The stock market has been falling recently on fears that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner than some thought, perhaps as early as June. Indeed, on Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed is thinking about dropping a key word in its next policy statement. That might pave the way for a hike as soon as the middle of the year.

    So, when will the Fed pull the trigger? My bet: It’s won’t happen as soon as people think. Here are four reasons the Fed is not going to raise rates anytime soon (or at least not as soon as June, or even this summer):

    最近美国股市持续下跌，原因是人们担心美联储上调利率的时间会早于预期，也许会在6月份。确实，《华尔街日报》也在周三的报道中指出，美联储正在考虑在下次公布货币政策声明时抛出一个关键词。这或许会为美联储最快在今年年中加息铺平道路。

    那么，美联储会在什么时候动手呢？我的看法是，不会像人们所想的那么早。短时间内美联储不会提高利率（至少不会在6月份，甚至是今年夏天），原因如下：

    1. Rates can still go lower

    Many people say the Fed needs to raise interest rates because they have no where to go but up. If we were to run into another recession in the U.S. or just an economic downturn, the argument goes, then the Fed would not be able to lower interest rates to give the economy a boost.

    The "lower bound" is a term economists use to describe the long-held belief that interest rates can't go below zero. But, as we have seen recently, that's not true. Currently, Switzerland's central bank has set its short-term interest rates at negative 0.75%. Many economists there think it should be set as low as negative 1.5%. And plenty of European countries are now selling bonds with negative interest rates.

    So, there might be a lower bound, but it's not zero, meaning the Fed doesn't need to raise interest rates just so they can cut them later.

    1. 利率仍有下调空间

    许多人都说，美联储需要提高利率，因为除此之外别无选择。他们的依据是，如果美国经济再次陷入衰退，或者只是出现经济滑坡，现在不加息的话美联储就无法通过下调利率来提振经济。

    长期以来，人们一直认为利率不能低于零，经济学家用“下限”来描述这种观点。但正如最近我们所见，情况并非如此。瑞士央行已将短期利率降至负0.75%。许多瑞士经济学家则认为，该行应将其定为负1.5%。同时，许多欧洲国家目前也在发行负利率债券。

    因此，下限或许存在，但这个下限并不是零。也就是说，美联储不必只是为了方便以后降息而提高利率。

    2. The job market is weaker than it looks

    Unemployment dropped to 5.5% in February. The jobs report for that month kicked off the latest round of anxiety about the trajectory of interest rates. But the job market may not be as strong as it looks. Thomas Lam, an economist at RHB Securities Singapore who watches the flow of workers in and out of employment, says that the so-called job finding rate—that is, the chances of an unemployed person landing a job in any given month—has been growing worse this year. Last month's report showed a rise in the number of long-term unemployed people as well as a jump in the number of people not included in the workforce, meaning they are not even looking for work.

    On top of that, wages are not rising. The February report showed that the average hourly pay of a U.S. worker has risen just $0.03 in the past year.

    2. 就业市场没有看上去那么强劲

    2月份，美国失业率降至5.5%。受当月就业报告影响，人们再次对利率走势感到不安。但就业市场可能没有看上去那么强劲。RHB Securities Singapore经济学家托马斯•拉姆一直在观察美国的就业和失业趋势。他指出，进入2015年后，所谓的工作寻获率一直在下降。这个指标体现的是失业者在某个月份找到工作的可能性。2月份报告表明，长期失业者增多，未纳入劳动力群体的人数也在大幅上升，也就是说他们甚至都没去找工作。此外，工资并未上升。从该报告中可以看出，一年来美国就业者的平均小时工资仅提高了0.03美元。

    3. The global economy is slowing

    The U.S. economy's recovery may finally be coming on strong. But take a look around. The rest of the world is slowing down. Much of Europe is in a recession or near it. And China recently cut its GDP estimate, again. As a large consumer of natural resources, even a small slowdown in China is bound to have repercussions for the rest of the world. And while lower oil prices should help the U.S. economy, it's a disaster for economies in the Middle East, Brazil, and particularly Russia. The U.S. economy is more connected to the global economy than ever before, so all of this is bound to slow America down a bit as well.

    4. A strong dollar will slow exports

    Raising interest rates is only going to make the dollar—which has already been rising against other currencies—climb higher. That's likely to make it harder for U.S. companies to export their goods around the world, where they are likely to see less demand anyway.

    What's more, falling prices around the world, along with the drop in oil prices, is likely to hold down costs here as well. With very little inflation, the Fed doesn't have to rush to raise interest rates. And it hasn't been in a rush. Interest rates have been close to zero for nearly seven years. Don't expect that to change so fast.

    3. 全球经济正在放缓

    美国经济也许终于开始强势复苏。但放眼海外，全球其他地区的经济都在放缓。欧洲地区有很大一部分都处于衰退之中，或者即将陷入衰退。最近中国也再次下调GDP目标。作为自然资源主要消费国，就算中国经济增速只是小幅下降，世界其他地区也会受到巨大影响。油价下跌虽应有利于美国经济，但它对中东、巴西和俄罗斯这样的经济体来说是一场灾难，特别是俄罗斯。美国经济和全球经济的联系比以往任何时候都要紧密，因此所有这些因素也会让美国经济稍稍放慢增长脚步。

    4. 强势美元将阻碍出口增长

    美元一直在升值，而加息只会让它进一步走强。这可能提高美国公司向世界其他地区出口产品的难度，但不管怎么样，后者对美国商品的需求都有可能下降。

    同时，随着油价下滑，世界各地的价格水平都在下跌，这可能让成本保持在较低水平。在通胀率非常低的情况下，美联储就不必急于提高利率。而且它一直也没有着急。近七年来，美国的利率一直接近于零。别指望这种情况会那么快地发生改变。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    审校: 李翔