酒庄经济学 / Vineyard Economics

酒庄经济学

香港著名商业专栏作家——《南华早报》（SCMP）的汤姆•霍兰德近日指出，近来香港高端红酒拍卖会的酒价一路走低，可能是经济放缓的又一重要标志。

霍兰德表示已有调查数据显示，大陆市场红酒价格的走势与地产价格息息相关。他还援引德意志银行（Deutche Bank）（亚洲股票投资策略主管）埃杰卡普尔的话说：“葡萄酒价格是实时衡量中国流动性过剩的绝佳指标。”

这种势头可能会对中国经济造成重大影响，但至少能让红酒爱好者和首次购房者享受到更加实惠的价格。

同时，澳大利亚国内的报告显示，一股新的趋势正在日益加强。目前，中国买家除在拍卖会上入手高端葡萄酒外，还开始整体抢购澳大利亚的酒庄。

据澳洲地产中介透露，2011年，中国买家成群结队前往猎人谷（Hunter Valley），寻求收购顶级酒庄的机会，且这种势头有增无减。

这股热潮已不再拘泥于对美酒的热爱。澳大利亚向中国出口的葡萄酒无论在数量还是市值上都仅次于法国，其中大部分是以自有品牌批发的形式销往中国。

希望中国这种以批发为主的葡萄酒贸易能尽快让位于更正常、更健康的交易方式。

考虑到近年出现的重大食品安全事件，从牛奶到食用油等大量食品无一幸免，要想中国消费者转变观念，花大价钱购买在本地勾兑及装瓶的进口酒绝非一日之功。

同时这也解释了为什么中国境内及周边国家的机场免税店红酒销售异常火爆。

我偶然听到一位从香港去北京的大陆乘客跟朋友说：“我从免税店买这两瓶酒不是为了图便宜，而是相信它们是真货。”

希望中国从事葡萄酒产业，无论是酒庄还是成品酒的新投资者能把握时机，打造优势品牌，争取中国（及其他）消费者的信任。这才是葡萄酒行业的终极目标。

Vineyard Economics

A leading business columnist in Hong Kong, SCMP's Tom Holland, recently pointed out that the recent slide in wine prices at a series of premium wine auctions in Hong Kong may be another leading indicator of a slowing economy.

He cites research data which indicates a close correlation between wine price trends and property price trends on the Chinese mainland, and quotes Deutche Bank's Ajay Kapur as saying "Fine wine prices are an excellent real-time indicator of excess liquidity in China."

Apart from potentially serious implications of all this for the Chinese economy, at least lovers of fine wines and those looking for a first-time home purchase may be in for some more affordable prices.

In the meantime, reports from Australia suggest a new trend gaining momentum. Instead of just focusing on buying premium grade wines at auction, Chinese buyers are now snapping up whole vineyards in Australia.

According to real estate brokers in Australia, delegations of potential Chinese seeking to acquire prime Hunter Valley vineyards surged in 2011, and are still going strong.

This trend is based on more than the romance associated with good wine. Australian wine exports to China are second only to France in terms of volume as well as value. A large share of Australian wine exports to China is sold wholesale, under private label.

One hopes that the day will come when the dominance of this wholesale part of China's wine trade will give way to a more normal, healthy pattern.

Given serious food safety scandals in recent years with everything from milk to cooking oil and a host of other food products, it's asking a leap of faith for Chinese consumers to spend big bucks on a bottle of fine wine which was imported, blended and bottled locally. It's not likely to happen any time soon.

Meanwhile, that explains why wine business at the Duty Free Shops at airports in and around China is flourishing.

As I overheard one mainland passenger en route to Beijing from Hong Kong say to his friends: "I bought these two bottles of wine at DFS not because they're cheaper here, but because I have confidence they're the real thing."

Hopefully some of China's new investors in the business of producing fine wines from the vineyard through to the table will pick up on the opportunity to develop strong brands which earn the trust of Chinese (and other) consumers. That's where the ultimate big opportunity is in the business of wines.