趁美国民众还没被大选之年政客们吵吵嚷嚷的高油价理论弄晕之前，我们先来看看几个关于油价的真相吧。迄今为止，不管是民主党人，还是共和党人，华盛顿的政客们还是很少愿意承认这些事实。

    一个鲜为人知的事实是：2008年上次美国总统换届选举期间，油价首次突破100美元/桶其实是价格操纵的结果。

    没错，就是这么回事。全球主要的原油交易市场、纽约商交所（New York Mercantile Exchange）交易池的电话记录显示，那位将油价推至历史高点的交易员在当天交易日开始时曾告诉同事们，他准备“疯狂”一把。完成100美元/桶（与当日其他油价走势截然相反）的交易后，他又夸口称： “我们不会放过这个机会……有人收集艺术品，我们创造价格纪录。”

    我们是怎么知道这些的？这笔交易发生近三年后，美国监管机构悄无声息地通报了对这项“不真实交易”的处罚结果。原油在炼油厂加工制成汽油，原油一涨价，汽油价格自然也水涨船高。为什么美国监管机构要这么拗口地称该项交易为“不真实交易”？原因是即便当时汽油价格已经超过了4美元/加仑，政府仍然担心将这项交易称为“价格操纵”可能引发强烈的反应。接下来的事情就众所周知了。从那时开始，100美元/桶的油价便经常出现，可谓司空见惯。

    华盛顿负责监管能源市场的美国商品期货交易委员会（Commodity Futures Trading Commission，CFTC）现在办事可真是越来越拖拉。直到2010年底，它才起诉上述交易员所在的公司ConAgra Trade Group（后来售予Ospraie Special Opportunities基金和其他投资者）。ConAgra 缴纳了1,200万美元的民事罚款，涉事交易员却安然无恙。CFTC至今也未解释为何没有公开这名交易员的名字。

    那么，最近油价再次跃升至100美元之上又是怎么回事呢？它是另一种市场操纵行为的结果，虽然它是合法的。去年，康菲石油（ConocoPhillips）安排原油通过其海路石油管道（Seaway Pipeline）流入（而非流出）俄克拉荷马州库欣的美国石油储运枢纽，一下就赚了几十亿美元。随着石油供应量飙升至历史新高，美国原油价格承受了巨大的压力，水平远低于世界其他地方。

    Before Americans are subjected to more election-year caterwauling over high gasoline prices, several truths about the price of oil need to be considered – few of them acknowledged so far by the deep thinkers in Washington, whether Democrat or Republican.

    A little-known fact: When oil prices hit $100 a barrel for the first time during the last changing of the presidential guard in 2008, it was the result of price-meddling.

    That's right. In the trading pits of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the world's dominant oil market, phone transcripts showed that the trader who pushed the price to its historic high started the day telling his colleagues he was going to be a "madman" and, after concluding the $100 trade – which ran counter to the session's other price movements – he ended the day bragging, "We weren't gonna' let that one get away from us…some people collect art prints; we collect price prints."

    How do we know all this? The "non-bona fide trade" was quietly reported by our government almost three years after the fact. Oil is processed by refineries to make gasoline, so when oil prices go up, gas prices go up too. Why did the government use such awkward Latinate language in describing the trade as a "non-bona fide" transaction? Because, even as gas prices topped $4 a gallon around the same time, it feared the backlash of calling the oil trade a "manipulation." We all know the rest of the story. From then on, $100 oil would be so common as to become cliché.

    In Washington, the watchdog agency that's responsible for policing the energy market, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has become more known for dragging its feet. It did not charge the offending trader's employer, ConAgra Trade Group (later sold to the Ospraie Special Opportunities fund and other investors) until late 2010. ConAgra paid a civil monetary penalty of $12 million. The trader walked. The CFTC has never explained why it did not name the trader publicly.

    So what about oil's latest leap to over $100? That was the result of another market game, albeit a legal one. ConocoPhillips (COP) made billions last year when it allowed allow oil barrels to enter – but not exit – the nation's key oil hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, through its portion of the Seaway Pipeline. As oil supplies soared to record levels, the price of oil was pressured far below levels seen elsewhere in the world.

    康菲充分利用差价，为其位于大陆中部的炼油厂购买低价原油，然后将加工出来的燃料以较高的全球价格售予美国人和其他买主——这种做法不仅没有受到质疑，还得到了行业的支持。去年11月，康菲宣布将把海路石油管道的部分所有权售予新的所有者，后者确认将反转石油输送方向，将库欣的石油再次运出，美国油价应声跃升至100美元/桶以上。很少有某一个单一的事件能如此清楚地显示出拥有美国战略管道的公司掌握着这样巨大的影响力，但美国政府的应对举措依然不痛不痒。

    简单回顾一下历史价位表，就可以了解到情况的严重性：2003年以来油价不断冲击新高，全然无视中东局势的最新进展以及供求数据。自从第二次伊拉克战争期间能源价格开始失控以来，美国官员们要么两手一摊，辞职了事，要么呼吁增加石油钻探，好像这就是终极解决方案。坦白说，如果解决供应是万能药，库欣创纪录的库存水平早就应该能够压低油价，远远离开100美元的水平线。但事实并非如此。

    同样，也不能说“石油需求”是油价不断上涨的罪魁祸首，因为全球经济下滑趋势延续，全球石油需求增长亦低迷，美国能源部（Department of Energy）下属统计部门——能源情报署（Energy Information Administration）本周公布的数据也支持了这一点。

    全球电子交易的激增也助长了油价的攀升。如今，任何人只要有交易意愿、有互联网接入，就可以把美国能源市场当作拉斯维加斯的一个赌场。这是政客们不愿承认的另一个事实，潘多拉魔盒（Pandora's Box）已经打开，谁还能关上它呢？

    不相信电子交易容易滋生腐败的人不妨再好好想想。上个月，美国一家联邦上诉法庭驳回了对一位高盛（Goldman Sachs）前程序员的有罪判决；此人曾被认定从高盛窃取高频率交易代码。美国助理检察官约瑟夫•费西庞蒂认为它可能被用于“操纵市场”。

    虽然这种专有交易代码是不是真的会失窃还不好说，但我们首先想问的，不愿置评的高盛为什么会拥有可能操纵市场（包括石油市场）的代码。或许，我们可以从中挖出更多的料来来。

    利亚•麦克格雷斯•古德曼是《避难所：绑架世界石油市场的叛徒》

    译者：早稻米

    Conoco took full advantage, snapping up the lower-priced barrels for its refineries in the midcontinent and then selling the fuel it made from them to Americans and other buyers at the higher global price -- a move that not only went unchallenged, but was supported by the industry. This past November, after Conoco announced it would sell its portion of Seaway Pipeline to new owners who confirmed they would reverse the pipeline's direction to allow oil to flow out of Cushing again, oil prices promptly popped back above $100 a barrel. Rarely does a single incident so clearly highlight the immense power held by those wielding our nation's strategic pipelines, yet our government continues to wield the kid-glove treatment.

    A cursory glance at the historic price chart reveals the seriousness of the situation: oil prices have hit unprecedented highs for sustained periods since 2003, regardless of the latest news in the Middle East or supply and demand data. Ever since energy prices began to run off the rails during the latest Iraq war, our nation's elected officials have either thrown up their hands in resignation or called for more drilling as if it was the ultimate cure-all. Frankly, if supply was truly the panacea, Cushing's record supply highs should have been enough to knock oil far from its $100 pedestal. But they were not.

    Meanwhile, demand for oil can't be blamed for keeping prices up either, as global demand growth has been sluggish in light of the protracted economic downturn, supported by data out this week from the Energy Information Administration, the statistics arm of the U.S. Department of Energy.

    The global growth spurt in electronic trading hasn't helped matters. These days, anyone in the world with a caffeinated trigger finger and an Internet hookup can treat the U.S. energy market like a Vegas casino. This is another fact politicians don't like to acknowledge, because now that Pandora's Box is open who's going to shut it?

    For those who do not believe electronic trading is susceptible to corruption, think again. A federal appeals court last month reversed a conviction decision against a former Goldman Sachs (GS) programmer who was found guilty of stealing high-frequency trading code from the bank that, according to Assistant U.S. Attorney Joseph Facciponti, could potentially be used "to manipulate markets."

    While it is concerning that such proprietary trading code might be stolen at all, one might also ask why Goldman, which declined to comment, has code that might manipulate markets – including the oil market – in the first place. Perhaps we could just drown it in more oil.

    Leah McGrath Goodman is the author of The Asylum: The Renegades Who Hijacked the World's Oil Market.