A rising tide lifts all boats, and as the seasonally adjusted sales rate for cars and trucks races past 15 million units for the first six months of 2013, most everybody in autoland is looking good. But there are varying temperatures of good, ranging from sizzling to tepid, and a closer look behind the numbers can reveal the trajectories and directions of new industry trends. Here are some that have appeared so far this year.

    俗话说，水涨船高。今年上半年，经过销售季调整的汽车销量超过了1,500万辆，汽车行业的每家厂商看起来都算不错。不过热度也是有差异的，有的是大热，有的只是不温不火。仔细研究数据，我们可以发现行业新趋势的轨迹和方向，以下是今年以来体现出的新趋势。

Product segment: Winner

Pickups

    Truck sales are booming, thanks to increased consumer confidence and gains in construction activity and energy exploration. For the first six months of the year, sales of Ford (F, Fortune 500) F-series trucks rose 19.2%, and Chevy Silverado bumped ahead 25%, even though both are nearing the end of their model life, while Ram climbed 23%. Expect to see an escalation of truck sales wars soon. General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) launched its all-new 2014 Silverado on July 4th, and analysts are expecting Chevy to make a big advertising push to close the gap with the F-150.

产品类别：赢家

皮卡

    归功于消费者信心的增长以及建设活动和能源勘探的增加，皮卡的销量有了很大的提高。今年前六个月，福特（Ford）F系列皮卡的销量上涨了19.2%，雪佛兰（Chevy）Silverado的销量也猛增了25%——尽管这两款皮卡都已经到了现款设计的寿命晚期。同时道奇公羊（Dodge Ram）皮卡的销量也攀升了23%。预计我们很快就会看到皮卡大战的升级。通用汽车公司（GM）7月4日发布了全新的2014款雪佛兰Silverado，分析师们认为，雪佛兰将投入大量广告费用，以拉近与福特F-150的差距。

Product segment: Loser

Convertibles

    Automotive News reports that convertible sales have been basically flat for the past four years despite rising industry results. They now account for just 1% of the market. That's a steep drop from the heady days before the Great Recession, when drop-top share stood at 1.8% as recently as 2008. Those numbers could reverse in a hurry if a couple of models catch the public fancy. Convertibles are basically fashion items, and it would only take an eye-catcher or two to reignite the segment.

产品类别：输家

敞篷车

    据《汽车新闻》（Automotive News ）报道，尽管整个汽车行业保持向好趋势，但敞篷车的销量在过去四年里基本持平，只占汽车市场1%的份额，比大萧条之前有明显下降。2008年时，敞篷车的份额大概还在1.8%左右。不过如果有新的敞篷车型能够抓住广大消费者的眼球的话，敞篷车的市场份额可能会很快回弹。说到底，敞篷车基本上是一种时尚产品，只需要一两款抢眼的车型就可以重新点燃这个市场的热情。

Powertrain technology: Winner

Fuel cells

    Long the subject of overpromising and under-delivering (anybody remember GM's vow to get a marketable car on the road by 2010?), fuel cells are fashionable again. GM and Honda announced they're teaming up to develop a fuel-cell system for mass-market cars by 2020. The presence of Honda (HMC), a steadfast supporter of fuel cells that has continued to work on their development, adds credibility to the partnership. In a nod to needed infrastructure investment, the two companies also pledged to work together on storage technologies for the hydrogen needed to power fuel cells. An interested observer will be Toyota (TM), which recently confirmed it will put a fuel cell car on the road in 2014.

动力技术：赢家

燃料电池

    燃料电池动力技术一向是雷声大雨点小（还有没有人记得，通用汽车曾信誓旦旦地表示，要在2010年前推出一款量产级的燃料电池轿车?），不过最近它又火了起来。通用和本田（Honda）宣布，两家将联手研发一款燃料电池动力汽车，在2020年前投放市场。随着一直致力这项技术的本田的加入，这次合作显得多少更靠谱了些。这两家公司也表示将共同开发用于燃料电池的氢燃料的存储技术。而丰田公司（Toyota）最近也确认将在2014年推出一款燃料电池汽车。

Powertrain technology: Loser

Diesels

    Automakers continue to roll out more diesels, but the buzz factor is close to zero, and outside of a Volkswagen showroom, the handful of models available look like orphans. VW now sells five diesel models that represent a fifth of its U.S. sales, but it is experiencing a transition year in 2013 with flat sales while it waits for redesigned models to arrive. Elsewhere, new for 2013 are diesel-powered Chevy Cruzes, Mazda6's, and Jeep Grand Cherokees -- all pioneering models for their brands -- but you would hardly know it from the lack of attention.

动力技术：输家

柴油

    各大汽车厂商还在继续推出柴油车型，但是它们的亮点却越来越少。大众展厅外停着的几款柴油车型看起来就像无人问津的孤儿。大众公司（Volkswagen）目前在美国销售的5款柴油车型占它在美所有在售车型的五分之一，但今年柴油车型销量平平，大众也正在经历许多客户向汽油车型转型的一年，同时它也在等待新车型到店。除了大众之外，2013款的雪佛兰科鲁兹（Cruze）、马自达6（Mazda 6）和吉普大切诺基（Jeep Grand Cherokee）也都有自己的柴油版。这些车型都是各自品牌的排头兵，但是你可能很少听说过它们还出过柴油版，因为它们所吸引的关注实在太少了。

Volume brands: Winner

Ford division

    In an overall market that rose 8% for the first half, Ford sales went up 14%. Ford's small cars, the Fiesta and Focus, are selling strongly, as are its crossovers and pickups, and the company is starting up a second assembly line to meet demand for the mid-size Fusion. Ford is also turning into a hybrid powerhouse. Its sales of gas/electric vehicles are now second only to Toyota.

品牌销量：赢家

福特

    今年上半年，美国车市总体销量上涨了8%，而福特汽车的销量上涨了14%。福特的小型车，比如嘉年华（Fiesta）和福克斯（Fox），以及跨界、皮卡等车型的销量都十分抢眼。为了满足市场对中型车福星（Fusion）的需求，福特还开设了第二条生产线。同时福特还正在向混合动力转型，它的油电混合动力车型的销量目前仅次于丰田。

Volume brands: Loser

Hyundai

    The once-hot hot Korean automaker saw sales rise only 1% in the first half, as capacity constraints kept a lid on the availability of popular models like the Elantra. The good news is demand remained strong, so fleet sales stayed low, and Hyundai dealers saw their inventories turn over quickly.

品牌销量：输家

现代

    现代汽车（Hyundai）是一度大热的韩国汽车厂商，但它今年上半年的销量只上涨了1%，主要原因是由于产能限制导致伊兰特（Elantra）等热卖车型供给不足。好消息是市场对现代汽车的需求仍然强劲，所以它的车队销量仍然保持低位，同时经销商的存货出清速度也很快。

International markets: Winner

Indonesia

    Even while China is cooling off, Indonesia expects GDP to grow 6.8% this year. Its 240 million inhabitants bought one million cars last year, and some expect sales to double over the next three years. The McKinsey Global Institute says an additional 90 million people will join Indonesia's consumer class by 2030 when the country could overtake Britain to become the world's seventh-largest economy.

国际市场：赢家

印度尼西亚

    虽然中国经济正在降温，但印尼今年的GDP增长率却有望达到6.8%。印尼拥有2.4亿人口，去年印尼人民共购买了100万辆汽车，有人预计印尼的汽车销量未来三年内将翻一番。麦肯锡全球学院（McKinsey Global Institute）表示，到2030年，印尼将超过英国成为全球第七大经济体，届时还将有额外的90万印尼人加入汽车的消费大军。

International markets: Loser

Europe

    The European auto market peaked in 2007 at nearly 16 million new passenger vehicles, and it has been in retreat ever since. Through May, sales were down nearly 7%, while results for the month itself were their worst in 20 years. Some expect the plunge to bottom out this year, but others aren't so optimistic. The unemployment rate for the Eurozone has reached a record 12.2%, and most of the new car business is simply going to replace older, worn out vehicles with little evidence of fresh demand.

国际市场：输家

欧洲

    2007年，欧洲共卖出了近1,600万辆乘用车，创造了历史纪录。不过，自那以后欧洲车市逐年转冷。今年五月，欧洲车市销量同比下降了近7%，当月销量创下了近20年来年的最低值。有人预计，欧洲车市将于今年触底，但也有很多人并不这么乐观。欧元区的失业率已经达到历史性的12.2%，几乎所有人买新车都是为了替换旧车，很少有新需求的迹象。

Domestic luxury: Winner

Cadillac

    The Standard of Excellence notched a 33% gain for the first half, almost entirely due to the success of two new models. Cadillac sold 19,183 of the smaller, sportier ATS and 14,664 of the larger, more traditional XTS. Their success bodes well for the redesigned 2014 CTS.

本土豪车：赢家

凯迪拉克

    今年上半年，凯迪拉克（Cadillac）的优秀水平提高了33%，这基本上都要归功于两款新车的成功。上半年凯迪拉克卖出了19,183台运动风格的ATS轿车，以及14,664台风格较为传统、尺寸更大的XTS轿车。它们的成功也给重新设计的2014款CTS带来了一个好兆头。

Domestic luxury: Loser

Lincoln

    New models haven't done much to float Lincoln's boat. The "sensible luxury" brand saw sales fall 9% as the launch of the MKZ has so far failed to lift sales at all from the previous model.

本土豪车：输家

林肯

    新车型的发布并没有起到挽狂澜于既倒的效果。林肯（Lincoln）MKZ发布以来，销量跟老款比没有任何好转，号称“能感受到的奢华”的林肯只能咽下销量下跌9%的苦果。

Import luxury: Winner

Porsche

    Showing no ill effects of its acquisition by Volkswagen, the German sports car maker recorded a sizzling 30% improvement, thanks to redesigned Boxsters and Caymans and continued strength from the 911 Carrera. If Porsche sales were a leading indicator, the U.S. economy would be heading toward an economic boom of enormous proportions.

进口豪车：赢家

保时捷

    被大众汽车收购并没有给保时捷（Porsche）的销量带来负面效果。今年上半年，保时捷的销量令人吃惊地猛增30%。当然，这很大程度上要感谢继承了911 Carrera基因的Boxster和Cayman的两款改款车型的良好表现。如果保时捷的销量能变成美国经济的一个先行指标的话，美国经济将迎来巨大幅度的强劲增长。

Import luxury: Loser

Infiniti

    Struggling with a new naming convention (alphanumerics starting with Q for passenger cars) and in the early stages of a product line overhaul, Infiniti saw sales fall 13% to 52,233 units. Now selling just 170,000 cars a year worldwide, the brand will have a tough time reaching its goal of 600,000 a year by 2020.

进口豪车：输家

英菲尼迪

    由于采取了新的命名规则（由Q打头），再加上英菲尼迪（Infiniti）正处于产品线大改的早期阶段，今年上半年，该品牌的销量下降了13%，仅售出52,233辆。目前英菲尼迪的全球年销量只有17万辆。英菲尼迪要想达到2020年前年销售60万辆的目标，还有一段很艰难的路要走。

Niche brands: Winner

Subaru

    A redesigned Forester, its most popular model, and the all-new XV Crosstrek lifted Subaru sales to new heights, up a sparkling 25%. Having outgrown its Philadelphia-area headquarters, Subaru is searching for new digs to accommodate its larger volume.

小众品牌：赢家

斯巴鲁

    斯巴鲁（Subaru）最受欢迎的森林人（Forester）SUV的改款，加上全新推出的跨界车XV，使斯巴鲁的销量达到了一个新的高度，上涨了整整25%。由于费城总部已经难以满足需要，斯巴鲁正在另寻新址，以便满足越来越大的出货量。

Niche brands: Loser

Volvo

    The once-proud Swedish automaker, now under Chinese ownership, saw sales fall 6% for its aging product line. Dealers are hoping to get a lift later this year from four face-lifted models that represent the core of its U.S. business, but Volvo is just not keeping up with the competition.

小众品牌：输家

沃尔沃

    一度令瑞典人骄傲的沃尔沃（Volvo）自从被中国企业收购后，由于产品线日趋老化，上半年的销量已下跌6%。今年下半年，沃尔沃将有四款车型重新拉皮上市。这四款车型代表了沃尔沃美国业务的核心，经销商们希望通过它们使销量有所提升，不过看样子沃尔沃实在是很难跟上竞争形势。

Public perceptions: Winner

The luxury car sales race

    If the auto business spawned a reality TV show, a popular episode would feature the battle between luxury car brands for No. 1 bragging rights. Thanks to blanket media coverage, the day-to-day fortunes of Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Lexus have become better known in car circles than the Kardashians. For the record, Mercedes held a narrow lead over BMW at this year's halfway mark, but that's without taking into account lease deals, sales incentives, and other promotions, much less the arrival of new models later in the year.

公众认知：赢家

豪车销量竞赛

    如果把汽业行业改编成一套真人秀节目，那么豪华品牌之间的销量大战肯定可以改编成非常抓人眼球的一集。归功于无孔不入的媒体报道，奔驰（Mercedes-Benz）、宝马（BMW）、雷克萨斯（Lexus）等品牌的日常动态在车友圈里几乎比《卡戴姗姐妹》（Kardashians）的关注度还高。今年上半年，奔驰暂时以微小差距领先宝马，但是这还没有算进租约交易、销售激励以及其它促销因素，更不用提下半年双方还各有不少新车即将上市。

Public perceptions: Loser

The Asian advantage

    The revival of the U.S. auto industry is a popular topic, but the conversation tends to overlook some worrisome trends. After Ford and Chevy, the next five most popular brands during the month of June were Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Hyundai, and Kia. Together they sold 501,153 vehicles in June vs. 420,908 for Detroit's Big Two. When you look at passenger cars alone, the gap is even wider. Toyota sold more passenger cars than either Ford or Chevy in June, and combined, Asia owned 43.6% of the car market vs. 28.2% for America, including Dodge. With China now the world's largest single car market, the auto industry is tilting more and more to the East.

公众认知：输家

亚洲优势

    美国汽车业的复兴是当下的一个时髦话题，但这个话题忽视了一些令人担忧的趋势。除了福特和雪佛兰之外，六月最受欢迎的汽车品牌包括丰田、本田、日产（Nissan）、现代和起亚（Kia）。五大亚洲厂商今年六月共售出501,153台车，底特律双雄加起来共售出420,908台车。如果只关注乘用车领域，双方的差距更大。今年六月，丰田的乘用车销量比福特和雪佛兰都要高，“亚洲五虎”共控制了美国乘用车市场的43.6%，相比之下，包括道奇在内的“美国三杰”只占据了本土市场的28.2%。随着中国已经成为全球最大的单一汽车市场，整个汽车业都在越来越向东方倾斜。（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎