上周，随着交易员们开始将他们的经济视角从欧洲那些恣意挥霍的边缘经济体转到了欧洲核心经济体身上，法国债券的保险成本出现了大幅攀升。几个月来，法国一直在竭力试图拿出一个方案，希望能保住其让人垂涎的AAA评级，并让市场相信法国的经济状况良好。虽然法国的状况好于意大利，但显然不如其顶级信用评级显示的那么健康。法国清楚需要做些什么才能改善财政状况，但可能需要有一场像意大利那样的危机，法国才会最终痛下决心。

    上周随着意大利政坛震荡以及意大利最大的银行裕信银行（Unicredit）公布创纪录的亏损业绩，意大利占据了很多欧洲以外媒体的头条位置。但比起罗马，纽约和欧洲的很多交易员似乎对来自巴黎的消息更感兴趣。上周一，法国总理弗朗索瓦•菲永公布了一项备受期待的紧缩方案，希望藉此能保住法国让人羡慕的AAA信用评级，促进经济增长。

    然而，市场并不买账。伦敦的一些经纪人称，紧缩方案公布后法国债券的信贷违约掉期（CDS）息差反而跃升至创纪录的236个基点。这意味着如果一个持有1,000万欧元法国债券的投资者要保护自己免受主权债券违约的损失，需要每年支付多达236,000欧元。鉴于法国拥有完美的AAA信用评级，其债券理应被视为零风险，眼下这样的保险成本实在是太高了。

    CDS息差大涨可能让法国不少政界人士大感意外，因为他们一度认为自己提出的紧缩措施已经相当严厉。根据这项紧缩方案，法国公司税率将增加5%，服务类增值税税率从5.5%升至7%，颇有争议的法定退休年龄从60岁推迟至62岁的改革措施也将提前一年实施。方案还取消了一些税收减免措施和国家补助措施。

    菲永称，他希望紧缩方案2012年能实现预算节省约70亿欧元，2013年再节省116亿欧元。他预计到2016年底前，总计将节省650亿欧元。

增长放缓，税基缩水

    这个方案看似力度很大，但只要略微细看便知并没有什么。“节省”主要来自加税，而不是缩减庞大的福利支出。如此大幅加税很可能放缓法国业已乏力的经济增长。随着法国经济增长停滞，纳税基数亦然，任何可能获得的“节省”也无从谈起。

    The cost to insure French debt soared this week as traders started to shift their attention away from the economic health of Europe's more profligate periphery to that of its core members. France has been scrambling for months to come up with a plan to save its coveted triple-A credit rating and convince the markets that it is in fine economic shape. While the country is better off than Italy, it is certainly not as healthy as its perfect credit rating suggest. France knows what it needs to do to get its fiscal house in order, but it risks facing an Italian-like crisis to finally bite the bullet.

    Italy has dominated the headlines out of Europe this week as its government fell into chaos and its largest bank, Unicredit, reported a record loss. But many traders in New York and Europe seemed more interested in the news coming out of Paris than Rome. On Monday, French Prime Minister Francois Fillon revealed a much anticipated austerity package that was meant to save France's coveted triple-A credit rating and help spur growth.

    The market was not impressed. After the announcement, the cost to insure French debt using credit default swaps jumped to a record 236 basis points, according to brokers in the City of London. That meant it would cost as much as 236,000 euros per year for an investor holding 10 million euros of French bonds to protect themselves from a sovereign default. That's a considerable payout on debt that should ostensibly be considered risk free given the nation's perfect triple-A credit rating.

    The jump in CDS spreads probably shocked many French politicians who thought that the measures they had proposed were extremely tough. The plan would see corporate tax rates go up by 5%, while the value added tax on services would go up from 5.5% to 7%. It would bring forward by one year the implementation of a controversial plan to raise the retirement age in France from 60 to 62 years old. The plan also eliminated some tax deductions and state assistance.

    Fillion said he hoped the plan would bring about 7 billion euros in budget savings in 2012 and a further 11.6 billion euros in savings for 2013. In total, he said the plan would produce 65 billion euros in savings by 2016.

Slower growth, smaller tax base

    That might seem like a tough plan, but it looks pretty weak when one drills down a bit. The bulk of the "savings" in the plan come from tax hikes as opposed to cuts in the country's bloated welfare state. Such large tax increases will most likely slow France's already anemic economic growth rate. As the country's growth rate stalls, so will its tax base, negating any possible "savings" it might receive.

    法国的问题是它靠借钱过日子的时间太长了。虽然还不像意大利那么糟糕，但法国的负债水平相对于其经济产出也已很高了。法国政府总负债约为1.3万亿欧元，负债/GDP比率约83%。相比希腊（140%）、意大利（120%）之流，法国的负债/GDP比率仍相对较低，但对于一个拥有完美AAA评级的国家来说还是太高——远高于今夏刚刚失去AAA评级的美国。

    假如法国的经济增长前景强劲，这样的负债/GDP比率根本就不是问题，但如今的法国在这方面面临着严峻的挑战。法国一度强大的制造业近年已经开始走下坡路，导致法国进口的商业日益增多。曾几何时法国拥有巨额的贸易顺差，如今却背负着巨额贸易逆差。今年前6个月法国的贸易逆差高达375亿欧元。这个数字固然庞大，但真正麻烦的问题是其速长之快，因为这个数字较去年同期增长了36%。

    法国的劳动力成本高，似乎是出口下降背后的原因。德国人在欧元区内外的贸易中都挫败了法国人。法国人输在了两方面。首先，法国劳动力的竞争力降低。2000年，法国工人比德国工人的收入低8%，如今法国工人比德国工人收入高10%。其次，现在法国对德贸易每个月逆差约为10亿欧元，相比2004年完全掉了个，当时德国对法贸易每个月逆差数以10亿欧元计。

    法国经济到底怎么了？政府规定的每周35小时工作制自然是个问题，但情况要比这复杂得多。法国的政府支出水平在欧元区内最高，约占GDP的54%。如此高水平的政府支出是为了支撑法国优厚的福利体系，而资金来源则是负债和高税收。企业税负重导致法国商品十分昂贵，最终在国际市场上失去了竞争力。据法国最大的雇主协会MEDEF的数据显示，当今法国的总劳动成本有约一半用于支撑法国的福利体系，而与其相邻的德国这一比例仅为28%。

    市场原本指望法国终于能下定决心削减开支，大幅缩减社会保障。结果法国给出的方案却指望靠加税来解决问题。大幅削减政府开支、放宽劳动法对解决法国的财政困境很有帮助。这么做需要政府向该国强大的工会组织摊牌，然而，即使是保守的尼古拉•萨科齐总统眼下似乎也不愿这样做。

    上周三，法国债券的保险成本再度升至约255个基点。法国债券的收益率现已远高于4%， 相对于德国债券处于历史高位。如果法国在解决经济问题方面迟迟不动真格，法国的借贷成本将继续增长直到难以为继。这样的一场危机肯定会进一步让欧元的前景岌岌可危。

    France's problem is that it simply has been living beyond its means for way too long. While not as bad as Italy, France has a very high debt compared to its economic output. Its total government debt of around 1.3 trillion euros equates to a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 83%. That is relatively low in comparison to the likes of Greece, which is at 140%, and Italy, which is at 120%, but it is high for a country that has a perfect triple-A credit rating – much higher than the United States, which lost its triple-A rating earlier this summer.

    If France's economic growth prospects were strong, then its debt-to-GDP ratio wouldn't be an issue, but the country is facing some serious challenges on that front. France's once strong manufacturing sector has decayed in recent years causing it to import increasingly more goods. Where once the country ran large trade surpluses, it now runs large deficits. In the first six months of this year France had a trade deficit of 37.5 billion euros. While that's a large number, what's really troubling is how fast it has grown, up 36% compared to the same time last year.

    France's high labor costs seem to be behind the drop off in exports. The Germans have trounced the French in both internal and external eurozone trade. France is actually helping the Germans win in two ways. First, it has allowed its workforce to become less competitive. In 2000, French workers were paid 8% less than German workers. Now, French workers are paid 10% more than German workers. Second, France runs a trade deficit with Germany of around 1 billion euros a month. That is a complete reversal from 2004 when it was Germany that was running the billion-euro-a-month trade deficit with France.

    What has happened to the French economy? The 35-hour government mandated work week surely hasn't helped matters much, but it goes deeper. France has the highest level of government spending in the eurozone at around 54% of GDP. That high level of spending goes to support the generous French welfare state, which is funded through borrowing and high taxes. Those taxes are passed through businesses, making French goods very expensive and ultimately uncompetitive on the world market. Today, around half of the gross labor costs in France go to prop up the French welfare state, while it is just 28% in neighboring Germany, according to MEDEF, France's largest union of employers.

    The market was looking for France to finally announce plans to reduce its spending and force through meaningful cuts in its social safety net. Instead, it got a plan where France would try to tax its way out of its problems. Meaningful cuts in government spending, followed by liberalization of the nation's labor laws, will go a long way to solving France's fiscal dilemma. That would require a showdown with the country's powerful unions, something that not even conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy seems to have the stomach for at this point.

    The cost to insure French debt jumped again on Wednesday to around 255 basis points. Yields on French debt are now well above 4% and are at historic highs versus German bonds. Until France gets real about its economic issues, it will see its borrowing costs continue to increase until it becomes way too expensive to maintain. Such a crisis would definitely put the euro's future in peril.