The moment to be most fearful is when everybody else is blissfully unconcerned. That bit of investing wisdom comes courtesy of Warren Buffett, and by that standard, as stock indexes set new records and once-traumatized investors pile back into equities, we should be very, very cautious. The market is seemingly overdue for a breather (if not a full-fledged swoon), so it's the perfect time to take advantage of insights from investors who have thrived in good times and bad. To that end, we've assembled stock ideas from an eclectic assortment of top mutual fund managers. They've chosen low-priced values and roaring fast-growers; small fry and behemoths; U.S. companies and distant players. The one commonality: the superior long-term records of the people selecting the stocks. Because nothing beats experience, especially when times are good.

A time-tested group of elite fund managers offer their best stock ideas for 2014.

别人贪婪的时候要恐惧。这条投资哲理是拜沃伦•巴菲特所赐。按照这样的原则，在股指创新历史高、曾经遭到打击的投资者再次成群结队地重返股市的时候，我们就应该非常、非常小心。市场似乎早就应该稍作喘息了（甚至是进行全面休整），而这正是一个绝佳的机会，可以听一听那些无论在顺境和逆境中都表现出色的投资者有哪些想法，进而加以利用。为此，我们从顶尖的共同基金经理那里收集了各种各样的炒股思路。他们推荐的有价格较低的价值股，也有势头迅猛的成长股，有小型企业，也有庞然大物，有美国本土公司，也有来自海外的企业。其中的共性是：荐股者都有出众的长期业绩。经验压倒一切，特别是在牛市当中。

一批经受住了时间考验的精英基金经理人提供了2014年最佳的炒股思路。

Vitamin Shoppe

Frank Sustersic
Turner Emerging Growth
Ticker: (VSI)
Category: Health & nutrition

Small can be sublime. So it is for the $260 million Turner Emerging Growth Fund(TMCGX), run since 1998 by Frank Sustersic. During that time it has delivered 18.9% annualized returns, obliterating the 9.1% average for Morningstar's small-growth category. His current favorite stock: Vitamin Shoppe, the national retail chain that sells supplements, vitamins, and weight-loss products. "I love to find stocks that are growing irrespective of what's happening with the economy," says Sustersic, who notes that many consumers are seeking holistic health approaches. Vitamin Shoppe's stock has slipped 6% in 2013 because of slowing sales growth at existing stores and missing a target for a 10% increase in new-store openings. Sustersic thinks investors have overreacted. "The store count will still be up 8% or 9%," he says. Sales at existing stores edged up 2.6% last quarter, below the company's usual 6%-plus. Sustersic contends the quarterly comparisons were tough due to gangbuster 2012 sales of "metabolism boosters" promoted by TV's Dr. Oz. "The quarterly comparisons become much easier going forward," says Sustersic. "The reality is that most retailers would kill for 2.6% comps anyway." --J.B.

Vitamin Shoppe
 
弗兰克•萨斯特思科
特纳新兴增长基金
交易代码：VSI
行业：保健和营养品

浓缩的都是精华。规模仅为2.60亿美元的特纳新兴增长基金（Turner Emerging Growth，交易代码：TMCGX）就是如此。1998年弗兰克•萨斯特思科开始担任经理人至今，这只基金的年化回报率高达18.9%，远远超过晨星公司（Morningstar）统计的小型增长基金9.1%的平均值。目前萨斯特思科看好的股票是Vitamin Shoppe。这是一家全国性连锁零售商，销售营养品、维生素和减肥产品。萨斯特思科说：“我喜欢那些无论经济形势如何都能不断增长的股票。”他指出，许多消费者都在寻找实现全面健康的方法。2013年Vitamin Shoppe的股价下跌了6%，原因是现有零售店的营业额增速放慢以及开店数量未达到10%的增长目标。萨斯特思科认为投资者反应过于激烈，他预计：“开店数量仍然可以增长8%或9%。”上个季度，这家公司现有零售店营业额小幅上升了2.6%，低于通常6%以上的水平。萨斯特思科认为，得益于电视节目Dr.Oz的推广，促进新陈代谢产品在2012年的销售额增长迅猛，这让该公司在上个季度很难再有什么作为。他说：“今后季度业绩实现增长将变得容易得多。实际上，大多数零售商都会不惜一切代价来实现2.6%的增长。” --J.B.

Hain Celestial

Kimberly Scott
Waddell & Reed New Concepts
Ticker: (HAIN)
Category: Health & nutrition

Burgeoning trends at a reasonable price. That's Kimberly Scott's philosophy. Her Waddell & Reed New Concepts Fund (UNECX) has averaged 11.5% returns over the past decade, better than 95% of its peers, and these days she favors Hain Celestial. The case starts with the exploding appeal of the kind of natural and organic foods the company sells. It ain't justWhole Foods (WFM, Fortune 500) either, she notes; traditional grocers are devoting more shelf space to the category. Plus, Scott says, Hain has been smart about adding innovative brands like the British baby-food maker Ella's Kitchen, acquired in May, to its existing lineup. (Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) began stocking Ella's squeezable pouches at its 4,000 U.S. stores last month.) Hain's earnings have been mounting at close to 40% for the past three years, and analysts project another three to five years of 15% EPS increases. What's more, Scott says, Hain Celestial is the "rare" growth company with a focus on squeezing productivity and profits from its manufacturing operations and supply chain. The upshot: Her "conservative" projections have the stock, currently trading around $85, reaching $135 in the next four years. --S.M.

Hain Celestial
 
金伯莉•斯科特
Waddell & Reed新概念基金
交易代码：HAIN
行业：保健和营养品

势头迅猛，价格合理。这就是金伯莉•斯科特的投资哲学。10年来，Waddell & Reed新概念基金（Waddell & Reed New Concepts Fund，交易代码：UNECX）在她的带领下实现了11.5%的平均回报率，好于95%的同类基金。目前斯科特看好Hain Celestial。首先，这是因为这家公司销售的天然有机食品有着极具爆发性的吸引力。但她指出，Hain Celestial不仅仅是全食公司（Whole Foods，交易代码：WFM，《财富》500强）那样的企业，传统杂货商都在增加天然有机食品的销售比重。Hain Celestial的聪明之处在于，它在自己销售的商品中不断地加入一些创新型品牌。比如5月份被该公司收购的英国婴儿食品生产商Ella’s Kitchen（从上个月开始，Ella’s Kitchen的婴儿果泥产品开始进入美国的4000家沃尔玛（Wal-Mart ，交易代码：WMT，《财富》500强）超市。3年来，Hain Celestial的盈利增幅一直接近40%。分析师还预计，今后3-5年该公司的每股收益还将以15%的速度增长。斯科特说，此外，Hain Celestial很重视发掘制造业务和供应链的生产率，这在成长型公司中“很少见”。结论：她保守预计，这家公司的股价将在4年内从目前的约85美元上涨到135美元。--S.M.

PepsiCo

Don Yacktman
Yacktman/Yacktman Focused
Ticker: (PEP, Fortune 500)
Category: Consumer

Slow and steady has always been the recipe for Don Yacktman's world-beating results. (His $13.5 billion namesake (YACKX) and $11.7 billion Focused Fund (YAFFX) have both returned about 11% a year for a decade, crushing the S&P (SPX) by 3.2 percentage points a year.) His strategy: Buy great companies when they're out of favor and hold them, more or less forever. With the market regularly hitting new highs, Yacktman and son and co-manager Stephen are craving comfort food. "We're focused on defense more than offense," Stephen says, and PepsiCo promises just about the best "risk-adjusted" returns out there. Between dividends and stock buybacks, the company is paying shareholders 4.5% to 5% in cash. Add in anticipated growth from price increases and 2% to 3% unit volume increases and you can expect to earn 9% to 10%, Stephen argues. Given Pepsi's stranglehold on the snack-food aisle and its forward thinking about healthy alternatives, that return won't be nibbled away over time. "Think of it like buying an undervalued triple-A bond," says Don. "It's not very exciting, but that's the point: You sleep at night when the wind blows." --S.M.

百事公司

唐•亚克曼
亚克曼基金/亚克曼焦点基金
交易代码：PEP，《财富》500强
行业：消费品

唐•亚克曼的经营业绩独步全球的秘诀一直都是温和和稳定【他管理的亚克曼基金（规模为135亿美元，交易代码：YACKX）和焦点基金（规模为117亿美元，交易代码：YAFFX）10年来的年均回报率都在11%左右，远远胜过标普500指数（交易代码：SPX）3.2%的水平】。亚克曼的策略是，在大公司不受市场青睐时买进、持有它们的股票，而且基本上是永久持有。在市场屡创新高的情况下，亚克曼和他的儿子、基金联席经理史蒂芬•亚克曼一直在寻找让人放心的投资标的。史蒂芬说：“我们更注重防御性，而不是攻击性。”而剔除风险因素后，百事公司（PepsiCo）所承诺的正是他们眼中的最佳回报。通过分红和回购股票，百事公司将向股东返还4.5%-5%的现金。史蒂芬指出，加上预期中的股价上涨和2%-3%的销量增长，回报率应该可以达到9%-10%。考虑到百事在快餐领域的垄断地位以及它前瞻性地想到了推出健康饮品来取代原有产品，这样的回报率不会随着时间的推移而逐渐下降。唐指出：“你可以把这当作买进一只估值偏低的AAA级债券，它不会让你感到非常兴奋，但这就是关键所在：就算外面狂风呼啸，你也可以睡个安稳觉。”--S.M.

Target
 
Meggan Walsh
Invesco Diversified
Ticker: (TGT, Fortune 500)
Category: Retail

By many accounts, Target botched its 2013 incursion into Canada. When the first of the retailer's planned 124 Canadian stores opened in March, it was hampered by high prices and limited supplies. That's one reason Target's shares have underperformed the S&P by 50% this year. But Meggan Walsh, who runs the $8.7 billion Invesco Diversified Dividend Fund (LCEAX), thinks the episode has been blown out of proportion. Her fund, which has averaged 8.7% annualized returns over a decade, vs. 7.8% for the S&P, looks for undervalued dividend-payers. "The problems have been identified, and we're at the point where shareholders will begin to benefit from the investments," she says. With the Canadian push behind it, she adds, Target will reduce capital expenditures by $1 billion next year and is likely to pass the extra cash to shareholders. And because Target's customers have higher average incomes and do more discretionary spending than the competition's, Walsh expects better same-store sales. That, she argues, will help nudge its forward P/E ratio from 14 back toward its 10-year average of 15.5. --S.M.

塔吉特公司
 
梅根•沃尔什
Invesco多元化基金
交易代码：TGT，《财富》500强
行业：零售

从多个角度来说，2013年塔吉特公司（Target）在加拿大开疆拓土是一场悲剧。这家公司计划中的第一家“124 Canadian”零售店3月份开张，随即就陷入价格较高而商品种类有限的困境。塔吉特今年跑输标普指数50%，这是原因之一。但管理着Invesco多元化分红型基金（Invesco Diversified Dividend Fund，规模为87亿美元，交易代码：LCEAX）的梅根•沃尔什认为，塔吉特的走势并不合理。10年来，她的基金实现了8.7%的平均年化回报率，高于标普指数7.8%的水平。这只基金寻找的是估值偏低的分红型公司。沃尔什说：“塔吉特已经知道问题出在哪里，它的股东马上就要从投资中受益了。”她认为，在加拿大方面的帮助下，明年塔吉特的资本开支将减少10亿美元，而且有可能将多余现金返还给股东。和竞争对手相比，光临塔吉特的消费者有着更高的平均收入，在非必需品上的支出也更多。沃尔什因此认为，塔吉特的同店销售额将上升。她指出，这将带动塔吉特的动态市盈率从14倍升至15.5倍的10年平均值。--S.M.

Expedia

Steven Pollack
John Hancock Disciplined Value Mid Cap
Ticker: (EXPE)
Category: Travel

Steven Pollack has three criteria when selecting a stock. The valuation should be enticing; it should be a quality business with attractive free cash flow and return on capital; and there should be a reason to buy the stock now, such as positive momentum or a catalyst to push the stock price higher. Expedia, the online travel firm, "fits all three," says Pollack, whoseJohn Hancock Disciplined Value Mid Cap Fund (JVMAX) has a 28.8% average annual return over five years, vs. 27.3% for the S&P's Midcap 400 index. Expedia trades at 16 times projected 2014 earnings, well below archrival Priceline's P/E ratio of 22. Expedia reported $740 million in free cash flow during the first nine months of 2013, and revenues are growing at a 15% annual clip. Beyond that, Pollack likes the fact that Expedia andPriceline (PCLN, Fortune 500) are becoming an oligopoly, which will discourage new competition. Pollack also sees potential catalysts. Expedia holds controlling stakes in Trivago and eLong, popular travel sites in Europe and China, respectively. "Both Trivago and eLong have significant growth opportunities," Pollack says, "and both could potentially be spun out." --J.B.

Expedia
 
史蒂文• 波拉克
John Hancock自律型价值中盘股基金
交易代码：EXPE
行业：旅游

史蒂文•波拉克有三条选股标准：价值要有吸引力；要属于优质行业，有着诱人的自由现金流和资本回报率；还要有一个立即买入的理由，比如走势良好或者存在推高股价的催化剂。波拉克说，在线旅行服务供应商Expedia“完全满足这三条要求”。他管理的John Hancock自律型价值中盘股基金（John Hancock Disciplined Value Mid Cap Fund，交易代码：JVMAX）5年来的年均回报率为28.8%，而标普400中盘股指数在这期间的回报率为27.3%。按照2014年预期每股收益计算，Expedia目前的市盈率为16倍，远低于主要竞争对手Priceline（交易代码：PCLN，《财富》500强）的22倍。2013年1-9月份Expedia实现自由现金流7.40亿美元，收入同比增长15%。此外，波拉克看好的一点是Expedia和Priceline正在形成寡头垄断，这会遏制新的竞争。他还看到了一些潜在催化剂。Expedia控股Trivago和艺龙（eLong），这两家旅行网站在欧洲和中国市场很受欢迎。波拉克说：“Trivago和艺龙都有极好的成长机会，而且二者都有可能开发衍生业务。” --J.B.

Technip
 
Sarah Ketterer
Causeway International Value
Ticker: (TKPPY)
Category: France

Sarah Ketterer, manager of the $4.5 billion Causeway International Value Fund(CIVVX), is a fan of energy stocks these days, in part because they've lagged. Ketterer, whose fund has averaged 21.2% annual returns over the past five years, vs. 16.3% for its category, blames exaggerated concerns about China for the anemic stock performance: "China is slowing down, but its demand for energy is still very high." Her favorite stock today is Technip, which lays deepwater oil and gas pipelines. The stock trades at a mere 13 times expected 2014 earnings, which analysts project to gush 27%; Technip also offers a 2.1% dividend yield. The stock has slumped 15% since October, and Ketterer blames guilt by association, as two Technip rivals suffered big earnings disappointments. Deepwater pipe-laying is Technip's core business, but Ketterer thinks another specialty will provide long-term windfalls. Given the shale gas boom in the U.S., she expects the country will eventually ship liquefied natural gas to Europe. Technip builds plants that convert natural gas to LNG and LNG back to gas. "They're the best at it in the world," says Ketterer. --J.B.

Technip
 
莎拉•科特尔
Causeway国际价值基金
交易代码：TKPPY
所在地区：法国

莎拉•科特尔管理着规模为45亿美元的Causeway国际价值基金（Causeway International Value Fund，交易代码：CIVVX），最近她所青睐的是能源股，部分原因是能源板块一直处于落后状态。这只基金过去5年的年均回报率为21.2%，高于同类基金16.3%的整体水平。科特尔认为，能源股表现乏力是因为人们过度担心中国的情况，“中国的发展速度正在放慢，但仍然需要大量能源。”目前她看好的股票是从事深水油气管道铺设的Technip。按2014年预期盈利水平计算，Technip目前的市盈率只有13倍。分析师预计，这家公司2014年利润将猛增27%。Technip的股息收益率为2.1%。10月份以来，Technip的股价下跌了15%，科特尔认为这是受到了同类企业的拖累，原因是该公司两大对手的盈利情况非常令人失望。深水管道铺设是Technip的核心业务，但科特尔认为另一项业务将为它带来长期高额收益。考虑到页岩气在美国的蓬勃发展，她认为美国最终将向欧洲输出液化天然气。Technip修建的工厂可以将天然气液化，或者将液化天然气气化。科特尔说：“他们在这方面是世界上最好的公司。” --J.B.

Green REIT

Edwin Lugo
Franklin International Small Cap Growth
Category: Ireland

Green REIT, Ireland's first-ever real estate investment trust, is a good story. It's also a brand-new stock with no history, so it helps that the storyteller is a premier manager: Edwin Lugo, whose $1.5 billion Franklin International Small Cap Growth Fund (FINAX)has returned 25.7% a year over the past five years (see chart above), putting it in the top 2% of its foreign stock-fund category. Green REIT is essentially a vulture fund for Irish real estate. Commercial property prices fell 65% during the financial crisis. As a result, the Irish government and various banks ended up holding €76 billion in foreclosed properties and loans. To speed the recovery, Ireland passed a law permitting REITs; in July, Green became the first to launch there. "Banks are not in the business of managing property," says Lugo, so they're willing to sell "at a huge discount." The timing looks excellent. Irish commercial property prices rose in October for the first time since 2007, just as Green made its first purchases at big discounts to U.S. properties. "It's rare you get a chance to buy real estate at the bottom," says Lugo, who notes that "the Irish economy is already turning around." --J.B.

Green REIT
 
埃德温•卢戈
富兰克林国际小盘股成长型基金
所在地区：爱尔兰

Green REIT是爱尔兰历史上第一只房地产投资基金，是一个好的投资故事。这是一只崭新的证券，没有任何历史，因此由埃德温•卢戈这样一位顶尖基金经理来讲述这个投资故事非常有利。他管理着规模为15亿美元的富兰克林国际小盘股成长型基金（Franklin International Small Cap Growth Fund，交易代码：FINAX），5年来的回报率为25.7%（见上图），在外国股票基金领域处于前2%的位置。实际上，Green REIT是爱尔兰房地产领域的一只秃鹫基金。金融危机期间，爱尔兰商业房地产价格下跌了65%。因此，爱尔兰政府以及多家银行最终持有的是760亿欧元失去赎回权的房地产和贷款。为加快复苏步伐，爱尔兰通过了允许设立房地产投资信托基金（REIT）的法律。7月份，Green REIT成了爱尔兰的第一只REIT。卢戈说：“房地产管理并不属于银行业务”，因此它们愿意“以巨大的折扣”进行转让。这看起来是个绝佳时机。10月份，爱尔兰商业地产价格出现了2007年以来的首次上涨，此时Green REIT刚刚以大幅折扣买了第一批美国房地产。卢戈认为：“在房地产市场抄底的机会非常少，而且爱尔兰的经济已经开始好转。” --J.B.

Volkswagen

Jim Moffett
Scout International
Ticker: (VLKAF)
Category: Germany

Jim Moffett gravitates to out-of-favor stocks, an approach that has delivered an annualized 9.3% for a decade (UMBWX), outperforming the foreign stock index by 1.6 percentage points a year. Lately Moffett's thinking has driven him to the auto industry. He's especially optimistic about Volkswagen because the German automaker has been "lagging the pack" while laying the groundwork for a resurgence. The automaker's recent stall, he says, is partly a reflection of Europe's woeful economy and partly a result of being "out of sync" with the industry. In particular, he says, VW has lacked broadly appealing high-end offerings in the U.S. Now, though, the European economy is showing hints of improvement, and VW plans to roll out new products next year. Meanwhile, he says, the company is reducing costs with its modularized manufacturing strategy, which he expects to show results in the next year. The upshot, Moffett says: The market will eventually perceive the improvement, and VW's stock, currently trading at nine times 2013 expected earnings, will catch up to BMW and Daimler, which have P/Es of 10.5 and 11.5, respectively. --S.M.

大众公司
 
吉姆•莫菲特
Scout国际基金
交易代码：VLKAF
所在地区：德国

吉姆•莫菲特感兴趣的是那些不再受青睐的股票。10年来，这种投资方法给Scout国际基金（Scout International Fund，交易代码：UMBWX）带来了9.3%的年化回报率，比外国股票指数的回报率高1.6个百分点。最近，这样的思路让莫菲特把目光投向了汽车板块。他对大众公司（Volkswagen）特别乐观，原因是后者的表现一直“落后于整个板块”，但已经为再次崛起打好了基础。莫菲特指出，大众最近停滞不前，部分原因是欧洲经济低迷，另一部分原因是和汽车行业“不同步”。他特别提到，大众一直没有在美国推出具有广泛吸引力的高端产品。不过，现在欧洲经济有了一些好转迹象，大众也计划在明年推出新产品。莫菲特说，同时，大众正在通过模块化制造策略削减成本，他预计这项措施明年就会见效。他的结论是，市场最终会看到这些改善，目前2013年预期市盈率为9倍的大众将赶上市盈率10.5倍的宝马（BMW）和11.5倍的戴姆勒（Daimler）。--S.M.

Ezion Holdings

David Semple
Van Eck Emerging Markets
Ticker: (EZIDF)
Category: Singapore

David Semple, manager of the $190 million Van Eck Emerging Markets Fund (GBFAX), enjoys an edge when it comes to energy stocks. His fund family includes two commodity funds, and it employs a team of oil and gas experts whom Semple can tap. That has helped his energy-heavy fund tally a 29.1% average annual return over the past five years, putting it in the top 1% of its category. Semple's current favorite: Ezion Holdings, an oil-services company based in Singapore (but available to U.S. investors through the likes of Fidelity and E*Trade). Semple is betting on rising oil demand in Southeast Asia, and Ezion's earnings growth (up 95% in the first half of 2013), modest valuation (a forward P/E of 8), and unique niche appeal to him. Says Semple: "Oil demand from this region is clearly very strong, and this company seems to be at the center of it." Ezion owns and operates one of the world's largest fleets of "liftboats" -- vessels used to service and repair shallow-water, offshore oil platforms. According to Semple, the Asian market is underserved, with one-seventh the ratio of liftboats to oil platforms compared with the Gulf of Mexico. --J.B.

Ezion Holdings
 
大卫•森普尔
Van Eck新兴市场基金
交易代码：EZIDF
所在地区：新加坡

大卫•森普尔管理的Van Eck新兴市场基金（Van Eck Emerging Markets，交易代码：GBFAX）规模为1.90亿美元，在能源股投资方面具有优势。他还管理着两只大宗商品基金，聘请了一批石油和天然气专家为他出谋划策。得益于这些措施，这只以能源股为主的基金过去5年的年均回报率达到了29.1%，在同类基金中处于前1%的行列。森普尔目前看好Ezion Holdings，这是一家设在新加坡的油田服务公司（美国投资者可以通过Fidelity和E*Trade买卖这只股票）。森普尔预计，东南亚未来的石油需求将上升。对他来说，Ezion Holdings的吸引力在于盈利增长（2013年上半年增幅为95%）、估值适中（动态市盈率8倍）和独特的利基环境。森普尔说：“这个地区的石油需求显然非常旺盛，而这家公司似乎处在这个市场的中心。” Ezion Holdings拥有并经营着世界上最大的“救生船”队——这些船只用于为浅水海上石油平台提供服务和进行维修。森普尔认为，亚洲市场服务供给不足。和美国墨西哥湾地区相比，在亚洲为石油平台提供服务的救生船只有前者的七分之一。-J.B.

China Mobile
 
Brian McMahon
Thornburg Investment Income Builder
Ticker: (CHL)
Category: China

Long viewed as frumpy, dividend stocks enjoyed a vogue in recent years. The category has waxed and waned, but one thing has remained constant: Brian McMahon's outperformance. His $16 billion fund (TIBAX) has turned in annualized 10% returns for 10 years, more than two percentage points above results for the S&P 500 and his "world allocation" peers. China Mobile, the world's largest telecom, follows his template. The stock's dividend yields 4.3%, and it has grown at 6% annually for the past five years. But there's more upside. McMahon says investors have punished the stock (which trades as an ADR in the U.S.) because the Chinese government has forced the company to adopt -- and invest heavily in -- the country's homegrown 4G technology before it was widely used by the telecom industry. The good news, he says: The technology looks promising and is about to launch. "Soon they'll have the most spectrum, the most base stations, and the first shot at this great new technology." The result? He expects the stock, trading at 3.5 times Ebitda, to leap to 4.5 by 2015. That could propel the share price by 40% or more. --S.M.

中国移动
 
布莱恩•麦克马洪
Thornburg投资收益积累基金
交易代码：CHL
所在地区：中国

长期以来被视为狭隘的分红型股票近几年颇受青睐。这些股票的走势起起伏伏，但有件事一直没变：布莱恩•麦克马洪的业绩总是保持领先。他的Thornburg投资收益积累基金（Thornburg Investment Income Builder，交易代码：TIBAX）规模为160亿美元，10年来的年化回报率为10%，比标普500指数以及同类型的“全球配置”基金的表现高2个百分点。中国移动是全球最大的电信公司，很对麦克马洪的胃口。它的股息收益率为4.3%，过去5年的年增长率为6%，而且还有上升空间。麦克马洪说投资者一直在打压这只股票【该公司在美国发行了美国存托凭证（ADR）】，原因是中国政府在电信行业广泛采用国产4G技术前就强制中国移动采用这项技术并投入大量资金。他指出，好消息是这项技术看来前景光明而且就要投入使用。“不久他们就会拥有最宽的频带，最多的基站，而且还能率先先使用这项伟大的新技术。”这会产生什么结果呢？麦克马洪预计，中国移动的股价/息税折旧摊销前利润比率将从目前的3.5倍升至2015年的4.5倍。这有可能让它的股价出现40%甚至更高的增长。--S.M.

Credit Suisse

David Herro
Oakmark International
Ticker: (CS)
Category: Switzerland

Even as investors fled Europe during its sovereign debt crisis, David Herro placed one of the most audacious contrarian bets in recent history, going all-in on beleaguered French, Spanish, and Italian financials. The result: nearly 40% returns over the past 12 months. (The fund's (OAKIX) extended record is also superb: 11.3% annualized returns over the past 15 years, vs. 5.0% for MSCI's EAFE index.) With Europe seemingly off the ledge, Herro now reserves his strongest conviction for Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse, which, he says, is at an "inflection point." Low interest rates and a strong Swiss currency have pushed it to the bottom of its earnings cycle, and the bank has been building reserves to comply with higher post-crisis capital requirements. But those impediments, Herro says, have run their course. The result will be double-digit earnings increases, he says: "Over the coming years it should be able to generate $8 billion in annual operating profits" -- four times the current level. To Herro, that makes the company's forward P/E of 8.8 and price-to-book ratio of 1 look unjustly low. --S.M.

瑞士信贷
 
大卫•赫尔罗
Oakmark国际基金
交易代码：（CS）
所在地区：瑞士

主权债务危机期间，投资者纷纷逃离欧洲市场，大卫•赫尔罗却进行了近些年来最大胆的逆向操作之一，全面买入陷入困境的法国、西班牙和意大利金融股。结果，在过去的12个月中他实现了近40%的回报率【Oakmark国际基金（交易代码：OAKIX）也继续保持着出众的表现：15年来的年化回报率为11.3%，而MSCI欧澳远东指数（EAFE Index）的回报水平为5%】。目前，欧洲似乎已经摆脱困境。在这样的情况下，赫尔罗现在对瑞士银行业巨擘瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）的信心空前高涨。他认为，后者正处在“转折点”上。利率下降和瑞士法郎升值让瑞士信贷触及到了盈利周期的最低点，这家银行一直在增加准备金，以便满足危机过后更高的资本金要求。但赫尔罗认为，这些不利因素的影响已经消失。接下来瑞士信贷的盈利增幅将达到两位数，他说：“今后几年它的年营业利润应该能够达到80亿美元”，是现在的4倍。赫尔罗认为，这让瑞士信贷目前8.8倍的动态市盈率和1倍的市净率显得低得不合理。--S.M.

Agco

Thyra Zerhusen
Aston/Fairpointe Mid Cap
Ticker: (AGCO, Fortune 500)
Category: Agriculture

Thyra Zerhusen likes rummaging through the bargain bin. A year ago two of her biggest holdings were unpopular: medical-device maker Boston Scientific (BSX, Fortune 500)and newspaper publisher New York Times Co. (NYT) The duo have returned 108% and 57%, respectively, so far in 2013. That's one reason Zerhusen, who has led the fund(CHTTX) for 14 years, has racked up 12.1% annualized returns over 10 years, compared with 7.8% for the category. Her latest contrarian choice is agricultural equipment maker Agco. The stock sank 9% in October after quarterly earnings fell a penny short of analysts' expectations. Never mind that per-share profits were up 32% (which is typical for Agco). With shares trading at just 10 times estimated 2014 earnings, Zerhusen sees much more upside than risk. "Between population growth and expanding farm income, there's more incentive to be efficient in agricultural production," she says. Management has been boosting profit margins (up two percentage points in the third quarter) through cost cutting, and Zerhusen expects the margins eventually to rise from 9% today to 15%. --J.B.

Agco
 
赛拉•泽豪森
Aston/Fairpointe中盘股基金
交易代码：AGCO，《财富》500强
行业：农业

赛拉•泽豪森喜欢淘便宜货。1年前，她持仓量最多的两只股票——医疗器械制造商Boston Scientific（交易代码：BSX，《财富》500强）和纽约时报公司（ New York Times Co. ，交易代码：NYT）——都不受青睐。今年初以来，这两只股票的回报率分别为108%和57%。14年来，泽豪森管理的Aston/Fairpointe中盘股基金（Aston/Fairpointe Mid Cap，交易代码：CHTTX）在超过10年的时间里都实现了12.1%的年化回报率，远高于同类基金7.8%的平均水平，这就是原因之一。她的最新逆向操作选择了农业设备制造商Agco。10月份这只股票下跌了9%，原因是季度每股收益比分析师的预期低了1美分。32%的每股收益增速（这对Agco来说是家常便饭）却无人理会。目前这只股票的2014年预期市盈率只有10倍，泽豪森认为它的上升空间要超过风险。她说：“在人口增长和提高农民收入这两项因素的作用下，人们会有更大的动力来提高农业生产效率。”管理层一直在通过削减成本来提升利润率（第三季度利润率上升了2个百分点）。泽豪森预计，这家公司的利润率最终将从目前的9%提高到15%。--J.B.

Ultimate Software
 
Sudhir Nanda
T. Rowe Price Diversified Small Cap Growth
Ticker: (ULTI)
Category: Software

Ultimate Software Group isn't a stock for bargain hunters. A developer of payroll and other human resources software for small and midsize businesses, it has seen its shares soar 1,100% over the past five years; they trade at a lofty 85 times projected 2014 earnings. Of course, as a growth investor, Sudhir Nanda isn't looking for cheap stocks. He believes Ultimate's potential is enormous, which is why it's a top-five holding in his T. Rowe Price Diversified Small Cap Growth Fund (PRDSX). Nanda has shown a knack for picking winners before: His $709 million fund has generated 29.8% annual returns over the past five years, vs. 26.6% for the average small-cap fund. Ultimate boasts gaudy 45% annual earnings improvement over the past five years, and Nanda loves the stickiness of its cloud-based services, which he considers better than those of rivals. Penetration for such HR offerings is only 30%, which means plenty of potential new customers. "The company can grow revenue greater than 20% for the foreseeable future," Nanda says. "Earnings will grow even faster as you scale up and get margin improvement." --J.B.

人力资源软件公司Ultimate Software
 
苏迪尔•南达
T. Rowe价格多元化小盘成长型基金
交易代码：ULTI
行业：软件

Ultimate Software Group不适合低价股搜索者。这家公司为中小企业开发工资等人力资源软件，5年来股价上涨了1100%，2014年市盈率高达85倍。当然，作为成长型股票投资者，苏迪尔•南达也没有以低价股为目标。他认为Ultimate Software蕴含着巨大潜力，这家公司因此成为他的T. Rowe价格多元化小盘成长型基金（T. Rowe Price Diversified Small Cap Growth Fund，交易代码：PRDSX）的五大重仓股之一。此前，南达已经展示出了他在挑选优质股方面的水准：他的基金规模为7.09亿美元，5年来的年回报率为29.8%，高于小盘股基金26.6%的平均水平。这家软件公司过去5年的利润年增幅高达45%，南达看好它云服务的客户粘度，他认为Ultimate Software在这方面的表现好于竞争对手。此类人力资源软件的普及率只有30%，也就是说新用户的潜力足够大。南达说：“在可预见的时间内，这家公司的收入增速有望超过20%。随着规模的扩大和利润率的上升，盈利增速甚至会进一步提速。” --J.B.

Kirby

David Daglio
Dreyfus Opportunistic Mid Cap Value
Ticker: (KEX)
Category: Energy services

David Daglio has run the Dreyfus Opportunistic Mid Cap Value Fund (DMCVX) for a decade, during which it has churned out 9.7% annualized returns, vs. 8.8% for its Morningstar category. He believes the U.S. is entering a manufacturing boom -- one fueled by cheap and plentiful natural gas and other chemical feedstocks. Daglio's current favorite holding, Kirby, fits squarely in that thesis. It has already been a big winner in 2013, but Daglio thinks its ascent is far from complete. Kirby is the largest tank barge operator in the U.S., using the Mississippi River and connecting waterways to transport chemicals, crude oil, gasoline, and more to refineries and chemical plants. Kirby has benefited from the North Dakota oil and gas boom, and its barges also move Canadian crude to Gulf Coast refineries. Last quarter Kirby's earnings rose 27% -- very good for a stock trading at 19 times estimated 2014 earnings. Analysts expect 12% a year earnings growth over the next five years. "As we look at the landscape, it's clear that we're going to have more oil, natural gas, and natural-gas liquids, and that the people who reduce bottlenecks are going to make a king's ransom," says Daglio. "So for us Kirby is a pretty simple supply-and-demand story."--J.B.

油罐驳船运营商Kirby
 
大卫•达里奥
Dreyfus机会型中盘价值基金
交易代码：KEX
行业：能源服务

10年来大卫•达里奥一直管理着Dreyfus机会型中盘价值基金（Dreyfus Opportunistic Mid Cap Value Fund，交易代码：DMCVX），年化回报率为9.7%，高于晨星公司公布的同类基金8.8%的平均水平。他认为美国制造业正进入繁荣期，增长动力来自价格便宜而且供应充足的天然气燃料以及其他化工原料。达里奥目前看好Kirby，后者完全符合这样的主题。2013年Kirby公司股价已经大幅上涨，但达里奥认为它的上涨过程远未结束。Kirby是美国最大的油罐驳船运营商，利用密西西比河及周边水道运输化工产品、石油、汽油，其中大部分都运往炼油厂和化工厂。北达科他州的油气行业繁荣发展给Kirby带来了好处，它的驳船还将加拿大生产的石油运送到墨西哥湾地区的炼油厂。上个季度Kirby的利润增长了27%，对一只2014年预期市盈率为19倍的股票来说是个非常好的业绩。分析师预计，今后5年该公司利润每年将增长12%。达里奥说：“展望未来，石油、天然气和液化天然气的数量显然会增多，能消除瓶颈的公司将获得巨额收益。因此，对我们来说，Kirby是个相当简单的供需概念股。” --J.B.

Jones Lang LaSalle

John Rogers
Ariel Investor
Ticker: (JLL)
Category: Real estate

There's a certain symmetry between John Rogers's $2.3 billion Ariel Investor Fund(ARGFX) and his pick, Jones Lang LaSalle, a global real estate giant that runs commercial properties, brokers financing, and manages property portfolios for investors. A longtime holding for Rogers, the stock soared from $13 a share in 2000 to $117 in 2007, then cratered to $20 before roaring back to $95. After some bumpy years of his own, Rogers has been on a roll, with a five-year average return of 31.2%, vs. 21.5% for the S&P. Rogers thinks we're in "the fourth or fifth inning" of a global commercial real estate recovery. He's especially optimistic about JLL's asset-management arm, which, he says, is benefiting as institutional investors diversify from equities and bonds and into real estate. The stock is trading at 14 times expected 2014 profits, but Rogers thinks the company's accelerating profit growth merits a P/E closer to 20, which could lift the stock to $140. "People perceive this business as riskier and more volatile than it really is in 2013," Rogers says. "They've diversified geographically -- they've got huge businesses in Asia -- and they've expanded their product offerings. We think there's enormous upside." --J.B.

仲量联行
 
约翰•罗杰斯
Ariel投资者基金
交易代码：JLL
行业：房地产

约翰•罗杰斯的Ariel投资者基金（Ariel Investor Fund）有着230亿美元的规模，仲量联行则是一家大型全球性房地产公司，从事商业房地产经营，券商融资，同时还为投资者管理房地产投资。二者有一定的相似性。罗杰斯长期持有仲量联行，后者的股价从2000年的13美元增至2007年的117美元，随后跌至20美元，最终回升到95美元。罗杰斯的投资生涯最初也经历过一些起伏，随后则捷报频传，5年来的平均回报率为31.2%，而标普指数的回报水平为21.5%。罗杰斯认为，全球商业房地产复苏已进入“第四或第五个回合”。他对仲量联行的资产管理业务特别乐观。他说，随着机构投资者从股票向债券和其他资产扩展，这项业务正在受益。目前仲量联行的2014年预期市盈率为14倍，但罗杰斯认为，它的利润加速增长可将市盈率提高到近20倍，也就是说这家公司的股价有望达到140美元。他说：“人们对这项业务的风险和波动性的认识超过了它在2013年的实际表现。他们在地域方面已经实现了多元化，已经在亚洲有了大量业务，同时还增加了产品种类。我们认为这只股票有巨大的上升空间。” --J.B.

U.S. Bancorp

Mark Henneman
Mairs & Power Growth
Ticker: (USB, Fortune 500)
Category: Retail banking

It's not just shared heartland values that draw Mark Henneman to companies based in the Midwest, near his firm's St. Paul headquarters. Henneman, who has co-managed Mairs & Power Growth (MPGFX) with William Frels since 2006 and took the helm this year, likes easy access to his portfolio companies. That approach earned an average of 9.5% for 10 years, vs. 7.7% for the S&P 500. In the case of Minneapolis-based U.S. Bancorp, he got an intimate look at how its refusal to chase hot ideas -- think mortgage-backed securities -- made it "the best-performing large bank in America" through the crisis. These days, he argues, size gives U.S. Bank a leg up: With $350 billion in assets, it's big enough to benefit from efficiencies of scale, yet small enough to elude capital requirements imposed on the biggest institutions. Henneman admits a P/E of 12 doesn't look cheap for a financial stock, but he argues that U.S. Bank's conservative approach to reserving for underperforming loans means its earnings are effectively understated. Even before figuring in projected earnings growth of 8%, he thinks U.S. Bank's current performance justifies an 18% stock bump. --S.M.

美国合众银行
 
马克•亨尼曼
Mairs & Power成长型基金
交易代码：USB，《财富》500强
行业：零售银行

马克•亨尼曼青睐本公司圣保罗总部附近的中西部企业并不仅仅是因为它们都具有核心地带价值。亨尼曼和威廉•弗莱尔斯从2006年起共同管理Mairs & Power成长型基金（Mairs & Power Growth，交易代码：MPGFX），今年亨尼曼开始独掌大权。他喜欢自己所投资公司的平易近人。采用这样的方法，这只基金10年来的平均回报率为9.5%，而标普500指数的回报水平为7.7%。美国和众银行总部设在明尼阿波利斯，亨尼曼很欣赏这家银行拒绝追捧热门话题——比如抵押贷款支持证券——的做法，这让它成为金融危机期间“美国表现最好的大型银行”。他指出，最近规模成了和众银行的优势：它拥有3500亿美元资产，足以从规模经济中受益，同时也可以避开针对那些最大金融机构的资本金要求。亨尼曼承认，12倍的市盈率对金融股来说并不低，但他指出，和众银行为不良贷款计提准备金的保守策略意味着人们实际上低估了它的盈利。即使不考虑8%的盈利增长预期，亨尼曼还是认为这家银行目前的业绩配得上18%的股价涨幅。--S.M.

Bank of New York Mellon
 
Chris Davis
Davis New York Venture
Ticker: (BK, Fortune 500)
Category: Custody banking

Chris Davis is thoughtful and risk-averse -- his $21 billion Davis New York Venture Fund(NYVTX) has averaged 6% annual returns over the past 15 years, vs. 4.8% for the S&P 500 -- and he'll always favor the reliable over the audacious. Davis's choice: Bank of New York Mellon. A "custody" bank, it holds assets for institutional investors, such as mutual funds, and collects and distributes dividends and coupon payments for issuers of stocks and bonds. The economies of scale are so vast -- with $26 trillion in custody -- that it would be nearly impossible for a newcomer to make inroads into its market. BNY Mellon trades at 13 times projected 2014 earnings, pays a 1.8% dividend yield, and is projected to have 12% earnings growth in 2013. He also sees a scenario in which earnings could accelerate. "We expect interest rates to be significantly higher in the future," says Davis, who asserts that a two-percentage-point increase in interest rates could increase BNY Mellon's earnings per share by nearly 50%, given its massive assets in custody. "It's a boring, boring business ... but I don't really see the scenarios where the earnings power is diminished," Davis says. "That's the sort of risk/reward that I like." --J.B.

纽约银行梅隆公司
 
克里斯•戴维斯
戴维斯纽约风险投资基金
交易代码：BK，《财富》500强
行业：托管银行

克里斯•戴维斯思虑周密而且倾向于规避风险。他管理着规模为210亿美元的戴维斯纽约风险投资基金（Davis New York Venture Fund，交易代码：NYVTX），15年来的年均回报率为6%，而标普500指数的回报率为4.8%。在稳妥和大胆之间，他总是更倾向于前者。戴维斯选择的是纽约银行梅隆公司（Bank of New York Mellon）。这是一家托管银行，为共同基金等机构投资者保管资产，同时为股票和债券发行人收取或支付股息或债券利息。它的规模经济优势非常明显——托管资产达26万亿美元——其他银行几乎不可能进入这个市场。纽约银行梅隆公司的2014年预期市盈率为13倍，股息收益率为1.8%，2013年盈利预计将增长12%。戴维斯认为，在某种情况下这家银行的利润增速还有希望加快。他说：“我们预计今后的利率将大幅度上升。”据戴维斯估算，由于托管资产数额巨大，利率每上升2个百分点，纽约银行梅隆公司的每股收益就会提高近50%。他指出：“这家银行的业务非常、非常乏味……但我确实认为它的盈利增长动力不会减弱。我就喜欢这样的风险/回报情况。” --J.B.

Morgan Stanley

Patrick Kelly
Alger Spectra
Ticker: (MS, Fortune 500)
Category: Investment banking

For the past decade, Alger Spectra (SPECX) has racked up returns of 12.3% a year, better than 99% of large-cap growth funds. Patrick Kelly, who has led the fund for nine years, says he looks for companies undergoing "positive dynamic change" that can propel earnings and stock prices. In the case of Morgan Stanley, Kelly says, the change has two components. First, through revenue growth and cost cutting, the company is boosting the margins of its wealth management division -- from 9% in 2009 to a projected 20% in 2015. Second, it's shrinking its less profitable fixed-income business, reducing the assets associated with it from $390 billion in 2011 to a projected $180 billion in 2016, freeing capital that can be returned to shareholders. As a result, he expects that wealth management will account for 50% of Morgan Stanley's pretax income by 2015, up from 18% in 2010. When the market takes note, Kelly says, shareholders will benefit because wealth management trades at a higher multiple than does Morgan Stanley's traditional institutional business. The stock has already surged from $19 at the start of 2013 to around $30 now, but earnings have advanced even faster, preserving the forward P/E at 12. --S.M.

摩根士丹利
 
帕特里克•凯利
Alger Spectra基金
交易代码：MS，《财富》500强
行业：投资银行

10年来，Alger Spectra基金的年回报率为12.3%，好于99%的大盘成长型基金。9年来一直担任基金经理的帕特里克•凯利说，他要找的是正在发生“有利而有活力的变化”进而能够提高利润和股价的公司。就摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）而言，凯利指出，这样的变化来自两方面。首先是收入增长和削减成本，该公司正在提升理财业务的利润率——预计将从2009年的9%提高到2015年的20%。其次，摩根士丹利正在压缩盈利能力较弱的固定收益业务，预计相关资产的规模将从2011年的3900亿美元降至2016年的1800亿美元，由此释放的资金可以返还给股东。因此，凯利预计，到2015年理财业务将占该公司税前利润的50%，远高于2010年的18%。他指出，当市场注意到这一点，摩根士丹利的股东就会受益，原因是该公司理财业务的估值倍数高于它传统的机构业务。摩根士丹利的股价已从2013年初的19美元上涨到目前的30美元左右，但盈利增长得更快，从而保持着12倍的动态市盈率。--S.M.

Western Union

James Kieffer
Artisan Mid Cap Value
Ticker: (WU, Fortune 500)
Category: Money transfer

Underdogs abound at Artisan Mid Cap Value (ARTQX), which has averaged 12.7% returns for a decade, vs. 10.5% for the S&P Midcap 400 Index. Sure enough, co-manager James Kieffer (at the fund since 2001) endorses a straggler: Western Union, whose shares have slid 8.5% over the past three months even as midcaps jumped 8.8%. The company warned of flat 2014 earnings, prompting some investors to bail out. Kieffer thinks that's shortsighted. Globalization has led to greater labor migration, which has increased demand for wire transfers, since workers often support families back home. But the rise in transfers has also brought increased scrutiny by regulators looking for money laundering or other illegal activity. That means higher short-term compliance costs. Kieffer sees a silver lining. As the industry leader, Western Union is positioned to absorb those costs better than smaller rivals. In addition, he views Western Union's decision to cut fees, which alienated investors, as the first volley in a price war to tighten the screws on competitors. "It's a stock trading at 12 times earnings that historically had traded in the high teens," he says. "They're also paying you a 2.9% dividend yield. To me, that's a lot of bang for your buck." --J.B.

西联
 
詹姆斯•基弗尔
Artisan中型价值股基金
交易代码：(WU，《财富》500强)
行业：资金转账

Artisan中型价值股基金（Artisan Mid Cap Value，交易代码：ARTQX）10年来的平均回报率为12.7%，高于标普中盘股400指数的10.5%，其中尽是表现欠佳的个股。果然，联席经理詹姆斯•基弗（2001年加入）就看好一只走势不好的股票：西联（Western Union）。3个月来该公司股价下跌了8.5%，中盘股却出现了8.8%的涨幅。西联警告称，2014年利润水平可能和今年持平，导致一些投资者抛售它的股票套现。基弗认为这是一种目光短浅的行为。全球化带来了更多的移民劳动力，他们经常要供养还没有移民的家人，从而提升了电汇需求。不过，电汇增多也让防范洗钱等非法活动的监管部门加强了审查。这就意味着短期内合规成本将上升。基弗看到了好的一面。西联是行业领军者，和规模较小的竞争对手相比能更好地消化这些成本。此外，西联已决定下调费率，这让投资者望而却步，但基弗认为这是该公司发动价格战的第一枪，目的是给竞争对手施加更大的压力。他说：“西联以往的市盈率都在15倍以上，目前市盈率则为12倍。这家公司的股息收益率为2.9%。对我来说，这能带来极大价值。”

MarketAxess
 
Thomas Ognar
Wells Fargo Advantage Growth
Ticker: (MKTX)
Category: Trading

It happened years ago for stocks, and Thomas Ognar believes it's going to happen for bonds: a shift from dominance by a handful of Wall Street broker-dealers to electronic marketplaces. That means opportunity for MarketAxess Holdings, an electronic trading system for bonds. Despite lower costs, such platforms have made less headway with bonds than with stocks, in part because bonds are traded less frequently than stocks. But Ognar, whose $12.4 billion fund (SGROX) has a five-year average annual return of 29.2%, vs. 21.5% for the S&P, thinks that's changing. Faced with tougher capital requirements and tighter regulations on proprietary trading, big Wall Street firms can no longer afford to maintain large inventories in the bonds for which they serve as dealers. Meanwhile, Ognar notes, reduced interest rates have made clients more price-sensitive than in the past. Trading volumes for MarketAxess, the leader in its niche, have increased 50% since 2011. The stock isn't cheap, trading at 32 times estimated 2014 earnings, but Ognar thinks those projections are too conservative: "The trajectory of their ability to grow earnings is a lot higher than what analysts are looking for." --J.B.

MarketAxess
 
托马斯•奥格纳
富国银行优势成长基金
交易代码：(MKTX)
行业：证券交易

几年前，股市摆脱了一些华尔街券商的主导，进入了电子市场时代。托马斯•奥格纳认为债券市场也将出现同样的情况。这对MarketAxess Holdings来说意味着机遇，因为它是一个债券电子交易平台。虽然成本较低，但这样的平台在开拓债市方面取得的进展不如股市，部分原因是债券交易不像股票那么频繁。不过，奥格纳认为情况正在发生改变。他的富国银行优势成长基金（Wells Fargo Advantage Growth，交易代码：SGROX）的规模为124亿美元，5年来的年均回报率为29.2%，高于标普500指数的21.5%。面对更高的资本金要求和对自营交易更严格的监管，大型华尔街公司已经无法大量持有、交易债券。同时，奥格纳指出，利率下降也让客户对利率的敏感度高于以往。MarketAxess是这个领域的领跑者，成交量从2011年以来提高了50%。这公司的股价并不低，2014年预期市盈率为32倍，但奥格纳认为这样的预测过于保守，他说：“他们提高盈利的能力远远超过分析师目前所认定的水平。” --J.B.

译者：Charlie