年度汽车大奖大预测
ALEX TAYLOR III | 2011-09-20 11:59
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年度汽车大奖的评选还有几个月才开始，但让我们不妨提前预测一下今年的热门候选车型。
评委的选择 “年度汽车大奖”投票要到2012年初才举行，现在就开始猜哪个品牌和车型将夺得大奖是不是为时过早？ 当然不是。毕竟，今年奥斯卡奖刚落幕那一瞬间，有关明年谁会获奖的传言就流传开了。为什么汽车界的大奖就应该有所不同呢？ 遴选年度最重要的汽车绝非毫无意义。设计者和工程师为汽车呕心沥血，这种评选能证明他们的能力，为他们的工作履历增光添彩。而对营销人员来说，大奖能为他们提供极具价值的第三方认可，它能有效地用于荐证广告（advertising testimonials，源自美国联邦交易委员会制定的《荐证广告行为指引》（Guides Concerning Use of Endorsements and Testimonials in Advertising——译注）。而对汽车业而言，大奖能提高行业的影响力，在车展处于低潮的秋末初冬时期带来潜在的销售增长。 最引人瞩目的两项大奖是：“汽车趋势”大奖（Motor Trend's），由《汽车趋势》杂志（Motor Trend）编辑评选的；“北美年度汽车”大奖（North American Car of the Year (NACOTY)），由50位记者（包括笔者在内）组成的评委会评选。本文列出了一些得票最高的候选车型，并附上了笔者预测的的胜出几率。 | Picks from the oddsmaker Is it too soon to start speculating about which brand and model will take home car of the year honors when the votes are counted early in 2012? Heck no. After all, buzz about next year's Academy Award winners starts within microseconds after the ceremony for the current year concludes. Why should cars be any different? Selecting the most important auto for a given calendar year no empty exercise. For the designers and engineers who worked on the car, it brings a resume-enhancing validation of their skills. For marketers, the award provides a high-value third-party endorsement that can be used effectively in advertising testimonials. And for the industry, it generates publicity and a potential sales lift in the late fall and early winter when showroom activity is slow. The two most prominent awards are Motor Trend's, chosen by the magazine's editors, and North American Car of the Year (NACOTY), selected by a panel of 50 journalists (including me). Here are some of the top candidates and my guesses about their odds for winning the big prize. |
奥迪汽车A6/A7
奥迪汽车A6/A7 在棒球比赛中，“最具价值球员大奖”通常都会授予冠军球队的球员。“年度汽车大奖”的投票人也喜欢选出一位赢家。奥迪（Audi）凭借推出一系列新车型，销售收入一直节节攀高。奥迪A7以其极具创意的掀背式设计，获得了最多青睐。 胜出几率：A7 5-2; A6 7-1 | Audi A6/A7 In baseball, the Most Valuable Player award generally goes to a player on a pennant-contending team. Car of the Year voters like to go with a winner too. Audi has been rolling up sales gains with impressive new model launches. The A7 is the favorite here for its innovative hatchback design. Odds: A7 5-2; A6 7-1 |
大众汽车 帕萨特/甲壳虫
大众汽车 帕萨特/甲壳虫 大众汽车（VW）开始认真对待美国市场，并在田纳西州建立了装配厂，因此赢得了高分。长久以来，甲壳虫（Beetle）一直是车迷们的最爱：1999年它就赢得了“北美年度汽车”大奖，而它现在更富动感的设计应该能吸引男性投票人。而帕萨特（Passat）则显得有点平淡无味。 胜出几率：帕萨特 15-1; 甲壳虫 8-1 | Volkswagen Passat/Beetle VW gets points for getting serious about the U.S. market and opening an assembly plant in Tennessee. It's a longtime enthusiast favorite: The New Beetle took home NACOTY honors in 1999, and its racier design should appeal to male voters. The Passat may be a bit too tame. Odds: Passat 15-1; Beetle 8-1 |
菲亚特汽车500 Coupe/Cabriolet 没有什么比可爱讨巧的外形更能吸引选票了，而低油耗的菲亚特500正好可爱至极。菲亚特汽车（Fiat）重新打入美国市场的历程——迄今是成功的——足够写出引人入胜的故事情节来。如果500能避免重大的质量问题，它会是个有力的竞争者。 胜出几率：8-1 | Fiat 500 Coupe/Cabriolet Nothing attracts votes like cute, and the fuel-sipping 500 is as cute as they come. Fiat's reentry into the U.S. market -- so far successfully -- makes for an appealing story line. If the 500 avoids any big quality problems, it could be a contender. Odds: 8-1 |
塞恩汽车 iQ让评委们终于有机会把掌声送给真正创新的微车了。但事实上，正像菲亚特500一样，iQ已经在欧洲销售了几年，而对它的陌生感会对它有所不利。除非现在油价又重回每加仑4美元…… 胜出几率：10-1 | Scion iQ Voters get a chance to give a shout-out to a genuinely innovative microcar, but the fact that the iQ, like the 500, has been on sale in Europe for several years and its sheer strangeness weigh against it. Now if gasoline was back over $4 a gallon... Odds: 10-1 |
福特福克斯
福特福克斯 眼下，各界一致喝彩，福特汽车（Ford）公司正春风得意，而福克斯（Focus）正是首席执行官艾伦•穆拉利推出的首款真正的“一个福特”（One Ford）的全球车型。但是，一开始大家对这款车的评价并不热烈，而它的销量也有点让人失望。1990年，福克斯曾经夺得“北美年度汽车”大奖，但要重夺大奖似乎希望渺茫。 胜出几率：25-1 | Ford Focus Ford is floating on a cloud of favorable publicity, and the Focus is CEO Alan Mulally's first real One Ford global car. Early reviews though, have not been uniformly enthusiastic, and sales have been a bit disappointing. Focus took NACOTY honors back in 1990 but don't look for a repeat. Odds: 25-1 |
雷克萨斯 CT 200h
雷克萨斯 CT 200h 雷克萨斯（luxury）可能是美国最畅销的豪华车品牌之一，但是它从来没有哪怕一款车曾经获得过上述大奖，而CT 200h也不太可能改变这一局面。尽管外形靓丽，评论界对它的混合动力传动系统却鲜有好评，这一系统是直接从普锐斯（Prius）上挪用而来的。 胜出几率：25-1 | Lexus CT 200h It may rank among the best-selling luxury brands in the U.S., but no Lexus has ever won one of these awards, and the CT 200h isn't likely to change that. Despite its dashing looks, reviewers have heaped faint praise on its hybrid powertrain that comes straight from the Prius. Odds: 25-1 |
Mini Cooper轿跑
Mini Cooper轿跑 2003年，Mini Cooper的原型车曾荣获“北美年度汽车”大奖，但这辆非凡小车的创新气息正在削弱。这辆仅有两座的微型轿跑售价比四座的Mini掀背还高，与当前的经济形势背道而驰。 胜出几率：50-1 | Mini Cooper Coupe NACOTY recognized the original Mini Cooper in 2003, but the novelty of a premium minicar is wearing thin. The tiny coupe, which seats only two, is priced higher than the four-seat Mini hatch, which goes against the current economic grain. Odds: 50-1 |
丰田汽车普锐斯V 丰田汽车（Toyota）受到经济衰退、召回和地震等接二连三的打击，迄今仍未开拓出一片充满希望的前景，而普锐斯V（Prius V）也未必能带来多大改观——尽管它是首款旅行车式的专用混合动力车型。2004年，第二代普锐斯赢得了上述两项大奖，但这个品牌在美国的主要地区并未获得太多认可。 胜出几率：50-1 | Toyota Prius V Despite being battered by recession, recalls, and earthquakes, Toyota hasn't developed into a feel-good story yet and won't get much help from the Prius V -- despite its status as the first wagon-like dedicated hybrid. The second-generation Prius won both awards in 2004, but the brand doesn't command much respect in the heartland. Odds: 50-1 |
别克Verano 眼下，别克汽车（Buick）正在经历复兴，而今年秋季，当紧凑型的Verano大量上市时，它应该能大幅提高销售额。但作为基于雪佛兰“克鲁兹”（Cruze）平台开发的车型，它们太过相似了，而且投票人也很难忽略别克以前推出的各种古怪车型。 胜出几率：60-1 | Buick Verano Buick is enjoying a revival, and the compact Verano should significantly boost sales volume when it arrives in significant numbers this fall. But it is a bit too close to the Chevy Cruze on which it's based, and voters won't be ready to overlook all those geezer cars from Buick's past. Odds: 60-1 |
马自达汽车3/5 马自达（Mazda）一向以尺寸合适的聪明设计以小制胜，但是很少能真正获得完胜。马自达3以作为“驾驶者之车”而见长，而马自达5则作为超微型面包车脱颖而出。但是，要赢得大奖，马自达需要再来一辆Miata（马自达的著名双座小跑车——译注）来参与角逐，但是今年它没有推出这样的车。 胜出几率：60-1 | Mazda 3/5 Mazda punches above its weight with smart designs that are right-sized but seldom scores a knockout. The 3 excels as a driver's car, and the 5 is a standout mini-minivan. But Mazda needs another Miata to win a title, and it doesn't have it this year. Odds: (joint entry): 60-1 |
克莱斯勒300/SRT-8 菲亚特公司执掌大局，克莱斯勒汽车迎来复兴，这个故事同样令人振奋。克莱斯勒300比其原型的“黑帮最爱车型”（gangsta car）远为精致，这一车型2005年曾夺得两项大奖。但是，这一改款并无多少创新之处，而300出现在已经日薄西山的大型车阵营里也让人伤感。 胜出几率：75-1 | Chrysler 300/SRT-8 Chrysler's revival under Fiat management is another feel-good story, and the 300 is far more refined than the original gangsta car, which swept both honors in 2005. But there is not much that is original here, and the 300's presence in the dying large-car segment hurts. Odds: 75-1 |
本田思域 本田汽车（Honda）原本是小型车迷们的不二之选，也是各项大奖评选的常客，但最近它一直郁郁不得志，思域（Civic）也不太可能改变大局。这款车负面评价太多，投票人也不愿意挑战大家的看法。 胜出几率：90-1 | Honda Civic A default choice for small car fans and a frequent candidate for top honors, Honda has been in a funk lately, and the Civic isn't likely to change that. It has had too many negative reviews and voters hate to defy conventional wisdom. Odds: 90-1 |
保时捷911 狂热的车迷们看到911就会欣喜若狂，如果价格不成问题的话，这款2012大幅改款的车型很容易拔得头筹。但是，评审们过去就因为放任自己孩子般的竞速本能而一直受到诟病，因此，他们不得不收敛对这辆最新款飞车象征的偏爱。 胜出几率：100-1 | Porsche 911 Enthusiasts swoon over 911s, and if price were no object, the strikingly redesigned 2012 would be an easy finalist. But jurors have been called out in the past for letting their boy-racer instincts direct them, so their affections for the latest generation iconic speedster will have to remain bridled. Odds: 100-1 |
梅赛德斯奔驰 CLS 尽管外形眩目，性能超群，但仅仅是只供少数人专享这一点就会让这辆第二代四门轿跑无缘多数人的最爱车型。2004年，这辆在设计上艳惊四座的概念车首次亮相，当时就无缘大奖。现在，除非年度汽车大奖是专为价格超过8万美元的车而设的…… 胜出几率：100-1 译者：清远 | Mercedes-Benz CLS Exclusivity alone keeps this second-generation four-door coupe from among the favorites despite its stunning looks and peerless performance. Mercedes missed its chance in 2004 when this striking design concept made its debut. Now if the car of the year award were for best car over $80,000... Odds: 100-1 |
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