欧洲主权债务危机刚刚获得喘息之机，然而，就在此时，华尔街又开始越来越担心日本可能成为这场全球金融危机的下一个引爆点。当前，日本经济疲弱，负债相对于经济产值已经急剧膨胀，水平之高甚至使希腊看上去都像是用钱有度。日本的经济账目经过了约20年的累积，似乎将在不远的将来迎来关键时刻。

    华尔街正在买入信用违约掉期（CDS），为日本债务危机爆发的那一天做好准备。纽约和伦敦的交易员们告诉《财富》杂志（Fortune），过去一年日本主权债券CDS大幅震荡，现为135个基点左右，比日本主权债券收益率高出100个基点。CDS为投资者提供了违约情况下的获利机会。

    虽然日本的债务炸弹不会明天就爆炸，但当前日本CDS的价格已比一年前高出50%。近年来华尔街对日本债券市场的参与度上升，可能给日本政府带来更大的压力，迫使它们努力解决债务困境。不过，华尔街的“债券保安团”（bond vigilantes，为抗议通胀性的货币或财政政策而卖出债券的投资者——译注）可能会逐步将日本债券收益率推至高位，导致日本政府再也无力偿付债券，引发历史上最大规模的主权债务违约潮之一。

    想到素以高效和受到良好教育而著称的日本人可能已经给自己挖下了这么一个债务泥潭，真是有点不可思议。但当前日本的总负债/GDP比率已高达235%，并还在与日俱增。可资比较的是美国的负债/GDP比率约为98%，处境最糟糕的欧元区成员国希腊和葡萄牙的这一比率也分别只有159%和110%左右。

    日本之所以能不断扩大举债，有赖于一些显而易见的债务保障机制，包括强大的出口产业使得日本成为一个资本净输入国，以及忠诚的日本人更倾向于在国内进行投资和消费。而且，和其他发达经济体不同，很大一部分日本债务的债主都是本国国民，因此它并不需要面对华尔街债券投资者的质问。

    但上周，日本传出的一些经济消息却令投资者大为紧张。这些消息显示，日本的债务保障体系已竟出现裂缝。消息称，第四季度日本GDP降幅为远超预期的2.3%；此外，日本这个出口大国还宣布出现了1980年以来首次全年贸易逆差。日本财务省（the Ministry of Finance）将贸易逆差归咎于能源价格高企，以及去年大地震导致出口中断。虽然这两项因素确实在一定程度上导致了贸易逆差，但主要问题似乎在于日元。

    目前，日元兑美元和欧元的汇率极其坚挺，导致日本出口商品的国际市场价格远高于从前。随着出口减少，日本一些大型出口企业可能出现创纪录的亏损数据。比如，最近松下（Panasonic）已宣称本财年预计亏损100亿美元，索尼（Sony）也表示本财年净亏损将翻番至28亿美元左右，创下公司历史上最高的年度亏损。日本大企业亏损意味着日本经济增速放缓，政府财政收入锐减。为了维持运转，政府只能向继续国民借更多的钱。

    With the European sovereign debt imbroglio taking a breather for the moment, there is increasing concern on Wall Street that Japan could be the next major flashpoint in the ongoing global financial crisis. It appears that the country's economic reckoning, some 20 years in the making, could finally be coming to a head in the near future as the economy weakens and its debt, relative to its economic output, balloons to a level that makes Greece look like a responsible steward of capital.

    Wall Street is buying protection in the form of credit default swaps to prepare for that day Japan implodes. Trading of swaps on Japanese sovereigns has been highly volatile in the past year -- they are currently being sold at around 135 basis points, 100 basis points above Japan's debt yield, credit traders in New York and London tell Fortune. Credit default swaps provide a way for investors to make money in the event of a default.

    While the Japanese debt bomb isn't expected to go off tomorrow, Japanese CDS is now 50% higher than where it was a year ago. Wall Street involvement in the Japanese debt market has grown in the last few years, which could bring increased pressure on the government to try and solve its debt dilemma. Eventually, though, the Wall Street bond vigilantes could drag Japanese bond yields up to levels that could cripple the government's ability to pay off its debts, setting the stage for one of the most prolific sovereign debt defaults in history.

    It seems crazy to think that Japan, a country known for its efficiency and educated population, could have dug itself into such a dire debt hole. But Japan's total debt compared to its GDP is topping 235% and getting larger by the day. As a point of reference, the U.S. has a debt to GDP ratio of around 98%, while the worst off eurozone members, Greece and Portugal, have ratios of around 159% and 110%, respectively.

    But Japan has been able to continue racking up the debt because of some notable debt defenses. Those defenses include the nation's strong export industry, as it allows Japan to be a net importer of capital, and the nation's loyal population, which tends to invest and spend money at home. And unlike other advanced economies, the bulk of Japan's debt is held by its own citizens, so it hasn't faced the full wrath of Wall Street's bond investors.

    But the nation announced some startling economic news this week that has exposed some chinks in Japan's debt defenses. In addition to announcing a much larger-than-expected 2.3% contraction in the country's GDP in the fourth quarter, Japan, the exporting powerhouse, said it ran its first annual trade deficit since 1980. The Ministry of Finance blamed the trade deficit on the high price of energy and the disruption in exports caused by last year's devastating earthquake. While both events did contribute to the trade deficit, the main issue here seems to be Japan's currency.

    The yen is now extremely strong versus the U.S. dollar and the euro, making Japan's exports appear more expensive than ever before on the international market. Some of the nation's largest export-driven companies are reporting record losses as a result of reduced outflows. For example, Panasonic recently said that it was forecasting a $10 billion loss for the fiscal year, while Sony (SNE) announced that it was doubling its net loss to around $2.8 billion for the fiscal year, the largest loss in the company's history. The losses at Japan's biggest firms translate to reduced economic growth and a big decrease in government revenue. That forces Tokyo to borrow more money from its citizens to stay afloat.

    与此同时，坚挺的日元导致进口商品价格比国产商品更便宜，忠诚的日本消费者也开始有所动摇，进一步加剧了日本的贸易逆差。12月份，日本实际进口额增长了4.1%，而此前的预期是下降1.4%，实际远超预期。随着日元升值，日本消费者开始越来越习惯于购买进口商品，这股趋势预计将得到延续。

    坚挺的日元以及持续的低利率对忠诚的日本投资者也产生了影响。虽然目前大部分日本资产仍然放在利息极低的银行账户和日本国债中，过去两年已有一部分资产通过共同基金投资收益率较高的国际证券。与此同时，外国投资者持有日本债券的比例也在上升，高盛（Goldman Sachs）的数据显示，这个数字已从去年的5%升至8%左右。外国投资者持有的短期债券比例过去十年增长了一倍，现已逼近20%。

    十年来日本政府一直在努力降低日元汇率，但始终没有进展。它不停地执行了多轮量化宽松政策，即日本央行用新印的日元向银行回购日本国债，增加货币供应量。去年日本央行实施了三轮量化宽松，但日元依然持续升值。周二，日本央行出人意料地宣布扩大量化宽松计划，再向银行体系注入1,300亿美元。日元汇率小幅下降，但预计新增的货币供应不会对日元汇率产生持续的影响。

    随着日本传统的债务保障体系出现裂缝，日元升值，华尔街的“债券保安团”有望复制去年在欧洲的战绩。日本利率和日本CDS之间的利差意味着外国投资者越来越担心日本政府的信用度。这种担心是可以理解的，毕竟日本政府今年的税收收入将仅及预算的40%。

    虽然一切迹象都很清楚，日本的债务保障体系出了问题，但日本国债收益率仍低于1%，让日本政府还是能以很低的成本继续借钱。但去年日本债券和CDS的剧烈波动意味着已经出现软肋，即便是一次并不严重的信用事件也可能导致日本国内外债券投资者夺路而走，一夜间将日本主权债券的收益率推至极高水平——去年意大利的情况就是如此。

    日本要躲过这场债务之灾绝非易事。它可以试着将货币供应总量增加一倍或两倍，借助通胀摆脱危机，但这同时也会导致日本的储蓄大幅缩水。日本政府也可以实施一些严厉的紧缩措施，减少支出，或者调高税负，增加政府收入，但这两种做法都会对经济增长产生严重后果。目前日本政府提议的、最激进的举措是到2014年，将日本的销售税提高至8%，第二年再升至10%，但这些对于日本堆积如山的债务来说可能只是杯水车薪。

    日本最终将于何时不堪债务重负，目前仍不得而知。但未来几年，日本的老龄化人口将大批退休，这些人将卖出所有的债券，停止买入，届时日本政府将再也无法继续依靠国民融资。随着日本债务保障体系受损，这一天的到来可能会比任何人预想的都要快。

    Meanwhile, the loyal Japanese consumer has started to stray a bit as the strong yen has made foreign goods look relatively cheap compared to domestic products, further exacerbating the nation's trade deficit. Real imports into Japan in December exceeded expectations of a 1.4% contraction to a 4.1% increase. This trend is expected to continue as the yen strengthens and Japanese consumers become more comfortable buying foreign goods.

    The strong yen and prolonged weak interest rates are also affecting the loyal Japanese investor. While the vast majority of Japanese assets still remain parked at the bank and in government bonds yielding little interest, there has been a shift in the past two years to invest in higher-yielding international securities offered through mutual funds. At the same time, foreign ownership of Japanese debt is on the rise, going from 5% last year to around 8%, according to Goldman Sachs. The share of short-term debt held by foreigners has now doubled in the last decade to just below 20%.

    The Japanese government has tried to weaken the yen for a decade to no avail. It has incessantly engaged in multiple rounds of quantitative easing, which is when the central bank buys back its bonds from the banks with freshly printed cash, thus inflating the money supply. The BOJ engaged in three rounds of QE last year, but the yen kept strengthening. On Tuesday, the BOJ surprised the markets and announced an expansion of its QE program, injecting an additional $130 billion into the banking system. The yen weakened a bit, but the additional QE isn't expected to have a lasting effect on its value.

    With Japan's traditional debt defenses damaged and the yen increasing in value, the stage is set for the Wall Street bond vigilantes to make their mark as they did in Europe last year. The difference in yields between Japanese interest rates and Japanese CDS implies that foreigners are growing concerned as to the creditworthiness of the Japanese government. That's understandable given that the government will bring in only 40% of what it needs this year in taxes to cover its budget.

    Despite all the clear signs of trouble and the damage to its debt defenses, Japanese sovereign debt is still trading below 1%, making it easy for the government to continue borrowing. But the volatile trading in Japanese bonds and CDS in the last year implies a vulnerability where even a mild credit event could trigger a run on the sovereign by both foreign and domestic bondholders, sending government borrowing rates skyrocketing overnight - just as it did in Italy last year.

    There seems to be no easy way for Japan to escape this debt prison. It could try to inflate its way out of the mess by doubling or tripling the entire money supply, but that would effectively decimate the nation's savings. The government could implement some draconian austerity measures to rein in spending or hike up taxes to increase revenue, but both moves would have severe consequences on economic growth. The boldest move the government is proposing is to hike the nation's sales tax to 8% by 2014, which would increase to 10% in the following year, but that isn't enough to make a dent in the debt pile.

    There is no way to know when Japan will finally succumb to its debts. Japan's aging population will be retiring in droves over the next few years, meaning that they will stop buying and start liquidating their bonds, eliminating the government's ability to fund itself. With Japan's debt defenses compromised, that day of reckoning could be coming up much sooner than anyone can imagine.

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