不久你可能就会发现，你家附近麦当劳里的菜单出现了一些变化。这背后到底有什么文章？

    据路透社（Reuters）报道，麦当劳（McDonald）将于3月末对“一美元菜单”的菜品作出部分调整，同时将扩充超值菜单的选项，增加了20块麦乐鸡块、双层吉士汉堡、鸡肉快餐卷以及安格斯快餐卷。

    通过采访我们得知，麦当劳会把重点放在四个不同价位的用餐选择上（不包括套餐）：

    1、 优质菜单：4.50美元至5.50美元及以上

    2、 核心菜单：3.50美元至4.50美元

    3、 超值菜单（新）：1.20美元至3.50美元及以上

    4、 一美元菜单

    我们的同事，一位餐饮业咨询师试图弄清楚麦当劳当前做法的用意，他说：“温迪快餐连锁（Wendy’s）和麦当劳公司佯称，他们采用了神奇的价值定价法，能用低价向消费者提供高价值产品，我觉得这种说法很有意思。但实际上，他们的做法百分之百是由食品成本和消费者行为驱动的。”

    鉴于麦当劳预见到2012年通货膨胀仍会持续，我们认为，麦当劳将会迫使消费者升级购买超值菜单而不是一美元菜单，以此来维持自身利润。这次最大的改变之一是用新鲜烘焙的曲奇饼干和甜筒冰淇淋取代了一美元菜单中的小杯饮料和小份薯条。考虑到这一点，这种判断更有说服力了。

    我们认为这种调整对麦当劳来说风险很大。如果消费者的偏好是把饮料和薯条看作一美元菜单的组成部分，那么这种改变就有可能损害消费者的满意度。麦当劳公司在采访中称：“迷你套餐”的食品选项可能会把薯条、汉堡和饮料打包进去，但现在尚未确定。而一美元食品单点服务正在被取消。

    新的“超值菜单”广告将从3月26日开始播出。根据路透社报道，“新菜单将包括20块麦乐鸡块、双层吉士汉堡、鸡肉快餐卷、安格斯快餐卷、中杯冰咖啡、小量麦旋风（McFlurries），以及多达四种区域性食品选项，这些选项之前没有列入超值菜单。”麦当劳的想法是简化菜单，改变菜单中的主打品类。麦当劳显然喜欢换一种说法来传达这个想法，这家公司声称：调整的目的是为了‘方便消费者找到（超值菜单选项）’。”

    在我们看来，问题在于，“一美元菜单”已经存在很长时间了。通货膨胀已经让其成为无利可图但又不得不保留的累赘。消费者也感受到了通胀的压力，原来他们会购买核心菜单上六七美元的套餐，而现在他们会选择更划算的一美元套餐。我们认为，麦当劳最近的举措目的就是要努力遏制顾客从核心菜单流向一美元菜单。这种调整使得四月份的销售额显得尤为重要，因为投资者将会密切关注新菜单是否能能够奏效。

    Some incremental changes are coming to a McDonald's menu near you – what are the implications?

    Later this month, McDonald's will change some of its Dollar Menu items and it will begin offering an expanded value menu, including 20-piece chicken McNuggets, double cheeseburgers, chicken snack wraps, and Angus snack wraps, according to Reuters.

    As we learned in a conversation with the company, McDonald's is focusing its menu on four tiers (not including combo meals):

    1. Premium: $4.50-$5.50+

    2. Core: $3.50-$4.50

    3. Extra Value Menu (new): $1.20 to $3.50+

    4. Dollar menu

    In trying to understand the implications of what McDonald's is doing, a restaurant industry consultant and associate of ours had this to say: "I get a kick out of these corporate guys at Wendy's (WEN) and McDonald's pretending they have some magical formula for value pricing. It's 100% driven by food costs and customer behavior."

    Given that McDonald's (MCD) is seeing increasing inflation in 2012, we believe the company is trying to manage its margins by forcing consumers to trade up to the "extra value menu" from the "dollar menu." This makes more sense when we consider that one of the biggest changes is to remove small drinks and small fries from the dollar menu and replace those items with fresh baked cookies and ice cream cones.

    We see this as a big risk for McDonald's. If customer preference is to have the drink and fries as part of the dollar menu then there is a risk that this change negatively impacts customer satisfaction. The company told us that a "mini-combo meal" offering may bundle the fries, burger, and drink but a decision has not been made on that yet. Still, ordering the $1 items individually is being taken off the table.

    The new "Extra Value Menu" will be advertised on March 26th. According to Reuters, "the new menu will include 20-piece chicken McNuggets, double cheeseburgers, chicken snack wraps, Angus snack wraps, medium iced coffees and snack-sized McFlurries, plus up to four regional options, that were previously listed elsewhere on its menu." The idea for McDonald's is to streamline and change what is highlighted on the menu. The company likes to phrase this differently, saying that it is "making it easier for customers to find ['Extra Value Menu' items]."

    From our perspective, the big problem is that the "Dollar Menu" has been around for a very long time. Inflation has made it an unprofitable but necessary evil. Customers, also pressed by inflation, have been migrating from the combo meals on the core menu, which can cost $6-$7, over to the Dollar Menu where customers get almost double the value from a price perspective. We view this latest change as an attempt by the company to stem this flow of business from the core menu to the dollar menu. This adds an extra emphasis on the importance of April sales; investors will be watching closely for an indication of whether or not the new menu strategy is working.

对抗唐恩都乐

    另据报道，周一，麦当劳在新英格兰地区启动了新的早餐计划。我们认为，这是为了与唐恩都乐（Dunkin’ Donuts）争夺市场份额而采取的举措，可能会在长期内使后者的日子更不好过。

    根据《波士顿环球报》（Boston Globe）报道，麦当劳的新“菜单包括丹麦芝士、两种松饼、香蕉面包和香草甜筒冰淇淋。与传统的麦当劳早餐菜单不同，这份菜单的特色在于包括燕麦粥、薄烤饼，还对一直以来倍受欢迎的蛋麦满分（Egg McMuffin）做了新的变化，这些烘焙食品将会全天供应。”

    该计划针对波士顿地区，销售范围包括纽约州奥尔巴尼、马萨诸塞州、罗德岛、康涅狄格州以及东北部的若干个州。

    根据麦当劳公司透露，新英格兰地区分部与位于伊利诺伊州橡溪镇麦当劳总部的菜单管理团队合作，“研发了一系列早餐烘焙产品，他们认为，这些新产品能在当地消费者中获得很好的反响”。麦当劳现有的早餐烤箱主要用来制作软饼和馅饼，而现在要每天制作新的早餐产品。

    我们收到消息，新早餐的价格非常有竞争力，价格也与即将于3月底启动的新菜单计划中的“超值餐”相一致。一份丹麦芝士为1.79美元，再加一杯咖啡价格为2.79美元，一个松饼为1.59美元，三个迷你甜筒为1.89美元，香蕉面包为每片1.59美元。

    麦当劳在市场竞争中的表现向来坚决而强势，这一点我们已经见识过好几次了，这次对撼唐恩都乐同样也不例外。麦咖啡（McCafe）计划于2009年启动，而这些烘焙食品就是这个计划的自然延伸。烘焙食品将会全天供应，但现在还很难准确判断它们的销售表现。然而，有一点毋庸置疑：唐恩都乐将是麦当劳瞄准的目标。

    译者：李玫晓/汪皓

Going after Dunkin'

    Separately, McDonald's launched a new breakfast initiative in New England on Monday. We see this as a move to steal share from Dunkin' Donuts (DNKN) that could make life difficult for Dunkin longer-term.

    According to the Boston Globe, McDonald's new "menu items include cheese Danish, two kinds of muffins, banana bread, and vanilla scones. Unlike the traditional McDonald's breakfast menu, which features offerings such as oatmeal, pancakes, and variations of the long-popular Egg McMuffin, the baked goods will be available all day."

    The initiative was organized for McDonald's Boston region and will be sold in Albany, N.Y. Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut as well as a few other states in the Northeast.

    The New England region worked with the menu management team in Oak Brook "to create a line of breakfast pastry products that they believe will resonate well with the local customer base" according to McDonald's. The products are prepared daily in the existing breakfast ovens that are used to cook McDonald's biscuits and pies.

    We are hearing that the prices are very competitive and are consistent with the "extra value meal" section of the new menu initiative being launched at the end of March. A Cheese Danish goes for $1.79 or $2.79 with coffee, muffins for $1.59 each, three mini scones for $1.89 and Banana Bread for $1.59 per slice.

    We have seen several times how ruthless a competitor McDonald's is and we do not see this foray into Dunkin's turf as being insignificant. The baked goods are a natural extension of the McCafé initiative launched in 2009. The baked goods are going to be sold throughout the day and, while it's difficult to know for sure how they will do, Dunkin is clearly in McDonald's crosshairs.

    Follow Howard Penney on Twitter @hedgeyeHWP