苹果过去三周的股价就像在玩翘翘板，先是涨到644美元，然后跌到555美元，又涨到618美元，然后跌至581美元。投资者可能很想知道，苹果的股价的涨跌是否会有一个下限。

    为了给大家提供一些指导，我们请金融刊物”Bullish Cross”的分析师安迪•扎基更新了他去年为一篇文章配的两幅苹果股价走势图，这两幅图表原载于他去年11月发表的文章《苹果：最被低估的美国大盘股》中。

    右侧的两幅柱状图经更新后反映了苹果公司最新的财务季报，它将苹果公司收益的指数级增长，与按历史市盈率得出的股票价值的稳定下跌进行了对比。

    上方的图表表明，苹果连续12个月的每股收益大约环比上涨一倍（比如从2011年4月的20.98美元上涨至2012年4月的41.04美元）。

    下方图表表明，苹果股票的价值（这里的价值指的是它的市盈率，不要把它与苹果的股价混淆了）从2007年第四季度高达50.98的水平，降到了2012年第二季度12.62的低位。

    这种现象被叫做“压缩”，苹果的投资者一直在抱怨这个问题。他们喜欢把苹果的市盈率与亚马逊（Amazon）进行比较。

    去年苹果的营收入增长速度几乎达到了亚马逊的两倍。但苹果本周的股价还不到每股收益的14.3倍。假如苹果的市盈率可以达到亚马逊的水平（即每股收益的190倍），那么现在苹果的每股价格可能会达到7800美元以上。

    不过把任何股价与亚马逊对比，都只能让你头疼。

    扎基认为，苹果的市盈率能“压缩”到什么水平，看来是有一个极限的。“从苹果最近的历史来看，它的市盈率只有两次下降到了12.6的水平，”他说：“一次是经济危机期间，一次是现在。而且每次它都导致了一轮大规模的重新估值。”  

    Watching Apple's (AAPL) share price see-saw over the past three weeks -- up to $644, down to $555, up to $618, down to $581 -- investors might well wonder whether there's any limit to how high or, more to the point these days, how low the stock can go.

    To set some guidelines, we asked Bullish Cross' Andy Zaky to freshen a pair of charts he posted last November for an article entitled Apple: The Most Undervalued Large-Cap Stock in America.

    The bar graphs at right, updated to reflect the most recent quarterly report, contrast the exponential increase in Apple's earning with the steady decline in the value of its stock as measured by its trailing price-to-earnings ratio (P/E).

    The top chart shows Apple's twelve month trailing (TTM) earnings roughly doubling year-over-year (from $20.98 in April 2011, for example, to $41.04 in April 2012).

    The bottom chart shows its stock's value (its P/E, not to be confused with its stock price) falling from as high as 50.98 in Q4 2007 to as low as 12.62 in Q2 2012.

    This is called "compression," and you hear Apple investors complaining about it all the time. They like to contrast Apple's P/E ratio to Amazon's (AMZN).

    Apple's revenues grew nearly twice as fast as Amazon's last year. But Apple's stock is trading this week at less than 14.3 times earning. If it were trading, as Amazon does, at 190 times earnings, it would selling for more than $7,800 a share.

    But comparing any stock with Amazon buys you nothing but heartache.

    Zaky's point is that there seems to be a limit to how much Apple's P/E can be compressed. "In its recent history, it went to 12.6 only twice," he says. "During the financial crisis and now. And each time it led to a massive reevaluation."    

    扎基指出，有三个因素可以阻止苹果的市盈率继续下跌：

• 定量基金。不管何时苹果的市盈率跌至标普500的平均市盈率（目前为16.42倍）以下，定量基金的电脑都会立即买入，然后苹果股价就会反弹。

• 苹果的现金。苹果有价值1100亿美元的现金和有价证券，分配到股票上就是每股118美元。据扎基估算，按照苹果目前的增长速度，到2016年，这些资产会达到每股460美元。

• 合理性。就最看跌的基金经理也不能忽视苹果的季报。上周苹果公布季报后的股价反弹就显示了这一点。（延伸阅读：《苹果松开弹弓：一天赚入570亿美元》。

    据扎基预测，到今年10月，也就是苹果公布2012年最后一份季报时，它的季度收益将达到每股50.49美元。即便那时它的市盈率只有12.5倍，但那时的股价也将达到每股630美元。如果市盈率上升到15倍，那么届时苹果股价将超过757美元。而且这还不算苹果即将发布新iPhone。

    《Bullish Cross》这本刊物已经被超额认购了，许多人付费去读扎基的博客和每周市场指南。不过这次扎基免费给出了以下建议：

    “苹果股票在中期的两个关键的买入价位是537美元（回撤32.8%）和503美元（回撤50%）。我们相信在537美元的价位上，苹果会给出一个独一无二的买入机会；在503美元的价位上，更是一个千载难逢的买入机会。尽管我们认为苹果股价可能永远也不会跌到503美元，但如果苹果股票真的落到那个价格水平，那就相当于2011年6月的每股310.50美元和2009年3月的每股80美元，（都是千载难逢的买入点。）

    投资者总是喜欢把事情过度复杂化。苹果股价无疑将在2013年1月前冲破750元每股，而且在2013年秋天之前，有可能爬上1000美元大关。

    因此，我们相信眼下最好的做法就是现在就买入，虽说它有可能下降到537美元每股。在苹果股价下跌时，不要理会别人的闲言碎语，用你的明智打败华尔街那帮人。几年之内，苹果将不出一个季度就能卖出1亿台iPhone手机。等到那时，苹果的股价将远远超过1000美元。如果明年苹果股价有超过500美元的上涨空间，谁还在乎损失三五十块呢？别把事情搞得这么复杂。现在就去买入吧。”

    译者：朴成奎

    He cites three factors that keep Apple's P/E from going much lower:

• The quant funds. Whenever Apple's P/E falls below the S&P 500's -- currently 16.42 -- the funds' computers kick in and Apple gets a jump start.

• Apple's cash. Apple's $110 billion in cash and marketable securities works out to $118 a share. At their current rate of growth, Zaky estimates, those holdings will reach $460 a share by 2016.

• Reasonableness. Even the most bearish fund managers can't ignore Apple's quarterly reports, as last week's post-earnings rebound demonstrated. (See The Apple slingshot released: $57 billion in one clock tick.)

    Zaky expects that by October, when Apple issues its final report for fiscal 2012, its quarterly earnings will have reached $50.49 a share. Even at 12.5 times earnings, that's $630 a share. At 15 times earnings, it's over $757. And that's without a new iPhone.

    Bullish Cross has been oversubscribed for some time by members who pay to read Zaky's live blog and weekly market guidance. But he offers this advice for free:

    "The two key levels of support for Apple's stock in the intermediate term are $537 (32.8% retracement) and $503 (50% retracement) a share. We believe Apple presents with a unique buying opportunity at $537 and an extraordinarily rare opportunity at $503 a share. While we don't believe the stock will ever see $503 a share, if Apple does reach that level, it would be the equivalent of $310.50 in June 2011 or $80.00 a share in March 2009.

    Investors tend to overcomplicate things. Apple will undoubtedly see $750 a share by January 2013 and will likely see $1,000 no later than the fall of 2013.

    Thus, we believe the best thing to do is just to go in and buy now, ride any potential drawdown to $537 a share, ignore all of the nonsense you are likely to hear on the way down and beat Wall Street by being smart enough to realize what they often do not. And that is the fact that Apple will inevitably sell 100 million iPhones a quarter within the next few years. When that happens, Apple will be trading far north of $1,000 a share. Who cares about a $30 - $50 drawdown when there is over $500 in upside for the stock over the next year or so. Don't make things so complicated. Just go in and buy."