凯瑟琳•霍珀是我最近遇到的非常迷人的一位创业者。她的初创企业黑色雨伞（Black Umbrella）主要业务是帮助人们针对洪水、飓风、核大战和我们可能担忧的其他灾难，做好充分准备。霍珀对灾难有切身体会：她的未婚夫安德鲁•麦道夫的父亲伯纳德•麦道夫，是美国最臭名昭著的“庞氏骗局”的始作俑者。伯纳德•麦道夫（也是安德鲁•麦道夫的老板）的骗局被揭穿后，安德鲁•麦道夫的职业生涯从此一蹶不振。

    去年三月，我曾在《财富》杂志上报道过霍珀。上周，飓风“桑迪”席卷美国东海岸，我通过电子邮件联系霍珀，问她从此次风暴中是否学到了什么。她认为，“桑迪”让自己确信，我们正面临一种新的常态，最好做好准备。

    为下一场风暴做好准备：黑色雨伞创始人兼总裁凯瑟琳•霍珀给您的建议

    周一，东海岸大部分居民的生活总算是恢复了正常。孩子们重新回到了学校。上班族开始乘坐公共交通去上班。经受住超级风暴“桑迪”的袭击，许多房屋业主们终于松了一口气。但“常态感”作为此次风暴的一个遗留影响会让民众产生大量的疑问，怀疑这种级别的突发情况是不是已经属于一种“新的常态”。

    从科学的角度来看，我认为这确实会成为一种常态。据联合国（the United Nations）统计，1975至2008年期间爆发的10次最致命的自然灾害中，有一半发生在2002年以后。大型风暴的数量在不断增加。因此，为潜在的大灾难做好准备，正是这种“新常态”的一部分。

    既然如此，最重要的问题是：如何才能做好最充分的准备？

    对于许多美国人来说，答案就是提前采购。上周一晚上，我在市区的公寓断电，当时我很高兴自己已经花154美元从亚马逊（Amazon.com）买了一台Duracell Powerpack 600电源组。平时，我把这个32磅的应急电源放在车里，但它在家里的作用同样明显，可以给手机、iPad和电脑充电。

    我买的最便宜、却最有用的一件工具是花30美元购买的浴缸应急储水器WaterBob，它可存储100加仑水。这款产品甚至配有一个水泵，可以轻松从中抽水用于饮用、洗澡和洗漱。

    此外，SureFire E2D战术防身手电可以让我不用在黑灯瞎火中爬22层楼梯（如果遇到不法之徒，还可以用来防身）。

    我们该如何针对不确定的灾难做好充分的准备？答案不止购买工具这么简单。作为一名应急准备专业人员，我经常提到策略的重要性。这次风暴中，我使用了一些策略（或者有些情况没有使用，结果给我带来了损害），让我认识到那些对我们的生存和舒适性最有用的措施。

    我做过的最明智的事情是：尽量提前考虑。周一早上，我把车开出车库，加满油，然后把它停在靠近我家的大街上。我在家里存满了不容易腐坏的食物。我扔掉了所有垃圾。我还在iPad里面下载了许多最新上映的儿童电影。

    Catherine Hooper is one of the more intriguing entrepreneurs I've met recently. Her startup, Black Umbrella, provides services to help people prepare for floods, hurricanes, nuclear war and pretty much any other disaster we might fear. Hooper knows disasters: She is the fiance of Andrew Madoff, Bernie Madoff's son whose career collapsed when his dad (who was his employer) was discovered to be the world's greatest Ponzi schemer. I profiled Hooper in Fortune last March. Last week, when Sandy blew up the East Coast, I emailed her and asked if she learned anything from the storm. She did. Sandy convinced Hooper that we're confronting a new normal and we had better be prepare for it.

    Prepping for the next storm: An entrepreneur's advice by Catherine Hooper, founder and President, Black Umbrella

    For most East Coast residents, life officially returned to normal on Monday. Children went back to school. Commuters returned to work, using mass transit. Many homeowners breathed sighs of relief at having weathered Superstorm Sandy. But as a sense of normalcy returns, questions abound about whether emergencies of this magnitude are part of "the new normal."

    Based on science, I believe that they are. According to the United Nations, half of the 10 deadliest disasters between 1975 and 2008 occurred after 2002. Big storms are on the rise. And preparing for potential catastrophes is part the new normal.

    That said, the most important question is: What's the best way to prepare?

    For a lot of Americans, the answer is to buy stuff. When we lost power in my downtown apartment last Monday night, I was very happy to have bought a Duracell Powerpack 600 for $154 on Amazon.com (AMZN). Normally, I keep this 32-pound emergency power source in the car, but it works just as well at home to keep mobile phones, iPads, and computers charged.

    On the cheaper end, my most useful purchase turned out to be the WaterBob, a $30 bathtub liner that safely stores 100 gallons of water. It even has a pump to make getting the water out for drinking, bathing, and sanitation very simple.

    Meanwhile, my SureFire E2D executive defender flashlight lit my way up 22 flights of stairs (and would have come in handy if I had run into unwanted company).

    But the answer to how we can best prepare for uncertainty is about more than the tools. As an emergency preparedness professional, I frequently talk about the importance of tactics. As I used them during the storm (or didn't, to my detriment), I became aware of what steps are most useful to our survival and comfort.

    The smartest thing I managed to do: Think ahead as much as possible. On Monday morning, I got the car out of my garage, filled it with gas, and parked it on the street near my building. I stocked the house with non-perishable food. I took out all of the garbage. And I downloaded several new kids' movies to my iPad.

    周二一早醒来，我们发现仍然没有通电。于是，我通过发电机冲了咖啡，用WaterBob中存的水冲马桶，还给一家连锁酒店打电话，在纽约预订了一个房间，就在新出现的SoPo（“South of Power”的简称）的北部。

    但我犯了第一个大错误。我按照每晚约200美元的价格订了一个房间，但只订了两个晚上，因为我认为到周四，一切就能恢复正常。

    结果，到了周四还是没有改观。我爬了22层黑漆漆的楼梯，回到断电的公寓去多取一些衣服和应急物品，还有女儿的宠物鼠。结果过了周四，酒店已经客满。整个纽约市唯一还有房间的地方是西30街的一家寒酸的低级酒店，而且每晚房费高达600美元。

    我为什么不提前预订10个晚上，等到电力恢复之后再取消呢？

    答案就是，我认为情况没有这么糟糕。

    这是我们面临“新常态”时所犯的最大的错误。我们都会低估情况的严重程度。我们都认为下次断电不会比这一次更糟糕，不会再发生一次恐怖袭击，不会有网络战，黄石火山（怀俄明州所谓的黄石超级火山）不会爆发，也从没想过西班牙加纳利群岛的活火山维亚火山崩塌会引发一场巨大的海啸。

    紧急服务人员的努力让东海岸居民在短时间内就恢复了正常生活，证明我们有能力、也有足够的复原能力来应对危机。然而，我们所见证的那些损失和悲剧同时也说明：面对一种新常态，如果我们能未雨绸缪，做好更充分的准备，未来应对灾难时就会更加从容。

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    When we woke on Tuesday morning to the power still on the blink, I made coffee with my generator, flushed the toilets with water from the WaterBob, and called a hotel chain to book a room in New York north of the newly christened SoPo ("South of Power").

    And I made my first major mistake. I took a room for around $200 a night for two nights, assuming we would be fine by Thursday.

    We were not fine by Thursday. As I climbed up those 22 darkened flights of stairs to our powerless apartment to retrieve more clothes and emergency supplies and my daughter's pet mouse, the hotel was unavailable past Thursday. The only place with rooms in New York City, a crummy dive in the far West 30s, was asking $600 a night.

    Why hadn't I booked the room for 10 nights and cancelled when power returned?

    The answer is, I didn't think it would be that bad.

    That's the biggest mistake we are all making during our new normal. We don't think it will be that bad. We don't think that the next time the power goes out, it could be even worse. We don't think that there could be another terrorist attack, let alone a cyber war, an eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera—the so-called Yellowstone Supervolcano in Wyoming--or a mega-tsunami triggered by the collapse of Cumbre Vieja, an active volcanic ridge on Spain's Canary Islands.

    The massive and back-breaking efforts by emergency service workers, who got life back to near normal across the East coast in a short time, showed us that we are capable and resilient enough to deal with crises. But the loss and heartbreak we've seen also revealed something: The more we can anticipate and prepare for a new normal, the better off we'll be.