法国总统大选着实让华尔街和国际市场坐立不安，这种担心并不是没有道理的。决定社会党领袖弗朗索瓦•奥朗德能否登上法国头把交椅的第二轮投票于本周日举行，这一选举也为国际经济带来了一丝紧张气氛，然而眼下，国际经济急需一位意志坚定的领袖。

    但是除了紧张气氛之外，市场对于即将进驻爱丽舍宫的新一届社会党政府感到担忧，我们有充分的理由表明这种担忧并不是多余的。如果奥朗德当选，他必然将在法国和欧洲大陆推行更为严格的金融法规，而且与前任不同的是，他很有可能会贯彻到底。这一点将会对华尔街和伦敦金融城造成影响，最终限制它们在欧洲大陆、甚至有可能在本国的业务模式。而且如果推行力度过大，这些法规可能会扰乱法国与欧洲央行（the European Central Bank）之间精心策划的有关防止欧元崩溃的协议，从而引发一系列连锁反应，在世界范围内导致严重的经济后果。

    上周三法国现任总统尼古拉斯•萨科齐和他的挑战者弗朗索瓦•奥朗德之间进行了一场万众瞩目的电视辩论，结果比预计的更为不堪。辩论持续了长达三个多小时，两位候选人你来我往，谈论了方方面面的问题，从核政策一直谈到谁对伊斯兰的态度最为强硬，其间不乏相互之间的谩骂和羞辱。尽管两人在辩论中并没有提出什么惊天动地的观点，但是辩论的确巩固了奥朗德的领先优势。

    目前，法国经济局势一片混乱，也难怪选民们希望更换领导人。尽管在意识形态上存在差异，但由于金融危机不断深化，全欧的选民和国会都不约而同地将现任政府赶下了台。德国是唯一一个特例，但仅仅是因为大选按计划要等到明年才开始。包括西班牙、爱尔兰、意大利、英国、葡萄牙、希腊还有最近的荷兰在内，多国政府都在过去一两年之内相继倒台。

    在欧元区，领导层的变动基本上一向被市场视为利好消息——因为新的领导层往往力求变革，以帮助解决看似无休无止的欧洲主权债务危机。因此法国领导层的变动也会带来同样的效果，是吗？

    答案是否定的。奥朗德曾经说过，一旦掌权，他将彻底改革，而且不会追随德国或者其他国家的脚步。这也就意味着一切都可能成为改革目标，包括萨科齐与欧盟成员为应对主权债务危机精心策划的协议。他对华尔街和伦敦并不感兴趣，甚至曾公开批评它们是导致金融危机的元凶。奥朗德1月份曾经声称：“我的敌人不是其他竞选人，它并不是人，也没有面孔，它就是金融界。”很明显，他手中挥舞着板斧，说不定他已经拥有了斩断自己双手的觉悟。

    France's presidential election has Wall Street and the global markets worried – and for good reason. The election of Socialist party leader Francois Hollande to France's top job this coming Sunday would introduce an air of instability into the global economy at a time when it desperately needs a steady hand.

    But beyond the instability, there are concrete reasons why the markets should be concerned with a new Socialist-led government in the Elysee Palace. If elected, Hollande will inevitably push for tougher financial regulation in France and on the continent, and unlike his predecessor, will most likely see them through. This will invariably impact and eventually restrict the way Wall Street and the City of London does business, both on the continent and, quite possibly, at home. And if he pushes hard enough, he could disturb the carefully crafted agreement with the European Central Bank that is keeping the euro on life support, setting off a chain of events that could have dire worldwide economic consequences.

    Wednesday's much hyped television debate between incumbent President Nicholas Sarkozy and his challenger, Francois Hollande, was nastier than expected. The candidates barked insults and spoke over one another for over three hours on everything from nuclear policy to who would be the toughest on Islam. While the debate did not provide any earth-shattering revelations from either man, it did solidify Hollande's commanding lead over Sarkozy.

    It is no surprise French voters would be looking for a change in leadership given all the economic turmoil in the country. Voters and parliaments across Europe have pushed incumbent governments out of power, regardless of ideology, as the financial crisis has deepened. Germany is the only exception, but only because its elections are scheduled next year. Governments in Spain, Ireland, Italy, the UK, Portugal, Greece and most recently, the Netherlands, have all fallen in the last year or two.

    In the eurozone, the changes in leadership have been viewed as mostly positive by the markets -- they have brought with them the tough changes needed to help stabilize the seemingly endless European sovereign debt crisis. A change in leadership in France should therefore be viewed the same way, right?

    No. Hollande has said that he would shake things up once he gets in power and would not toe the line with Germany or anyone else. That means anything is on the table, including agreements Sarkozy had carefully worked out with his European counterparts in taming the sovereign debt crisis. In addition, Hollande seems bent on really sticking it to the banks. He is no fan of the City of London and Wall Street and has openly criticized them for the role they played in the financial crisis. "My enemy is not another candidate, it is not a person, it has no face, it is the world of finance," Mr. Hollande said in January. He clearly has an axe to grind, but he may be getting ready to slice off his own hands.

    在他攻击敌人之前，奥朗德有必要在社会政策方面做出一些政绩，这样可能会在其他的欧元区引发波动效应。他表示会提高最低薪资标准，取消原定计划内的支出削减，重新雇用数万名政府职员，并将退休年龄由62岁调回60岁。他还希望增加政府预算来资助大型基础设施项目——所有这些都是为了刺激经济增长。

    为了给这些政策买单，奥朗德打算在法国玩命征税。年收入超过100万欧元的人群所得税税率将由45%上升至惊人的75%。随后他将目标瞄准了银行，将其税赋提高15%。此外，他希望推行金融交易税，它将使法国已然疲软的金融领域雪上加霜。金融交易税将冲击频率较高的贸易，对于一些在法国运营的对冲基金和银行来说，这一主要利润来源将就此消失。该税也将降低法国经纪及中介公司的交易竞争力。

    为了避免金融公司大规模出逃，奥朗德很有可能会游说在全欧范围内推行这一税收政策。尽管英国在过去曾经成功地扼杀了征收交易税的企图，但是奥朗德不会像其前任那样轻易放弃。法国可以通过其他一系列政治问题来迫使英国就范。鉴于奥巴马政府认为大西洋两岸的金融法规和限制应保持一致，因此华尔街将对此保持密切关注。真正令人担心的是，法国的金融交易税有可能最终在全世界范围内得以推行。

    社会党领导下的法国也有可能影响新国际银行业标准的实施，即众所周知的巴塞尔协议Ⅲ（Basel III）。在布鲁塞尔，欧洲财政大臣们目前正在讨论如何联合实施新的法规，并藉此迫使银行在其负债表中保留更多的资金。奥朗德所领导的法国很有可能推高利率，危及欧洲银行的借贷能力。欧洲各国在巴塞尔协议Ⅲ框架下所制定的每一个协议都将对最终成为国际标准的利率产生巨大的影响。华尔街一向偏爱低利率，这样银行就能握有更多的现金用于投资。高利率将进一步制约银行的借贷业务——这不仅不利于银行，也不利于美国经济。

    奥朗德的金融战争可能只会带来更为严格的法规或高利率，但真正令人担心的是他可能不会就此收手。目前维系欧元完整靠的是欧洲央行的廉价资金，但他却在周三的辩论当中对此表达了不满。他讽刺说：“银行以1%的利率从欧洲央行拿贷款，然后以6%的利率放贷。我强烈反对。”

    很多关注这场辩论的人可能都没太在意这句无关紧要的声明，但可能已经为多个欧洲国家敲响了警钟。因为欧洲央行廉价资金的流通是目前维系欧盟不致全面解体的唯一救命稻草。欧洲央行最终印刷的这些钞票廉价地流入了各国银行，而银行得以藉此购买主权债务。这也使得欧洲边缘国家能继续运转下去，从而避免违约以及欧元区的崩溃。它也使得银行有能力向企业和消费者发放更多的贷款，增加他们在经济中的支出。银行所赚取的差价也有利于银行来填补负债表上的巨额漏洞，继而走出危机的阴影。

    Before he goes after his enemy, Hollande will need to make good on some socialist policies, which could have spillover effects on the rest of the eurozone. He says he will raise the minimum wage, cancel scheduled spending cuts, hire back thousands of government workers and roll back the retirement age from 62 to 60. He also wants to increase government spending to sponsor large infrastructure projects - all in a bid to spur economic growth.

    To pay for this, Hollande wants to tax France to death. Anyone making more than a million euros a year will see their tax rate go from 45% to a mind-blowing 75%. He'll then stick it to the banks, raising their taxes by 15%. In addition, he wants to implement a financial transaction tax, which could have dire consequences on France's already weak financial sector. The tax would hurt high frequency trading, wiping out a major profit center for some hedge funds and banks that operate in France. It would also hurt the competitiveness of France's broker-dealers in executing transactions.

    To avoid financial firms from leaving in droves, Hollande will most likely push for the tax to be implemented across the European Union. While the UK has successfully blocked attempts to implement a transaction tax in the past, Hollande isn't likely to give up as easily as his predecessors. The French could back the UK into a corner on a number of other political issues to get its way on this one. Wall Street will be watching closely given the Obama administration's view that financial rules and restrictions should be harmonized on both sides of the Atlantic. The fear is that France's financial transaction tax could eventually go worldwide.

    Socialist France could also impact the implementation of new international banking standards, known as Basel III. In Brussels, European finance ministers are currently discussing how they will collectively implement new rules that will eventually force banks to hold more capital on their balance sheet. A France run by Hollande will most likely push for a higher rate, jeopardizing the lending capacity of European banks. Any agreement made on Basel III by the Europeans will have a big influence on the rate that ends up being the international standard. Wall Street is in favor of a low rate so banks can invest more of its cash. A high rate would further restrict bank lending – hurting not only bank profits, but also the U.S. economy.

    Hollande's war on finance could be limited to tougher regulations or higher taxes, but there is a real fear that he could take it too far. During Wednesday's debate he noted his discontent with the one thing that is holding the euro together– cheap funding from the European Central Bank. He scornfully said, "banks get a loan from ECB at 1% and lend at 6%. I refuse."

    This seemingly innocuous statement went largely unnoticed by many watching the debate, but it probably set off alarm bells in several European capitals. That's because this pass through of cheap funding from the ECB is the only thing keeping Europe from totally falling apart. The money the ECB is essentially printing is being lent to banks on the cheap so they can turn around and buy sovereign debt. This allows European countries on the periphery to continue funding themselves, avoiding default and a eurozone meltdown. It also allows the banks to lend more to businesses and consumers in order to increase spending in the economy. The spread the banks earn helps to fill the massive holes in their balance sheet so that they can recover from the crisis.

    欧洲央行几乎花了两年的时间来克服超级通胀的恐惧，并最终打开了钱袋。如果奥朗德拒绝加入这一与狼共舞的经济交易，最坏的情况就是：意大利、西班牙、希腊甚至德国和法国的银行倒闭，导致全欧元区出现高息借贷和致命的主权违约。欧元可能就此寿终正寝。美国和亚洲购买欧洲金融产品的金融机构也会受到沉重的打击，由此引发的恐慌将使得2008年的金融危机看起来更像是香榭丽舍大街（Champs-Élysées）上的闲庭信步。

    平心而论，出现这种惨烈的结局没有考虑一种可能性，也就是奥朗德可能会在某个时候改变策略。奥朗德在法国国会以游说能力强著称，善于弥合分歧。社会党政客经常在选举活动中通过大肆谴责银行来争取选票，因此奥朗德对金融系统的仇恨说不定只是他用来博取选民欢心的手段。一旦掌权，他有可能会有所收敛。而这显然符合华尔街的愿望。

    译者：翔

    It took almost two years for the ECB to get over its fear of hyperinflation and finally open the spigots. If Hollande refuses to go along with this economic deal with the devil then a worst-case scenario could play out: Bank failures in Italy, Spain and Greece, and even in Germany and France, leading to high yields and crippling sovereign defaults across the eurozone. The euro would be finished. U.S. and Asian financial firms with European exposure would get hit hard, setting off a panic that would make 2008 look like a pleasant stroll along the Champs-Élysées.

    To be fair, this dire scenario precludes the possibility of Hollande, who is known in the French parliament to be a strong consensus builder, from changing tack at some point. Socialist politicians usually ramp up the rhetoric against banks on the campaign trail to pick up votes, so Hollande's hatred of the financial system may just be his way of playing to his base. Once in office, he might actually tone it down. Wall Street certainly hopes he does.