将弱国赶出欧元区并不能解决欧洲大陆的经济问题。这样鲁莽的举动只会给欧元区核心成员国（尤其是出口型经济的德国）带来更多的伤害，而不是好处。同心协力，共同分担痛苦似乎是最好的选择，但现在还不清楚欧元区核心成员国到底愿意承担多少痛苦。

    欧债危机旷日持久，但欧元区的完整性一直被核心成员国视为神圣不可侵犯。希腊这样挥霍无度的成员国应该被赶出这个由17个成员国组成的共同货币联盟，这样的想法很快遭到了德国、法国等核心成员国主流政客们的否决。

    但如今在这个问题上已开始显露分歧。两周前，德法领导人们开始暗示可以预见希腊获准退出欧元区的情形。上周，法国总统萨科齐更进一步，甚至声称可以预见一个“双速”欧洲的出现。届时欧盟强国的经济增速将更加同步，而弱国将被远远地落在后头。

    交易员们将此解读为可能出现一个缩水的欧元区，即欧元区的核心成员国联合起来组建一个强有力的财政货币联盟，而边缘国家将退出欧元，深陷债务泥沼。表面上，这似乎是针对欧洲经济危机愈演愈烈的最佳解决方案。核心成员国一直以来牢牢地看着自家的钱袋子，它们不必为了拯救只有十年历史的欧元而出手救助边缘国家。

    当然，事情没有那么简单。过去十年，边缘国家欠下的债务多是向总部位于核心国家的银行借的。关于硬违约可能给欧元区脆弱的银行体系带来怎样的冲击，之前已有太多讨论。就算主权债务没有压垮它们，边缘国家民众欠下的几万亿欧元贷款也会达到同样的效果。

    对于普通的德国民众，这听起来可能非常不公。为什么他们必须要担起这些重任，既要拯救像希腊这样的整个国家，还要拯救总部位于巴黎、阿姆斯特丹等地有钱的大银行？鉴于这样的现实，有些人可能会问，为什么德国没有出现一场更大规模的、类似于“占领华尔街”（Occupy Wall Street）那样的运动，愤怒的德国失业青年们也没有去法兰克福的公园里露营抗议。

    Booting out the weak members of the eurozone won't solve the continent's economic problems. Such a bold move would cause more harm than good for core members of the euro, most notably, export-driven Germany. A coordinated effort to share the pain seems to be the best option out there, but it's unclear how much pain the core eurozone countries are willing to take.

    The integrity of the eurozone has been considered sacrosanct by its core members throughout the long running European sovereign debt crisis. The idea that a profligate member of the zone, like Greece, would need to be kicked out of the 17- member common currency was quickly dismissed by mainstream politicians of core member states, like Germany and France.

    But cracks in that resolve have started to form. Two weeks ago, the leaders of Germany and France hinted that they could envision a scenario in which Greece would be allowed to leave the common currency. French President Nicholas Sarkozy took the issue a bit further last week when he said he could envision a "two-speed" Europe, where strong members of the European Union would grow closer while weak members would be left to putter in the background.

    Traders have interpreted this to mean that a smaller eurozone may be on the horizon, one where the core members of the euro unite to form a strong fiscal and monetary union, while the peripheral nations exit the common currency and drown in debt. On the surface this seems like the best solution to a growing European economic crisis that shows no signs of abating. The core members have been good stewards of their money and shouldn't have to bail out the periphery just to save a 10-year-old common currency.

    Of course, things aren't that simple. Most of the debt that the periphery has racked up over the past decade has been financed by banks that are headquartered in the core countries. There has been a lot of discussion surrounding what a hard default could do to the region's fragile banking system. If the sovereign debt didn't crush them, then the trillions of euros in private loans that were extended to people living in the periphery would do the trick.

    To the average German citizen this probably seems very unfair. Why should they have to shoulder the heavy burdens of not only bailing out whole countries, like Greece, but also big rich banks headquartered in places like Paris and Amsterdam? Given this stark reality, some may question why there isn't a larger "Occupy Wall Street"-like movement made up of angry and unemployed young Germans camping out in Frankfurt parks.

德国离不开疲弱的成员国

    之所以出现这样的局面可能是因为一个人们不愿触及的真相：德国人从欧元受益颇多——欧元让他们坐享汇率人为低估优势。通常人们都不愿接受弱势货币——它会让海外度假活动等变得更为昂贵。但对于德国而言，弱势货币是通往经济繁荣不可或缺的一张船票。德国退出欧元无异于搬起石头砸自己的脚。

    德国拥有优厚的社会保障、相对较高的工资，以及仅有8,000万的人口，同时也是全球第二大出口国。欧元在这其中扮演了重要角色。自从1999年德国采用欧元以来，德国出口额已经翻了一倍还多，从约4,690亿欧元升至2010年的1万多亿欧元。这样的增速是欧元区其他国家的两倍。虽然德国人的东西质量确实不错，但他们能以有竞争力的价格出口这么多商品是因为他们的货币相对便宜。

    德国的出口引擎左右开弓。首先，它扩大了对非欧元区国家的出口。因为如果保持其他条件不变，实际的欧元汇率要低于德国继续沿用马克时的汇率。这是因为欧元覆盖17个国家，期中大部分国家经济实力较弱，拉低了欧元相对于美元和英镑的汇率。中国为保出口而人为压低汇率已饱受诟病。德国却不必如此——它只需坐下来，看着另一个欧元区弱国陷入危机，它的出口在世界舞台上的竞争力就会得到提高。

    我们可以看看德国最新的出口数据。虽然欧元区仍陷于危机之中，虽然整个地区看来又可能进入一轮衰退，9月份德国出口较前月反而增长了近1%至913亿欧元，达到有数据记录以来的最高水平。8月份，危机恶化时，出口较前月增长0.2%。另一方面，9月份德国进口却减少0.8%，高涨的经常项目顺差继续膨胀。通常，这样的情况会推动德国货币升值，但由于南欧危机重重，欧元贬值，德国出口甚至更有竞争力了。

    其次，弱势欧元给了德国人一个更大的商品销售市场。德国约2/3的出口面向欧元区成员国——只是欧元区的17个成员国，不是欧盟自由贸易区的35个成员国。单一货币使得交易更加简单，因为它消除了汇率风险。德国汇率低估意味着西班牙、希腊等经济较弱的国家汇率高估，让这些国家更能买得起德国商品。因此，难怪德国汽车、德国白色家电、德国电子产品和德国机械设备主导了欧元区市场。

    要论共同点，希腊与中东邻国的共同点可能远多于它与欧元区伙伴国的共同点，它加入欧元区之初就已经埋下了祸根。新的信贷额度让希腊民众和政府开始了花钱如流水的日子。关于希腊官僚机构的高工资已经是老生常谈。这是事实，但这些只是过去十年这个国家所欠巨额债务的一部分。这个国家还新修了大量道路、机场、以及地铁系统，并为军队采购了最先进的武器。这些项目的背后大多是德国公司。

Germany relies on the weakest members

    It's probably because of a truth that no one likes to talk about: Germans have benefitted greatly from the euro -- it's given them an artificially weak currency. Normally, one would hate to be paid in a weak currency -- among other things, it makes their vacations abroad more expensive. But for Germany, a weak currency has been its ticket to prosperity. If the Germans would leave the euro, they would actually be shooting themselves in the foot.

    Consider that Germany, which has a generous social safety net, relatively high wages and just 80 million people, is the world's second-largest exporting country. The euro has played a significant part in this. German exports have more than doubled since they went on the euro in 1999, going from around 469 billion euros to well over a trillion euros in 2010. The rate of growth was also twice as fast as other nations in the zone. While there is no doubt that the Germans make quality stuff, the reason they are able to export so much at competitive price points is because they are operating with a relatively cheap currency.

    Germany's export engine works two ways. First, it exports more to non-eurozone countries because the exchange rate of the euro is weaker than it would be, all things being equal, if it had stayed on the Deutsche Mark. That's because the euro encompasses 17 nations, many of which are "weak," therefore bringing down the value of the currency relative to the dollar and the pound. China gets a lot of flak for artificially manipulating its currency to maintain its exports. Germany doesn't have to do that – all it needs to do is sit back and watch another weak eurozone nation go down in flames and its exports get more competitive on the world stage.

    Take the latest export data out of Germany. Even though the eurozone is in crisis and the region looks to be headed for another recession, German exports in September rose nearly 1% from the previous month to 91.3 billion euros, which is the highest level since records began. In August, when the crisis hit overdrive, exports were up 0.2% from the previous month. Meanwhile, imports into Germany fell 0.8% for September, increasing the nations burgeoning current account surplus. Normally that would cause Germany's currency to strengthen, but since there was trouble down south, the euro weakened, making German exports even more competitive.

    The second way the euro helps Germany is that it has given them a much larger market to dump their goods. Around two-thirds of German exports go to members of the eurozone – that's just the 17 members part of the common currency, not the 35 that are part of the European Union's free trade area. The euro makes business much simpler as it eliminates foreign exchange risk. An artificially low euro in Germany means an artificially high euro in weaker countries like Spain and Greece. That means those countries can afford to buy German goods. It's therefore no wonder why German cars, white goods, electronics and machinery dominate the eurozone.

    In Greece, a country that arguably shares much more in common with its Middle Eastern neighbors than its eurozone partners, being on the common currency has been a bit of a curse. With access to new credit lines, the Greek populace and its government went on a spending spree. Much has been discussed about how the Greek bureaucracy paid itself lavish wages. While true, that is just part of the massive sovereign debt bill the country rang up in the past decade. The country also paved lots of roads, constructed new airports, tunneled new subway systems and procured state-of-the-art weapons for its military. Behind most of these projects were German companies.

    问题是希腊官僚机构起用德国公司不完全是因为高质量和共同货币，还因为他们得了好处。西门子（Siemens）、戴姆勒奔驰（Daimler）、德国铁路（Deutsche Bahn）和Ferrostaal等德国公司都曾被指向希腊官员行贿数百万欧元，以获取希腊政府的军用和民用项目。其中，西门子曾被指为获取2004年奥运会前雅典电信基础设施升级项目，向希腊官员行贿1亿欧元。

    德国公司执行的这些大型项目大多用于升级希腊陈旧的基础设施。但这些设施陈旧是有原因的——希腊并不阔绰。但由于汇率高估和廉价融资，希腊人乐得拿了钱就花。

    但是我们能谴责他们吗？汇率高估也意味着希腊经济变得毫无竞争力。希腊的主要出口商品，如橄榄，卖到国外就太贵了。与此同时，在希腊岛上开派对的成本也比在土耳其类似地点贵出了几倍。经济繁荣时期，这不是什么问题；但当经济低迷时，希腊旅游业受到的冲击就很大了。

    德国开足了马力出口时，希腊经济疲弱以及庞大的赤字应该是可以预见的。由于欧元区区内贸易量很大，一个成员国的经常项目顺差自然意味着另一个国家的逆差。

德国退出欧元区代价高昂

    瑞银（UBS)曾尝试评估德国退出欧元区的成本。分析人士预计一次性成本可能达到德国GDP的20%- 25%左右，或德国人人均6,000-8,000欧元。此后，每一年它都会耗费每个德国公民约3,500-4,000欧元。

    相比之下，瑞银估计如果欧元区吞下希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙50%的债务，每个德国人只需一次性付出略高于1,000欧元即可。这样的结果远好于退出欧元区。这项研究没有包括救助意大利，意大利的未偿债务总额是所有这些国家债务总额的3倍左右。为讨论计，不妨假设为意大利减债50%——约9,000亿欧元，这样的救助理论上成本仍然低于德国选择退出欧元。

    退出欧元的成本如此高昂，是因为如果德国改回使用自己的货币，汇率会很高，难以支撑其出口型经济。虽然很难预测新的德国货币汇率将会如何，最好的猜测也认为可能是1元兑2美元左右，比当前的欧元兑美元的汇率高了50%。这意味着50,000美元的中档奔驰轿车将涨价至75,000美元。虽然它仍是品质优异的汽车，但市场上还有很多非德国产的汽车，美国消费者可能会做出其他的选择。

    为了保持竞争力，德国政府将不得不向市场大量注入新货币，导致节俭的民众储蓄大为缩水，进而可能引发国内震荡，届时希腊的骚乱可能只能算是小菜一碟了。

    德国人需要欧元，需要欧元汇率低估才能实现经济增长。为此，德国需要希腊和其他边缘国家留在欧元区内。嘴上说说将希腊赶出欧元区，说说双速欧洲可能会获得政治加分，但其实脱离了当今欧洲各国经济相互依存的现实。

    What's troubling is that the Greek bureaucracy was persuaded to use German companies, not only because of the quality and the common currency, but also because they were paid off. German companies like Siemens (SI), Daimler, Deutsche Bahn, and Ferrostaal have been accused of funneling millions of euros to Greek politicians to secure military and civilian government contracts. In one incident, Siemens allegedly paid 100 million euros to Greek officials to secure a contract to upgrade Athens's telecommunications infrastructure for the 2004 Olympic Games.

    Most of the big-ticket projects executed by German companies helped upgrade Greece's antiquated infrastructure. But there was a reason it was antiquated – Greece is not a rich nation. But with an artificially strong currency and access to cheap debt, the Greeks took the money and ran.

    Would you blame them? The strong currency also meant that the Greek economy became totally uncompetitive. Greece's main exports, like olives, were too expensive to sell abroad. Meanwhile, partying on Greek Island became several times more expensive than partying on a similar one in Turkey. That was fine when the economy was good, but when it seized up, Greece's tourism industry took a dive.

    The weakness in the Greek economy and its big deficits should be expected when Germany's export machine is firing on all cylinders. Since there is so much intra-eurozone trade, a current account surplus in one member naturally means there will be a deficit in another.

A costly exit

    UBS tried to assess what it would cost Germany if it did break away. The analysts figured it would cost around 20% to 25% of the country's GDP or 6,000 to 8,000 euros per German citizen upfront to walk away. It would then cost around 3,500 to 4,000 euros per German citizen every year going forward.

    In contrast, UBS figured that if the eurozone swallowed 50% of the debt of Greece, Ireland and Portugal it would cost a little over 1,000 euros per German in a single hit. That's a much better outcome than going it alone. The study did not include extending a bailout to Italy, which has total debt outstanding that is around three times that of all those nations combined. But for the sake of argument, say one takes a 50% haircut on Italian debt – some 900 billion euros, that bailout would theoretically still cost less to the Germans than it would if they decided to leave the euro.

    The reason it costs so much is because a new German-only currency would be very strong – too strong to support its current export-driven economy. While it's tough to know what the new German currency would be valued at, some of the best guesses have been around two dollars per euro, which is a 50% increase to its current exchange rate with the greenback. That means a mid-range $50,000 Mercedes would now need to be priced at $75,000. While it's still a great quality automobile, there are many of other non-German options that American consumers would probably choose in that case.

    To get competitive, the German government would have to flood the market with their new currency, which would then decimate the savings of their penny-pinching populace. The instability within Germany that would result from such a move would probably make the riots in Greece look like a fun trip to the beer garden.

    The Germans need the euro, but they need it to be weak in order to survive. To do that, they are going to need Greece and the other peripheral countries to stay in. While talk of kicking Greece out of the eurozone and pursuing a two-speed Europe may score some political points, it doesn't reflect the reality of today's interconnected European economy.