杰米•戴蒙可能需要做些什么来证明自己依然是位出色的银行家。金融危机之后，投资者争相购入摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）的股票，看中的就是戴蒙的杰出表现，他成功地带领摩根大通避开了美国楼市泡沫破裂造成的最严重冲击。但过去几个月，摩根大通和它的这位首席执行官似乎都失去了光彩。

    今年以来，美国各大银行的股价均呈现回升，但摩根大通的反弹幅度低于大多数银行。1月1日迄今，摩根大通股票仅上涨了15%。相比之下，花旗集团（Citigroup）涨了23%，高盛（Goldman）涨28%，美国银行（Bank of America）更是飙升42%。更糟的是，摩根大通股票的估值也低于很多竞争对手——虽然业界一度认为它们的状况比摩根大通糟糕得多。实际上，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的一位分析师称，假如这几年摩根大通经历了分崩离析的过程，任其自生自灭，假如这个过程中戴蒙被扫地出门，可能摩根大通如今的股价反而会涨到48美元，比当前38.72美元的股价还要高24%。天哪。

    周二在摩根大通的年度股东大会上，戴蒙还有机会赢得股东的支持。但如今要证明摩根大通的股票估值应高于竞争对手，可比过去难多了。

    部分原因在于戴蒙。戴蒙是成功预测次贷损失并采取行动避免了相关损失的少数银行首席执行官之一。但最近一年左右，越来越明确的一点是，戴蒙干得并没有之前想象的那么漂亮。近期多家美国大银行就“自动签名”（robo-signing，贷款服务商在未审查相关文件的情况下便签字——译注）同49个州的总检察长达成和解，赔偿250亿美元，摩根大通需承担53亿美元。虽然没像美国银行（近120亿美元）那么多，但还是达到了花旗集团（22亿美元）的两倍还多。另外，摩根大通未来还将出现更多的按揭贷款损失。摩根大通止赎的按揭贷款比例略高于14%，这些贷款不是已停止还款，就是还款已逾期90天 。据上述摩根士丹利的分析师称，这一比例高于其他大银行，后者的不良住房贷款比例平均为12%。

    而且，在很多人认为很可能触发下一次金融危机的欧洲，摩根大通似乎没有像次级危机前那样积极抽身。根据里昂证券(CLSA)银行业分析师、近期撰写了《流亡华尔街》（Exile on Wall Street）一书的迈克•梅奥统计，摩根大通在债务违约风险看来最高的希腊、爱尔兰、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙的净敞口高达160亿美元。

    Jamie Dimon may need to do something to prove he still deserves a premium. In the wake of the financial crisis, investors paid up for JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) shares because Dimon had done a remarkably good job of steering his bank clear of the worst of the housing bust. But in the past few months, JPMorgan and its CEO seem to have lost their luster.

    While shares of all of the big banks have rallied this year, JPMorgan's are up less than most. The stock of Dimon's bank has risen 15% since Jan. 1. That compares to 23% for Citigroup (C), 28% for Goldman (GS) and 42% for Bank of America (BAC). Worse, JPMorgan's shares now get a lower valuation than many rivals - even those that were once seen as much weaker. In fact, were JPMorgan broken up and left for dead, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley, presumably booting Dimon in the process, the bank's shares could potentially rise to $48, up 24% from its current price of $38.72. Ouch.

    Dimon will get another shot to win over investors on Tuesday, when JPMorgan holds its annual meeting with shareholders. But arguing JPMorgan should be more highly valued than its rivals is harder than it used to be.

    Part of the reason has to do with Dimon, who was famously one of the few bank CEOs to foresee losses in subprime mortgages and made moves to avoid them. But in the past year or so, it has become clear that Dimon wasn't as successful as was thought. JPMorgan's portion of the recent $25 billion 'robo-signing' settlement with 49 state attorneys general was $5.3 billion. Not as much as Bank of America, which has to pay out to states and borrowers nearly $12 billion, but more than double Citigroup's penalty, which was $2.2 billion. What's more, JPMorgan has more mortgage losses coming. Just over 14% of JPMorgan's mortgages have either been foreclosed upon, are no-longer paying or are 90 days past due. That's higher than at other big banks, where distressed home loans average 12%, according to the Morgan Stanley analysts.

    And unlike subprime mortgages, JPMorgan doesn't seem as aggressive in trying to sidestep what many people see as the likeliest cause of the next financial crisis: Europe. According to Mike Mayo, banking analyst at CLSA and author of the recent book Exile on Wall Street, JPMorgan has $16 billion in net exposure to Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain - the countries seen as the most likely to default.

    此外，增长也是个问题。而且，这不是因为不努力。过去一年，摩根大通新增了216个分支机构，4,000名零售银行家和销售专员，并扩大了企业贷款和投资银行业务。但摩根大通的营收仍在下降，而不是上升——仅第四季度就下降了18%。而且，摩根大通依然保持着华尔街大行中规模最大的衍生品业务。监管的收紧以及银行信用评级下调可能会使这块业务的盈利能力下降。梅奥说，摩根大通的衍生品营收可能减少10亿美元。

    但摩根大通最大的问题可能是戴蒙对该行过于自信。去年，戴蒙称，国际资本金条例提案将迫使他的银行比一些竞争对手持有更多资本金，是一份“反美国的”提案。事实上，迄今为止，戴蒙并没像其他银行那样紧急增加资本金。而且，戴蒙说他也不会像其他银行一样，将资本金提高到高于新规要求的水平。目前，摩根大通的有形资本金比率低于花旗集团和美国银行。戴蒙看来对此毫不在意。摩根大通早就证明了它一向善于管理和保护资本金方面。是的，但那是三年前。如今，在大多数投资者看来，摩根大通与其他大银行没什么两样，甚至都不是其中最受青睐的一家。

    Growth has been an issue as well. And it's not for not trying. In the past year, JPMorgan has added 216 new branches and 4,000 retail bankers and sales specialists. It has also expanded its corporate lending and investment bank. Nonetheless, JPMorgan's revenue has been dropping, not rising -- down 18% in the fourth quarter alone. And JPMorgan still maintains the largest derivatives books among the big banks. Tighter regulations and lower debt ratings for the banks will probably make that business less profitable. Mayo says JPMorgan's derivatives revenue could drop by $1 billion.

    But JPMorgan's biggest problem might be Dimon's own inflated image of his bank. Last year, Dimon called proposed international capital rules that would force his bank to hold more capital than some of his rivals as "anti-American." In fact, Dimon hasn't rushed to raise capital like other banks. And Dimon says he won't raise excess capital above new rules, as other banks have. JPMorgan now maintains a lower tangible capital ratio than Citigroup or Bank of America. And that appears to be fine with Dimon. His bank proved it was better at managing and protecting its capital. Yes, but that was three years ago. These days, JPMorgan looks like just another large bank to most investors, and not even the most loved one.