每年汽车业都会出现新的不确定性，2012年也不例外。细节决定成败。随着美国经济逐渐向好，受压抑的需求得到增长，以及底特律三巨头扭亏为赢，汽车产业的生存已经不成问题。问题在于市场的构成：消费者究竟会购买大型皮卡还是小轿车？进口车还是美国本土货？汽油车还是电动车？

    在此仅列出2012年与汽车产业息息相关的10个问题，以及一些可能的答案：

1.底特律三巨头能否保住市场份额？

    2012车型年，底特律三巨头在美国国内所占的市场份额较为稳定，通用汽车（General Motors）和克莱斯勒（Chrysler）的市场占有率有所提高，只有福特的份额稍有下降。不过这个好消息可能只是暂时的，因为过去一年对于日本车商来说年景奇差。虽然美国市场回暖，但丰田（Toyota）和本田（Honda）在美国的销量都出现了下滑。不过其它进口品牌的市场份额一直在扩大。现代（Hyundai）和起亚（Kia）现在已成为美国市场上第6和第7大汽车品牌。同时雷克萨斯（Lexus）的销量也超过了别克（Buick）、凯迪拉克（Cadillac）和林肯（Lincoln）。日产（Nissan）制定了夺取美国市场占有率10%的目标，如果能够如愿以偿，届时日产将成为美国市场销量第4的品牌。大众汽车（Volkswagen）在美国的上升势头也很快，如果它能实现80万辆的年销售目标，那么其销量将相当于道奇（Dodge）和吉普（Jeep）两个品牌当前销量的总和。由此可见，哪怕只求保住现有份额，底特律三巨头也必须开足马力。

2. 丰田能否卷土重来？

    2011年是丰田历史上最多灾多难的一年，丰田接连经受了自然灾害（地震、海啸、洪水）、运营（召回）和财务（强势日元）上的打击。对丰田持悲观态度的人认为，丰田这个一度荣膺全球销量冠军的品牌已经无力回天了。丰田为争夺全球第一而栽了跟头，总裁丰田章男汲取教训，首次承诺将放弃“称霸”，不过这并不表示他退缩了。丰田公司宣布将借新车型上市之机，将2012年的汽车产量大幅提高20%。

3.克莱斯勒能否重演成功？

    克莱斯勒的浴火重生是2011年的一段佳话。在吉普品牌的带领下，克莱斯勒今年前11个月的销量飙升了25%，超过了业界10%的升幅均值。这要归功于克莱斯勒对某些现有产品的成功升级和抓人眼球的广告攻势。不过，2012年克莱斯勒发布的新车相对较少。竞争对手也会越来越密切地关注克莱斯勒。同时菲亚特（Fiat）在欧洲遇到的一系列问题也很可能会让CEO塞尔吉奥•马基奥尼分心。

4. 美国人究竟会不会爱上小型车？

    尽管雪佛兰科鲁兹（Chevy Cruze）和福特福克斯（Focus）这种小型车在市场上很有竞争力，但是美国市场上的畅销车型还是以全尺寸皮卡和中型轿车为主。今年高调上市的微型车菲亚特500遭到市场冷遇。油价走高和联邦法规等因素可能终有一天会让消费者开始考虑小型轿车，但现在看来，大家还都不着急。

    Every year brings new uncertainties to the car business, and 2012 will be no different. The devil will be in the details. With the U.S. economy expanding, pent-up demand growing, and the Detroit Three earning, the survival of the industry is not in question so much as is its composition. Will buyers be looking for big trucks or small cars, import brands or domestics, gasoline-power or electricity?

    Here are ten questions -- along with some possible answers -- that will churn the auto world in 2012:

1. Will the Detroit Three begin losing share again to the imports?

    Domestic market share was stable in 2012 with General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) and Chrysler gaining a bit and Ford (F, Fortune 500) losing a smidgen, but the good news may be only temporary. Detroit benefited from an unusually bad year for the Japanese, with both Toyota and Honda losing sales in a rising market. But other imports keep getting stronger. Hyundai and Kia are now the sixth and seventh most popular U.S. brands, while Lexus outsells Buick, Cadillac, and Lincoln. Nissan has targeted a 10% market share, which would put it in fourth place in U.S. sales. Moving up quickly is Volkswagen, which, if it achieves its goal of 800,000 car sales, would become as large as Dodge and Jeep combined are today. Detroit will have to drive fast just to stay even.

2. Can Toyota reload?

    Flattened by disasters natural (earthquake, tsunami, floods), operational (recalls), and financial (the expensive yen), Toyota suffered a landmark annus horribilis in 2011. Naysayers are insisting the former global sales champ has fallen back in the pack. Perhaps. President Akio Toyoda forswears any of the "we're Number One" talk that got the company in trouble the first time, but he isn't holding back; the automaker has announced plans to boost production on the strength of new models by an aggressive 20% in 2012.

3. Can Chrysler repeat its success?

    Chrysler's Phoenix-like rise from the ashes was the feel-good story of 2011. Led by Jeep, its sales rose 25% through November, outpacing the market's overall 10% gain. Credit the surge to some smart updates for the existing product line and some attention-getting advertising. But new model launches will be scarcer in 2012, competitors will be watching more closely, and CEO Sergio Marchionne will likely be distracted by problems in Europe at Fiat.

4. Will Americans ever get comfortable with small cars?

    Full-size pickups and mid-size sedans still dominate the best-seller list despite newly competitive small entries like the Chevy Cruze and Ford Focus. Meanwhile, the high-profile launch of the Fiat 500 minicar fizzled. Rising gasoline prices and federal regulations ensure that customers will have to think small someday, but nobody seems to be in a hurry to start.

5.中国经济降温，谁的冬天来临？

    通用和大众是在中国做得最大的两家西方汽车厂商，一些德国豪车品牌也有相当一部分销量依赖于中国市场。奥迪（Audi）是中国豪车市场的领军品牌，它在中国卖出的汽车是在美国的两倍，宝马（BMW）在中国的销量也与奥迪旗鼓相当。作为世界第二大高端汽车消费市场，如果中国无法维持往年的增长速度，许多制定了宏伟扩张计划的高端品牌可能要失望了。

6. 欧宝何去何从

    通用汽车公司2009年曾想将欧宝（Opel）出售，目前正再次试图对欧宝进行重组，这可不是件容易的事。在欧债危机影响下，欧洲车市也迎来了严冬。另外，欧洲汽车产业长期以来一直存在产能过剩的问题，明年产能过剩率或将达到20%。欧宝的市场占有率仅有8%左右，并不处在优势地位，而且它的品牌形象较为模糊，很容易被大众汽车压倒。通用已经把支持欧宝的副总裁史蒂夫•吉斯基派到了欧宝任职，希望通过削减成本，更好地将其整合到通用的全球运营中，使欧宝起死回生。欧宝迄今已经历多次裁员，员工屡受打击。就算欧洲经济继续恶化下去，吉斯基的改革也可能会面临来自欧宝员工的内部阻力。

7. 2013款福特福星有望加冕明年的年度轿车吗？

    福特福星（Fusion）一直是畅销榜上的常青树，2013款福星轿车经历了彻头彻尾的升级换代，而且被搬到了全球平台上。新款福星将在一月初面世，在面世之前，福特一直对新款福星的细节守口如瓶。除了鲜明的设计风格之外，新款福星预计还将采用一系列史无前例的动力配置，预计将为业界设立新的节油标准。它很可能将与升级后的宝马3系争夺2012年度轿车的桂冠。

8. 福特总裁艾伦•穆拉利何时退休？

    新款福星的发布将再次强有力地证明穆拉利“一个福特”战略的正确性，因此穆拉利可能会借此光荣退休。不过现在看来，这位精力充沛的66岁老人还没有要退休的迹象。福特一向有突然换帅的历史，很少有权力平稳交接的经验，而且现在看来福特也没有计划，指定一个继任者以便穆拉利“传帮带”一段时间。考虑到穆拉利任内的卓越表现以及他对福特股价的影响，因此一旦福特突然换帅，投资人可能会大受震动。

9. 电动汽车制造商特斯拉（Tesla）和菲斯科（Fisker）是否会成为共和党的出气筒？因为它们也像通用和Solyndra公司一样花着联邦政府的银子。

    为了鼓励可充电汽车的研发和生产，奥巴马政府大手笔为这两家初创公司提供了总计超过10亿美元的能源部（Energy Department）贷款担保。共和党指责这笔钱花错了地方。2012年，这两家公司都要开始发布新车了。如果其中任何一家公司掉了链子，来自共和党的攻击和指责将不可必免。

10. 电影《谍中谍4》的上映会不会刺激宝马的销量？

    宝马公司一向擅于在好莱坞大片中搞植入式广告。它在四部007系列电影中都植入了自己的广告，现在又让阿汤哥在《谍中谍4：幽灵协议》（Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol）中开上了宝马i8——这是一款电池动力、碳纤维车身的概念车，采用了拉风之极的蝴蝶式车门。观众看到了这款i8和影片中其它光鲜亮丽的宝马轿车后，很可能会为了模仿阿汤哥而买上一台宝马。不过他们在别的方面就不必模仿了——比如试图攀爬全球第一高楼、迪拜“哈里发塔”。

    译者：朴成奎

5. Who gets frozen out when China cools off?

    GM and Volkswagen are the two biggest Western car producers in China, but German luxury brands rely on China for a higher proportion of their sales. Audi, China's luxury car leader, sells more than twice as many cars there than it does in the U.S., while BMW sells nearly as many. As the world's second-largest market for upscale cars, China could upset expansion plans for top-shelf brands if it stops growing at the rate of past years.

6. Whither Opel?

    GM, which tried to sell Opel in 2009, is now attempting another restructuring, and the job won't be easy. The European financial crisis has flattened car sales, and chronic industry overcapacity could reach 20% next year. With a market share of around 8%, Opel is not operating from a position of strength, and its blurry brand image makes it vulnerable to being steamrollered by Volkswagen. Vice-chairman Steve Girsky, an Opel supporter, has been dispatched to fix the GM unit by cutting costs and better integrating it into the automaker's global operations. As if deteriorating European economics weren't bad enough, Girsky is likely to face resistance from a wounded workforce that has been battered by past cutbacks.

7. Will the 2013 Ford Fusion be car of the year?

    Already a perennial best seller, the Fusion gets a top-to-bottom overhaul for 2013 and moves to a global platform. Ford is being tight-lipped about details prior to the car's unveiling in early January, but in addition to dramatic styling, the Fusion is expected to set new standards for fuel economy with an unprecedented array of powertrains. It could be vying with the revamped BMW 3-series for end of the year honors.

8. When will Alan Mulally retire?

    Ford's CEO could go out with the Fusion launch providing a ringing affirmation of his One Ford strategy but there are no signs the still-energetic 66-year-old will do so. With its history of unplanned management changes, Ford has little experience with peaceful transitions and seemingly has no plans to provide a Mulally successor an extended break-in period. Given Mulally's standout performance and his impact on Ford's stock price, the abrupt change could shock investors.

9. Will Tesla and Fisker become GOP punching bags for taking federal money like GM and Solyndra?

    The Obama administration lavished Energy Department loan guarantees that total more than $1 billion on the two startups for the development and production of rechargeable cars. Republicans are complaining the money was misspent. Both companies will be in launch mode this year with new models. If either one falters, the name-calling and finger-pointing will begin in earnest.

10. Will Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol give BMW a boost?

    After sprinkling its cars through four James Bond movies, BMW puts IM agent Ethan Hunt in the driver's seat for the latest installment of the action series. Star billing goes to the i8, a carbon-fiber battery-powered concept car with butterfly doors. Audiences seeing this and other models featuring the blue-and-white spinning propeller in glamorous settings are expected to imitate Tom Cruise by driving a BMW. Presumably, they won't trying to imitate Cruise in other ways -- like trying to scale the Burj Kakifa in Dubai.