收入不均正拖累美国经济发展
Laura Lorenzetti | 2014-08-08 17:22
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[译文]

Income inequality has been the topic of vigorous debate this year from Thomas Piketty’s breakdown of the issue in his best-selling book, “Capital in the Twenty-First Century,” to President Obama’s campaign for a higher minimum wage.
Everyone has a central question: Is income inequality holding back the U.S. economy?
A new report by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services says yes.
“The current level of income inequality in the U.S. is dampening GDP growth,” the researchers wrote, “at a time when the world’s biggest economy is struggling to recover from the Great Recession and the government is in need of funds to support an aging population.”
The data isn’t necessarily new, but the series of charts makes salient and concise arguments as to what’s been driving the trend and the impact it could be having on economic growth.
U.S. incomes are becoming more concentrated. This is typically shown using a Gini coefficient, a measure of income distribution and thus income inequality. A higher number means the gap between top and bottom earners is getting further apart, which is the trend we’re seeing over the last several decades.
收入不均衡一直是今年的热门讨论话题,无论是托马斯•皮凯蒂在其畅销书《21世纪的资本》(Capital in the Twenty-First Century)中对这一问题的剖析,还是美国总统奥巴马提高最低工资标准的行动,我们都能看到它的身影。
人们所关心的核心问题是:收入不均衡是否会拖累美国经济?
标普评级(Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services)发布的一篇新报告对此予以了肯定的回答。
研究人员写道,“在当前,美国这个世界最大的经济体正挣扎着走出大萧条阴影,而政府又急需资金为人口的老龄化买单,因此,美国目前的收入不均衡水平正在抑制GDP的增长。”
相关数据并不一定是最新的,但是一系列图表却简单明了地总结了这一趋势背后的推手,以及可能对经济增长造成的影响。
美国个人收入正呈现出集中化趋势。当我们使用基尼系数来衡量时,这一趋势尤为明显。该系数是用来衡量收入分配的指标,因此也能衡量收入的不均衡性。基尼系数越高,最高收入和最低收入的差距也就越大,而这正是我们在过去数十年中所看到的趋势。

Not only do the affluent have higher incomes, but they also tend to save more of what they earn instead of spending it. That means that as more of the nation’s income goes to top earners, the less gets passed around the economy in the form of spending. There isn’t enough demand for goods and services to prop up strong growth.
Trying to drive the gap in demand with debt creates the boom-bust cycle, which can further push down bottom earners by depleting wealth.
有钱人不仅收入高,而且还倾向于更多的去存钱而不是花钱。这意味着随着国家的收入越来越向高收入人群集中,那么通过消费而回流至经济中的钱就会越来越少。因此,商品和服务的需求就会呈现疲态,难以支撑经济的强劲增长。
通过债务来弥合需求缺口会带来超涨超跌循环,而这种循环将耗尽底层收入人群的财富,将他们进一步推向深渊。

The solution? Education, according to the researchers.
By boosting education growth rates to those seen in the mid-20th century, meaning if the U.S. workforce gained a year’s equivalent of education over five years, the nation’s GDP would be 2.4% higher over that time period than otherwise.
解决办法何在?研究人员给出的答案是:教育。
如果人们的受教育程度的增长速率能够提升至20世纪中叶的水平,也就是说,如果美国劳动力在5年内有一年的时间在接受教育,那么美国那一段时期的GDP增速就会比正常水平高2.4个百分点。

There’s one catch. More people with college degrees would mean more people competing for higher-paying jobs.
Short term, the competition could slow wage gains for those with post-secondary degrees as more people compete for a set number of jobs. But that would help those lower down the education spectrum catch up on pay as the economy gains steam from increased output.
Essentially, it would squeeze inequality to a more manageable gap.
值得注意的一点是,获得大学文凭的人越多,高薪工作的竞争就会越激烈。
在短期内,对于拥有大专文凭的人士来说,竞争可能会放缓工资的增长速度,因为工作岗位的数量是一定的,但竞争的人却越来越多。然而,随着经济因产出的增加而获得增长动力,这将有助于受教育水平不高的人群缩小收入差距。
最终,收入的不均衡性将被限制在一个更为可控的区间内。(财富中文网)
译者:翔
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