Except for a few snarky comments Henry Blodget made in his opening presentation Tuesday about what Tim Cook needs to do to stay competitive in China, the only session devoted to Apple (AAPL) at Business Insider's three-day Ignition: Future of Digital conference was Gene Munster's 15-minute after-lunch talk titled "The State of Apple."

    Among the points he made:

    • iPhone unit sales grew 23% over the past two quarters compared with 47% for the overall market. "The reality is," Munster told Ignition attendees, "the iPhone is growing slower than market rates because it's priced too high for emerging markets."

    • Munster expects Apple to introduce a larger iPhone (5-inch) in the middle of next year, and although iPhone pricing hasn't changed over the past year (except for the iPhone 4) he expects Apple will soon start lowering prices for older phones in emerging markets.

    • The iPad represents 25% of Apple's revenue, but it's been struggling lately because innovation is more difficult on tablets and because prices in this market are particularly sensitive. (Unlike iPhones, iPads are not subsidized by carriers.)

    • Munster believes Apple is working on a larger-screen iPad for 2015. The market is too big (320 million units next year, by one estimate), he says, for Apple not to expand its offerings. "We believe that two sizes don't fit all." Also, for branding purposes, an iPad Pro would line up with the MacBook Pro.

    • Munster described Apple television as one of his favorite topics. "It's an understatement that I've been wrong about the timing of the TV," he deadpanned, noting that he first predicted that it would arrive in 2012 (or was it 2011?). But he's not standing down. He believes an Apple television set is going to happen, and that it will arrive in 2014.

    • In what was almost a parody of a tiny-sample Piper Jaffray survey, Munster showed a video of man-on-the-street interviews with 14 consumers, in which seven said they would buy an Apple television, five said no and two said maybe. In a larger survey this summer, the 50% who said they would be interested in buying an iTV fell to 15% when they were told that the set might cost $1,700.

    • By Munster's calculation, a 15% share of the connected TV market would add 18% to Apple's overall revenues. "That's why we think Apple will do it."     

    在由Business Insider主办、为期三天、主题为“数字的未来”的Ignition大会上，除去亨利•布拉吉在周二的公开演示中就蒂姆•库克在中国保持竞争力所需做的事情上提出了几句尖锐评论外，唯一专门讨论苹果（Apple）的会议就是吉恩•蒙斯特15分钟的午餐后演示，题为“苹果的现状”。

    下面是他在会中提到的观点：

    • iPhone的销量在过去两个季度中增长了23%，而市场的总体销量增长了47%。蒙斯特对与会者说：“实际上，iPhone增长速度之所以低于整体市场是由于在新兴市场定价过高。”

    • 蒙斯特预计苹果将在明年年中推出更大尺寸的iPhone（5英寸）。尽管去年iPhone的价格并未变动（iPhone 4除外），但他认为苹果很快就会在新兴市场降低老款手机的价格。

    • iPad给苹果贡献了25%的收入，不过近来它也开始遭遇困境。究其缘由，是因为平板电脑的创新更加艰难，而市场对价格也更加敏感。（与iPhone不同，iPad无法得到运营商的补贴。）

    • 蒙斯特相信，苹果正在开发更大屏幕的iPad，并将于2015年发售。他表示，平板电脑市场太大了（有人估计，明年将会有3.2亿台的销量），苹果不可能不扩大产品种类。“我们相信，仅仅两种尺寸不可能满足所有人的需求。”同样，为了品牌化的打算，和MacBook Pro一样，苹果也会推出iPad Pro。

    • 苹果电视是蒙斯特最喜欢讨论的话题之一。他不动声色地说：“我总是低估苹果电视面世所需的时间。”他最初预计苹果电视将于2012年（也许是2011年？）面世。不过他依然坚持自己的观点。他相信苹果电视很快就会面世，时间就在2014年。

    • 蒙斯特诙谐地模仿了投资公司Piper Jaffray的一个小调查，给大家播放了街边采访的视频。14位消费者中，有7位表示愿意购买苹果电视，5位表示不愿意，还有2位不确定。今年夏天更大范围的一次调查中，50%的受访者表示有兴趣购买iTV。不过当得知电视售价也许高达1,700美元时，这个比例下降到了15%。

    • 根据蒙斯特的计算，如果在有线电视市场占据15%的份额，苹果的总收入就能增加18%。“这就是为什么我们认定苹果会进入这个市场。”

    • 蒙斯特还认为，iWatch将于2014年面世。这并不因为他从亚洲的供应商那里得到了信号，而是因为这符合蒂姆•库克对新产品的阐述和他对手表的“强烈兴趣”。蒙斯特说，在像FuelBand这种地方的员工“不会无缘无故跳槽到苹果，除非是苹果在打手表的主意。”。

    • 引人注目的是，在第二个演示视频中，13位受访者里只有1位表示有兴趣购买苹果手表。在另外一个范围更广泛的调查中，12%的iPhone用户表示他们或许会购买iWatch；而在安卓用户中，这个比例降到了6%。蒙斯特预计，如果苹果能卖出500万到1000万块手表，它的年收入则可以增加1%到2%。

    • He also believes an iWatch is coming in 2014, not because he's picking up signals from Asian supplier, but because it fits with what Tim Cook has said about new product categories and his "intense interest" in the watch. Recent hires from places like FuelBand "wouldn't be coming to Apple if there weren't something going on with a watch," Munster says.

    • Tellingly, of 13 consumers interviewed in a second video, only one said he'd be interested in buying a watch from Apple. In a broader survey, 12% of iPhone owners said they might buy an iWatch, a number that fell to 6% when Android users were included. Munster estimates that if Apple were to sell 5 to 10 million units, that would add 1% to 2% to Apple's annual revenues.

    • Munster also believes TouchID will eventually be exported to Passbook, Apple's fumbling attempt to create a digital wallet. "The wallet is going to change," he said. "It's not about getting your credit card out faster than your phone. It's about not waiting in line. It's about loyalty programs. It's about receipt management. Apple needs to be there."

    • But Passbook -- which launched in 2012 -- has not taken off. It only has 37 applications in it, "Which is pathetic," says Munster. "If anyone can grab me afterward and explain what they love about their Passbook app, I would love to hear it because I'm struggling to find out what that is."

    • Assuming Apple can grow a digital wallet business as big as PayPal's, about $9 billion a year, that would add about 4.5% to Apple's revenues.

    • When Munster asked his people on the street what they'd like Apple to do next, one of the themes that came up was home automation. Possible applications include smart TVs, smart appliances and smart thermostats -- like ex-Apple SVP Tony Fadell's Nest product. It's a big market. There are 132 million homes in the U.S. If Apple could get 20% of homeowners to spend $500 a year, that would add $13 billion to Apple's top line. "That's a decent size market," says Munster, who, not surprisingly, sees iTV as the center of the Apple smart home.

    • 蒙斯特还认为，iWatch将于2014年面世。这并不因为他从亚洲的供应商那里得到了信号，而是因为这符合蒂姆•库克对新产品的阐述和他对手表的“强烈兴趣”。蒙斯特说，在像FuelBand这种地方的员工“不会无缘无故跳槽到苹果，除非是苹果在打手表的主意。”。

    • 引人注目的是，在第二个演示视频中，13位受访者里只有1位表示有兴趣购买苹果手表。在另外一个范围更广泛的调查中，12%的iPhone用户表示他们或许会购买iWatch；而在安卓用户中，这个比例降到了6%。蒙斯特预计，如果苹果能卖出500万到1000万块手表，它的年收入则可以增加1%到2%。

    • 蒙斯特还认为，TouchID最后会应用到Passbook上。后者是苹果创造数字钱包的一次摸索。他说：“钱包会变的。不是说你可以比掏出手机更快地掏出信用卡。而是关系到用户可以免于排队，关系到忠诚度计划，关系到收据管理。苹果需要实现这一点。”

    • 不过2012年发布的Passbook离这个目标还差得很远。它里面只包含37个应用。蒙斯特说：“太寒碜了。如果有人能在会后拉住我，给我讲讲他究竟喜欢Passbook的什么地方，我一定会洗耳恭听。因为我一直在努力搞明白这是个什么应用。”

    • 假如苹果可以把数字钱包业务的规模做到贝宝（Paypal）那样，每年获得90亿美元的收入，公司的营收就会提升4.5%。

    • 视频中，蒙斯特在路上问人们，希望苹果接下来推出什么产品时，其中的一个回答是家庭自动化。可能的组件包括智能电视、智能家电和智能温控装置——比如前苹果高级副总裁托尼•法德尔发明的Nest恒温器。这是一个很大的市场。美国有1.32亿家庭，如果苹果能让其中的20%每年花上500美元，苹果的账目上就能增加130亿美元收入。蒙斯特说：“这是一个规模可观的市场。”不出意外，他认为iTV将是苹果智能家居的核心部件。（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正