奢侈品市场是否会褪去浮华？普拉达（Prada）、路易威登集团【LVMH，旗下拥有路易威登（Louis Vitton）、汤玛仕•品客（Thomas Pink）、凯歌香槟（Veuve Clicquot）等品牌）和历峰集团（Richemont，旗下拥有卡地亚（Cartier）品牌】等公司的股票看上去就像这些公司销售的奢侈品一样光彩照人。过去几年，在中国消费者的带动下，这些公司的股票翻了近一番。但如今，中国消费者的购买热潮似乎正在退去，而它可能影响奢侈品公司的股票表现。

    奢侈品行业股票通常被视为防御性投资产品。即便是在经济衰退期间，有钱人也会购买昂贵的手提包和金灿灿的腕表。但在过去几年，奢侈品公司开始将目标扩大到“引领型买家”——即年收入在30,000美元至100,000美元之间的群体。虽然中产阶级每次购买的花费远不及真正的富豪，但渴望变成富人的人却要多得多。这便是所谓的积少成多。

    这些人便成为奢侈品牌有利可图的全新消费群体，尤其是在中产阶级迅速壮大的中国。近期，据高盛（Goldman Sachs）估算，中产阶级约占全球奢侈品消费人群的38%。而来自中国的奢侈品消费开支更高，人均消费782美元，年均消费241美元。中国潜在的中产阶级消费市场从1995年的100万人已经扩大到今天的3,700万人。而据高盛预测，至2025年，这个市场将增长到2.56亿人，复合年增长率为14.1%。

    奢侈品公司的股票也反应了这个增长趋势。自2011年秋，普拉达公司股票上涨超过140%，历峰集团股票的涨幅也接近75%。彭博欧洲奢侈品指数（Bloomberg European Luxury Goods Index）总体涨幅超过50%，其中包括托德斯（Tod's）和萨瓦尔多•菲拉格慕（Salvatore Ferragamo）等其他公司的股票。而同期道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial Average）涨幅约为30%。

    然而，有批评家基于多个理由质疑这种增长能否持续。首先，中国房地产市场的繁荣造就了一大批富人。但中国执行的是非常严格的抵押贷款制度，例如个人无追索权贷款和高首付比例等。过去几年，这些规定限制了买家，造成房地产市场供大于求。房地产市场逐渐衰弱，可能削弱中国中产阶级的购买力。

    虽然到目前为止，奢侈品市场减速的迹象尚不明显，但瑞士联合银行（UBS）已经发出了警告。中国经济学家王涛（音译）在2011年3月的一份报告中指出：“鉴于房地产与建筑行业的庞大规模，及其在推动经济增长中的重要作用，只要因政策或资产偏好发生变化导致房地产需求‘退热’，就都有可能导致中国总体经济硬着陆。”

    此外还有其他一些更为复杂的因素。在中国，有人购买奢侈品作为礼物，向地方官员换取房地产项目。而中国政府正在下大力气减少“送礼”行为。而且，零售商还不得不应付其他一些“中国特色”。例如，与日本不同，中国奢侈品购买者以男性为主，这种传统由来已久。虽然有人成这种状况正在发生变化，但男性消费者对产品的忠诚度不如女性，或者说，他们不会“盲目”消费。

    Is the glitz about to come off the luxury market? Stocks of companies like Prada, LVMH (owner of Louis Vuitton, Thomas Pink, Veuve Clicquot) and Richemont (owner of Cartier) look like they are costing some bling. Chinese consumers have helped some of them nearly double over the last couple of years. But some Chinese buyers look set to take a break, and this could hurt stock prices.

    Luxury stocks are often thought of as a defensive investment. Wealthy people buy fancy handbags and glittery watches even during a recession. But over the past several years, luxury companies branched out by targeting"aspirational buyers" -- those with income between $30,000 and $100,000 a year. Though the middle class hardly spends as much per purchase, there are simply more aspiring rich than actual rich. The masses add up to quite a lot.

    This has been a lucrative new group for luxury brands, particularly in China where there is now a burgeoning middle class. Middle class accounts for 38% of global luxury goods spending, according to recent estimates from Goldman Sachs. These purchasers in China spend more too, $782 on average versus $241 annually. China's potential market for middle class buyers has gone from 1 million people in 1995 to 37 million today. Goldman expects it to grow to 256 million in 2025, at a CAGR of 14.1%.

    Stocks have reflected this growth. Prada (PRDSY) is up more than 140% since fall 2011. Richemont is up nearly 75%. Overall the Bloomberg European Luxury Goods Index, which includes other stocks like Tod's and Salvatore Ferragamo, is up more than 50%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen about 30% over the same period.

    But critics question if the growth can continue, for several reasons. First, China's housing boom has helped line some pockets. But the country has more stringent mortgage restrictions, such as recourse loans for individuals and high down payments. These stipulations have curtailed buyers over the past few years, creating an oversupply of building. Any decline in this market could chip away at the buying power of some middle-class Chinese.

    That slowdown isn't showing yet, but UBS has been warning about its risks for a while. "Given the sheer size of the property and construction sector and its heavy role in driving growth, even just having housing demand 'fade away' because of changes in policy or asset preferences could already lead to a hard landing of the overall economy," said China economist Tao Wang in a March 2011 report.

    There are other complications as well. Some people were buying luxury products as presents for local officials in exchange for rights to build. But the Chinese government is making strides to cut down on the practice of "gifting." And retailers have to grapple with other idiosyncrasies. For example, unlike in Japan, historically Chinese luxury goods buyers are mostly men. Though some say this is changing, men may not be quite as loyal -- or spontaneous -- customers.

    总之，在过去几个月，中国奢侈品零售已经大幅减少。据香港统计处（Hong Kong Census & Statistics Department）统计，2011年中期，珠宝首饰、腕表和钟表的零售额每月的增长幅度均高于总体零售额的增长速度，至年中已经达到50%的年均增长速度。但截至2012年1月，该领域的增长速度放缓，甚至低于总体零售额增长幅度。至去年十月之前的七个月中，奢侈品零售有五个月实际处于下滑趋势。

    即便如此，高盛仍坚持其看涨的预测。

    分析师威廉•哈钦斯在近期的一份报告中称：“2012年，中国奢侈品需求放缓，大多数公司在中国仅出现了个位数中段至略高于两位数的增长速度。我们相信这种放缓实际掩盖了潜在的趋势，因为随着欧元贬值，欧洲游更加火爆，随之而来的是很大一部分需求从亚洲转移到了欧洲。”

    但假如批评家的预测是正确的，中国中产阶级突然不再购买奢侈品，奢侈品公司股票又会如何呢？不妨看看高盛的粗略分析：高盛估算，中国中产阶级占全球奢侈品需求的7%。我们以历峰集团（该公司拒绝对本文发表评论）为例。该公司市值为290亿欧元（386亿美元），据高盛预测，它今年收入约为102亿欧元（136亿美元），但如果突然失去中国中产阶级消费者，公司销售额可能减少7亿欧元（9.32亿美元）。我们将其转换成股价，假设其他条件不变，一位投资者在未计利息、税金、折旧、摊销11倍市盈率时买进该公司股票，并与10倍市盈率时买进股票进行对比。这已经是过去几年历峰集团股票的最高市盈率。

    当然，这种分析并不完美。中产阶级不可能集体流失或突然之间流失。零售商早先的报告显示，第四季度销售额实际出现上涨。高盛还预测，至2025年，中国中产阶级将占全球奢侈品需求的17%。既然这种超速增长已经被作为股价的考虑因素，一旦需求减少，股价的下跌幅度可能更大。

    许多公司一反常态，在投资者警觉之前提前敲响了警钟。去年九月，博柏利（Burberry）针对其利润发出警告，很大程度上是因为公司在中国的销售放缓。博柏利首席财务官史黛丝•卡特莱特当时对《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal ）称：“我们的同行不见得有这种感觉。但我们肯定不是唯一的一家。亚洲市场确实出现了放缓趋势，主要是中国市场。”

    去年，历峰集团董事长兼首席执行官约翰•鲁伯特承认，公司极易受到某个具体市场的影响，这种情况很危险。约翰•鲁伯特说：“我感觉自己像是坐在火山山顶享受晚餐一样。未来的10年或是20年，某个市场就会像火山一样爆发。中国市场对我们意义重大。”（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    All told, luxury retail sales in China have slowed dramatically over the past several months. In mid-2011, retail sales growth for jewelry, watches, and clocks grew faster every month than retail sales overall, hitting nearly 50% annual growth in mid-2011, according to statistics from the Hong Kong Census & Statistics Department. But by January 2012, growth in this segment slowed to a slower pace than retail sales. In five of the last seven months leading up to October last year, luxury retail sales actually declined.

    Goldman Sachs stands by its bullish estimates, even in light of this.

    "In 2012, luxury demand in China has slowed, with most companies now reporting mid-single-digit to low-double-digit growth rates in the country," analyst William Hutchings said in a recent report. "We believe that this slowdown has masked the underlying trends, as there has been a significant transfer of demand from Asia to Europe as the take-off in travel trends has coincided with a weaker euro."

    But what would happen to luxury stocks if the critics were right, and middle-class Chinese consumers suddenly stopped buying these goods? Consider this back-of-the-envelope analysis: Goldman Sachs estimates that the Chinese middle class contribute 7% of global demand for luxury goods. Let's assume this is the case for Richemont, who declined to comment for this article. The €29 billion ($38.6 billion) company should make €10.2 billion ($13.6 billion) in revenue this year, according to Goldman Sachs, but sales would fall by €700 million ($932 million) if the Chinese middle-class buyer suddenly went away. Let that work its way into valuation, assuming everything else stays the same, and an investor would be buying the stock at 11 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization, versus 10 times. That's the top of where Richemont has traded for the last several years.

    Of course, this analysis isn't perfect. The middle class probably wouldn't go away altogether, or all of a sudden. And some early reports from retailers show that fourth quarter sales may have actually picked up. But Goldman also estimates that the Chinese middle class could contribute as much as 17% of global demand by 2025. To the extent that this hyper growth is already being factored into the stock price, it could fall even more dramatically if demand tapered off.

    In a somewhat odd break from the norm, companies are sounding the alarm ahead of investors. Last September, Burberry (BBRYF) issued a warning on its profits, partly because sales were slowing in China. "It's not necessarily being felt by all of our peers, but we're certainly not alone," Burberry Chief Financial Officer Stacey Cartwright told the Wall Street Journal at the time. "Yes, we are seeing a slowdown in Asia, and yes, China is a significant contributor to that."

    Last year, the chief executive of Richemont Johann Rupert admitted that the company may be dangerously vulnerable to one market. "I feel like I'm having a black tie dinner on top of a volcano," said Johann Rupert, executive chairman and CEO. "There is a volcano somewhere, whether it's this year, in ten years' time, or in twenty years' time. We are exposed to China."