为了吸引潜在投资者，Facebook首席运营官雪莉•桑德伯格在该公司的首次公开募股路演视频中发表了振聋发聩的演说词：“在美国，Facebook网站上的每一天都像是收视率最高的电视节目——《美国偶像》（American Idol）的总决赛，而且，我们的用户数量还是它的两倍。”这种自夸极具冲击力。但事实证明，桑德伯格的此番讲话还是相当保守的。在美国和加拿大每天有1.88亿用户登录使用Facebook，这个数字实际上相当于《美国偶像》总决赛收视率的四到五倍，确实不是吹牛皮。

    然而，桑德伯格的说法也凸显了一个问题。据业内人士估计，美国偶像的赛季压轴带来了超过4,000万美元的广告收入。而去年，拿Facebook的典型一天来说，仅仅收入560万美元。因此，保守计算，在福克斯（Fox）电视台举办的这档节目中，每一双盯着参赛者们在舞台上假意哭泣的眼球所带来的利润超过Facebook用户在网站上点击查看亲戚朋友是否安好而替该公司所带来盈利的至少30倍。Facebook不只是落后于电视。它高达9亿的用户每人每年只为公司带来略高于4美元的收入。比较而言，谷歌（Google）的用户每人每年为公司创造的毛利至少超过它的7倍。也就是说，Facebook的高额利润只是来自于它的巨大规模，而并不意味着它是一家特别高效的广告媒体。

    当Facebook力图证明它有能力成为一家市值突破1,000亿美元并能维持这一高位的公司时，它实际上面临着巨大的挑战。首先，这家社交网络服务公司必须找到一种方式提高其广告业务的增长速度。该公司最新财季的广告收入增速下滑到45%，几乎只有去年同期的一半。同时，公司现在还面临用户从网站快速转向移动设备的不利局面，在移动领域它的商业化还处在起步阶段。总之 对于它所做出的承诺，对于它拥有的彻底改变各种行业的潜力，Facebook必须向广告客户和投资者们证明它有能力提供与其拥有的庞大社交网络服务相匹配的全球性广告业务。目前，Facebook网络社交平台已经成为约占全球七分之一人口日常生活的一部分。

    可以肯定的是，Facebook是一个卓越的社交枢纽，而它作为广告媒体没那么光彩夺目的原因在于设计。创始人扎克伯格总是不遗余力地打造Facebook这个平台，有时甚至不惜牺牲公司的广告业务。但是现在Facebook上市在即，以后他的团队必须向投资者提交令人满意的财务报表，就这一点而言他们会面临巨大压力。因此，他应该着眼于以下三个方面：

第一：广告业务

    Facebook广告已经成为各种在线陈列广告攻势的筹码，但公司必须向这些广告客户们证明其广告位会提供丰厚的回报，这样才能让其广告业务由客户的尝试性购买转变为一大批企业广告业务策略的基石。

    去年，Facebook的广告业务推广策略已经发生了变化。现在公司不仅仅是派销售人员带着广告清单出去兜售，而是开始聘请怀揣MBA学历并且在业内拥有丰富经验、受广告商青睐的人士担任公司的“公关经理”。这些人对他们的客户不叫“广告客户”，而是称作“合作伙伴”。他们建议大型公司，比如宝洁（Procter & Gamble），不要只盯着社交网站上的消费者“喜好”，而是要多留意消费者们在Facebook上说的话、做的事哪些与自己的品牌相关，也就是说消费者与品牌之间发生的故事。Facebook相信，如果各大品牌能够在粉丝页面和应用上发起这样的讨论，宝洁这样的公司就会顺理成章地购买更多的广告服务。

    In Facebook's video IPO roadshow, Sheryl Sandberg, the company's chief operating officer, delivers a powerful line intended to impress potential investors: "In the United States, every day on Facebook is like the season-finale of American Idol -- the most popular show on television -- times two." It's an impactful boast, but as it turns out, Sandberg is playing it pretty safe. Every day, 188 million people log into Facebook in the U.S. and Canada. That's actually four to five times the number who tuned in to the season finale of American Idol. Wow, indeed.

    And yet, Sandberg's boast also highlights a problem. American Idol's season finale brought in more than $40 million in advertising, according to industry estimates. On a typical day last year, Facebook (FB) took in just $5.6 million or so in the U.S. So conservatively, each set of eyeballs trained on the mewling of contestants on Fox is worth at least 30 times more than those checking in with friends and family on Facebook. And it's not just television that Facebook lags behind. Every one of its 900 million users generates a little more than $4 in revenue for Facebook in a year. By comparison, Google (GOOG) grosses at least 7 times more from each one of its users. In other words, Facebook makes gobs of money because of its massive reach, not because it is a particularly effective advertising medium.

    As Facebook seeks to justify and sustain a mammoth valuation that seems certain to top $100 billion, it faces enormous challenges. First and foremost, the social networking service must find a way to accelerate the growth of its advertising business, which slowed to 45% in the most recent quarter from nearly twice that rate the year before. And it must do so in the face of headwinds from the rapid shift of users from the Web to mobile devices, where Facebook's monetization efforts are still nascent. In short, for all its promise and its potential to revolutionize entire industries, Facebook must prove to advertisers and investors that it can build a global ad business to match the power of a social networking product that has become a habit for nearly one of every seven people on the planet.

    To be sure, the fact that Facebook's advertising prowess lags behind its preeminence as a social hub is by design. Zuckerberg has always made the Facebook product his top priority, sometimes at the expense of the company's ad business. But now that Facebook will be a public company, his team will be under enormous pressure to deliver financial results that keep investors happy. Here are three things he should focus on to achieve that.

No. 1 Advertising

    Facebook ads have become table stakes for any online display advertising campaign, but as these ads move from experimental purchases to the cornerstone of many advertising strategies, Facebook must show to advertisers that these spots deliver significant returns.

    In the past year, Facebook's approach to advertising has changed. Now, rather than simply sending salespeople out to sell its ad inventory, Facebook has begun to hire MBA-carrying "relationship managers" with experience in the industries from which the advertisers hale. These folks call their clients "partners" instead of "advertisers" and encourage large bands like Procter & Gamble (PG) to stop chasing "Likes" and, instead, look at what people are actually saying and doing on Facebook that relates to them -- engagement. Facebook believes that if brands can jumpstart these conversations on fan pages and within apps they'll naturally buy more ads.

    Facebook在去年二月推出最新广告策略时还试图为此构思了新的语言。通过向Facebook付费，广告客户可以在Facebook用户的新闻推送服务中突出显示“广告软文”（Sponsored Stories）。具体来说，只有发布的消息来自用户已经关注的的好友或企业发布时，用户才会看到这些广告软文。听起来不错，但广告软文的效用还远未得到实践检验。事实上，一些品牌甚至已经开始全盘质疑在Facebook上打广告的价值。去年花费1,000万美元在Facebook上做广告的通用汽车（GM）已经决定停止在该平台上打广告，因为该公司的营销经理们没有看到他们所期望的广告效应。谷歌误打误撞收获了搜索营销的利器，而Facebook还没有找到自己的法宝。

第二：移动

    Facebook用户转投移动设备的速度已经超过该社交网络能够自如应付的水平。据互联网信息服务提供商康姆斯科（Comscore）称，目前，Facebook美国用户通过智能手机和平板电脑等移动设备使用Facebook服务的时间约为7.4小时/月，高于通过台式机登录该网站的时间（约6.5小时/月）。

    这对该公司构成了两大挑战。首先，由于手机屏幕较小，Facebook用户看到的广告数量下降。这种令人不安的趋势对Facebook的一些最重要的广告市场造成了异常严重的冲击。Facebook在最近提交给监管部门的文件中称，这种转变趋势在美国、巴西和印度等地发展得最快。

    其次，即便Facebook能够拿出解决方案，提供更多更好的移动广告，该公司在移动策略上仍然落后于竞争对手。风靡市场的智能手机搭载的仍然是苹果公司（Apple）和谷歌的操作系统软件。随着时间的推移，谷歌有可能实现自由社交平台Google+与其安卓手机和平板电脑之间超越Facebook的无缝集成，从而在赢得消费者方面获得优势。Google+是Facebook的竞争对手。在过去的几年中，扎克伯格曾试图与苹果结成更紧密的关系。据知情人士称，Facebook与苹果公司已举行多轮磋商。但双方还未能找到一个令人信服的方式进行合作；与此同时，苹果公司没有将Facebook集成至其移动软件，而是选择了Twitter。

    为了与竞争对手抗衡，Facebook一直在大举收购移动资产。最值得注意的是，Facebook最近同意以10亿美元收购照片共享应用开发商Instagram。Facebook将因此获得一个拥有大量用户的高增长产品，以及具有丰富手持设备设计经验的优秀程序员团队，后者或许更为重要。据最近监管机构备案，这笔交易预计要到今年晚些时候才能完成。

第三：中国

    我们不妨把中国称作Facebook的黑洞：虽然Facebook贵为世界上最大的社交网络，但截至目前它还没有在中国开展业务。中国约有5亿网民，用数量来衡量，是世界最大的互联网市场。在中国，约有一半网民是本土社交网络的活跃用户。对于Facebook来说，虽然中国是一个巨大的、有利可图的潜在市场，但是眼下可能仍然难以把握。

    Facebook attempted to coin new language for this when it launched its latest advertising strategy last February. Advertisers can pay Facebook to highlight "sponsored stories" in users' Newsfeeds. The idea is that users will only see these sponsored stories when they are posted by a friend or a business with which they've already chosen to connect. It sounds great, but the effectiveness of sponsored stories is far from proven. In fact, some brands are questioning the value of advertising on Facebook altogether. GM (GM), which last year spent $10 million with Facebook, decided to stop advertising on the platform because the company's marketing executives weren't seeing the impact they desired. Unlike Google, which stumbled on a magic formula with search marketing, Facebook has yet to find its silver bullet.

No. 2 Mobile

    Facebook's users are decamping to mobile devices faster than the social network can keep up. American Facebookers who use the service on both their desktops and on mobile apps are spending more time on their smartphones and tablets -- about 7.4 hours each month, according to Comscore (SCOR) -- than on the website itself -- about 6.5 hours each month.

    This poses two significant challenges for the company. First, mobile screens are small so Facebook users see fewer ads. This unsettling trend is disproportionately impacting some of Facebook's most important advertising markets. In recent regulatory filings, Facebook said the shift is happening fastest in places like the United States, Brazil and India.

    Second, even if Facebook can figure out how to serve up more and better mobile ads, the company lags behind its rivals on mobile strategy. Apple (AAPL) and Google make the operating software for the most popular smartphones on the market. It's possible that over time, Google could integrate its Facebook competitor, Google+, into its Android phones and tablets more seamlessly than Facebook, giving it an advantage with consumers. In the last couple years, Zuckerberg has attempted to forge closer ties with Apple. The companies have held multiple rounds of discussions, according to people with knowledge of the talks. But they have yet to find a compelling way to collaborate, and in the meantime, Apple has chosen to integrate Twitter, rather than Facebook, into its mobile software.

    To combat its rivals, Facebook has moved aggressively to acquire mobile assets. Most notably, Facebook recently agreed to purchase the photo-sharing app Instagram for $1 billion. The company will get a fast-growing product with tons of users and -- perhaps more importantly -- a pool of talented programmers experienced in designing for handheld devices. The sale isn't expected to close, according to recent regulatory filings, until later this year.

No. 3 China

    Call it Facebook's black hole: The world's biggest social network, as of now, has no presence in China. With some 500 million people online, China is the world's largest Internet market by number of users. About half of those users are active on locally grown social networks. It's a vast and potentially lucrative market for Facebook, but for the time being it's likely to remain elusive.

    马克•扎克伯格对中国的兴趣已经不是什么秘密。他一直在学习普通话，并多次在不同的场合造访中国。扎克伯格最近一次到访中国是在三月份，当时他与美籍华人女友普莉希拉•陈一起到上海旅游。据知情人士称，扎克伯格和公司高管们已经就进军中国市场的风险和回报展开过密集的内部讨论。并且，他还和包括搜索巨子百度（Baidu）在内的中国各大互联网公司进行过磋商，以期发掘成立合资企业的可能性。Facebook要想在中国开展业务，几乎肯定要与一家中资企业成立合资公司。

    据悉，扎克伯格还将目光瞄准了中国的优秀工程师人才。不过，据知情人士称，近几个月来，有关中国市场的内部讨论和对外磋商已经偃旗息鼓，Facebook高管都将注意力放到了上市上。Facebook在首次公开募股说明书中承认了一个不争的事实，即中国市场“存在显著的法律和监管复杂性”，但该公司将“继续评估进入中国的可行性”。

    眼下，Facebook的跨国扩张动作可能会集中在类似日本和韩国这样的国家（与当地对手勉力竞争）以及包括印度和巴西在内的新兴市场（已经取得重大进展但仍然有很大增长空间）。展望未来，扎克伯格执掌的Facebook无疑还会尝试制订中国策略，但策略是否能够成功仍然是个未知数。毕竟，关于Facebook是否能进入中国市场要由中国政府、而不是Facebook自己说了算。这使得中国成为投资者心目中的潜在红利，但其价值可能永远无法实现。投资社交和移动公司私人股权的社交互联网基金（Social Internet Fund）创始人娄克纳说：“我不会为中国因素支付任何溢价。”

    ——Alex Konrad也参与了本文的报道工作。

    译者：默默

    Zuckerberg's interest in China is no secret. He has been learning Mandarin and has visited the country on various occasions, most recently in March, when he traveled to Shanghai with his Chinese-American girlfriend, Priscilla Chan. Inside Facebook, Zuckerberg's has led intense discussions among senior management on the risks and rewards of going into the Chinese market, according to people familiar with the situation. And he has held discussions with various Chinese Internet companies, including search giant Baidu, to explore potential joint ventures, which would almost certainly be required for Facebook to be allowed to operate in the country.

    Zuckerberg is also said to be eyeing China as a source of talented engineers. In recent months, however, the internal and external discussions about China have died down as the attention of Facebook's senior brass has been focused on the I.P.O., the people familiar with the discussions said. In its I.P.O. prospectus, Facebook acknowledged the obvious, saying the Chinese market "has substantial legal and regulatory complexities," but that the company will "continue to evaluate entering China."

    For now, Facebook is likely to focus its international expansion efforts in countries like Japan and South Korea, where it is struggling to compete with local rivals, and emerging markets like India and Brazil, where Facebook has made significant inroads but has lots of room to grow. Down the line, Zuckerberg and Co. will no doubt try to formulate a China strategy. Whether it will ever pay off is an open question. After all, it's the Chinese government, not Facebook, that will have final say on whether Facebook can enter the market there. That leaves investors thinking of China as potential bonus whose value may never be realized. "I'm not paying anything for China," says Lou Kerner, founder of the Social Internet Fund, which invests in private shares of social and mobile companies.

    -- with reporting by Alex Konrad