Making predictions for the year ahead is always a hazardous business, by its nature dependent on the good will of readers, not to mention short memories.

    Stuff happens that confounds even the most imaginative forecasts. Predicting that Mary Barra was headed for the CEO job at GM (GM, Fortune 500) was relatively pothole-free, although the December timing took most people by surprise.

    But who would have guessed that one of Detroit's Rust Belt executives, Ford's Alan Mulally, would emerge as the leading candidate to run tech giant Microsoft (MSFT,Fortune 500) -- especially after all the trouble Ford (F, Fortune 500) has had integrating Microsoft technology in its MyTouch instrument panel control system?

    With those caveats in mind, here are some guesses about what awaits MotorWorld in the year ahead -- some serious, others in an "anything can happen" spirit.

    给来年做预测总是件冒险的事，因为它本质上是建立在读者的美好意愿上，而更要命的是，读者们往往又是健忘的。

    有时候，事情的发展甚至会超出最富想象力的预测。预测玛丽•芭拉将继任通用汽车（GM）的首席执行官相对而言难度不大，尽管12月份爆出这一消息的时机出乎了大多数人的意料。

    但是谁能想到底特律“铁锈地带”（指从前工业繁盛，今已衰落的一些地区——译注）的高管之一，福特（Ford）的艾伦•穆拉利会成为科技巨头微软（Microsoft）的领袖候选人？尤其是福特在MyTouch仪表盘的控制系统上采用微软技术引发一系列麻烦之后。

    我们不妨把这些告诫谨记于心，然后再来预测一下汽车界在接下来一年中将会发生的事件——有一些是认真严肃的判断，另一些则本着“一切皆有可能”的精神。

    The rebound continues

    Car and truck sales will grow to 16.4 million in 2014, up from 15.5 million in 2013, according to forecasts by Edmunds.com. That would be the most vehicles sold since 2006, but lower than the number sold annually between 2002 and 2005.

    汽车销量继续反弹

    根据汽车网站Edmunds.com的预测，美国的汽车销量将从2013年的1550万辆提高到2014年的1640万辆，达到2006年以来汽车销量的最高峰。不过这个数字仍将低于2002至2005年的年销售量。

    Cheaper fuel

    Gasoline prices will decline to an average of $3.43 per gallon, say various sources, thanks to higher production and lower demand. Consumers will have even less incentive to buy more fuel-efficient vehicles, forcing the Obama Administration to start moving in the goalposts on its 54.5 mpg fuel economy standard for 2025.

    燃油价格走低

    多个消息源表示，由于原油产量增加，市场需求下降，油价将会跌至平均每加仑3.43美元。消费者没有兴趣购买燃油效率更高的汽车，这将迫使奥巴马政府出台政令，要求在2025年将燃油经济性标准提高到每加仑54.5英里。

    From Motown to Microsoft

    Alan Mulally moves back to Seattle from Dearborn, reviving old jokes about what would happen to automobiles if Microsoft made them: "You would have to buy a new car every time they repainted the center lines," or "Your car would crash twice a day for no particular reason," or "Your airbag system would ask, 'Are you sure?' before deploying."   

    “微软造汽车”的笑话再次流行

    艾伦•穆拉利从迪尔伯恩来到了西雅图，这让“假如微软开始制造汽车，世界将会怎样”的老笑话再次流行起来：“每次他们重新画了中线，你就得买辆新车，”或者“你的车每天会莫名其妙地瘫痪两次，”或者“你的安全气囊在起作用前，会让你点‘确认’。”   

    A clean sweep

    General Motors sweeps 2014 North American Car and Truck of the Year awards for "outstanding innovation, design, safety, handling, driver satisfaction, and value" with the Cadillac CTS (above) and Chevrolet Silverado. Though it is not included in the criteria, GM could also win for "most improved."   

    通用汽车有望横扫各项大奖

    通用汽车将凭借卡迪拉克CTS（Cadillac CTS，上图）和雪佛兰西尔维拉多（Chevrolet Silverado）两款车型“杰出的创意、设计、安全性、操控性、驾驶员满意度和价值”赢得2014年北美最佳汽车（North American Car）和年度国际卡车（Truck of the Year）奖。通用汽车也有资格赢得“最快进步奖”，尽管这个实际上奖项并不存在。

    Her work cut out for her

    New GM CEO Mary Barra spends her first six months in office saying "no" to appearances with Ginni Rometty, Hillary Clinton, and Meryl Streep; keynote speeches at women's summits; and suggestions from diehard car buffs that GM build a new electric car; revive Oldsmobile, Pontiac, and Saturn; and bring back tailfins.

    她的工作很适合她

    新任通用汽车的首席执行官玛丽•芭拉将在办公室里花上前半年时间来“拒绝”：拒绝与吉尼•罗曼提、希拉里•克林顿和梅丽尔•斯特里普共同亮相；拒绝在女性峰会上发表主题演讲；拒绝接受顽固的汽车爱好者的建议去研发新款电动汽车；拒绝重塑奥兹莫比尔（Oldsmobile）、庞蒂克（Pontiac）和土星（Saturn）品牌；拒绝重新在汽车上采用尾翼设计。

    His work cut out for him

    CEO-in-waiting Mark Fields takes over after a year in which Ford recorded healthy retail sales, but the Lincoln MKZ stalled at the starting line, the Escape crossover was recalled for a seventh time, and GM shares outperformed Ford stock with a 42% to 17% gain.

    他的工作会很适合他

    福特（Ford）度过了零售销量健康发展的一年后，首席执行官的接班人马克•菲尔兹将会继任。但林肯MKZ（Lincoln MKZ）打一开始就步履蹒跚，翼虎（Escape）跨界车已经是第七次被召回，而通用汽车的股价增长42%，也超过了福特的17%。

    Off-duty cabs

    The future of Nissan's Taxi of Tomorrow for New York City is dealt a fatal blow by new mayor Bill de Blasio when he declines to overturn a hybrid motor regulation. His decision consigns riders to uncomfortable trips in the two-most-used yellow cabs: aging Ford Crown Victorias and discontinued Ford Escape hybrids.

    “未来出租车”恐将待岗

    由于纽约新任市长白思豪拒绝取消对混合动力汽车的监管，日产（Nissan）的“未来出租车”（Taxi of Tomorrow）前景堪忧。这个决定将使得乘客在出行时只得选择最常用的两种并不舒适的黄色出租车：老化的福特维多利亚皇冠（Ford Crown Victorias）和已经停产的福特翼虎混合动力车。

    Cadillac style

    Now that the 2014 Ford Mustang has been officially revealed, the motoring press turns its attention to uncovering details about the rumored V-8 powered Cadillac flagship sedan with over-the-top styling lifted from the Elmiraj concept car (above). Unmoved however, luxury car buyers in New York and California vow they will give up their Mercedes, BMWs, and Audis only when they are pried out of their cold dead hands.

    凯迪拉克风格未必能红

    官方已经公布了2014款福特野马（Ford Mustang）车型，因此汽车媒体将注意力转向了坊间传闻中的凯迪拉克旗舰车，该车将采用V-8发动机和火爆的Elmiraj概念车设计（上图）。然而纽约和加利福尼亚的豪华轿车买家不为所动，他们表示，除非把他们冰冷坚硬的手指掰开，否则绝不会放弃他们的梅赛德斯（Mercedes）、宝马（BMW）和奥迪（Audi）。

    Stay classy

    Dodge's breakout success using Ron Burgundy to promote the Durango SUV leads to copycat campaigns starring John McClane for the Chevrolet SS, Indiana Jones for Range Rover, and Ironman for the Toyota Prius, while Subaru threatens to bring back Crocodile Dundee.

    借助电影形象传承经典

    道奇（Dodge）利用电影《王牌播音员》中罗恩•勃艮第的形象来推销Durango SUV，取得了巨大的成功。于是模仿者闻风而动。《虎胆龙威》的主角约翰•麦克兰推销了雪佛兰SS（Chevrolet SS），《夺宝奇兵》的印第安纳•琼斯推销了路虎揽胜（Range Rover），《钢铁侠》推销了丰田普锐斯（Toyota Prius），而斯巴鲁（Subaru）也表示要翻拍《鳄鱼邓迪》。

    Musk's many suitors

    Ford is rumored to be buying Tesla. So are GM, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, and Chery. Elon Musk says he won't agree to a sale until Hell freezes over -- and then merges with Fiat-Chrysler.

    特斯拉会“从了谁”

    谣传福特将收购特斯拉（Tesla）。通用、大众（Volkswagen）、奔驰、丰田和奇瑞（Chery）也卷入了收购传闻。特斯拉创始人埃隆•穆斯克或许会表示，除非地狱结冰，否则他绝不同意收购——然后这家公司接着就和菲亚特-克莱斯勒（Fiat-Chrysler）合并了。

    Management moves: Renault-Nissan

    After overhauling his management teams in 2011, 2012, and 2013, Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn, 59, does so again in 2014 as he chases his impossible dream of 10% U.S. and 8% global market share.

    管理层大洗牌：雷诺日产

    59岁的雷诺日产（Renault-Nissan）首席执行官卡洛斯•戈恩在2011、2012和2013年都对管理团队进行了大幅调整。鉴于他的目标不可能完成：10%的美国市场占有率和8%的全球市场占有率，他在2014年恐怕又将故技重施。

    Management moves: Daimler

    With his contract due to expire at the end of 2015 and two ambitious engineers jousting to succeed him, Daimler and Mercedes-Benz boss Dieter Zetsche, 60, starts work on his memoir, The Chrysler Years: 2000-2006.

    管理层大洗牌：戴姆勒

    戴姆勒和梅赛德斯-奔驰的老板蔡澈现年60岁，他的合约将于2015年底终止，两位雄心勃勃的工程师正在争夺继位权。他或许会开始撰写自己的回忆录《克莱斯勒时代：2000-2006》。

    Management moves: Volkswagen

    After acquiring Lamborghini, Porsche, and Ducati, Ferdinand Piech, chairman of the Volkswagen Group, 76, solidifies his legacy as an industry genius by buying Alfa Romeo from Fiat and merging its operations with Ducati, the motorbike maker he acquired in 2012.

    管理层大洗牌：大众汽车

    完成了兰博基尼（Lamborghini）、保时捷（Porsche）和杜卡迪（Ducati）的收购后，76岁的大众集团董事会主席费迪南德•皮耶希或许会从菲亚特（Fiat）手中买下阿尔法罗密欧（Alfa Romeo），然后把它与2012年收购的摩托车制造商杜卡迪合并，以一个业界天才的身份给自己的遗产上再添一笔。

    China stalls out again

    Recall this Fox News headline from May 12, 2009: REPORT: GM TO SELL CHINESE CARS IN THE U.S. The story references a leaked report that GM planned to sell nearly 18,000 Chinese-made vehicles in America in 2011, with that number rising to over 50,000 by 2014. Well, no. GM didn't sell any cars made in China in 2011, 2012, or 2013, and safety and quality standards mean that no Chinese cars by any manufacturer -- American, European, or Chinese -- will be coming to the U.S. in 2014 either.

    中国继续无缘美国市场

    回忆一下2009年5月12日《福克斯新闻》（Fox News）的一个新闻标题：《报道：通用即将在美出售中国汽车》。文中引用了一份泄密报告，称通用汽车计划于2011年在美国出售近1.8万辆中国制造的汽车，而这个数字将于2014年上升到5万辆。好吧，不可能发生这种事。通用在2011、2012和2013年未出售过任何一辆中国制造的汽车。美国的安全和质量标准决定了所有厂商的中国车都无法在2014年进入美国市场——无论制造商是来自美国、欧洲还是中国。（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    译者：项航