Dear Annie:I hope you and your readers can help me make a decision. I've been offered a job I think would be great, but I'm hesitating to take it. Here's the situation: When I joined my current employer in 2008, I was hired by a boss who had been my mentor in a previous position. We worked well together and everything was fine — until she got promoted in late 2011. Her replacement is someone very ambitious who got the job by politics, not ability, and is arrogant, short-tempered, and all-around awful. I still really like the work I'm doing here, but I've been gritting my teeth, just waiting for the job market to improve so I can get away from him.

    So I was thrilled to get offered an interesting opportunity elsewhere. Just one thing: The company I'd be moving to has gone through several rounds of layoffs recently and, according to acquaintances of mine who work there, the cuts are far from over. I'd hate to finally escape this place and then end up unemployed. Any thoughts? — Antsy

    Dear Antsy:You're wise to think twice, in this crazy job market. On the one hand, things seem to be looking up. The number of unemployed people per job opening has fallen from 6.2 at the official end of the recession in June 2009 to 3.1 in April of this year (the most recent figure available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics).

    Another sign that hiring is picking up: About two-thirds (64%) of employed Americans say they've gotten either a "feeler" or a firm job offer from a different company over the past 12 months, according to a recent survey by consultants Right Management — and, as more opportunities open up, the BLS reports, people are grabbing them, quitting their jobs at a rate that's 39% higher, at 2.1 million in April, than during the worst of the slump.

    On the other hand, however, your prospective employer isn't the only one still slashing headcount. Outplacement giant Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which tracks the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies, reported July 3 that planned job cuts were 8.2% higher in June than in the month before.

    For a snapshot of the mixed jobs picture now, consider career site Glassdoor's most recent quarterly Employment Confidence Survey: 43% of full-time employees think they could find a great new job in the next six months, the highest percentage since 2009. Yet at the same time, more than one in five (22%) are "concerned they could be laid off in the next six months," the highest that figure has risen since early 2011.

    Against that backdrop, says Annie Stevens, anyone thinking of jumping ship "should examine the potential negative consequences more carefully than they would in a better economy." Stevens is managing partner of Boston-based executive coaching firm ClearRock. She offers four reasons to stay put for at least a little while longer:

1. It's still a buyer's market, and competition is fierce. The 3.1 job seekers chasing each available job is a lot less daunting than the record high of 6.7 in July 2009 — but, notes Stevens, it's still twice as high as the 1.6 unemployed people per opening in November 2007, the month before the recession started. Okay, but if you already have an offer, why should you care? Because, Stevens says, the abundance of qualified candidates has the effect of driving down your market value: "Salaries and overall compensation packages may not be as attractive as when changing jobs in a better economy."

    亲爱的安妮：希望您和您的读者们能帮我出个主意。我收到了一个在我看来很不错的工作邀请，但我一直在犹豫要不要接受。情况是这样的：我在2008年加入目前所在的这家公司，聘用我的上司是我之前一个岗位的导师。我们在一起配合默契，一切都很顺利——直到2011年底她获得晋升。接替她的人很有野心，这个人凭借关系、而不是能力上位。这个人自大傲慢，脾气暴躁，令我非常不舒服。虽然我依然很喜欢在这家公司，但我一直在咬着忍耐现在的上司，只等就业市场好转，我就可以彻底离开他了。

    所以，当其他公司给我提供一个非常有意思的机会时，我感到非常激动。只是有一点：据一位在那里工作的熟人介绍，向我发出邀请的这家公司刚刚进行过几轮裁员，而且裁员尚未结束。我可不想离开现在的公司，最后却落得失业的境地。您有什么看法？——“左右为难”

    亲爱的“左右为难”：当前就业形势很疯狂，跳槽之前三思而后行是非常明智的做法。虽然情况看起来似乎有所好转：目前每个职位空缺的竞争人数从2009年6月官方正式宣布经济衰退结束时的6.2人减少到了今年4月的3.1人【美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）提供的最新数据】。

    另外一个现象是招聘活动更加活跃：据睿仕管理咨询公司（Right Management）最近进行的一项调查显示，约有三分之二（64%）被雇佣的美国人表示，在过去12个月内，他们收到过不同公司“试探性的”或者确定的工作邀请。而且据劳工统计局报告，随着机会的增多，人们并没有放过这些机会，四月份的离职率比经济衰退最严重的时期提高了39%，达到210万人。

    但在另一方面，你的潜在雇主并不是唯一正在裁员的公司。再就业服务公司查林格、格雷及克里斯马斯（Challenger, Gray & Christmas）对美国公司公布的裁员数量进行了跟踪，7月3日报告称，六月份的计划裁员数量比5月份增加了8.2%。

    要想了解当前复杂的就业形势，可以参考就业网站Glassdoor最近一个季度的《就业信心调查》（Employment Confidence Survey）：43%的全职员工认为，他们在未来六个月可以找到一份很棒的新工作，创下2009年以来的新高。但与此同时，超过五分之一（22%）的人 “担心他们在未来六个月可能下岗”，达到2011年初开始统计该数据以来的最高水平。

    安妮•史蒂文斯表示，在这样的背景下，任何考虑跳槽的人“都应该抱着比经济繁荣时期更谨慎的态度，仔细考虑潜在的负面后果。”史蒂文斯是波士顿高管培训公司ClearRock的主理合伙人。她认为至少目前应该坚守当前的工作岗位，同时给出了四条理由：

1. 目前仍然是买方市场，竞争异常激烈。每个职位空缺有3.1个人竞争，相比2009年7月历史最高的6.7个人并不算太可怕——但史蒂文斯发现，在危机爆发之前的2007年11月，每个空缺仅有1.6个人竞争，目前仍然是当时的两倍。可既然你已经收到了工作邀请，还有什么好担心的呢？史蒂文斯表示，这是因为，大量合格的候选人会降低你的市场价值：“工资和总体薪酬可能远远没有经济好转之后换工作那般诱人。”

2. New hires are under more pressure now. "Companies hiring people now are expecting them to make a noticeable impact immediately, by increasing sales, cutting costs, or improving productivity," Stevens says. "In a strong economy, employers customarily give new hires about six months in which to prove themselves, but that window has been cut in half." That isn't necessarily a bad thing but, before you accept the new job you've been offered, make sure you understand the company's expectations — and decide whether you can meet them.

3. Last hired, first fired. "Newly hired employees may be the first ones affected by cutbacks," Stevens says. "The shorter time period you have for producing results, and the availability of lots of qualified candidates, means employers often pull the trigger sooner — and offer less generous severance, if any — than in a better economy." That's especially true if your cultural "fit" with the new organization isn't perfect. Frictionless teamwork and the need to achieve collective goals take on increased urgency in a shaky economy, she adds: "Those who don't fit in are out sooner." So before you take the new job offer, make sure the fit is solid.

4. Different isn't always better. "Some people quit their jobs based on one isolated incident, or one negative performance review" — or argument with a boss — "and then regret it," says Stevens, who has seen many cases of job changers' remorse. Since the only thing making you unhappy in your current job seems to be your difficult boss, consider looking around inside the company for some other opportunity.

    Another possibility: Just wait him out. Plenty of research shows that, on average, managers change jobs — either quitting to go elsewhere or getting kicked upstairs — every two years. Your manager's two years are almost up and, particularly since you mention he's "ambitious," he may be out of there before much longer. Many an office farewell party is a thinly veiled celebration of the fact that So-and-So is finally leaving.

    Talkback: If you've considered changing jobs recently, what made you decide to go for it — or not? Leave a comment below.

2. 目前，新员工面临更大的压力。史蒂文斯说：“进行招聘的公司希望聘用的人能立刻带来显著的影响，比如增加销量、削减成本或提高效率等。在经济繁荣时期，雇主按照惯例会给新员工六个月时间来证明他们自己的能力，但现在这个时间被缩短了一半。”这不见得是坏事，但在接受新的工作邀请之前，一定要确保自己了解公司的预期，同时确认自己是不是能够达到对方的预期。

3. 最后被聘用，最先被解雇。史蒂文斯说：“新聘用的员工在裁员风暴中可能首当其冲。一方面，你做出成果的时间缩短，另一方面又有大量合格的候选人可供选择，这意味着雇主通常会比经济繁荣时期更快做出决定——而且，提供的赔偿金也会大打折扣。”当新人与新公司的文化契合不够完美的时候，尤其容易出现这样的结局。在不稳定的经济状况下，无摩擦的团队合作，以及实现集体目标的要求，变得日益紧迫。她补充道：“不适合的人很快就会被淘汰。”所以，在接受新工作之前，一定确保可靠的岗位契合度。

4. 差异并不总是好事。史蒂文斯说：“有些人会因为一件孤立的小事或一次负面的绩效评估，或者因为与上司吵架而辞职，后来却又后悔。”史蒂文斯见过许多跳槽之后后悔的例子。既然在当前的工作中唯一让你苦恼的是那位难缠的上司，为什么不考虑在公司内部寻找其他机会？

    另外一种可能：等着他离开。大量研究表明，管理者平均每两年更换一次工作——要么辞职去其他公司，要么明升暗降。你的上司快到“两年之痒”了，尤其是你说他“很有野心”，或许不用等到两年他就已经不在这里了。许多办公室里的送别派对其实都是为了庆祝某人终于离职了。

    反馈：如果你最近在考虑换工作，是什么原因让你有这样的想法？如果没有这种考虑，原因又是什么呢？欢迎评论。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓