Mobile gadgets won't just be tucked into your purse or your pocket. Soon, they'll increasingly be on your wrist, as part of your glasses and even in your clothing. While still in its infancy, wearable technology is poised to take off. The market for the wearables business is expected to exceed $1.5 billion in 2014, double its value last year, according to a report from Juniper Research.

    Unlike other parts of the consumer electronics market, the wearables category is made up of many small segments, with wearable fitness bands currently leading the way in consumer adoption. But the wearable band market is growing fast, according to a forecast by Canalys, and more than 17 million wearable fitness bands will be sold this year. That figure is estimated to reach 23 million by 2015 and more than 45 million by 2017.

    Fitness and health remains the leading application for wearable technology.

    "It is still dominant because [fitness and health] is what we are most concerned with," said Julie Sylvester, producer of the Sports & Fitness Tech Summit at the annual International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. "People are much more likely to incorporate trackers and heart rate monitors into their daily routine and accessories."

    The more fashionable -- or conversely, the more "invisible" -- trackers and monitors will expand beyond the early adopters, Sylvester said, to the general consumer "who is not adopting the newest trend or is interested from a professional level, but is actually interested in monitoring their health and fitness from a preventive state of mind or if there is a specific health concern."

    The market for the power behind all these devices will also see a significant boost. Worldwide revenue for wearable electronics batteries will reach $77 million by 2018, according to IHS Technology, up from just $6 million this year.

    The market in its infancy has been dominated by numerous startups, including Pebble, Fitbit, and Jawbone. But a number of tech giants -- including Apple (AAPL), Samsung, and Google (GOOG) -- are just now entering the space. And Intel's (INTC) acquisition of smartwatch maker Basis Science last week -- for a reported $100 million -- demonstrates continued interest in the wearables market.

    Though Google Glass -- the "smart" glasses that place a postage-size screen in the line of sight of the wearer -- is still limited in its availability, a recent deal with Luxottica stands to change that. Google has also introduced Android Wear, a version of its popular mobile operating system that can be licensed by a number of hardware partners, including Google's soon-to-be former subsidiary Motorola and partner LG but also Samsung, Asus, Broadcom, Fossil, HTC, Intel, Mediatek, MIPS, and Qualcomm (QCOM).

    移动设备将不再只是装在提包或衣服口袋里的玩意儿了。很快它们将越来越多地出现在你的手腕上，或是变成眼镜，甚至是衣服的一部分。虽然可穿戴设备目前仍然处于襁褓之中，但它的腾飞已经蓄势待发。根据瞻博研究公司（Juniper Research）的一份报告，2014年可穿戴设备的市值将超过15亿美元，比去年翻一番。

    与其它消费电子产品不同的是，可穿戴设备市场是由很多小的细分市场构成的，目前消费者用得最多的是健身智能腕带。不过根据市调机构Canalys的预测，健身智能腕带市场正在迅速增长，今年健身智能腕带的销量可能将超过1700万个。到2015年，这个数字将达到2300万，2017年将超过4500万。

    健身和保健目前仍然是可穿戴技术最主要的应用领域。

    运动与健身科技峰会（Sports & Fitness Tech Summit）的发起人朱莉•希尔维斯特在今年洛杉矶的国际消费电子展（International Consumer Electronics Show）上指出：“它之所仍然处于主导地位，主要是由于健身和保健是我们最关心的话题。人们更倾向于接受计步器和心率监视器进入他们的日常生活，成为生活中的日常用品。”

    希尔维斯特表示，这种更加时尚的，或者说更加“隐型”的计步器和心率监视器，将从早期采用者逐步扩展到那些“既不追逐潮流、也不专业，但是从预防疾病的角度关心健身和心率问题”的一般消费者。

    可穿戴设备的电池市场也将迎来一波显著的增长。根据HIS科技公司的预测，到2018年，全球可穿戴电子设备的电池市场市值将达到7700万美元，而今年这个市场的市值仅仅有600万美元。

    这个仍处于襁褓中的市场的主力军是数不清的创业公司，比如Pebble、Fibit和Jawbone等等。但是包括苹果（Apple）、三星（Samsung）和谷歌（Google）在内的不少科技巨头已经开始进场。英特尔（Intel）上周以1亿美元的价格收购了智能手表制造商Basis Science，也表明了它继续进军可穿戴市场的兴趣。

    虽然谷歌眼镜（也就是传说中在佩戴者眼前有一块邮票大小的显示屏的“智能”眼镜）仍然受限于易用性问题，但谷歌最近与专业眼镜制造公司陆逊梯卡集团（Luxottica）的合作可能会改变这种局面。另外谷歌还发布了Android Wear系统，也就是Android系统的可穿戴版本，采用这个系统的硬件厂商包括很快将成为谷歌“弃儿”的摩托罗拉，以及LG、三星、华硕（Asus）、博通（Broadcom）、Fossil、HTC、英特尔（Intel）、联发科技（Mediatek）、MIPS和高通（Qualcomm）等。NextMarket Insight公司首席分析师迈克尔•沃尔夫说：“今年可穿戴设备的催化剂可能就是Android Wear，它是针对智能手表专门优化的系统。现在的一个大问题是：苹果会作何反应？”

    That part of the equation remains unanswered, though Apple retains a U.S. patent for "Wrist Pedometer Step Detection," suggesting that the Cupertino, Calif.-based company is looking to create something -- devotees are calling it the iWatch -- along the lines of Nike's FuelBand or the Fitbit.

    It remains to be seen whether wearables will significantly cannibalize existing product categories, Wolf said.

    "For now the leading category will likely be smartwatches, but as Google Glass suggests, it could become much broader and in time even be in the clothing we wear," Wolf said. "Most of the companies developing smartwatches see this as a product that accompanies a smartphone as opposed to any sort of replacement. Certainly the big players view this as a device used with a smartphone, but there could be some cannibalization of other devices. The basic fitness bands will be hit hard, because any time you have a limited product it could be overtaken by the more general products."

    Smaller, niche players must grow or face challenging market forces, said Shane Walker, associate director for Digital Health Research at IHS.

    "In sports and fitness there has been a lot of competition," Walker said. "There could still be growth in the activity and heart rate monitors, but the 'me too' type of devices will find it hard to stick around."

    But for the market to really grow, it will need a breakthrough, "must-have" product, said Rob Enderle, principal analyst for the Enderle Group.

    "Right now wearable [product] volumes are around where MP3 players were pre-iPod, and the success surrounds products like the FitBit and Nike offerings focused on exercise," Enderle said. "It is a decent market but well short of potential. With the right product, this market could grow to rival or even replace the smartphone market, but the right product hasn't emerged yet and Steve Jobs isn't around to repeat the iPod cycle. So, for now, it is limited to exercise and health care, the potential is there for more -- but we need an iPod-, iPhone-, iPad-like effort to achieve that potential."

    Is that kind of push in the cards? If the business opportunity is to be believed, it's entirely possible, Wolf said.

    "Wearables has the potential from units sold as a category to be bigger than tablets," Wolf said. "It is a much more expansive category. 'Wearables' could be VR headsets. It could be a watch. It could be something on your hip or technology in your clothing. The hurdles to get in on this market are low, so there is going to be serious expansion of the category over the next decade. Yes, that overall pie is going to get a lot bigger."

    这个问题目前还没有答案，不过苹果在美国拥有一项名叫“腕式步态检测计步器”的专利。它表明，苹果公司有可能会继耐克（Nike）的“能量手环”和Fitbit腕带后，研发出一款被迫不及待的果粉提前命名为“iWatch”的新产品。

    沃尔夫表示，可穿戴设备是否会显著蚕食现有产品类别的市场，目前仍然有待观察。

    沃尔夫说：“目前来看，智能手表可能将成为走在最前面的一种可穿戴设备。但谷歌眼镜的例子也表明，可穿戴设备的范畴可能会广泛得多。随着时间的推移，甚至连我们穿的衣服都有可能智能化。”目前大多数公司都把智能手表当成跟智能手机配对的一个配件来开发，而不是把它当成智能手机的替代品。虽然很多大厂商都把可穿戴设备和智能手机搭配使用，但可穿戴设备仍然存在蚕食其它设备的市场的可能。首先是基本的健身腕带将遭受沉重的打击，因为不管什么时候，只要你的产品功能有限，就会被更加全面的产品超越。”

    HIS公司数码健康副主任谢恩•沃克认为，小型化的小众产品如果不继续增长，就会遭到市场上其他力量的挑战。

    沃尔称：“运动和健身领域的竞争已经很激烈了，计步器和心率监视这一块虽然可能还有增长空间，但是千篇一率同类产品将很难在市场上站住脚。”

    不过恩德勒集团（Enderle Group）的首席分析师罗伯•恩德勒指出，这个市场要想真正增长，还需要一款突破性产品，一款消费者“非买不可”的产品。

    恩德勒说：“现在可穿戴市场的产品总量基本上和iPod问世之前的MP3播放器差不多，而像FitBit和耐克的产品主要围绕着健身功能。它虽然是个不错的市场，但是很缺乏潜力。有了正确的产品，这个市场就有可能与智能手机相匹敌，甚至取代智能手机市场。但目前这个正确的产品还没出现，而且也没有乔布斯式的人物来重演iPod的奇迹。所以目前可穿戴设备主要局限在健身和保健领域，但是它的潜力是广阔的。但是我们需要的是一款像iPod、iPhone或iPad这样能实现这个潜力的产品。”

    这是不是有点赌运气的感觉？对此沃尔夫表示，如果你相信这个商机，它就完全有可能。

    沃尔夫认为：“可穿戴设备的销量拥有超过平板电脑的潜力，它是一个更加广阔的产品类别。‘可穿戴设备’可以是虚拟现实头盔，可以是手表，可以是挂在腰上的东西，甚至是可以穿在衣服上的技术。这个市场的门槛很低，所以未来十年，这个类别将出现重大增长。而且总体上可穿戴市场这个大蛋糕会变得大得多。”（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎