一年多来，投资者一直对深陷危机的欧元区前景忧心忡忡。高危的欧元区外围经济体的债券收益率暴涨，说明投资者对希腊等国偿还巨额债务已不再抱有希望。随着欧洲危机慢慢向意大利等大国蔓延，收益率飙升，高危国家只能无奈寻求救助。而在另一端，德国的债券收益率已降至负值，这意味着投资者不仅愿意放弃投资收益，还愿意为资金的安全付出代价。

    不过，令人惊奇的是去年大部分时间里这样的恐慌情绪并未压低欧元。直到最近，欧元兑美元仍报于1.34美元——与这场危机爆发前的2007年水平相仿，仅略低于2011年年初时的水平。

    但现在，欧元汇率出乎意料的坚挺走势已开始动摇，分析人士预计2012年欧元汇率很可能要经受考验。须知2011年12月，欧洲央行（European Central Bank）已启动三年期贷款计划，首批向欧元区523家银行投放了6,432亿美元资金以支持放贷，并增加流动性。也许更为重要的是，欧元开始走软正值美国经济前景开始显著改善之际。

    2011年12月份，欧元兑美元下跌3.6%。欧元成为2011年表现最糟糕的主要货币，欧元兑美元收于一年以来的最低点，欧元兑日元收于十年来的低点。欧元下跌导致欧元空头头寸激增。美国商品期货交易委员会（U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission）的数据显示，截至2011年12月27日当周，空头（即投资者可通过标的证券价格下跌赚钱）头寸比多头头寸多出了127,900张合约。这个数字创下了一个新高，前一周这一数字为113,700张合约。

    紧随野村集团（Nomura Group）和其他公司之后，巴克莱（Barclays）也对欧元做出了负面预测。巴克莱预计未来六个月欧元可能跌至1.20美元。目前欧元为1.2779美元，此前一天则刚刚凭借反弹脱离16个月低点的1.26美元。

    巴克莱的北美外汇研究主管何塞•怀恩表示，令欧元承压的最直接因素是2012年欧洲经济增长前景恶化，而美国的前景则适度看好。他预计2012年美国经济将增长2.5%，而陷入困境的欧洲外围经济体（特别是希腊）可能遇到严重的偿债问题，因为欧元区经济预计将经历一定衰退，增速下降0.2%。

    周一，德国总理安格拉•默克尔和法国总统尼古拉•萨科奇在柏林会晤，商讨应对债务危机的欧元区计划。但希腊经济恶化可能令救助方案不再具有可行性，因此，会谈取得的任何进展都会蒙上一层阴影。

    怀恩称：“2011年9月份之前，欧洲的经济活动还相当强劲。”他补充说，经济增长前景下调的预测不仅适用于欧洲，同样也适用于美国、中国等其他主要国家。

    尽管如此，目前几乎无人预测事情会向最糟的方向发展——即欧元区全面解体。

    Investors have been unnerved for more than a year now about the future of the embattled euro zone. Bond yields for the zone's troubled peripheral countries soared, as investors lost faith that Greece and others would be able to pay back its huge debts. And as Europe's ongoing crisis seeped into bigger countries like Italy, yields skyrocketed, leaving the troubled nations to scramble for bailouts. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Germany's bond yields have now fallen below zero, meaning investors are not only willing to forgo returns on their money, but they will pay in order to keep it safe.

    Surprisingly, however, for most of last year, the panic couldn't bring the euro down. Up until recently, Europe's common currency traded at $1.34 against the dollar – roughly where it was in 2007 before the crisis unfolded and just shy of where it was at the start of 2011.

    But the euro's unexpected strength has begun to wane and analysts predict 2012 could very well test the currency's resilience. This follows the European Central Bank's move in December to allot $643.18 billion in the first batch of its 3-year loan program to 523 banks in the euro zone to support lending and expand liquidity. Perhaps more importantly, the declines in the euro come as the economic outlook in the U.S. has started to markedly improve.

    In December, the euro lost 3.6% against the dollar. It ended 2011 as the worst performing major currency, spiraling to a one-year low against the greenback and a 10-year low against the Japanese yen. The euro's drop has sparked a renewed surge in bets against the currency. In the week ending December 27, the number of short positions, whereby investors gain from a decline in prices, outnumbered long position by 127,900 contracts, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That's a record and up from 113,700 contacts the prior week.

    Barclays joins Nomura Group and other firms with a negative forecast for the euro. During the next six months, Barclays predicts the euro could fall to $1.20. Currently, the currency is trading at $1.2779 after an overnight bounce off of a 16-month low of $1.26.

    The most immediate factor putting downward pressure on the euro is Europe's deteriorating growth prospects for 2012 against a modestly better outlook for the U.S, says Jose Wynne, the bank's North America head of foreign exchange research. While he forecasts that the U.S. economy will grow 2.5% in 2012, Europe's troubled peripheral nations (especially Greece) could have a tough time repaying debts as the region is forecast to undergo a moderate recession with growth contracting 0.2%.

    On Monday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy met in Berlin to discuss the euro zone's plans to tackle the debt crisis. But worries that Greece's deteriorating economy could threaten the viability of its bailout package overshadowed any progress of the talks.

    "Before September economic activity was still pretty strong in Europe," says Wynne, adding that downward revisions for growth outlooks applied not just to Europe but other major countries such as the U.S. and China.

    Few are predicting the worst case scenario - that is, a full-blown break-up of the euro zone.

    但还是有些分析师并没有排除这种可能性。野村外汇策略师詹斯•诺德维格在1月份的报告中指出，解体可能有两种方式。第一种是逐步瓦解，缘由是希腊或葡萄牙、或者两国的政府部门都没能如期推行改革，无法满足欧盟（European Union）救助方案提出的要求。诺德维格指出，在这种情况下，欧元可能继续存在，只有几个小国会改用自己新的本国货币。

    第二种的可能性小一些（但也不是完全不可能），即一旦欧元区大国（比如意大利）违约，可能引发欧元区全面解体。届时，欧元将被废止，欧洲央行将解体，所有的欧元区国家都将改用新的本国货币或组建新的货币联盟，也就是说，发行新货币，设立新央行。

    “欧洲决策层一直表示会‘竭尽所能’拯救欧元，”诺德维格在1月份的报告中称。“但魔鬼已经逃出了瓶子，对各种解体情形的讨论也已经更加公开化。”

    现在的问题是可能出现的欧元区解体到底将会如何展开。

    But that doesn't mean some aren't ruling the possibility out. In a January report, Nomura foreign exchange strategist Jens Nordvig said a break-up could play out two ways. First, it could happen gradually, whereby a political setback in Greece and/or Portugal lead the countries to miss requirements demanded by the European Union of its rescue packages. In that case, Nordvig noted, the euro will likely remain in existence since only a few smaller countries would end up adopting their own new national currencies.

    The less likely scenario – albeit, not entirely implausible – is the case of a full-blown break-up in the event that larger euro zone economies such as Italy default. The euro would then cease to exist, the European Central Bank would be dissolved and all euro zone countries would convert to new national currencies or perhaps form new currency unions with new currencies and a new central bank.

    "European policymakers continue to argue that they will do 'what is needed' to save the euro," Nordvig noted in his January report. "But the genie is out of the bottle, and various break-up scenarios are now being discussed more openly."

    The question is how a potential break-up could unfold.