花旗集团（Citigroup）的全球扩张已经开始初见成效，但它面临的挑战仍然存在。最新的一项利好消息是拜中国政府所赐。上周，中国政府批准花旗向中国快速壮大的消费者人群发放信用卡，它将使花旗成为首家能在中国境内独立发行信用卡的外资银行。

    花旗集团努力向美国以外地区寻找营收增长机会之际，此举将扩展它的国际个人和商业银行业务，进一步拉开它与竞争对手美国银行（Bank of America）之间的差异，后者正更多地专注于精简国内个人银行业务，而不是海外扩张。

    花旗集团首席执行官潘迪特上周抵达亚洲时满面笑容。继韩国后，潘迪特抵达了中国，庆贺花旗集团成立200周年。这个200岁生日，短短几年前看起来可能还可望而不可即。当时，由于美国楼市泡沫破灭，花旗集团蒙受了几百亿美元的巨大损失，正沉浮于破产边缘。

    但如今，人们都翘首期盼未来。经历2008年危机屹立不倒的美国大银行们已经恢复了几分元气，正在努力对公司业务进行调整，以适应当前的经营环境。比如，美国银行（Bank of America）正在集中精力巩固和精简国内个人银行业务，而摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）则在努力扩张国内个人经纪服务。

    花旗集团的答案一直是成为一家真正的全球性个人和商业银行，实现营业收入多元化，以降低美国业务的比重，因为美国市场已趋于饱和，更严格的监管也挤压了利润空间。美国以外的地区早已占到花旗集团总营收的一半以上，因此它显然知道如何在新市场中实现扩张。过去几年，它的大部分资本支出都用于在亚洲、拉美、中东和东欧建设营运网络，重点是拓展中国的个人银行市场。

    迄今为止，结果好坏不一。相比北美市场，花旗海外业务当然是在增长，至少商业银行业务是这样。过去两年，花旗海外的企业和个人贷款增长了22%，而北美市场则下降了6%。与此同时，花旗海外的存款增长了14%，而北美市场下降了2%。

    但花旗海外业务的总营收和净利润数据并没有那么亮丽。2011年第四季度，国际个人银行业务实现营收47亿美元，同比小幅增长了2%。与此同时，国际净利润却大降16%至7.88亿美元。

    不过，如果进一步分析，这些数据并没有看上去那么糟糕。净利润大幅下降，部分是由于当年新增贷款计提了7,200万美元的坏账准备金。如果剔除欧洲和中东，营收将略有增长——特别是在亚洲，亚洲营收增长了5%。2011年营运费用依然居高不下，但第三季度国际业务的净营运杠杆率一度转为正值，说明营收增长终于超过了费用的上涨。

    Citigroup's global expansion is starting to yield some choice dividends, but headwinds still exist. The latest mark in the win column comes courtesy of the Chinese government, which last week authorized Citi to offer credit cards to the nation's rapidly growing consumer class. That would make Citi the first non-Chinese bank to offer a credit card there on its own.

    The move expands the bank's international retail and commercial footprint as it seeks revenue growth from outside the United States. It also further expands the chasm between it and its big rival, Bank of America, which is focusing more on rightsizing its domestic retail operations as opposed to growing overseas.

    Citigroup's chief executive, Vikram Pandit, was all smiles as he touched down in Asia last week. After making his way through Korea, Pandit landed in China to celebrate the bank's 200th anniversary. It was a birthday that just a couple of years ago looked unattainable as the bank teetered on the edge of collapse after absorbing tens of billions in losses connected with the bursting of the housing bubble.

    But now it's all about the future. The U.S. megabanks that survived the 2008 tumult have somewhat recovered and are now trying to readjust and refocus their business for the current operating environment. For example, Bank of America (BAC) is concentrating on solidifying and rightsizing its domestic retail banking operations, while Morgan Stanley (MS) is looking to expand its domestic retail brokerage services.

    For Citigroup (C), the answer has been to become a truly global retail and commercial bank, diversifying its revenue stream in an attempt to limit its exposure to the U.S., where the market was maturing and profit margins were being squeezed from increased regulations. Citi already derives more than half of its revenues from outside the United States, so it knows how to expand in new markets. It has spent the bulk of its capital expenditures over the last few years on building out its operations in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Eastern Europe, with a major focus on expanding its retail presence in China.

    The results so far have been mixed. There has certainly been an increase in business for Citi overseas compared to North America, at least in the commercial banking group. Citi's lending to corporations and people abroad is up 22% in the last two years, while it is down 6% in North America. Meanwhile, deposits grew 14% abroad in the last two years and fell 2% in North America.

    But overall revenue and net income from Citi's international operations has been less than stellar. International consumer banking revenue was up a slight 2% to $4.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2011 versus the same period last year. Meanwhile, overall international net income fell 16% to $788 million during the same time period.

    Dig deeper into the numbers, however, and it doesn't look so bad. The steep drop in net income was due in part to a $72 million build in credit reserves needed to cover all the new loans made during the year. Revenues then perk up a bit when you strip out Europe and the Middle East -- especially in Asia, where there was a 5% increase in revenue. Operating expenses remained elevated throughout the year but the net operating leverage for the international segment turned positive for the first time in a while during the third quarter, meaning that revenues were finally outpacing expenses.

    花旗相信公司的未来显然是在亚洲和拉美，并且似乎已准备好为此投入大笔资金。去年，它斥资约6亿美元投资海外业务，主要是在亚洲，用于帮助开设新的分支机构，招聘新员工。潘迪特在北京表示，虽然花旗正在美国裁员，但在亚洲正在扩招员工，特别是在中国。

    花旗进入中国市场已有若干年的历史，一直与政府保持着亲密友好的关系。它在中国13个大城市设有分行和46家个人银行网点。在中国，银行分支机构非常重要，它是个人获取信用卡的唯一渠道。2003年以来，花旗一直与一家中国国内银行合作发行信用卡。

    但花旗不断扩张的银行网络在中国整个个人银行市场上占比仍然较小。外资银行在中国银行市场的占有率仅为1.8%，花旗取得的是这其中更小的一部分。过去五年，中国流通的信用卡数量猛增长了五倍，达到了2.70亿张。中国国内大银行占据了大部分市场，但似乎依然存在更大的市场可供开拓。万事达（MasterCard）估计，到2025年中国流通的信用卡数量将达到11亿张，信用卡消费额将达到2.5万亿美元。鉴于中国庞大的人口规模和日益增长的个人收入，这样的数字听起来并不夸张。

    中国人向来注重身份，花旗获批发行自己的信用卡将提高它在中国人中的品牌认知度，特别是那些受过良好教育的、富裕的城市消费者，而这部分人正是花旗瞄准的目标。只要能在这个市场中分得一小杯羹，就能带来丰厚的回报。

    但如果中国经济高台跳水，银行体系触礁，情形又会如何？潘迪特在12月份的分析师会议上这样说：

    毫无疑问，新兴市场地区会出现周期。总是会存在“增长过快或过慢”的问题。不过，如果观察趋势，长期的变化是真真切切的。因此，如果认为他们会达到6%的经济增速，他们可能做不到。就算他们的增速只有美联储压力测试采用的4%或5%，那又怎样？说到底，他们是在增长。因此，我想我们已做好了准备，我们可以抓住这个机遇。

    因此，即便增长率没有那么亮丽，中国的经济增速必定还是会快于美国和欧洲。进入中国市场，不管我们的市场占有率多低，总的效果还是积极的。

    当然，如果经济触底，人们失业，信贷增速可能很快就会掉头向下。眼下，人们认为中国楼市已经出现类似几年美国出现过的泡沫，甚至更严重。与此同时，欧洲经济的放缓也对中国出口造成了冲击。中国人习惯在买大件商品时全部用现金支付，但这种情况正在发生改变，因为后毛泽东时期的年轻一代更习惯于贷款消费以及使用银行卡。房价下跌可能迅速扩散至消费者信用卡领域，对花旗的净利润构成双重打击。

    目前尚不清楚中国政府会容忍花旗在中国做到多大。中国政府一直对金融业严加监管，力挺国有银行的发展。但即便只是在这个迅速膨胀的市场中分得一小杯羹，对花旗也意义非凡。如果中国政府继续限制其他外资银行进入这个市场的话，那就更是如此了。

    译者：zdm

    Citi believes that its future clearly lies in Asia and Latin America and seems prepared to put in the investment dollars to get it done. It spent around $600 million investing in its operations abroad last year, with the bulk centered in Asia. That helped the bank open new branches and hire new workers. In Beijing, Pandit said that while the bank was paring down its workforce in the U.S., it was ramping up hiring in Asia, especially China.

    Citi has been in China for a while and maintains close and cordial relations with the government. It has new branches in 13 major Chinese cities along with 46 consumer outlets. The bank branch is very important in China, as it's the only place where a person can obtain a credit card. Since 2003, Citi has issued a credit card in cooperation with a local Chinese partner.

    But Citi's expanded physical presence is still but a small fraction of the total Chinese consumer banking market. Foreign banks hold just 1.8% of the market, with Citi a small sliver of that. The number of credit cards in circulation in China has exploded to 270 million, up five fold since in the last five years. The big Chinese banks have gotten most of that business, but there seems to be a lot more market to share. MasterCard (MA) estimates that China will have 1.1 billion credit cards in circulation by 2025, with spending on those cards estimated to reach $2.5 trillion. Based on China's population and rising personal incomes, that number sounds modest.

    Allowing Citi to market its own card will raise its brand recognition among the status-driven Chinese, especially the urban, educated and rich consumers that Citi wants to target. Tapping just a fraction of that market could be very lucrative.

    But what if the Chinese economy falls off a cliff and the banking system runs aground? Pandit said this at an analyst meeting in December:

    There's no question that there are likely to be cycles in the emerging market areas. There are always questions of moving a little too fast, moving a little too slow. Having said that, when you look at the underlying trends, the secular change is real. And so if you think they're going to grow at 6%, well, maybe they don't. If they grow at the Fed's stress test of 4% or 5%, so what? At the end of the day, that's where the growth is, and so I think we're pretty well positioned to capture that.

    So even if the growth rate isn't stellar, it is bound to be better in China than in the U.S. or Europe. Having a toe in the Chinese market, however small, will be a net positive.

    Of course, growth in credit can end up reversing really fast if the economy tanks and people lose their jobs. The Chinese real estate market is thought to be in a bubble similar or worse than what the U.S. was in a few years ago. Meanwhile, a slowdown in Europe has taken a toll on China's export market. The Chinese tend to spend all cash on large items, but that's changing as the younger, post-Mao generations grow more comfortable with the idea of taking out loans and using plastic. A crash in housing could quickly spread to consumer credit cards, delivering a one-two punch to Citi's bottom line.

    It is unclear how big Citi will be allowed to get in China. The government keeps close tabs on the financial sector and holds up its national champions. But even a small sliver of this explosive market could mean a lot for Citi, especially if the government keeps other foreign players out of the market.