基金经理的推荐:值得长线持有的五大美股
《财富》杂志 | 2013-06-18 10:04
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有一些投资在特定阶段合情合理。但与此同时,市场上不乏一些长期都比较可靠的大笨象型股票。我们从五位顶级基金经理那探听到了他们最为青睐的长线持仓股,在此向大家和盘托出。

1. 二十一世纪福克斯 我们首先来看唐•雅克特曼。他是典型的价值投资者,买入特定股票后长线持有,期间还不断择机买进相关股票。雅克特曼管理的亚茨曼基金(Yacktman Fund)在过去十年里的年均回报率为11.3%,跑赢标准普尔500指数3.5个百分点。新闻集团(News Corp.)是这家基金公司的重仓股,类似的还有百事可乐公司(PepsiCo)以及宝洁公司(Procter & Gamble)这两家财富美国500强企业。不过,他目前钟情的是一家将称之为二十一世纪福克斯(21st Century Fox)的公司,公司资产由新闻集团旗下的电视业务【如福克斯体育频道(Fox Sports)和福克斯新闻频道(Fox News)】以及电影制片厂组成。二十一世纪福克斯将于今年六月底与新闻集团旗下报刊部门分拆,不过后者仍然冠以新闻之名。雅克特曼认为,由于公司提高了有线服务供应商的频道使用费,二十一世纪福克斯公司的收入有望增加:“它的收入模式将更加依赖频道收费,而不像过去那样高度依赖广告。” ——斯科特•森德罗斯基 | 1. 21st Century Fox We start with Don Yacktman, who buys and holds ... and holds. His Yacktman Fund (YACKX) has averaged 11.3% annual returns over the past decade, beating the S&P 500 by 3.5 percentage points a year. News Corp. (NWS) is a top holding (along with PepsiCo (PEP,Fortune 500) and Procter & Gamble(PG, Fortune 500)). But what he really likes today is the company that will be called 21st Century Fox -- comprising News Corp.'s TV businesses, such as Fox Sports and Fox News, and its movie studio -- after it is split from the company's newspapers (which will retain the News name) in late June. Yacktman expects 21st Century Fox's revenue to rise as it charges cable providers more for its channels: "The model is moving toward more fee-driven, as opposed to advertising-driven, revenues." --Scott Cendrowski |

2. 欧莱利汽车 美国人驾车的时间越来越长。它意味着美国人对汽车零部件的需求有增无减。对轩尼诗焦点基金(Hennessy Focus Fund)的经理布莱恩•麦考利来说,这正是他的重仓股欧莱利汽车(O'Reilly Automotive,财富500强企业)魅力四射的关键所在。这支基金由于在过去十年里重仓持有少数股票而实现12.9%的平均回报率。欧莱利汽车销售一系列汽车用品及配件。与竞争对手纳帕汽车零件公司(Napa Auto Parts)及AutoZone公司(财富美国500强企业)不同的是,欧莱利汽车在全美拥有4,000家门店,在直接消费者和汽车修理店两个细分市场的表现同样出色。欧莱利的毛利率(目前超过50%)以及经营利润率已经连年攀升。麦考利称,考虑到欧莱利优越的增长性和管理层的执行力,它完全能够超越同行获得17倍的市盈率。他预计,未来5到8年内,欧莱利的门店的增长幅度将介于5%至6%之间,主要是内生增长。但是他补充说,公司高管们还有另外的高招:不多花一分钱就能达成明智的收购交易。 --凯蒂•贝纳 | 2. O'Reilly Automotive Americans are driving their cars for longer and longer. That means they have ever more need for auto parts. For Brian Macauley, manager of the Hennessy Focus Fund (HFCSX), which has averaged 12.9% returns for a decade by holding big positions in a small number of stocks, that's a key part of the appeal of O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY, Fortune 500), one of his top holdings. The company sells a wide array of auto supplies and accessories. Unlike rivals such as Napa Auto Parts and AutoZone (AZO, Fortune 500), O'Reilly, which has 4,000 stores nationwide, is equally adept at selling to both consumers and garages. O'Reilly's gross margins (now above 50%) and operating margins have been climbing for years, and Macauley says the company's superior growth and execution justify its above-category price/earnings ratio of 17. He anticipates 5% to 6% store growth over the next five to eight years. Much of this will be organic, but he says the company's executives have yet another skill: making smart acquisitions without overpaying. --Katie Benner |

3. Pool公司 Pool 公司(Pool)并不过度依赖经济增长。它75%的收入来自游泳池维护和维修。“泳池业主总需要利用化学品对池水进行处理,而且需要一些维修,”维勒尔均衡基金(Villere Balanced Fund)的经理桑迪•维勒尔称。“大家都得花这笔钱,跟有线电视费和电费差不多。”(维勒尔均衡基金过去十年的年均回报率为10.5%。)这使得这家以泳池直接命名的公司在前几年美国住房市场低迷之际成功避开了风险。Pool公司行业中占据着霸主地位:2010年的年收入约为20亿美元,是53家领先竞争对手的收入总和。Pool公司也因此具备议价能力。随着住房市场初步复苏,更多游泳池将会建成,将会继续提振Pool公司的收入。它的动态市盈率为21倍,高出标准普尔500指数的估值倍数。不过维勒尔称,考虑到这家公司的前景,有这样的定价也无可厚非。Pool公司管理层预计,未来五年的利润增速为20%,且计划增派股息(目前股息率为1.4%)。 ——凯蒂•贝纳 | 3. Pool Corp. Pool (POOL) isn't overly dependent on an expanding economy. The company makes 75% of its revenues on swimming-pool maintenance and repair. "Pool owners will always treat their water with chemicals and need repairs," says Sandy Villere of the Villere Balanced Fund(VILLX), which has delivered 10.5% average yearly returns over the past 10 years. "It's an expense that people pay, much like the cable or electric bill." That helped the forthrightly named company avoid devastation in the housing meltdown. Pool dominates its industry: With nearly $2 billion in revenues in 2012, it is as large as its top 53 competitors combined. That gives it pricing power. A nascent housing-market recovery will give the company an extra boost as more pools are built. The stock trades at a premium to the S&P -- a forward P/E of 21 -- but Villere thinks the company's prospects justify the price. Management projects 20% earnings growth over the next five years and is raising the dividend, which currently yields 1.4%. --K.B. |

4. 3M公司 如果要说罗伯•麦凯佛挑剔,这个词都有点显得轻描淡写。他只投资过去至少10年中年均净资产收益率至少为15%的公司。他正是使用这样的选股方法为简森优质成长型基金(Jensen Quality Growth Fund)在过去十年内实现了6.9%的年均回报率。3M公司(3M,财富500强企业)正是符合他选股标准的公司之一。3M公司生产约5.5万种产品,销往全球200个国家,产品从面向消费者需求的百事贴和思高透明胶纸到航天工业用的特种薄膜和涂层材料,不一而足。麦凯佛说,丰富的产品线再加上一贯的企业创新文化赋予了3M公司强大的定价能力。公司约有6%的收入用在研发上。麦凯佛指出,新兴市场正在带动3M公司的收益增长,它销售额的65%来自美国境外。3M公司96年里做到年年派息,且在过去55年逐年提高了股息率,经济危机、衰退乃至萧条时期也不例外。目前股息率为2.3%。 ——凯蒂•贝纳 | 4. 3M To say Rob McIver is choosy would be an understatement. He invests only in companies that have had a minimum 15% return on equity every year for at least 10 years, an approach that has helped his Jensen Quality Growth Fund (JENSX)average 6.9% returns over the past decade. One model of consistency: 3M (MMM, Fortune 500). The company makes some 55,000 products, sold in 200 countries, everything from Post-it notes and Scotch tape for consumers to specialty films and coatings for the aerospace industry. Such products and 3M's culture of constant innovation have given it major pricing power, says McIver. About 6% of the company's revenue is spent on R&D. McIver notes that emerging markets are helping drive earnings growth, with 65% of sales coming from outside the U.S. How's this for constancy: 3M has paid an annual dividend for 96 straight years and has raised it every year for the past 55, through crises, recessions, and depressions. The current yield: 2.3%. --K.B. |

5.好时公司 巧克力巨头好时公司(Hershey,财富500强企业)拥有苏姗•肯普勒所追求的领先市场地位、充裕现金流和可靠的管理层。她管理的TIAA-CREF增长和收益基金(TIAA-CREF Growth and Income Fund)在过去十年内的年化回报率为9.9%,而好时公司则是这支基金的一支重仓股。由于好时在整个糖果业务方面几乎没有任何一般意义上的竞争对手,因此,它有能力维持很高的利润率和定价能力。毋庸置疑,由此一来,好时公司每年产生约10亿美元的净现金流,用以增加派息、回购股权及业务扩张。肯普勒说,对于好时公司而言,在全球1,900亿美元的糖果市场获取成长的空间还很大,尤其是在中国及墨西哥地区。好时公司目前的年销售额为70亿美元。肯普勒又称,好时公司在打入新市场方面很讲究策略,在致力于将糖果打造成日常小点心的同时,最初只推出少量的产品,跟它在美国国内的做法如出一辙。肯普勒预计,好时公司未来三至五年的收益增速将保持在11%-16%这个大致范围内。(财富中文网) --凯蒂•贝纳 译者:默默 | 5. Hershey Chocolate powerhouse Hershey (HSY,Fortune 500) has the sort of leading position, strong cash flow, and dependable management that Susan Kempler seeks. Her TIAA-CREF Growth and Income Fund(TIIRX) has returned an annualized 9.9% over the past 10 years, and Hershey is a big holding. With virtually no generic competition in the candy business, Hershey is able to maintain high margins and pricing power. Little surprise, then, that Hershey generates about $1 billion in free cash flow a year, which it uses to increase its dividend, buy back stock, and fund expansion. There's plenty of room -- particularly in China and Mexico -- for the company, with $7 billion in sales, to grow within the $190 billion global confectionary market, says Kempler. She adds that Hershey has been smart about entering new markets, introducing only a few products while working to make candy an everyday snack, just as it is in the U.S. Kempler expects Hershey to maintain low- to mid-teen earnings growth for the next three to five years. --K.B. |
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