近几个季度，美国企业界利润大幅攀升，但这种好日子可能来日无多了。周二美股盘后，制造业巨头美国铝业（Alcoa）将率先拉开一季报序幕。分析师们预计标准普尔500指数的总利润将显著放缓，可能预示着市场拐点的到来。去年，标准普尔500指数的每股收益增幅介于8.4%-19.7%之间不等，但今年多重因素可能压制利润。

    为了解哪里利润可能下跌，敬请关注四大指标：

苹果指标

    苹果公司（Apple）或许只是标准普尔500指数的一家成分股公司，但近年来，它对该指数的影响已远超一家公司应有的影响。截至去年年底，标准普尔500指数的总利润较上年增长约6%。如果剔除苹果公司利润增长116%因素，总利润增幅将仅为3%。

    预计一季度标准普尔500指数的总利润将同比下降0.1%。如果没有苹果公司亮丽的季报，结果会更糟。金融数据和软件公司FactSet上周发布的一份报告预计，如果剔除苹果，标准普尔500指数的总利润跌幅将更深，达到1.6%。鉴于苹果公司的盈利能力在科技业影响力日益重大，标准普尔500指数科技公司利润预计将增长3.4%。如果剔除苹果，净利润实际上将下跌4.7%。苹果公司定于4月24日盘后发布季报。

新兴市场

    即便是在美国经济复苏乏力之时，美国一些最大的公司利润却逆势飙升。这主要是因为企业管理者削减了成本，裁减了人员，同时也因为他们将销售转向了印度、中国和巴西等地。

    自从2009年全球经济衰退以来，发展中国家成了全球经济增长的主力，而欧洲、美国则仍在苦苦挣扎，努力从金融危机中谋求复苏。但新兴市场增长正在放缓的迹象可能会损害美国公司的盈利能力。

    以美国最大的电解铝生产商——美国铝业（Alcoa）为例。华尔街预计由于中国、欧洲等关键市场的增长放缓，美国铝业将公布亏损。事实上，分析师们和策略师们将关注这家公司如何应对电解铝库存过剩以及价格下跌问题，但正如商业网站Business Insider指出，他们同样也关注着中国这个全球最大的电解铝消费国的经济前景。

燃料价格

    销售可能强劲，但从运输材料到维持工厂机器运转所需的燃料价格上涨预计将拖累很多大公司的利润。

    今年年初，布伦特原油的平均每周价格为118.86美元，显著高于上年同期的平均106.27美元。

    FactSet的高级盈利分析师约翰•巴特斯预计，标准普尔500指数中有104家公司的一季度销售额将实现良性增长，但净利润会出现下降。剔除银行和其他金融公司，净利润率预计将为8.4%，是2010年第一季度以来最低水平。

    Corporate America has seen profits soar for the past several quarters, but the party may not last much longer. After markets close on Tuesday, manufacturing giant Alcoa will kick off a slew of earnings results for the first quarter. Analysts expect overall earnings in the S&P 500 to significantly slow, possibly signaling the beginning of a turning point in the market. Last year, earnings per share in the S&P 500 grew in the range of 8.4% to 19.7%, but several factors could crimp profits this year.

    To get a sense of where earnings might fall, watch for these four key indicators.

The Apple indicator

    Apple (AAPL) might only be one company in the S&P 500, but lately it's had far more influence on the index than any one company should. At the end of last year, overall earnings for S&P 500 rose about 6% compared to the previous year. If Apple's 116% profit surge was excluded, earnings would have risen only 3%.

    For the first quarter, overall earnings are expected to decline 0.1% compared with a year earlier. But it could be worse without another stellar quarter from Apple. According to a report by FactSet released last week, the S&P 500 could see a deeper 1.6% fall if Apple were excluded. Given that the company's profitability weighs heavier in the technology sector, earnings among the S&P 500 tech companies are forecast to grow 3.4%. Without Apple, earnings would actually fall by 4.7%. The tech company is scheduled to release its earnings after markets close on April 24.

Emerging markets

    Even as the U.S. struggles with a tepid recovery, America's biggest companies have seen profits soar. Not only is it largely because executives trimmed costs and laid off workers, but it's also because they've turned to places like India, China and Brazil for sales.

    Since the global recession of 2009, the developing world has largely driven growth across the globe while Europe and the U.S. struggle to recover from the financial crisis. But signs that growth in emerging markets is slowing will likely hurt profits at U.S. companies.

    Take Alcoa (AA) for instance. Wall Street expects the largest U.S. producer of aluminum to post a loss as the pace of growth slows in key markets like China and Europe. Indeed, analysts and strategists will be looking at how the company is coping with a glut of inventory and weaker prices, but, as Business Insider has pointed out, they'll also focus on the economic outlook of China – the world's biggest consumer of aluminum.

Fuel costs

    Sales may be robust, but paying higher fuel costs to do everything from transporting materials to running machines at factories is expected to erode profits at many big companies.

    The average weekly price for Brent oil was $118.86 at the beginning of this year – markedly higher than the average $106.27 recorded around the same period last year.

    FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters expects that 104 companies in the S&P will see healthy growth in sales during the first quarter, but also a decline in earnings. Excluding banks and other financial companies, net profit margins is expected to come in at 8.4%, the lowest since the first quarter of 2010.    

    巴特斯补充道，消费品公司特别容易受到冲击，如耐克（Nike）、Cheerios麦圈和Yoplait酸奶的生产厂家通用磨坊（General Mills）以及Carnival的邮轮航线等。

    虽然美国航空业去年在油价飙升背景下努力实现了盈利，但今年机票价格和各种附加费上涨可能仍不足以成为盈利保障。国际航空运输协会（International Air Transport Association）3月份的报告指出，燃料成本可能导致全球航空业利润下降62%，降幅大于该协会5个月前做出的预测。它预计，航空业净利润将从去年的79亿美元降至30亿美元。

欧元汇率

    近月来欧债危机持续推动美元对欧元走强。今年年初，欧元平均降至约1.31美元，低于去年差不多同期的1.37美元。

    由于有几家美国公司的年营收大部分来自国际市场，汇率波动可能导致数百万美元的盈利波动。对于那些在欧洲有大幅销售额的公司，美元对欧元走强自然会导致净利润走低。

    以麦当劳（McDonald's）为例。这家总部位于芝加哥西郊橡溪镇的快餐连锁企业在经济衰退和随后的岁月中几乎没有受到大的打击。但风向即将逆转。去年，麦当劳在欧洲实现营收109亿美元，占总营收的40%。汇兑收益将其每股收益提升了19美分，但今年汇兑因素可能对这家公司造成不利影响。麦当劳在1月份的投资者电话会议中警告称，汇兑因素（主要是欧元）可能拉低收益，导致2012年每股收益减少16-18美分。

    麦当劳预计将于4月20日发布财报。

    译者：老榆木

    Butters adds that consumer-focused companies, such as Nike (NKE), General Mills (GIS), maker of Cheerios and Yoplait yogurt, as well as Carnival (CCL) cruise lines, are especially vulnerable.

    And while the U.S. airline industry managed to turn profits amid soaring fuel prices last year, raising ticket prices and fees might not help cushion margins this year. Fuel costs could cause profits across the world's airline industry to plunge 62%, according to the International Air Transport Association's March report. That's a bigger drop than the trade group predicted five months ago. It forecasts that carriers' net profit could fall to $3 billion in 2012 from $7.9 billion last year.

The power of the euro

    In recent months, Europe's ongoing debt crisis has helped strengthen the U.S. dollar against a weakening euro. At the start of this year, the euro on average weakened to about $1.31, compared with $1.37 around the same period last year.

    Because several U.S. companies derive a majority of annual revenues from international markets, swings in exchange rates can translate to millions of dollars in earnings. And for companies with big sales in Europe, a stronger greenback relative to the euro could certainly slow earnings.

    Take McDonald's (MCD). It rode out the recession and the months following almost unscathed. But headwinds are on the horizon. Last year, the Oak Brook-based restaurant chain generated $10.9 billion or 40% of its revenue in Europe. Foreign exchange boosted its earnings by 19 cents per share, but that will likely work against the company this year. During a call with investors in January, the company warned that foreign currency conversion, primarily driven by the euro, could drag down per-share earnings by 16 to 18 cents in 2012.

    McDonald's is expected to report earnings on April 20.