The tech world's attention will turn to Apple headquarters in Cupertino, Calif. Tuesday, where the company is rumored to debut the enhanced high-end iPhone 5S and the lower-cost iPhone 5C. Other devices, potentially the long-rumored iWatch, could also be showcased. While new Apple products at press events multiple times a year are now common in the cutthroat mobile industry, this week's event is especially important for Apple (AAPL) and its investors, as well as for the company's rivals like Samsung, Microsoft (MSFT), Nokia (NOK), Google (GOOG), and Motorola.

    "The loyalty of Apple users is at stake, both the geeks as well as regular consumers," said Peter Warman, founder of research firm Newzoo.

    That's because the impending launch of iOS 7 will impact users of older iPad, iPhone, and iPod Touch devices. These consumers will be forced to upgrade to a new device because an increasing number of apps or updates no longer will work on the older operating systems.

    "This situation is new and forcing consumers to think about buying a new device, whether it's a new Apple device or an alternative from Samsung, Microsoft, Android, or others," said Warman. "If consumers decide to stick with their old devices and use them for everything but apps, then a steady revenue stream towards Apple stops."

    Michael Pachter, video game analyst at Wedbush Securities, said that Apple needs this refresh to keep up with competition like Samsung, which just announced the Galaxy Note 3 and the accompanying Gear smartwatch. Apple is also now taking on Microsoft and its newly acquired Nokia.

    Warman noted that since Steve Jobs left, there has been no cheering at Apple press events, no tech geeks jumping up and down. "Will Apple's iWatch look a hundred times cooler than that of Samsung and others? Will it do something that only Apple could have dreamed up? Normally Apple launches products first, now they are coming in second or third," he added.

    With Samsung beating Apple to the punch with its smart watch, the rivalry between these two giants continues to grow. Samsung clearly leads the field in the hardware space, beating Apple in absolute numbers. Sales of Galaxy phones have helped Google's Android operating systems overtake iOS. But Warman said Apple is currently the only company in the mobile business with the "holy trinity of successful hardware, operating system, and content store."

    New research from Newzoo shows that despite higher growth rates, overall GooglePlay revenues still stand at only 47% of the total generated by Apple's iOS stores. One of the reasons Apple has partnered with Epic Games with its Infinity Blade franchise at past press events and featured mobile games in its commercials is because on a global scale, one in three downloads from any app store is a game. Two in three dollars spent on these apps is on games. Warman estimates that Apple will gross close to $2 billion this year solely from its 30% share on mobile games spending.

    Gaming is a key driver for mobile, as evidenced by Samsung highlighting the gaming capabilities of its bestselling Galaxy S4 phone. Newzoo forecasts that worldwide spending on mobile games will grow 34% this year, from $9.1 billion to $12.2 billion. By the end of this year, the number of tablet and smartphone gamers will surpass one billion.

    "By 2016, mobile games are expected to claim 28% of the global games market, generating almost $24 billion and representing a huge global growth opportunity," said Warman. "The U.S. represents less than 25% of the global mobile games market with Americans expected to generate around $2.8 billion in mobile game revenues this year. Less than 40% of Apple's iOS game revenues come from the U.S. For Google Play, this share is significantly lower at less than 30%." 

    科技界的目光很快将投向位于加州库比蒂诺的苹果公司（Apple）总部。有传闻称，苹果将于本周二发布增强版高端iPhone 5S和价格较低的iPhone 5C。而苹果公司同时还会发布其他设备，特别是坊间一直风传的iWatch智能手表。虽然在竞争激烈的手机行业，苹果一年召开多次新品发布会已是司空见惯，但是本周的新品发布对于苹果公司及其投资者、乃至三星（Samsung）、微软（Microsoft）、诺基亚（Nokia）、谷歌（Google）和摩托罗拉（Motorola）等竞争对手来说，都具有特别重要的意义。

    “苹果用户的忠诚度会受到影响，包括极客和普通消费者在内，”调查研究公司Newzoo创始人彼特•沃曼说。

    这是因为，即将发布的iOS7操作系统将给旧版iPad、iPhone和iPod Touch产品带来影响。今后，大量的应用软件或更新内容将无法在旧版操作系统上使用，大量用户将不得不更新操作系统。

    沃曼说：“这种新情况会迫使消费者考虑是购买苹果新产品，还是购买三星（Samsung）、微软（Microsoft）、安卓等替代产品。如果消费者选择继续使用原有产品，但是不再使用应用软件，那么苹果公司稳定的收入来源将终止。”

    韦德布什证券公司（Wedbush Securities）的视频游戏分析师迈克尔•帕切表示，由于三星刚刚发布了Galaxy Note 3手机和Gear smartwatch智能手表，苹果公司需要这种更新来对抗三星的竞争。此外，苹果还面临着来自微软及其新并购的诺基亚（Nokia）的竞争。

    沃曼指出，史蒂夫•乔布斯去世以后，苹果的新品发布会没有带来让人兴奋的产品，很久没有看到科技天才们的欢呼雀跃了。他补充说：“苹果的iWatch智能手表会比三星或其他品牌的产品酷上100倍吗？它是只有苹果才能做出来的独特产品吗？以往都是苹果率先发布一种新产品，而现在苹果成了第二或第三个发布者，。”

    相对于苹果，三星在智能手表方面抢占了先机，这将使两大科技巨头之间的竞争更趋白热化。显然，三星在硬件方面处于领先地位，在数量方面遥遥领先苹果。而Galaxy系列手机的热销让谷歌的安卓操作系统超越了iOS。但沃曼表示，苹果目前是手机业务中唯一一家实现“成功的硬件、操作系统和内容商店三位一体”的公司。

    Newzoo的最新研究表明，虽然GooglePlay商店的整体收入增速较快，但是它的收入只是苹果iOS商店总收入的47%。苹果在过去的新品发布会上与英佩游戏（Epic Games）就无尽之剑（ Infinity Blade ）经销权展开合作，并在商业广告中介绍移动游戏。其中的部分原因在于，从全球来看，任何应用商店三分之一的下载内容是游戏，三分之一的应用软件消费是游戏消费。沃曼估计，仅靠30%的移动游戏消费，苹果今年就能获得将近20亿美元的收入。

    游戏是手机的主要推动因素，而三星强调畅销手机Galaxy S4的游戏功能恰恰说明了这一点。Newzoo预计，今年世界移动游戏的消费将从去年的91亿美元增加至122亿美元，增幅达34%。到今年年底，平板电脑和智能手机的游戏玩家数量将超过十亿。

    “到2016年，移动游戏有望占领全球游戏市场28%的份额，收入约为240亿美元，这是巨大的全球增长机遇，”沃曼说。“美国占全球移动游戏市场的份额低于25%，今年美国人口将产生约28亿美元的移动游戏收入。苹果不超过40%的iOS游戏收入来源于美国。而Google Play的这一比例还不足30%。” 

    The key to success in the mobile game, which is extremely crowded and overrun with free-to-play games, is generating revenue. Apple has had more success than Samsung in this arena, despite the fact that a slightly higher share of Americans between ages 10 and 65 use a Samsung phone than an iPhone: 26% vs. 25%. Warman said those iPhone users grow to 35% when looking at the market share among 129 million mobile gamers and 45% if only focusing on the 58 million American paying mobile gamers. "Ultimately, Apple reaches twice the number of paying mobile gamers than Samsung, despite having a lower absolute number of device users," said Warman.

    When looking at Apple's power position in the games space, it's important to look iPhone, iPad, and iPod Touch. Apple has no competition with the iPod Touch, which many parents buy for their children specifically to play games and apps without dealing with the high costs of a smartphone. Apple's dominance in this arena stems from the fact that it maintains control of a successful App Store. Warman believes Samsung has refrained from launching a competitive product because without an established App Store equivalent, it only represents a low-margin piece of hardware to it.

    "Because of Apple's relatively closed nature and limited variety in screen dimensions, developers can publish one or two versions of their game on iOS and reach a large share of the market," said Warman. "To benefit from publishing on Google Play, developers must create many more versions of their games to cater for varying devices and screen sizes. This isn't ideal for developers who'd rather focus their effort on localizing their game into new territories and optimizing gameplay and business models."

    That's why a fast-growing mobile game company like Supercell has been in no rush to port its hit iOS games Clash of Clans and Hay Day to Android devices. Those two games are generating over $2.4 million in revenue a day from its 8.5 million iOS gamers. Even Rovio and its now-ubiquitous Angry Birds franchise launched on iOS and catapulted to the top of the games space with the help of the App Store.

    Warman said developers flock to, and stick with, Apple because of its superior reach of paying gamers. Apple devices tend to be owned by more affluent households, for example. Consumers stick with Apple because of the number of exclusive games available on iOS. This ecosystem creates a positive feedback loop for Apple.

    With Apple adding 700 million Chinese subscribers with a possible China Mobile deal, the company is also trying to keep up with Samsung in Asia. When looking at the mobile gaming market, Warman believes Amazon (AMZN) is the only competitor that can even come close to Apple because it can offer a seamless payment experience and the level of monetization that Apple has. But even if rumors of Amazon offering a free smartphone come true, Apple could still be in the winner's circle.

    "A free Amazon phone will hurt Samsung more because they rely on hardware margins for profit," said Warman. "If Apple devices are cooler than the free one at Amazon, people will buy an Apple." Warman noted that choosing a smartphone is too personal a decision for consumers to make strictly on price considerations. "Apple will benefit from the increased fragmentation in the marketplace, remaining the mobile platform of choice for content developers, while earning billions of dollars in App Store commission income each year."

    While a refresh will play an important role for Apple, the company is certainly in the driver's seat in the mobile game. And innovation in new hardware will only help the company that Steve Jobs built.

    对于充斥着海量免费游戏的移动游戏领域来说，成功的关键在于创造收入。虽然10-65岁的美国人口中使用三星手机的数量超过使用iPhone手机的数量：26% vs. 25%，但是在移动游戏方面，苹果比三星更为成功。沃曼表示，如果只看1.29亿游戏玩家和5800万美国移动游戏玩家这两个数字，iPhone用户比例分别为35%和45%。沃曼说：“虽然手机用户的绝对数量较少，但是苹果游戏玩家用户数量是三星的两倍。”

    说到苹果在游戏领域的地位，有必要看看iPhone、iPad和iPod Touch。苹果在iPod Touch方面没有对手，许多父母为了让孩子玩游戏和应用软件，专门为孩子购买iPod Touch，不用承担高额的智能手机费用。苹果在这方面的统治地位来源于它对苹果应用商店的成功控制。沃曼认为，三星避免发布有竞争力的产品，因为没有与苹果应用商店抗衡的产品，新产品也只是低利润的硬件。

    “由于苹果产品的屏幕尺寸相对固定且变化有限，开发商发布在iOS系统上运行的一两个版本的游戏就能获得较大的市场份额，”沃曼说。“为了从Google Play发布游戏获得收益，开发商必须开发更多的游戏版本，从而适应不同的设备和屏幕尺寸。这对于集中精力开发新游戏和优化游戏设置与商业模式的开发商而言，不是最理想的状态。”

    这正是迅速增长的移动游戏公司Supercell不急于让iOS系统运行的游戏《部落战争》（Clash of Clans）和《卡通农场》（Hay Day）进驻安卓设备的原因。这两款游戏每天从850万iOS游戏玩家获得的收入超过2,400万美元。就连Rovio和及其常见游戏《愤怒的小鸟》（Angry Birds）也登录了iOS系统，借助苹果应用商店冲到游戏排名的首位。

    沃曼表示，开发商蜂涌选择和坚持与苹果合作的原因在于，苹果对付费游戏玩家拥有超级覆盖率。例如，富裕的家庭通常购买苹果设备。消费者坚持购买苹果产品的原因在于iOS系统可使用的独家游戏的数量。这种生态系统为苹果形成了积极的反馈回路。

    苹果与中国移动公司（China Mobile）的潜在交易有望给苹果增加7亿中国用户，苹果在亚洲市场正在追赶三星。说到移动手机市场，沃曼认为，由于亚马逊（Amazon）能够提供无缝支付体验和苹果所拥有的货币水平，这使亚马逊成为苹果唯一的竞争对手。即使亚马逊提供免费智能手机的传言成为现实，苹果仍然是优胜者。

    沃曼说：“免费的亚马逊手机给三星造成的影响更大，因为它们依靠硬件获得利润。” “如果苹果手机比亚马逊的免费手机更酷更炫，人们还是会购买苹果产品，”沃曼指出，从价格因素严格考虑，选择智能手机对消费者而言是一个非常私人的决定。“苹果每年从苹果应用商店获得数十亿美元的佣金收入。此外，苹果也是内容开发商的移动平台首选，这个市场的不断细分也会增加苹果的收益。”

    虽然产品更新将对苹果起到重要作用，但是苹果显然稳占移动游戏市场的统治地位。新硬件创新对史蒂夫•乔布斯打造的公司只是锦上添花。（财富中文网）

    译者：乔树静/汪皓