants from Greater China to North America has expanded dramatically, including a wider range of regional origins within China, higher level of education and professional experience, and language abilities.

Newer arrivals don’t need or want to be immersed in the old Chinatowns. As a result, Chinatown is no longer the center of cultural, political and economic life for North America’s overseas Chinese; and that trend appears to be permanent.

A parallel trend is evident among other immigrants from Asian countries, who are also dispersing to new satellite communities and the suburbs.

In the U.S., Asian Americans number 4.4 million, tied with Americans of Hispanic origin as the fastest growing ethnic group. Nationwide, some 62% of Asian Americans — including Chinese, Koreans, and Indians — now live in the suburbs, up from 54% in 1990.

Suburban living has been closely associated with the post WWII American dream, which has been clearly embraced by Asian immigrants. The draw of better schools in the suburbs is also a driver.

Chinatowns and other traditional urban ethnic neighborhoods remain a magnet for immigrants with lower education, skill and language levels who can more easily find entry-level work there. Some are also developing as local tourism destinations.

It’s long been a complaint among Chinese friends who visit North America that the quality of Chinese restaurant food available there is generally awful. If you ask the restaurateurs, their excuse is that non-Chinese customers don’t appreciate genuine Chinese cooking, so they have changed the menu to suit local tastes.

To the extent that you could find good Chinese food in North America, it was traditionally in Chinatowns, although even then it was mainly Cantonese cuisine. The main exceptions were New York, Toronto, San Francisco, and Vancouver — offering a bigger and more diverse range of Chinese cuisines.

With the gradual demise of Chinatowns, finding good Chinese food has become more of a challenge. Not because it isn’t available, but because good Chinese restaurants are dispersed across a very wide range of urban and suburban neighborhoods.

As Chinatowns develop more income from tourism, let’s hope more smart entrepreneurs will seize the opportunity to offer genuine Chinese regional cuisines. Speaking as a convert, I am confident non-Chinese will accept and enjoy the real thing if given the chance.