腐败、闹剧和完全缺乏竞争力可能打碎巴西成为石油出口大国的梦想。上周，巴西检察官要求雪佛龙（Chevron）及其钻井合作伙伴Transocean为在巴西沿海意外漏油约3,000桶支付110亿美元的巨额罚款。虽然这样的罚款额显然过高，真正获得支付的可能性也不大，但这引发了对在巴西开展业务是否有长期保障的疑虑。

    漏油似乎是海底石油钻探和输送过程中很难完全避免的现象。大规模漏油事故——比如去年英国石油（BP）在墨西哥湾漏油400万桶——完全无法容忍。但如果在开采几百万桶的情况下每年漏油几百桶是在是稀松平常的事情。

    但在巴西，有人认为这样的漏油事件是“死罪”——特别是如果被告是一家外资石油公司的话。本月初，美国石油公司雪佛龙被巴西联邦政府罚款5,000万雷亚尔（2,800万美元），原因是其距里约热内卢标志性海滩外75英里的近海钻井平台泄漏了约2,400-3,000桶石油。

    如果这一漏油事件发生在美国水域，雪佛龙可能只需支付上述罚款额的一半左右，而且前提是雪佛龙被认定存在严重疏忽。雪佛龙对巴西联邦政府的处罚决定没有发表异议，同意支付罚款，承担事故的全部责任，并立即开始清理。巴西石油业发展快速，雪佛龙不想因此危及自己在这个市场地位。漏油口已被封堵，海面上也已看不到泄漏的原油。鉴于漏油量大小和洋流方向，泄漏原油绝无污染里约热内卢海滩的可能。

    但故事并未就此结束。这一漏油事件在里约州迅速开始政治化；里约州是巴西新兴石油行业的中心，也是准国有企业——巴西国家石油公司（Petrobras）的所在地。里约州环境部长威胁将吊销雪佛龙的经营执照，让远在美国休斯顿的、积极参与巴西石油行业建设的众多外资石油公司也感到一阵阵寒意。就此，巴西联邦政府私底下安慰石油业界，钻井许可归联邦政府管，他们不必在意地方官员的叫嚣。

    但如今，这些不满已演变成了一项巨额民事诉讼。来自里约热内卢邻近城市坎普斯的检察官们上周三对雪佛龙和瑞士Transocean公司提起了诉讼，指控他们因严重疏忽造成了漏油事件，并索偿200亿雷亚尔（约110亿美元）。检察官们表示，高额的罚款是为了表明里约州高度重视环保问题。诉讼未提及雪佛龙在这一油田项目中的其他合作伙伴，包括一家日本金融公司和巴西国家石油公司，也没有说明罚款将如何在雪佛龙和Transocean之间分配。

    Corruption, grandstanding and total incompetence may sink Brazil's dreams of becoming an oil exporting powerhouse. Prosecutors in the country last week slapped Chevron and drilling partner Transocean with an $11 billion fine for accidentally releasing around 3,000 barrels of oil off of Brazil's coast. While the fine is clearly excessive and unlikely to stick, it has raised questions regarding the long-term safety of doing business in Brazil.

    Oil spills seem to unfortunately be a fact of life when drilling and transporting oil from the ocean floor. Massive spills, like BP's disastrous four-million barrel belch in the Gulf of Mexico last year, though, are totally unacceptable. But the leaking of a few hundred barrels of oil per year seems to be par for the course when extracting millions.

    In Brazil, though, one would think that such minute spills were a capital offense -- especially if the offender was a foreign oil company. US-based Chevron (CVX) was fined 50 million reals ($28 million) by Brazil's federal government earlier this month for leaking around 2,400 to 3,000 barrels from one of its offshore drilling platforms located 75-miles off the coast of Brazil's iconic beaches in Rio de Janeiro.

    The fine is around double what Chevron would have had to pay if the leak occurred in U.S. waters, and only if the company were convicted of gross negligence in relation to the spill. Instead of fighting the fine, Chevron agreed to pay, accepted total responsibility for the accident and quickly began clean up. It did not want to jeopardize its place in Brazil's fast-growing oil industry. The leak has since been plugged and has disappeared from the ocean surface. There was never any risk of oil washing up on the beaches in Rio given the size of the spill and the direction of the ocean currents.

    But that was not the end of the story. The oil spill quickly became politicized in the state of Rio de Janeiro, home of Brazil's burgeoning oil industry and the quasi-state-controlled oil giant Petrobras. The environmental secretary of Rio threatened to revoke Chevron's operating license over the spill, sending shivers all the way up to Houston, home to the dozens of foreign oil companies that feed Brazil's oil engine. The federal government in Brasilia quietly reassured the oil community that drilling permits were under federal jurisdiction and that they should simply ignore the howls of discontent from local officials.

    But now those howls have turned into a stinging civil lawsuit. Prosecutors from Campos, a city near Rio de Janeiro, filed suit last Wednesday against Chevron and Transocean (RIG) for gross negligence in connection with the oil spill. They announced they were seeking 20 billion reals or around $11 billion in compensation for the spill. The fine was high, prosecutors say, in order to send a message that Rio was serious when it comes to environmental protection. The suit did not mention Chevron's other partners in the oil field, a Japanese financial company and Petrobras, and did not say how the fine would be divvied up between Chevron and Transocean.

    这一罚款额相当于每漏一桶油须缴纳罚金约350万美元，远远高于美国每桶4,300美元的处罚上限。去年英国石油向墨西哥湾排放了400万桶原油，被处以总罚金约35亿美元，但也仅及雪佛龙现在泄漏3,000桶原油罚金的三分之一。

    但这笔令人错愕的天价罚款可能永远都不会得到偿付。巴克莱（Barclays）的一项分析显示，雪佛龙在巴西的资产总值估计只有41亿美元左右。雪佛龙巴西子公司很可能会宣告破产，让里约州政府一个子儿也拿不到。现如今，巨额罚款在石油世界已变得越来越常见。征收此类罚款的往往是像委内瑞拉、哈萨克斯坦这样的腐败政府，罚款就是变相的勒索，目的是从已经出产石油的公司榨取更多的钱。罚款也被用作政府接管石油资产的一个借口。

狂热的地方检察官

    在这一事件之前，巴西在处理与外国合作伙伴的关系方面记录都还一直不错。巴西一直鼓励埃克森美孚（Exxon Mobil）、壳牌（Shell）、雪佛龙和英国石油这样的外资公司积极参与近海石油业务，以此作为快速提高石油产量的途径，因为巴西国家石油公司既没有资金也没有技术独立完成这个任务。巴西希望到2020年实现石油产量翻番至每天约700万桶，使巴西成为全球第三大石油出口国，仅次于俄罗斯和沙特。

    但巴西的联邦体系已成为追逐这一梦想的绊脚石。联邦政府想把石油开采权使用费在各州间更多地平均分配，改变由开采所在地的沿海几个州获得大头的现状。里约州是这一计划的主要反对者，因为这会让该州在未来几年内损失约70亿美元石油开采权使用费。坎普斯和里约热内卢这样的城市早已规划将这些收入用于一些大型项目，尤其是2016年奥运会相关关项目。

    坎普斯的检察官们通过此案向联邦政府发出的信号是，要想拿走他们的石油收入，可得步步小心。如果雪佛龙被赶出这个国家，巴西成为西半球石油出口大国的梦想也将石沉大海。假如外资石油公司知道它们随时可能会被某个小镇上狂热的检察官赶出巴西，他们就绝不会再拿出什么资金来开发这个国家的石油资源。

    巴西需要外资石油公司的技术、设备和专业经验来发展本国石油产业。未来数年，光几个新探明的超大油田投产估计就要投入6,000亿美元。巴西还需要外资石油公司来维持生产。比如，单Transocean一家就经营着巴西60个现役海上石油平台中的10个。

    The fine is equivalent to around $3.5 million per barrel spilled and it dwarfs the U.S. maximum fine of around $4,300 per barrel spilled. BP's (BP) total fine for dumping 4 million barrels into the Gulf of Mexico last year came to around $3.5 billion, around a third of what Chevron is now facing with its 3,000 barrel belch.

    But the jaw-dropping fine will probably never be paid. Chevron's total oil assets in Brazil are estimated to be worth around $4.1 billion, according to an analysis conducted by Barclays. Chevron's Brazilian unit would probably declare bankruptcy before it shelled out one real to the Rio government. Egregious fines are becoming more common these days in the oil world. They are usually levied by corrupt states like Venezuela and Kazakhstan as a form of blackmail in order to extract more money from oil companies once they start production. They are also used as an excuse for a state takeover of oil assets.

Overzealous prosecutors

    Brazil has had a somewhat fair record in dealing with its foreign partners up until this point. It has actually encouraged foreign participation from oil giants like Exxon Mobil (XOM), Shell, Chevron and BP in its offshore oil business as a way of quickly ramping up production as Petrobras (PBR) had neither the money nor the expertise in doing it alone. The country wants to double its oil production capacity by 2020 to around 7 million barrels a day. That would make Brazil the third-largest oil exporter in the world behind Russia and Saudi Arabia.

    Brazil's federal system now has become a liability in that quest. The federal government wants to distribute more of the oil royalties evenly across all the states in Brazil, instead of the lion's share going to states on the coast where the drilling occurs. Rio has been a major critic of the plan as it stands to lose an estimated $7 billion over the next few years in oil royalties. Cities like Campos and Rio had already earmarked that money for grand projects, most notably, for the 2016 Olympic Games.

    The prosecutors in Campos are sending a message to Brasilia that it should tread carefully if it tries to take its oil money away. If it is successful in driving Chevron out of the country, Brazil's dreams to be the preeminent oil exporter in the western hemisphere would sink to the bottom of the ocean. Foreign oil companies would refuse to dish out any more money to develop the country's resources if it knew that it could be kicked out at any moment by overzealous prosecutors in small towns.

    Brazil needs the technology, equipment and expertise of foreign oil companies if it hopes to grow its oil industry. An estimated $600 billion will be needed over the years to get its newly discovered mega fields into production. Brazil also needs them to just maintain production. For example, Transocean alone operates 10 of the 60 offshore oil platforms currently in operation in Brazil.

    巴西国家石油公司依赖海外石油巨头和承包商来完成大部分海上工作。在巴西工作过的外国工程师都在抱怨巴西工程师缺乏应有的工作能力。去年，巴西国家石油公司报告了57起漏油事件，共往海中漏油4,201桶，远高于雪佛龙上个月的漏油量（而且不出意料，巴西国家石油公司公布的处罚额也小很多——2010年仅为4,300万美元）。同样还是这家公司，2000年致使当时全球最大的油井平台“意外”沉没，事故发生时距离其接管这个平台仅仅几个月。这次意外导致了几十亿美元打了水漂，也使巴西深刻意识到如果想成为石油出口大国，必须获得外资公司的帮助。

    但如今，这场灾难在巴西利亚似乎已被淡忘。巴西国家石油公司对参与超深水域石油业务依然不积极，石油业界将此视为是向这个国家变相支付开采权费用。但根据去年通过的一项新法律，在任何与新探明的超大“盐层下”近海油田相关的新石油企业中，巴西国家石油公司必须持有至少30%的股份。

    如果巴西希望发展本国石油产业，它就需要外资石油公司的技术和设备。巴西强迫外资石油公司将更多的未来利润给予巴西国家石油公司，早已引发众怒。现在，旨在进一步抢夺外资石油公司利润的巨额罚款威胁则可能吓跑它们。

    Petrobras depends on foreign oil giants and contractors to do the lion's share of its work for them offshore. Foreign engineers that have worked in Brazil complain about the incompetence of their Brazilian counterparts. Last year, Petrobras reported 57 oil leaks that released 4,201 barrels of oil into the ocean, far more than Chevron's infringement last month (and not surprisingly, Petrobras reported significantly smaller fines -- only $43 million in 2010). And this is, after all, the company that in 2000 "accidentally" sank the world's largest oil platform at the time just a few months after taking ownership of it. The billions of dollars that went down the drain in that incident convinced Brazil that it needed foreign help if it ever hoped to become an oil exporting powerhouse.

    But the memories of that oil disaster seem to have faded in Brasilia. Petrobras's participation in the ultra-deep water oil business remains mostly passive and is viewed by the oil industry as another form of royalty payment to the state. But under a new law passed last year, Petrobras must now have a minimum 30% stake in any new oil ventures connected with the newly discovered mega "pre-salt" offshore fields.

    If Brazil hopes to grow its oil industry it will need the technology and equipment of foreign oil companies. It has already irked many of them by forcing them to turn over more of their future profit to Petrobras. But the threat of mega fines eating away at the rest of their profits will make many stay home.