摆在德国面前的是一道难得让人头痛的难题，其选择不仅会塑造欧洲共同体的未来，还将影响全球经济。现在欧洲债务危机已经蔓延到了多个规模较大的国家，无法再用临时援助手段解决，因此德国必须两害相权择其轻：要么改变长期坚持的反对态度，为麻烦缠身的欧元区伙伴国家的债务提供担保，这将使纳税人的利益承担巨大风险；要么放弃欧元区，逃避保护弱国的义务，这会使德国经济增长引擎突然停止。德国是世界最高效、最庞大的经济体之一，而它现在面临着上述威胁，这正是全球市场震荡不休的主要原因之一。

    这种历史性的两难处境几周之前才浮出水面。当时投资者开始攻击意大利和西班牙政府债券，使其收益率屡创新高。意大利债务负担极为庞大，而西班牙财政赤字惊人，因此，两国都无力继续承担如此惊人的收益率。欧洲央行（The European Central Bank）不得不出手救急，在一个周内买入了多达100亿美元的两国债券，将收益率压了下来。欧洲央行已经明确表示，此种买入行动只是短期举措。因此，欧盟正在将原本用于援助希腊、葡萄牙和爱尔兰的欧洲金融稳定基金（EFSF）的规模翻倍，扩大到6,200亿美元，并修改其章程以放宽其权限，允许它在公开市场购入政府债券。

    如果债券市场继续攻击意大利和西班牙债券（这种可能性相当大），尽管欧洲金融稳定基金规模已经有所扩大，但凭它拥有的资源仍然远远不够拯救两国债券。唯一的长期解决方案是发行一种新型债券，由欧元区17个国家一起担保，这将保证欧元的存续，给市场吃下定心丸。这种欧洲债券发行后，可用于为各国债务提供一定比例的支持。举例来说，跟据该计划，可以用完全安全的欧洲债券覆盖希腊、爱尔兰或法国50%的借款，剩下的一半则由各国政府发行本国政府债券来解决。

    欧洲债券的收益率降低之后，借款利息的总体成本将会下降，从而缓解这些国家的预算压力。如此一来，各国发行的非欧洲债券看起来也会安全得多，至少比他们现在的主权债券好不少。

    可是，迄今为止德国坚决地反对欧洲债券解决方案。该方案可能会根据各国国民收入的多少来决定其担保欧元债券的额度，由于德国国内生产总值（GDP）相当于整个欧元区的40%，其公民将被迫承担税收大幅上涨的压力，担保其他国家的违约情形。德国总理默克尔不断强调，这些国家现在的窘境纯属自讨苦吃，完全是这些国家的政府不负责任，大肆借贷、大手大脚所致。

    除非德国改变态度，否则欧元区终将解体。至于如何分家则尚未可知，南欧国家或许会恢复本国的货币，留下北方的德国、奥地利、芬兰、荷兰或许还有法国，组成一个缩水版的欧元区；也可能是德国选择主动退出，用本国货币取代欧元，比方说发行“新马克”，这将使其摆脱救援他国的负担——德国国内对此早已怨声载道。

    Germany is facing a maddeningly difficult choice that could shape the future not just of the European community, but the world economy. Now that the European debt crisis is spreading to nations far too big for temporary bailouts, Germany must decide between two extremely unattractive options. It must either abandon its stubborn resistance to guaranteeing the debts of ailing eurozone partners, at great risk to its taxpayers. Or, it can escape sheltering the weak by abandoning the eurozone. That would bring the German growth engine to a sudden halt. The threat to one of the world's leanest and largest economies is a major reason world markets are now in turmoil.

    The historic dilemma arose just a few weeks ago, when investors attacked Italian and Spanish government bonds, pushing rates to levels that made their big debt loads, in the case of Italy, and yawning deficits -- that's Spain -- unsustainable. The European Central Bank came to the rescue, pushing rates lower by purchasing as much as $10 billion a week in their sovereign bonds. The ECB is making it clear that those purchases will be short-lived. So the EU is doubling the size of the European Financial Stabilization Facility, the bailout fund that supports Greece, Portugal and Ireland, to $620 billion, and expanding the EFSF's charter to allow purchasing government bonds in the open market.

    Even at its new size, the EFSF won't remotely marshal the resources needed to save Italy and Spain if bond vigilantes keep attacking their debt, an excellent possibility. The only long-term solution, the fix that would calm markets by assuring the euro's survival, is a new type of securities backed by all 17 countries in the eurozone. These eurobonds could be issued to finance a fixed portion of each nation's debt. For example, the regime would allow Greece, Ireland or France to cover 50% of their total borrowings with totally safe eurobonds, and the other half with their own government securities.

    Since the total interest costs would fall because of low rates on the eurobonds, the pressure on their budgets would recede. So the non-eurobonds they issue would look a lot safer than their sovereign debt looks today.

    But so far, Germany adamantly opposes the eurobond solution. It's probable that the nations would guarantee those bonds in proportion to their national income. Since Germany accounts for 40% of the eurozone's GDP, its citizens would suffer big tax increases to cover defaults by nations that, as Chancellor Merkel keeps pointing out, brought on their own woes through reckless borrowing and spending.

    Unless Germany changes course, the eurozone will dissolve. It's not clear how the split would happen. Southern countries might restore their own currencies, leaving a northern group of Germany, Austria, Finland, the Netherlands and possibly France in a shrunken eurozone. Or Germany could go its own way by replacing the euro with, say, the Neue Mark, and in the process freeing itself from the shadow of wildly unpopular bailouts.

    对德国来说，两种情形的代价都将十分高昂。德国从欧元中获益匪浅，正如著名的国际经济学家罗伯特•阿利伯所说：“德国生产力增长速度比其邻国快得多，因此随着时间流逝，其出口竞争力也越来越大。”

    实际上，欧元人为地使德国产品在国际市场上特别廉价，同时使意大利、葡萄牙和希腊等脆弱经济体的产品过于昂贵。与过去的德国马克相比，欧元相当“疲软”，给德国带来了竞争优势，使其对中国和其他亚洲国家的出口蓬勃增长，其中，汽车和机械设备尤为畅销。

    简而言之，欧元区给德国带来了巨额贸易顺差，同时给其南欧伙伴国家带来了巨额逆差。如果欧元区瓦解，意大利、西班牙和希腊货币的汇率将会急剧下跌，大幅降低其物价，促进商品出口，同时遏制进口，这些国家的贸易赤字以及国际市场对德国商品的需求将会骤然下降。德国则会面临恰恰与此相反的效应，新马克相对于其贸易伙伴的货币的汇率将会飙升，其汽车和机械设备在国际市场上的价格将远远高于现有水平。受此影响，亚洲自己的机械工业将迎来发展良机。

    一夜之间，德国就会丧失在全球市场呼风唤雨的地位，该国繁荣赖以存在的庞大贸易顺差将会迅速消失殆尽。

    “一旦德国的贸易盈余不复存在，该国将会陷入严重衰退，”希腊著名的经济学家雅尼斯•瓦鲁法克斯说。过去十年来，德国的国际竞争力之所以强大，除了廉价货币的因素外，也与该国限制工资涨幅有关。可是，这种薪酬政策创造了庞大的工薪贫困阶层，也就是拥有工作但工资很低，因此仍然够得上福利发放标准的人群。瓦鲁法克斯指出：“货币升值后，德国企业若想要恢复竞争力，就得通过裁员降低成本，因此退出欧元意味着工薪贫困阶层有可能沦为失业者。”

    默克尔显然非常明白坚持原则的代价。因此，可能出现这样的情形：欧洲央行和欧洲金融稳定基金无法长期压低国债收益率，届时欧洲将迎来摊牌时刻，德国将作出重大的历史性让步，鼎力保卫欧元区——这个体系虽志存高远，却从未给经济相对脆弱的成员国带来经济上的改观，但它毕竟使德国获益匪浅，而盟友们现在正绝望地渴求德国的回报。

    译 小宇

    For Germany, the costs of either scenario would be enormous. Germany has profited mightily from the euro. "It has shown far more rapid gains in productivity than its neighbors," says Robert Aliber, the distinguished international economist. "So over time, its exports have become more and more competitive."

    In effect, the euro made German products artificially cheap on world market, and rendered those of weaker economies such as Italy, Portugal and Greece excessively expensive. The edge of a "weak" currency, compared to the old Deutsche Mark, also enabled Germany to garner booming sales in China and other Asian countries hungry for its cars and machine tools.

    In effect, the eurozone helped bring big surpluses to Germany, and large deficits to its southern partners. If it splinters, the exchange rates for Italian, Spanish and Greek currencies would fall sharply, lowering the prices, and raising sales, of their exports, and doing the opposite with imports. Their deficits -- and demand for German goods -- would collapse. Germany would suffer from the reverse effect. Its Neue Mark would soar versus its trading partners' currencies, making its cars and machine tools far more expensive around the globe. Asia will have another reason to make its own machinery.

    Overnight, Germany will lose its status as a conqueror on world markets. Its enormous trade surplus, the source of its prosperity, would quickly vanish.

    "Once the German surpluses are gone, the country would fall into a severe recession," says prominent Greek economist Yanis Varoufakis. Germany has succeeded in the past decade of becoming highly competitive not just by maintaining a relatively cheap currency, but by limiting the growth in wages. But that policy created a large contingent of working poor, people who have jobs but also qualify for welfare payments because of their low salaries. "To restore competitiveness after their currency appreciates, German companies would need lower costs by laying off workers. So exiting the euro risks turning the working poor into the unemployed," says Varoufakis.

    It's certain that Merkel is acutely aware of the price of clinging to principle. Hence, the probable outcome is the following: The ECB and the EFSF won't succeed at holding down rates for long. The moment of reckoning will indeed arrive. And Germany will make a grand and historic concession to protect the eurozone, the system that so enriched it, and despite its grand ambitions, did nothing to improve the performance of the weak partners now desperately seeking its help in return.