在为了避税移居波多黎各之前，亿万富翁约翰•保尔森这些人理应三思。最近，这个加勒比岛国开出了诱人的税收政策，希望吸引美国富人。这些政策看上去不错，但谁也不能保证波多黎各政府长期一定能兑现承诺。

    随着美国本土的社会经济问题日益加深，一些追求安全和稳定的富裕人群已心生去意。但在波多黎各，近几年犯罪率屡创新高，并开始向首都圣胡安的富人区扩散。如今，当地的暴力犯罪和经济低迷都无好转迹象。这样的现实，与波多黎各政府竭力描绘的金融天堂有着天壤之别。

    金融危机已迫使全球政府开始考虑新的创收方式。近几年美国频频动用的是财政刺激政策和印钞机。现在，美国政府正在削减开支和增加税收，导致民怨沸腾，特别是美国纳税人中最富有的2%人群，这些人在加税过程中首当其冲。。

    今年美国收入最高的2%人群承担的长期资本利得和股利税率已从十多年来的15%调高到了近24%。富人们的联邦所得税税率也从35%升到了39.6%。这让美国很多高收入者非常不满，特别是像约翰•保尔森这样的大投资者。据报道，这位曾和很多富人下注约150亿美元、赌美国房地产泡沫会破裂的对冲基金经理正在考虑移民波多黎各，以免支付巨额税单。

    为什么是波多黎各？这个岛国最近通过了一部法律，准许新居民的资本利得税税率以及来自当地业务的所得税税率为零。零税率仅适用于其成为波多黎各居民后进行的投资利得和收益，政策有效期至2035年底。在获得居民身份前的收益和利得，比如一只尚未出售的股票的账面利得，仍需按波多黎各通行的10%资本利得税纳税。如果在十年后出售投资，但仍在2035年底前的政策有效期内，税率可降至5%。

    吸引保尔森的可能是藉此可转移历史投资收益。他显然已经将很多赚的钱重新投入了自己的基金，因此他的大部分财富都没有纳过税。自美国楼市危机以来，他的投资表现不是很出色，但仍有几十亿美元放在基金中，这些钱现在拿不出来，除非向山姆大叔支付一笔巨额税单。

    为了省下几十亿美元，保尔森可能会南下前往波多黎各。成为波多黎各居民，省下大笔税费，填写一份简单的表格，每个日历年度在这个岛国至少居住183天。不像其他的避税计划，保尔森及其家人不一定要放弃美国公民身份，才能享受这一特殊的税收优惠政策，这得益于波多黎各和美国政府独特的税收安排。

    John Paulson and other plutocrats should think twice before moving to Puerto Rico in search of a tax break. While the Caribbean Island's recent push to lure wealthy individuals from the U.S. mainland seems like a great deal, there is no guarantee that the Puerto Rican government will be able to make good on their long-term promises.

    The U.S. territory has a bevy of social and economic problems that appear to be getting worse by the day, making it an inhospitable place for a wealthy individual seeking safety and stability. Crime broke through record highs in the last few years and has started to spill into the wealthy neighborhoods of San Juan, the capital. The violence and economic malaise show little sign of abating. It's a long way from the financial paradise the Puerto Rican government is trying so hard to portray it as.

    The financial crisis has forced governments around the world to think of new and creative ways to generate and retain income. In the U.S., fiscal stimulus and money printing was the name of the game for the first few years. Now the government is slashing spending and raising taxes, much to the chagrin of just about everybody, but especially to the top 2% of U.S. taxpayers who arebearing the brunt of the tax hikes.

    Indeed, the tax rate on long-term capital gains and dividends for the top 2% of earners jumped this year from 15%, where it had been for over a decade, to just under 24%. The wealthy also saw a boost in federal income taxes from 35% to 39.6%. This has made a lot of America's top earners very upset, especially for big-time investors, like John Paulson. The hedge fund manager who made an estimated $15 billion betting against the housing bubble, along with a number of rich investors, is reportedly looking to move to Puerto Rico to avoid getting stuck with a high tax bill.

    Why Puerto Rico? Well, the island recently passed a law allowing new residents to pay zero tax on capital gains and zero tax on income derived from local businesses. This rate applies only to income and gains derived from investments made after the person has become a resident of the island and will last through the end of 2035. Income and gains that accrued before residency was established, but have yet to be taxed, such as paper gains made in a stock that has yet to be sold, will be subject to Puerto Rico's normal 10% capital gains rate. For investments sold after 10 years, but before the end of 2035, the rate drops to 5%.

    Being able to move investment earnings made in the past is probably what grabbed Paulson's attention. He has apparently reinvested much of his winnings back into his fund, so he has not paid taxes on the bulk of his wealth. His investment performance hasn't been so hot since the housing crisis, but he still has billions of dollars left floating in his fund that he can't take out without receiving a big tax bill from Uncle Sam.

    So to save a few billion dollars, Paulson could make the move down south to Puerto Rico. Becoming a resident of Puerto Rico and receiving this tax benefit involves filling out a simple form and living on the island for at least 183 days per calendar year. But unlike other tax avoidance schemes, Paulson and his family don't have to renounce their U.S. citizenship to get the special tax break given Puerto Rico's unique tax arrangement with the U.S.

    每年必须在波多黎各住上半年，这样的安排也不算太糟。但对于百万富翁，甚至像保尔森这样的亿万富翁，这样做可能不一定划算。波多黎各的政治、经济和社会状况极不稳定，可能不是最佳的避税地选择。

    政治上波多黎各的不稳定状态，意味着新的投资法律可能会被削弱或撤销。为什么过去波多黎各没尝试过以邻为壑、激起华盛顿不满的税收大战？原因有一个。波多黎各每年从美国拿到的援助和补贴达到约220亿美元，这是一大笔钱，相当于该国GDP的1/4左右。如果它钓到了像保尔森这样的亿万富翁大鱼，有些援助和补贴可能会被砍掉。

    “波多黎各的情况可能会引发关注，如何根据美国税例处理美国属地问题，”艾奥瓦州共和党参议员查克•格拉斯利告诉《财富》杂志(Fortune)，他也是税收联合委员会(Joint Committee on Taxation)的成员。“如果美国国会和总统展开大幅税收改革，需要协调美国属地间的税例。或者，波多黎各维持独立的税收体系，但前提可能是要接受一些防止避税条例。”

    不只是共和党人盯着波多黎各。蒙大拿州民主党参议员、参议院财政委员会(Senate Finance Committee)主席麦克斯•鲍克斯的一位发言人表示，波多黎各问题已引起参议员的注意，正在考虑将这一问题纳入广泛税收改革的一部分。

    美国政府可能通过扣留资金，迫使波多黎各协调税例，或者只要将波多黎各变成美国第51个州，一切就顺理成章了。这或许听上去有点疯狂，但这种可能性真的存在。去年11月，波多黎各一场无约束力的全民公决中，有压倒性票数赞成波多黎各作为一个州加入美国。美国总统奥巴马也表示，他支持波多黎各尽快加入美联邦。美国国会需要对其加入进行投票，理论上这随时都可以进行。唯一阻碍波多黎各的因素是党派政治。共和党人并不热衷于批准一个可能强化民主党势力的州加入美联邦。但随着共和党支持年轻的西班牙裔参议员马可•卢比欧——卢比欧来自波多黎各人众多的佛罗里达州，2016年美国大选时共和党人可能会将波多黎各视为一项资本，而不是障碍。

    因此，这项新税法可能最终变成无效。如果保尔森动作快，大概可以赶在这前面。但他和家人依然需要每年至少在波多黎各住上183天，而美国政府肯定会进行广泛的调查，确认其遵守相关条例。圣胡安的生活和购物可能不像纽约那样丰富多彩。谈到娱乐选择，圣胡安和这个岛国的其他地方不乏各种花哨的选择，但缺乏高质量的选择。波多黎各的海滩很漂亮，但对于一个像保尔森这样的城市男人而言，这个岛国最终可能变成一个天堂监狱。

    波多黎各也不全然都是海滩和古城堡。保尔森必须生活在为经济和社会担忧的波多黎各人中。45%的波多黎各人生活在贫困线之下。美国政府削减制造补贴以及这场金融危机，已给这个岛国的经济造成了严重冲击。目前波多黎各的失业率处于15%左右的高位，差不多是美国的两倍，迫使很多波多黎各人纷纷逃离这个岛国，尤其是受过良好教育的精英阶层。

    There are worse fates than to be forced to live in Puerto Rico for half the year. But for millionaires and even billionaires, like Paulson, it may not be worth it. The political, economic, and social conditions down in Puerto Rico are extremely unstable and may not be the best bet in the tax game.

    Politically, Puerto Rico is in a state of flux, which means its new investment law could be countered or revoked. There is a reason why Puerto Rico hasn't tried this beggar-thy-neighbor kind of tax war with the U.S. in the past -- it makes Washington angry. That's a big deal given that Puerto Rico receives around $22 billion from the U.S. every year in the form of aid and subsidies. That makes up around a quarter of the island's GDP. It could see some of that aid sliced off if it nails some big billionaire fish like Paulson.

    "The situation with Puerto Rico might draw more attention to how U.S. territories are treated under U.S. tax laws," Sen. Chuck Grassley, the Republican from Iowa and member of the Joint Committee on Taxation, told Fortune. "Harmonizing the tax rules of the territories could be something to look at if Congress and the President undertake comprehensive tax reform. Or if Puerto Rico maintains a separate tax system, which could be conditioned on accepting certain rules to prevent tax evasion."

    It is not just Republicans who have their eye on Puerto Rico. A spokesman for Senator Max Baucus, the Democrat from Montana and Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, said that the Puerto Rico issue is on the Senator's radar, and he is looking into it as part of his efforts in comprehensive tax reform.

    The U.S. government could bully Puerto Rico to harmonize its tax code by withholding funds, or it could do it by default by just making it the 51st state. While that might sound crazy, it is actually a real possibility. Puerto Ricans voted overwhelmingly to join the U.S. as a state in a non-binding referendum last November. President Obama says he supports the admission of Puerto Rico into the union as soon as possible. Congress needs to vote on its admission, which could theoretically occur at any time. The only thing standing in Puerto Rico's way is partisan politics. Republicans aren't too keen to allow in a new state that would be solidly Democratic blue. But with the party championing Marco Rubio, the young Hispanic Republican Senator from Florida -- home to many Puerto Ricans, Republicans may come to see Puerto Rico as an asset and not a liberal liability in the 2016 election.

    So the new law may eventually become null and void. If Paulson moves fast enough he may slip under the radar. But he would still have to live in Puerto Rico with his family for at least 183 days per year, which will undoubtedly be scrutinized by the U.S. government extensively to make sure he isn't cheating. Life in San Juan isn't as exciting as it is in New York, and the shopping pales in comparison. Indeed, San Juan and the rest of the island are heavy on the kitsch but low on the substance when it comes to entertainment options. The beach is amazing, but eventually, for a city boy like Paulson, the island could come to resemble a sort of paradise prison.

    And Puerto Rico is not all beaches and historic forts. Paulson must live amongst a population under economic and social terror. Forty-five percent of the population lives under the poverty line. The reduction of manufacturing subsidies by the U.S. government combined with the financial crisis has hit the island's economy hard. Unemployment is up around 15%, nearly double that of the U.S., forcing Puerto Ricans to abandon the island in droves, especially the educated elite.

    贫困迫使很多人干起了黑市营生，最突出的就是毒品交易。波多黎各是进入美国市场的一个绝好门户，从这个岛国起飞前往美国本土的航班都被视为国内航班。从哥伦比亚等地方偷运毒品至这个岛国非常容易，使得波多黎各成为了永不停息的毒品战中一个最危险的十字路口。2011年的波多黎各谋杀案创下了历史新高，有1,136人被杀身亡。每10万人里就有31个人被杀，这样的谋杀率是美国的7.5倍，比墨西哥高近25%。

    不只是贩毒者被杀；在入室偷盗抢劫、行凶抢劫和汽车抢劫中，一些普通公民(很多是专业人士)被杀，这些案件与毒品战总是有着渊源。圣胡安高档社区Condado的行凶抢劫案呈现上升，据报道保尔森正在考虑在这里购买一处物业。美国国家公共电台(NPR)最近的一周特别报道中就阐述了此类行凶抢劫案，凸显了这个岛国的治安乱象。《纽约时报》(New York Times)报道了一个案件，2011年夏季一位银行高管在驾驶自己的雷克萨斯(Lexus)车时，颈部中枪三弹。

    两起备受瞩目的谋杀案似乎已将波多黎各推到了边界。第一起是去年11月份的枪击命案，三届拳击冠军海克特•“马楚”•卡马科在一家夜总会门口，坐在自己的车里，遭到不明身份者的袭击。第二起是去年12月份的乔斯•艾里克•高梅兹。广告人高梅兹在遭到四位年轻人的抢劫和殴打后，身上被浇上汽油点燃。这起残忍野蛮的杀害令波多黎各举国震动，因为高梅兹遭到抢劫是在一个被认为“安全”的地区，而且他没有卷入毒品交易。瑞奇•马丁和其他波多黎各名人——他们中已无一人真正住在波多黎各——纷纷在Twitter、Facebook等社交媒体网站中抗议这起谋杀。

    暴力哪里都会有，但波多黎各的高谋杀率很快就会将这些富人们送回美国。波多黎各的新总督亚历桑德罗•加西亚•帕蒂拉上任后的第一道命令，就是要求国民警卫队在一些重要地区展开巡逻。加强安保，可能带来一些改变。虽然派遣军队进行日常巡逻这样的做法通常会受到批评，但由于波多黎各警方的无能，这可能是维持社会秩序所必须的。政治风险和高犯罪率，这样的图景对于百万富翁们似乎绝无吸引力，更别提像保尔森这样的亿万富翁了。（财富中文网）

    译者：早稻米

    The poverty has forced many into the underground economy, most notably the drug trade. Puerto Rico is an excellent gateway into the U.S. market as planes taking off from the island bound for the mainland are considered domestic flights. Smuggling drugs on the island from places like Colombia has become child's play, making Puerto Rico one of the deadliest crossroads in the never-ending War on Drugs. Murders on the island hit an all-time high in 2011 with 1,136 people killed. The murder rate of 31 per 100,000 people is six-and-a-half times higher than that of the U.S. and nearly a quarter more than that of Mexico.

    It is not just drug smugglers getting killed; ordinary citizens, many of them professionals, have been killed in a rash of fatal burglaries, home invasions, muggings, and car jackings, which have their roots in the drug war. Muggings in the posh Condado neighborhood in San Juan, the area Paulson is reportedly looking into buying a property, are on the rise. NPR recently profiled one such mugging in a week-long special highlighting the troubles plaguing the island. The New York Times told the story of a banking executive who was shot three times in the neck while driving his Lexus in the summer of 2011.

    A couple of high-profile murders seem to have pushed Puerto Rico over the edge. The first was the shooting death in November of three-time boxing champion Hector "Macho" Camacho while he was sitting in his car outside of a nightclub by unknown assailants. The second was the death of José Enrique Gomez in December. Gomez, a publicist, was robbed, beaten and doused with gasoline, and then set alight by four young men. The brutal and senseless killing shocked the nation because Gomez was robbed in a supposedly "safe" area and was not involved in the drug trade. Ricky Martin and other Puerto Rican celebrities -- none of whom actually live in Puerto Rico anymore -- took to social media outlets like Twitter and Facebook to protest the murder.

    Crime happens everywhere, but the high murder rate in Puerto Rico is enough to send the toughest plutocrat back to the U.S. in short order. The new governor of Puerto Rico, Alejandro Garcia Padilla, activated the National Guard to patrol key areas of the country as his first order. The stepped-up presence could make a difference. While sending in the troops is usually frowned upon for routine patrols, it may be necessary to retain order given the ineptitude of the Puerto Rico police force. But the political risks combined with the crime seem to paint a picture that isn't ready to bring in millionaires, let alone billionaires like Paulson.