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中国：世界最大的移民输出国 据《国际移民报告》统计，2012年中国已成为世界最大的海外移民输出国，共有超过15万名大陆居民在这一年获取了外国国籍。 其中，移民美国的人数超过87,000人，另外各有大约30,000人分别选择了移民加拿大和澳大利亚。 此报告由中国与全球化研究中心及北京理工大学法学院联合发表，是中国第一部年度移民报告。 报告指出，更好的子女教育机会、污染防控和政治环境是促使中国富裕阶层寻求海外身份和居留权的主因。 贝恩咨询公司和招商银行2011年也发表过一份类似的报告，其中显示有80%左右的中国移民都表示，更好的教育机会是他们移民海外的首要原因。 大多数移民都选择了英语国家。在很多中国人看来，事业成功与个人英语水平的高低密不可分。 2013年1月15日，《南华早报》在题为“国际学校市场扩大”的报道中称，中国内地现有国际学校338所。其中上海最多，共有91所，其后依次是北京（77所）、深圳（16所）、成都（15所）。这还不包括香港和澳门，香港共有43所国际学校，澳门也有一些。 随着这类学校发展壮大，似乎也为那些打算让孩子通过学习国际课程，以便为将来去国外上大学打好基础的家长提供了更多选择。 我常听久居中国的当地和外国朋友说，除了子女教育以外，很多“跑路者”也在为自己的财富寻找更为安全和可靠的司法体系。很多推测都认为，其中某些（或大多数）人都是贪官，希望能 “在警方出现前跑路”，特别是在新一代中国领导人强调反腐的形势下。 有一点可以肯定：今年对移民目的地的选择与投奔个税低的国家无关。 资本外逃和人才流失才是真正的担忧，两者虽有不同，但也有些重叠。根据前文提到的报告，2010年的全球移民总数约为214,000,000人，听起来大得惊人。 假如这个数字是真实的，那中国移民海外的人数只是九牛一毛。但另一方面，它也揭示出至少在经济上算是成功的人士看待祖国的未来以及他们子女前景的角度。 这可能才是大多数人的担忧所在。2012年中国的不确定因素和民众焦虑感异于往常。这在去年很多国家由于经济和政治因素都很普遍，但中国却有它的国情特征。 去年下半年，我发现在中国的朋友们普遍都比较悲观和愤世。对空气污染和食品安全的担忧自然是原因之一，但他们的忧虑广度和深度已远远超出了健康问题的范畴。 春节将近，我感觉身边的人表现出更多的积极和乐观，但还有很多关于政策导向的问题尚待解答。虽然某种程度上这是任何一个领导层更迭年的常态，但由于关系到整体的改革大业，所以确实是处在历史的交叉路口。 我并不觉得15万大陆居民取得外国护照是件大事，也不认为这会对更宏伟的计划产生什么警示作用。 如果由此能造就出大批教育良好、有国际背景的年轻中国人，反倒是件好事。 财富带来更多选择的机会，一夜暴富可能会让人兴起“外国的月亮比较圆”的幻想，但结果却并不一定如此。 我的亲身经历告诉我，当你问别人——无论是中国人还是外国人——为什么要拿别国护照时，一般听到的回答都不见得是真的。 最近一位有钱的美国朋友告诉我，他刚放弃了美国护照。他说他对美国的政策和发展不再抱任何幻想，所以才决定放弃。 我丝毫不怀疑他焦虑的真实性，但他没有提这本新护照能让他比当美国人少交多一半的个税，还可以享受其他一系列低税率、简单税则和连带福利。 换言之，长期大量地节省个人财务开支才是他这一决定的自然结果。这本身并没有错，但即使是在朋友之间，他也对此有所隐晦。 一方面这是人性使然，但另一方面也说明不同的人看待国籍和金钱的方式不同。
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China: World's Largest Source of Immigrants China was the world's largest source of outbound immigrants in 2012, with more than 150,000 mainlanders obtaining overseas citizenship, according to the International Migration Report. More than 87,000 emigrated to the U.S., with roughly 30,000 choosing Canada and about the same number opting for Australia. The report, the first of its kind, was issued by the Centre for China and Globalisation, and the Beijing Institute of Technology's law school. Its authors pointed out that better educational opportunities for their children, as well as pollution and the political environment were among the main drivers for wealthier Chinese seeking overseas passports and residence. A similar observation was made in a 2011 report jointly released by Bain & Company and China Merchants Bank, which said that some 80% of outbound immigrants cited better education opportunities as their top reason for emigrating. The vast majority of the emigrants chose English-speaking countries. English language ability is closely correlated with career success in the minds of most Chinese people. According to the South China Morning Post, "Growing Market for International Schools" (January 15, 2013), the Chinese mainland now has 338 international schools. Shanghai leads the way with 91, followed by Beijing (77), Shenzhen (16), Chengdu (15), and so on. This doesn't count Hong Kong, which has 43 international schools, or Macau, which has several as well. As these schools mature, they seem likely to provide a viable alternative to parents whose primary aim is to seek a more international curriculum for their children and prepare them for overseas studies at the tertiary level. The common chatter I hear among Chinese and foreign friends in China is that apart from better education for their kids, many of these émigrés are seeking safer and more secure jurisdictions for their wealth. It's widely assumed that some (or many) of them are corrupt officials wishing to stay "one step ahead of the sheriff," especially as the new Chinese leadership has been talking about stepped up anti-corruption efforts. One thing is for sure: the choice of destinations for this year's emigrating class was not driven by a search for lower personal income tax rates. Capital flight and brain drain are valid concerns, for different but somewhat overlapping reasons. According to the same report, total global migration in 2010 was somewhere in the range of 214 million people, which sounds a staggeringly large number. If this is an accurate number, then China's outbound migration seems a drop in the bucket. On the other hand, it says something about how relatively successful people, at least as measured in economic terms, perceive the future prospects of their homeland for themselves and their offspring. That is probably the theme most people find of concern. The year 2012 in China featured a very unusual degree of uncertainty and angst. That was true in many countries last year for economic as well as political reasons, but in China it took place with special Chinese characteristics. By the second half of the year, I detected a high level of pessimism and cynicism among friends I spoke with in China. Naturally, concerns about air pollution and food safety were part of the mix, but the scope of their concerns was wider and deeper than health issues. As we approach the Lunar New Year, I sense more of an upbeat and optimistic spirit among people I talk with, although a host of questions about policy directions are still waiting to be answered. To some extent that's typical of any major leadership transition year, although this is more of a historic crossroads with regards to a whole range of important reform issues. I don't actually think 150,000 mainlanders obtaining foreign passports is great cause for alarm in the greater scheme of things. To the extent that it produces a larger cohort of well-educated, globally aware young Chinese people, it's a positive development. With wealth comes a range of choices, and sudden wealth may be accompanied by a naïve sense that the grass is greener on the other side of the hill. In the end, it may or may not be. One thing I know from personal experience, however: when you ask someone -- Chinese or otherwise -- why they obtained a foreign passport, you shouldn't necessarily expect a completely honest answer. Recently a wealthy American friend told me he had given up his US passport. He cited a list of his disillusionment with various US policies and developments as the main factor behind his decision. I don't doubt those frustrations are real, but what he didn't mention was that the personal income tax rate associated with his new passport is less than half that of the U.S., plus he will enjoy a whole range of other lower tax rates, simpler tax policies and related benefits. In other words, a huge long-term financial savings was an outcome of his passport-changing decision. Nothing wrong with that per se, but even in explaining that decision to a friend he chose not to mention that part of the picture. That's human nature, on the one hand. On the other, it also illustrates that different people view nationality, and money, in different ways. |
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