Has anyone had a better start to 2014 than Boeing? One week into the new year, the Chicago-based aircraft manufacturer has won a critical labor battle, bested its European rival in total airframe deliveries for the year just completed, and announced a fresh $4.4 billion, 42-plane order for its new, fuel-efficient 737 MAX airliner from Indian budget carrier SpiceJet. To be fair, Boeing says at least part of that order is included in its 2013 order numbers and therefore is already part of its existing backlog, but still -- not a bad way to kick off the new year.

    "I think it's been a very good four-month streak," Richard Aboulafia, VP of analysis at Fairfax, Va.,-based aerospace industry analysis firm Teal Group, says of Boeing (BA). "You're burying the lead if you're confining this to just the start of the year -- November saw the very strong launch of the 777X. So it's been a fantastic few months."

    Going into 2014, Boeing looks particularly well-positioned within the global commercial aerospace industry. Numbers released Monday show that for the second year running Boeing outdelivered chief rival Airbus, producing a record 648 jetliners last year (Airbus hasn't officially released its final numbers yet, but industry sources report it produced more than 625 but less than Boeing's 648). Its stock is hovering around its 52-week high. The 787 Dreamliner is past its early growing pains and into mature production. Its new aircraft are showing strong orders right off the bat. And, Aboulafia adds, it dodged a bullet as the deferral of sequestration has eliminated a serious threat to its defense business.

    That's not the only bullet the company has dodged of late. Since the November launch of the 777X -- an updated, more efficient version of Boeing's mainstay 777 wide-body airliner, the largest twin-engine commercial jet on the market and a major profit-driver for Boeing -- carriers around the globe have booked orders totaling more than $100 billion. But a dispute with its machinists' union over future pension benefits and other issues briefly threatened Boeing's ability to competitively manufacture the 777X at its primary Seattle-area manufacturing hub.

    Last Friday, that issue was resolved when a key union vote broke in Boeing's favor, ensuring that manufacturing of both the 777X and the 737 MAX -- a more efficient revamp of Boeing's legacy single-aisle passenger jet -- will remain in Washington state. The deal ensures not only that Boeing can develop the core of its new commercial jet lineup at its most experienced and tested manufacturing facilities, but it vastly reduces the risk of labor disruptions as Boeing looks to deliver the 737 MAX and 777X in 2017 and 2020, respectively. That's reassuring to customers (who now have another option in the Airbus A350-1000, slated to enter service in 2017) and to shareholders; riding a successful labor battle, a strong order book, and a favorable aerospace marketplace into 2014, Boeing looks pretty invincible.

    还有哪家公司能像波音（Boeing）一样能在2014年拥有这么好的开局？新年的第一周，这家位于芝加哥的飞机制造商在与工会的交锋中获得了一场关键胜利，2013年完成的交货量也超过了其欧洲竞争对手，而且，它还宣布拿下了印度廉价航空公司SpiceJet价值44亿美元的订单。后者向波音订购了42架更节能的新型737 MAX客机。公允地讲，波音称至少其中一部分订单将计入2013年的订单数，作为波音目前未完成的订单。但无论如何，这都算是很不错的新年开局。

    弗吉尼亚州费尔法克斯航空业分析公司Teal Group副总裁、分析师理查德•埃博拉非亚说：“我认为，这是波音公司发展势头极好的四个月。如果你把这种势头只局限在年初，那你就忽视了关键的线索——777X在十一月份的强势发布。所以，这是很了不起的几个月。”

    进入2014年，波音在全球商用航空领域似乎占有格外突出的优势。周一发布的数据显示，波音去年的交货量连续第二年超过了竞争对手空中客车（Airbus），共生产648架飞机，创历史记录（空中客车尚未正式公布最终数据。但有业内消息称，空中客车生产的数量超过625架，但并未达到波音的648架）。波音公司的股票也上涨至52周以来的新高。787梦想客机也度过了初期的成长痛苦期，进入成熟生产阶段。它的新型客机刚刚推出便斩获大批订单。而且埃博拉非亚补充道，推迟强行分段减支（美国政府实行的强制削减政府预算政策——译注），消除了波音公司国防业务所面临的一个严重威胁，让它躲过了一劫。

    这并不是波音公司近期躲过的唯一一次劫难。自十一月份777X上市以来，全球运营商的订单总额已超过1,000亿美元。波音777X是它主要宽体客机波音777的升级版本，效率更高。波音777是目前市场上最大的双引擎商用客机，也是这家公司的主要收入来源。然而，波音与公司机械师联盟就未来退休金福利和其他问题的争议却对波音能否在其西雅图制造中心顺利完成777X的生产构成了一定的威胁。

    上周五，这个问题终于得到解决。工会的一次关键投票对波音公司有利，保证了777X和737 MAX的生产继续在华盛顿州完成。波音737 MAX在传统单通道客机基础上进行了升级，更加高效。此次交易不仅可以保证波音利用其经验最丰富、最成熟的生产设施开发新型商用客机，也可以减少未来因劳资问题影响到737 MAX和777X交付的风险（两者分别于2017年和2020年交货）。而且，这个消息也可以让消费者（现在他们有另外一种选择——空中客车的A350 - 1000，预计于2017年投入使用）和股东安心。赢得与工会组织的一次交锋，强劲的订单，以及在2014年有利的航空市场地位，这一切都预示着波音会在新的一年所向披靡。

    "There's a confluence of good news right now," says Brian Foley, President of Brian Foley Associates and aviation industry analyst. "But we can't get blinded by the extreme short term. From an investor's standpoint things do seem to be coming together very well, but it's a cyclical business."

    While Boeing remains the world's biggest planemaker for another year, Airbus very likely booked more new orders last year (again, Airbus doesn't release official numbers until next week, but industry sources are confident), putting Boeing's European rival on firm competitive ground in the long term. And though Boeing's commercial side is thriving, its defense business is taking something of a drumming, at least in terms of exports. Its C-17 military transport production line is slated to close by 2015. A potential $7 billion sale of 60 F-15s to South Korea was scrapped last year as Seoul opted to purchase Lockheed Martin's new F-35 Lightning. Around the same time, Boeing lost a $4.5 billion deal to supply Brazil with F/A-18s when the government there decided to buy Swedish Saab jets instead.

    Its commercial side could be looking at something of a slow period as well, analysts say. While Boeing's new generations of commercial jets are selling well, they won't deliver for several years. In the meantime, the existence of a new generation of aircraft often hurts the sales of existing generations, as airlines move to update their fleets to the latest and greatest. In a research report published by Oppenheimer in November, analysts Yair Reiner and William Lee note that "the launch of the 777X appears to have left the 777 program, which accounts for an estimated quarter of BA's total profit, in the lurch. The 777 needs to hold down the fort for 6-7 years until the 777X enters into service, but currently has only 3.3 years of backlog."

    And then, Teal Group's Aboulafia notes, there's the handling of the recent labor dispute, in which some critics argue Boeing strong-armed its workers into taking a raw deal by threatening to move production (and jobs) to another state at great expense rather than give up ground on pension benefits. "They've been very aggressive with suppliers and they've been very aggressive with labor, and that can come back to haunt you, that can be damaging." Aboulafia says. "This was a very aggressive labor contract, and they got what they wanted by 51%. They also got a disgruntled workforce."

    So where does all that really leave Boeing (and its investors) for the balance of 2014?

    "I'd suspect that 2014 will continue to see Boeing stock climb, and that could continue right into next year as well when they deliver some of these aircraft and record cash when that happens," Foley says. Pressure from both Airbus and from small-but-growing players like Brazil's Embraer and Canada's Bombardier Aerospace will erode Boeing's (and Airbus's) market share in the long-term. And while Boeing's 2013 order book might not be quite as full as Airbus's, that won't impact either company's bottom line significantly until those aircraft are delivered.

    航空业咨询公司Brian Foley Associates总裁、行业分析师布莱恩•弗雷说：“目前有很多好消息，但我们不能被这些短期内的利好消息蒙住双眼。从投资者的立场来看，所有事情似乎确实在向好的方向发展，但别忘了这是一个周期性的行业。”

    虽然波音又一年稳坐全球最大飞机制造商的交椅，但空中客车在去年很有可能获得了更多订单（别忘了，空中客车到上周仍然没有公布官方数字，但业内消息人士却非常有信心），这将使波音的欧洲竞争对手建立起可靠的长期竞争优势。而且，虽然波音的商用业务一派繁荣，但它的国防业务却很让人头痛，至少在出口方面确实如此。它的C-17军用运输机生产线计划在2015年关闭。去年，由于韩国选择了洛克希德马丁公司（Lockheed Martin）的新型F-35“闪电”战斗机，使得波音失去了60架F-15的订单，损失了约70亿美元。此外，波音也丢掉了巴西政府价值45亿美元的订单。最终巴西政府决定采购瑞典萨博公司（Saab）的喷气式战斗机，而没有选择波音的F/A-18。

    分析师指出，在商业领域，波音公司也面临着发展缓慢的局面。虽然新一代商用飞机销售态势良好，但这些飞机的交付还需要几年时间。与此同时，当航空公司不断更新产品，力图做到最新最好时，新机型的出现总会导致现有机型销量滑坡。在奥本海默公司（Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.）11月份发布的一份研究报告中，分析师耶尔•雷纳尔和威廉•李指出，“波音公司近四分之一的总利润来自777客机。然而，777X机型的发布似乎使777客机陷入了困境。777X机型开始服役还需要再过6-7年，在此之前777机型不会停止生产。然而，777客机目前只有3.3年的订单储备。”

    然后是最近的劳工纠纷处理问题，蒂尔集团（Teal Group）的阿布拉菲亚说。批评家们认为，波音公司是通过暴力强权，逼迫工人们接受了不公正的待遇。波音公司威胁工人们，宁可花费重金将生产厂址（连同工作机会）一起迁到另外一个州，也不愿在退休金福利问题上作出让步。“他们对供应商一直采取强硬态度，对待工人也是如此。这种处理方式最终会反过来损害公司利益，而一旦发生，破坏性将是巨大的”，阿布拉菲亚说。“波音公司的劳工合同相当过分，51%的条款都是有利于公司的。这么做的结果是，公司的员工非常不满。”

    所有这些情况对波音公司（及其投资者）2014年的收支平衡到底会造成什么影响呢？

    弗利说：“我倒认为，波音公司的股价在2014年会继续上涨；如果公司能交付部分飞机，同时借此取得破纪录的现金流量，它股票的上涨趋势会一直延续到2015年。”来自空中客车以及其它发展中的小型公司——如巴西航空工业公司（Embraer）和加拿大庞巴迪宇航公司（Bombardier Aerospace）——的竞争，在长期看来也会造成波音公司（和空中客车）市场份额的下降。波音公司2013年的订单量虽然没有空中客车那么充足，但在这些订单真正交付之前，它们不会对任何一个公司的净收益产生显著影响。

    It's in the medium and long term where Boeing may find itself facing serious headwinds. Just as Oppenheimer's Reiner and Lee are concerned with the 777's ability to continue selling until the 777X is delivered, Foley worries about 737 sales in the nearer term. "There's a question of whether they'll be able to sell enough of their existing 737s while waiting for the new iteration to come online," he says. "The first 737 MAX enters service in 2017, and there's three years between now and then."

    For investors looking to gauge the strength of Boeing and the larger aircraft manufacturing sector going forward, it might be wiser to take a step back from the industry and look at it through a wider lens, Aboulafia says. One week of good headlines, no matter how good, won't carry Boeing for an entire year. And bullish though he is on Boeing's past few months, the future isn't dictated solely by order backlogs, production numbers, and labor contracts.

    "You've got continued strong commercial jet numbers largely because you've got an almost impossibly good combination of events in the macro environment: very low interest rates and oil prices that are kind of in a sweet spot -- not to so high that airlines can't make money and not so low that older jets are more attractive than newer ones," he says. "But you've got a fundamental problem for Boeing's strongest and most profitable unit, which is: What if anything changes?"  

    波音公司可能会在中期和长期阶段面临严重困难。正如奥本海默公司的耶尔•雷纳尔和威廉•李担心777客机在777X交付之前会卖不出去一样，布莱恩•弗利担心的是737客机在短期内的销量。“问题在于，在等待新机型上线之前，波音公司能否卖出足够数量的现有737机型，”弗利说。“第一架737 MAX要到2017年才开始服役，而从现在到2017年还有三年的时间。”

    阿布拉菲亚说，投资者如果想要衡量波音公司的实力，或探询飞机制造业的前景，明智的做法可能是退后一步，从更宏观的层面来观察这个行业。一个星期的利好消息，不管好到何种程度，都无法支撑波音公司一年的发展。而且，虽然过去几个月中，波音公司的股价一直在上涨，但未来的发展并不仅仅取决于订单储备、生产数量和劳工合同。

    “波音公司商用飞机的产量和订单量之所以高涨，很大程度上是因为有着令人难以置信的宏观有利条件：极低的利率和油价。这两者的水平都恰到好处——如果太高，航空公司就会挣不到钱；如果太低，会让老式飞机比新式飞机更有吸引力”，阿布拉菲亚说。“然而，对于波音公司最强大、最赚钱的飞机制造部门来说，还有一个根本性的问题。万一客观条件发生了变化怎么办？”（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/朱毓芬/汪皓