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云公司大举上市有玄机

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市场似乎正张开双臂欢迎商业软件公司上市,只要它们多少具备一些云计算能力就行。但是,它们却没有像Facebook那样,受到来自各方巨细无遗的严格审查。

    近日,Facebook公司正积极筹备,准备在公开市场融资50亿美元占据了媒体首次公开募股(IPO)报道的大部分版面。不过,即使是Facebook整装待发的IPO似乎也难逃一些人挑剔的审查,但是几家打着云计算旗号、规模较小的IPO却进展得得顺风顺水。

    最近的一个例子是Bazaarvoice公司。该公司以每股12美元的价格售出了950万股,高于每股8到10美元的发行价区间。上周五,也就是其首个交易日,Bazaarvoice股价大涨38%,报收于每股16.51美元。这家公司位于德克萨斯州的奥斯丁市,主要业务是监测各类社交网站和评论网站上对各种产品和服务的评价。在某种程度上,Bazaarvoice上市是在为更大牌的公司上市投石问路,特别是Facebook和点评网站Yelp。但由于它的口碑管理软件主要是在线运作,它也应归入近期IPO的其他云计算企业中。

    一周前,Brightcove公司也上市了,交易首日股价大涨30%。这家公司的主要业务是提供基于云的平台,客户可利用这些平台发布在线视频。自上市以来,其股价保持坚挺,上周收于15.10美元,比发行价上涨了37%。使用该公司服务的客户包括通用汽车公司(General Motors)和电子艺界公司(Electronic Arts)。

    它们受到资本市场如此热捧不是没有原因的。Bazaarvoice 公司和 Brightcove公司目前正健康增长,这正是投资者乐于在新上市公司身上看到的现象。2011财年,Bazaarvoice的营收增长了67%,而在截至2012年1月的9个月中增长了65%。Brightcove公司 2010年的营收增长了21%,而去年它更是大步前进,增长了45%。

    近期的IPO市场吹毛求疵、格外挑剔,因此有些经济指标已让一些IPO难以顺利过关,甚至胎死腹中。而这两家公司也存在一些类似的指标。过去两个财年间,很大程度上是由于营业费用吞掉了绝大多数营收,这两家公司都处于净亏损状态。同期,它们的现金流也都为负数。

    无论是Bazaarvoice还是Brigthcove,其收入都不足以支撑自身运营。Bazaarvoice称,获得新客户的预付费用,加之收入要延期入账,导致了负的现金流。Brightcove也称,由于新客户增加,导致发生了递延收入以及应收账款。

    对些原本可能会被IPO投资者视为一种危险信号,因为它意味着一家公司急需现金却可能没有明确的盈利方案。然而,由于这两家公司都属于云计算行业,这一点就已足以为它们赢得额外的加分了。

    而投资者确实也有理由乐观。随着云计算公司扩张规模以招揽更多客户,其硬件成本并不会以同样的速速快速增长。但是依然存在不少风险:任何高科技领域都必然会吸引大批新竞争者,而与那些已经烧钱烧得口袋空空的创业公司相比,很多新进入的公司则是荷包鼓鼓。

    今年早些时候,有两家为特定行业提供商业软件的云公司成功进行了IPO。1月末,专为保险公司提供基于网络软件的Guidewire 软件公司(Guidewire Software)上市募得了1.16亿美元,发行价为每股13美元。其股票交易首日就上涨32%,现在则比发行价高出81%。2月初,专门帮助外科医生管理病人数据的Greenway医疗科技公司(Greenway Medical Technologies)以每股10美元的价格上市,募得6,700万美元。这支股票也在发行首日以30%的涨幅报收,现在则比发行价上涨了45%。

    Facebook may be grabbing the lion's share of IPO news coverage these days as the social network prepares to raise $5 billion from the public markets. But even as Facebook's planned IPO seems to be drawing some critical scrutiny, several smaller IPOs that went public under the banner of cloud computing are faring much better.

    The latest example is Bazaarvoice (BV), which sold 9.5 million shares at $12 a share, above the initial range of $8 to $10 a share. Last Friday, on its first day of trading, Bazaarvoice closed up 38% at $16.51. The Austin, Tex., company monitors how company products and services are discussed on social networks and review sites. In some ways, Bazaarvoice is a test for bigger-name IPOs coming up -- Facebook as well as review site Yelp notably -- but since it hosts much of its word-of-mouth management software online, it's also grouped together with other recent cloud-computing IPOs.

    A week earlier Brightcove (BCOV) went public, rising 30% on its first day of trading. Brightcove, which offers a cloud-based platform where its customers can publish online videos, has held steady since then, closing last week at $15.10, or 37% above its offering price. The firm's services are used by companies ranging from General Motors (GM) to Electronic Arts (ERTS).

    There are some reasons for those warm welcomes. Both Bazaarvoice and Brightcove are experiencing the kind of healthy growth that investors like to see in newly listed companies. Bazaarvoice saw revenue rise 67% in its fiscal 2011 and 65% during the nine months through January 2012. Brightcove's 2010 revenue grew 21% and the pace picked up last year, rising 45%.

    Both also have metrics that -- during recent, finickier IPO markets – have caused some IPOs to falter or not even get out the gate. Both posted net losses during their past two fiscal years, thanks largely to operating expenses that ate up most of revenue. And both saw negative cash flows during the same periods.

    Neither Bazaarvoice nor Brigthcove is generating enough money yet to finance its own operations. Bazaarvoice says the upfront costs of acquiring new clients, coupled with the recording of revenue over an extended period, caused the negative cash flow. Brightcove also cites deferred revenue as well as accounts receivable because of an increase in new customers.

    That can be seen as a red flag for IPO investors, since it can signal a company that's desperate for cash but that may not have a plan to become profitable. In these cases, being involved in the cloud industry is enough to give them a mulligan.

    And there is some reason for investors to be optimistic. As cloud-computing companies scale up to take on more customers, their infrastructure costs don't rise as quickly. But there are also plenty of risks: any hot tech sector is bound to lure in new competitors, many of them with deeper pockets than startups that have been burning through cash.

    Earlier this year, two other cloud companies enjoyed successful IPOs, each offering business software for specific industries. In late January, Guidewire Software (GWRE), which offers web-based software for insurers, raised $116 million in an offering that listed its shares at $13 a share. The stock, which rose 32% on its first day of trading, is now 81% higher than its offering price. In early February, Greenway Medical Technologies (GWAY), which helps physicians manage patient data, went public at $10 a share, raising $67 million. The stock also closed 30% up on its first day, and is now 45% above its offering price.


    Greenway公司在其财年中截至去年6月30日前都显示为净盈利,但最近一个财季中却报告了40.6万美元的净亏损。近期IPO的4家云公司中,Guidewire是唯一一家持续盈利的。去年,其税前利润为830万美元,最近一个财季,利润则为790万美元。

    这些足以解释为什么在近期上市的4家云公司中,Guidewire的股价表现最好。它的成功似乎也为那些收入规模明显偏小、尚未盈利的云公司铺平了IPO的道路。不过,尽管IPO市场一向对赤字没有好感,这些公司还是获得了热捧。

    原因可能要归功于人们对云技术的狂热。或者这也可能是因为Facebook这个庞然大物上市在即,华尔街已经开始提前点火造势,推动更多基于网络的公司进行IPO。Facebook及其投资银行自然乐于看到网络公司IPO后在初期仍然表现红火。但是近期市场情况表明,很多刚刚上市时春风得意的公司几个月后就会偃旗息鼓

    也许除了Guidewire,上述云公司的IPO可能也难逃此劫。对于这些始终亏损、不断烧钱的公司来说,它们的股票定价算是高昂:Greenway的市值是其历史收入的4.5倍,Brightcove是6.1倍,而Bazaarvoice则高达14.6倍。目前,分析人士和媒体记者们正在对Facebook的财务状况进行透彻的审查,如果投资者对上面这些股票也能报以这种态度,它们可能就不会像现在这样风光了。

    译者:清远

    Greenway showed a net profit in its fiscal year through June 30, but slipped to a $406,000 net loss in its most recent quarter. Guidewire is the only consistently profitable company of the four recent cloud IPOs, reporting a $8.3 million profit last year before taxes and $7.9 million profit in its most recent quarter.

    All of which explains why Guidewire is the best performing stock of the four cloud companies to go public in recent weeks. Its success seemed to pave the way for cloud IPOs that were significantly smaller in revenue and that had yet to post a profit. But somehow they have all managed to receive warm welcomes in a IPO market that is not always kind to red ink.

    It may be chalked up to cloud mania. Or it may be Wall Street priming its IPO for more web-based offerings ahead of the mammoth Facebook deal. It's very much in the interest of Facebook -- and its investment banks -- to see web IPOs perform well after they debut. But recent history shows that many web offerings that start strong out of the gate languish after a few months.

    That may be the case with these cloud IPOs as well, except perhaps for Guidewire. For companies that are losing money and burning through cash, they are priced richly: Greenway is trading at 4.5 times its historical revenue, Brightcove is trading at 6.1 times, and Bazaarvoice at an expensive 14.6 times revenue. If investors were to put the kind of critical scrutiny to these stocks that analysts and reporters are applying to Facebook's financials, they might not be faring so well.

 

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