交易员们有时会私底下提到对金融市场真相的探究——他们深信，在金融市场深处隐藏着一个甜区，只要加以合理利用必定能够赚钱。

    现年38岁的亿万富翁约翰•阿诺德是一名天然气交易员，并被许多投资者视为“掌握了真相的人”，然而，他在本周向投资者宣布了退休计划。阿诺德是能源市场上著名的“法师”，2007年，他入选福布斯美国400富豪榜单，成为美国最年轻的亿万富翁，从此便名声大振。虽然阿诺德本人对所谓的金融真相（如果确实存在）嗤之以鼻，但是，在同行眼中，他确实掌握了这些秘诀。

    “我从未见过任何行业中的任何人能像阿诺德那样，获得过这么多的赞誉，”曾与阿诺德竞争、并败给阿诺德的对冲基金的一位高管表示。“拥有私人飞机的CEO们都崇拜他。当他走进房间，头发花白的交易员像12岁少女追捧贾斯汀•比伯那样追捧他。通常情况下，像他这样成功的人都树敌颇多，但是我却没有发现他有什么仇人——这在这个行业里确实有些不可思议。要知道，人们当面都会赞扬保尔森或索罗斯，却在背后悄悄议论他们。但是，人们对约翰•阿诺德的议论只有一个，那就是——他真是个不折不扣的天才。”

    阿诺德的故事可谓人尽皆知：他曾是安然公司（Enron）的明星交易员，从美国历史上最臭名昭著的企业破产案中东山再起；2002年，在几名早期投资者的帮助下，他用800万美元的奖金在休斯顿成立了自己的对冲基金。许多人都怀有戒心，但是阿诺德不辞辛劳，使自己摆脱了安然公司的恶名，并在短短几年内获得了史无前例的巨额利润和巨大的声誉。

    2006年，阿诺德的基金Centaurus Advisors实现了317%的净收益率。这支基金达到巅峰时，资金规模约为50亿美元，其中大部分资金都属于阿诺德本人。Centaurus的收费标准高于平均标准（3%的管理费和30%的收益），开盘后不久便向新投资者关闭了交易，但是，已经选择了这支基金的许多投资者，就像是好不容易挤进了VIP房包间，拼命保住自己的会员资格，担心一不留神就被赶出去。

    虽然他拥有无可匹敌的财富和公认的求胜心理，但是，很少有人知道阿诺德卑微的出身和低调的人格。他的数字运算能力和交易能力非常神奇，而他的幕后故事是：出身于中产阶级家庭，极度羞涩，17岁时父亲便离开了人世。他是家中最小的孩子，曾居住在匹兹堡和达拉斯，父母职业分别为律师和会计师。他聪慧过人，酷爱运动，在范德堡大学（Vanderbilt University）就读期间给大学教授留下了深刻的印象。三年后大学毕业时，他获得了数学和经济学双学位。但即便是与他最亲近的人也对他有所防范，如安然公司之前的同事和他的哥哥马修（同样曾是安然公司的交易员）。另外，他的母亲是Centaurus的会计师。

    Traders, when not speaking on the record, will sometimes allude to the search for a financial Truth -- a belief that somewhere buried deep within the market there is a sweet spot that, if properly tapped, can unleash a fortune.

    John Arnold, the 38-year-old billionaire gas trader who told his investors this week he planned to retire, was seen by many as the bearer of such a Truth. The celebrated necromancer of the energy market rose to fame in 2007, when he gate-crashed the Forbes 400 Richest Americans list as the youngest billionaire in the nation. And while it is likely that Arnold would scoff at the notion of a financial Truth, if there ever was one, it did appear to his trading brethren he was in possession of it.

    "I have never seen such universal adulation of anyone in an industry the way I've seen people adulate him," says an executive from a hedge fund that competed – and lost – against Arnold. "CEOs with their own private jets worship him. Grizzled traders act like 12-year old girls around Justin Bieber when he walks into the room. Someone this successful always has haters, but I've never seen him having any – and that is amazing for this industry. You know, people will extol Paulson or Soros and then whisper about them behind their backs. But the only thing they whisper about John Arnold is that he's a freakin' genius."

    The official story of Arnold is well-known: a star Enron trader who rose from the ashes of one of the most scandalous corporate bankruptcies in American history, launching his own Houston hedge fund in 2002 with the help of an $8 million bonus and a handful of early investors. While many were wary, Arnold took pains to distance himself from Enron's blackened legacy and, within a few short years, extracted frothy profits, propelling himself to unprecedented fame and celebrity. (See this 2009 Fortune story The wunderkind gas trader)

    In 2006, Arnold minted returns of 317%, net of fees, at his fund, Centaurus Advisors. At the fund's zenith, it held around $5 billion, much of it Arnold's own capital. Centaurus, which charged higher-than-average fees (3% for management and 30% of earnings) closed to new investors shortly after opening, but those who made the cut guarded their memberships fiercely, acting as though they barely squeaked into a VIP room from which they could easily be jettisoned.

    What is less known about Arnold is his humble background and low-key personality, despite his formidable wealth and what all agree is a diehard competitive streak. While his number-crunching capabilities and trading prowess are legendary, his backstory is one of a painfully shy, middle-class kid who lost his father at the age of 17. The youngest of his family, he grew up in Pittsburgh and then Dallas, reared by a lawyer father and accountant mother. He was a sharp student who impressed his professors at Vanderbilt University, where he graduated with a degree in both math and economics in three years, and loved to play sports. But those closest to him are very protective of him, including ex-colleagues at Enron and his older brother, Matthew, who also traded at Enron. Even at Centaurus, his mother worked as an accountant.

    阿诺德在Centaurus公司管理着一个松散的协会组织，其中大多数是男性交易员，这些人喜爱虚张声势，偶尔还会违反纪律。许多员工都是曾在安然共事的同事或竞争对手公司的员工。作为公司的掌舵者，他被尊为王中之王。

    甚至就连曾经调查过阿诺德在安然公司活动的政府监管人员也对他推崇有加。美国的能源监管部门商品期货交易委员会（the Commodity Futures Trading Commission，CFTC）曾在安然公司破产后调查阿诺德和其他交易员。然而，这个机构竟然在2009年拜访阿诺德，询问该委员会应该如何改进工作方式。七年前，阿诺德曾是CFTC的调查的目标，而七年后，他却成了不容置疑的权威，连CFTC都要向他征求意见，这恰恰证明了能源市场圈子小的特点。

    那么，阿诺德这样的天才交易员为什么选择急流勇退呢？这个决定与交易行业的竞争形势密不可分。的确，阿诺德热衷于竞争和取胜，但近年来对冲基金的回报率不断下降，开始迫使他重新考虑这场游戏的性质。阿诺德赖以名利双收的天然气市场如今已经今非昔比；另外，水力压裂法的出现使开采公司能够轻松地获得难以数计的天然气。在可预见的未来，天然气的供应将非常充裕。如此一来，天然气价格疯涨、引无数交易员竞折腰的局面将成为历史。它对美国来说是好消息，但是对阿诺德这些倚重天然气驱动公司利润引擎的对冲基金经理来说却并非福音。

    如果金融市场的确存在什么真相，这个真相或许其实是这样的：市场游戏难度增加时，交易员们就不愿意再玩了。

    但是，阿诺德绝不会就此销声匿迹。阿诺德是一家之长，这个小家还在添丁加口。但他已经开始热心慈善。2010年，他和妻子劳拉响应比尔•盖茨夫妇和沃伦•巴菲特的倡议签署财产捐赠声明，将捐出自己的大部分财产。

    译者：乔树静/汪皓

    At his fund, Arnold presided over a loose federation of mostly male traders known for their swashbuckling lifestyles and occasionally unruly behavior. Many of his hires were former colleagues from Enron or competing firms. In his role as head of the firm, he was revered as a king among kings. (See Arnold on Fortune's 40 under 40 list last year)

    Even the government regulators who once investigated his activities at Enron seem to hold him in high regard. In 2009, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.S. energy watchdog that once went after Arnold and other traders at Enron in the wake of the company's spectacular demise, called him to testify on how the agency might better do its job. It is truly a testament to the small-world nature of the energy market that a trader once targeted by the CFTC would, seven years later, be sought out for his opinion as not just an equal, but an undisputed authority.

    So why would a trader of Arnold's caliber ever retire? Well, it has a lot to do with that competitive streak. Since Arnold's passion is competing – and winning – recent years of diminished hedge fund returns have forced him to rethink the nature of the game. The natural gas market, his bread and butter, isn't what it used to be, and the advent of hydraulic fracturing has placed hundreds of trillions of cubic feet of gas within easy reach of drillers. With supply looking plentiful for the foreseeable future, gas is no longer prone to the kinds of gravity-defying price spikes that once drew traders to it. This is good news for America, but not so great for hedge fund managers, like Arnold, who relied heavily on gas to fire their profit engine.

    If there is one financial Truth, maybe it is that when markets are not longer easy to game, traders will no longer want to play.

    But don't bet you've heard the last of Arnold. The father of a growing family who signed the Bill and Melinda Gates and Warren Buffett giving pledge to donate a majority of his wealth with his wife, Laura, in 2010, has already taken a keen interest in philanthropy.