眼下已经到了将美国广播公司（ABC）赶出迪士尼（Disney）奇妙王国的时候了吗？迪士尼这个传媒巨无霸的第一财季原本相对完美，但美国广播公司却再度成为它身上唯一的痛。由于增长乏力和盈利周期性特点，美国广播公司多年来一直是迪士尼股价的累赘。而且，鉴于21世纪的媒体消费方式，其前景也并不乐观。

    但迪士尼高层并没有努力削减损失、试图出售美国广播公司，据称反而是在这个日渐衰亡的品牌上加码投资，与西班牙语传媒巨头Univision合作，计划打造另一个24小时英语有线新闻网络。且不提该电视网络的古怪定位，光是在早已拥挤不堪的有线新闻电视市场里建立、运营这样一个网络所需要的巨额投入，就不值得这么大费周章，而且这个新的电视网可能还会成为迪士尼另一个沉重的负担。

    美国广播公司（包括ABC电视网和ABC所属8个附属企业）周二公布，第一财季营业收入同比下降了7%，营运利润大降23%。迪士尼其他业务，包括美国电视公司家庭频道（ABC Family）、ESPN体育频道等有线电视网以及主题公园和电影制片厂，营收和利润都达到或超过了预期。

    迪士尼将美国广播公司业绩不佳归咎于广受欢迎的奥普拉•温弗瑞脱口秀停播后附属企业营收下降，以及非大选年政治广告收入减少。虽然这两个因素可以解释营收的下降，但不能说明利润为何大幅下降，因为美国广播公司持有和经营的附属电视台很少，奥普拉脱口秀停播以及政治广告减少导致的营收下降应该不会造成这么大的冲击。

    美国广播公司的娱乐和新闻频道（看上去也越来越娱乐化）仍饱受收视率下降之苦，广告时段价格已较从前下降。去年秋季，美国广播公司在18-49岁观众群中的收视率居四大电视网之末，同比下降了1%；同期，福克斯广播公司（Fox）和哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）在这个关键营销群体中的收视率却分别上升了2%和14%。

    据报道，迪士尼2010年春季的时候差点就把美国广播公司卖给了几家私募股权公司，但交易最终未能实现。此后，迪士尼一直在美国广播公司努力削减成本，裁减人员。在很多业内人士看来，管理层这样做无非是想让这块业务看起来尽可能地高效和盈利，希望引来新的买家。但美国广播公司的糟糕业绩可能吓跑了原本有意伸出橄榄枝的投资者。

    打造另一个新闻电视网？

    因此，迪士尼非但没有采取措施降低损失，通过某种免税分拆或大甩卖的方式剥离这块业务，反而准备要向美国广播公司投入更多的钱了。有报道称，美国广播公司很快会宣布与Univision合作，组建自己的24小时有线新闻网。它将把旗下的新闻部门与Univision的新闻部门合并，创建一个面向西班牙裔受众的电视网。听起来是个不错的点子，但怪就怪在电视台播报用的不是西班牙语，而是英语。美国广播公司的想法是，越来越多的西班牙裔美国人说的是英语，希望看到有一个专门的新闻频道关注所有影响西班牙裔群体的热点事务，而广告主也可以直接连接这一日益富裕的族裔群体。

    Is it time for Disney to finally banish ABC from the Magic Kingdom? The media conglomerate's broadcast division was yet again the only real bruise in what would have been a relatively blemish-free quarter. ABC's anemic growth rate, coupled with its earnings cyclicality, has been a drag on Disney's stock for years, and its future doesn't look positive given the way people consume media in the 21st century.

    But instead of cutting its losses and selling ABC, Disney executives are reportedly gearing up to double down on the dying brand by forming a partnership with Spanish-language powerhouse Univision to create yet another 24-hour cable news network – in English. Looking beyond the odd premise of such a network, the cost to get such a venture up and going in an already crowded field of cable news stations may not be worth the headache and could become yet another albatross around Disney's neck.

    Disney's broadcast division, which includes the ABC network and its eight ABC-owned affiliates, reported yesterday a 7% decline in revenue and a whopping 23% decline in operating income for its fiscal first quarter, compared with the same time last year. The rest of the company, which includes its cable networks, like ABC Family and ESPN, as well as its theme parks and movie studios, met or beat revenue and profit expectations.

    Disney (DIS) blamed the poor showing at ABC on lower affiliate revenue following the end of Oprah Winfrey's popular talk show and a decrease in political ad spending, as it was not an election year. While both may explain a decrease in revenue, it doesn't make up for the huge decrease in profits. ABC has the fewest owned and operated affiliate stations, so the decrease in revenues from losing Oprah and the political ads shouldn't have moved the needle as much as it was moved.

    ABC's entertainment division and its news division, which is looking increasingly like an entertainment outlet, continues to suffer from a fall in viewership, making its ad space worth less today than in the past. ABC ended the fall season dead last among the four networks among 18 to 49 year olds, down 1% in viewership from last year. That compares to the 2% and 14% increase in viewership at Fox and CBS, respectively, in this key marketing demographic.

    The company was reportedly close to selling off ABC in the spring of 2010 to a consortium of private equity firms, but that deal never materialized. Since then, Disney has been chopping costs and slashing employees at ABC in what appeared to many in the industry to be an attempt by management to make the division look as lean and as profitable as possible to attract new buyers. But ABC's poor performance may have scared off would-be suitors.

Another news network?

    So instead of just cutting its losses and ejecting the division through some sort of tax-free spinoff or fire sale, Disney appears set to invest even more money in ABC. There is now talk that ABC is close to announcing the formation of its own 24-hour cable news network in partnership with Univision. It would meld its gutted ABC news division with Univision's news division to create a station catering to the Hispanic market. Sounds like an interesting idea, but what is odd is that instead of the station being in Spanish, it would be in English. The thinking at ABC is that the growing number of Hispanic Americans who speak English will want to watch a network news channel that is geared to issues affecting "their community" and that advertisers will then have a direct link to this increasingly affluent ethnic group.

    这个方案似乎是一项定位错误的冒失之举。其他所有的24小时有线新闻电视网都根据意识形态划分：新闻集团（News Corp）的福克斯新闻网（Fox News）瞄准保守人士，时代华纳（Time Warner）的有线电视新闻网（CNN）面向温和派，而康卡斯特（Comcast）和微软的MSNBC迎合自由主义者【《财富》（Fortune）杂志隶属于时代华纳】。搞不懂为什么说英语的西班牙裔美国人要关心祖父故土上的大选，为什么要关心美国其他地区西班牙裔的现状。

    迪士尼首席执行官鲍勃•伊格尔曾在一次股东电话会议上被问到传言的Univision交易，当时，他拒绝置评。“我过去也说过，美国广播公司是一个平台，我们将继续从内容角度进行投资，而新闻网是这个平台中很重要的一部分，”他说。“而且，我们希望看到新闻网取得成功，给它机会，自行寻找、创造发展的机遇。”

    如今的美国广播公司新闻网已徒有其表，随着越来越多的美国人通过互联网等其他渠道获取新闻，它的收视率大幅下降。新闻网的高管们上下求索，希望能向其注入“新的活力”。不幸的是，他们的解决之道只是迎合低级趣味，以吸引更多观众。因此，“色情片男星取悦女性之道”这样的报道更可能成为美国广播公司旗舰新闻栏目《夜线》（Nightline）的头条，而不是“无聊的”严肃新闻话题。看来美国广播公司新闻网快玩完了。

    迪士尼如果聪明，就该趁早了断。来自美国广播公司的协同效应（如果还有的话）极少，随着收视率持续下降，预计未来美国广播公司的广告收入还将继续下降。努力降低成本，继续制作人们喜闻乐见的优秀节目，这两点ABC娱乐和ABC 新闻的高管们忙了十年也没有做到，没理由相信他们未来就一定能做好。

    老牌电视网不可能重新获得过去那样的收视率，如今消费者有太多的信息和娱乐选择。如果迪士尼找不到买家，它总是能以免税分拆的方式将美国广播公司剥离给它的股东们。这样，股东们就有机会决定是想继续把它留在资产组合中，还是将它坚决抛弃。如果估值适当，美国广播公司依然值得持有。但目前，它似乎拉低了迪士尼的估值，妨碍了股东们实现强劲利润的梦想。

    That seems like a risky bet built on a false premise. All the other 24-hour cable news networks are divided across the ideological spectrum, with News Corp's (NWS) Fox News catering to conservatives, Time Warner's CNN catering to moderates and Comcast and Microsoft's MSNBC appealing to liberals (Fortune is owned by Time Warner (TWX)). It is unclear why a Hispanic-American, who speaks English, would care about elections back in their grandparent's homeland or about other Hispanic-Americans in other parts of the country.

    When asked about the reported Univision deal, Disney CEO Bob Iger declined to comment during a call with shareholders. "I've said before that ABC is a platform that we continue to invest in from a content perspective, and ABC News is a very important part of that platform," he said. "And we have an interest in seeing that ABC News continues to flourish and giving it an opportunity to look for and create some growth opportunities on its own."

    ABC News is but a shell of what it used to be and its ratings have plummeted as more Americans get their news from other mediums, like the internet. Executives inside ABC News are being shuffled around in an attempt to breathe "new life" into the news division. The answer, unfortunately, has been to appeal to the lowest common denominator in a cheap attempt to lure in viewers. So stories like "how male porn stars are trying to cater to women," are more likely to lead the network's iconic news daily Nightline than a hard news topic considered "boring." The end seems near.

    Disney would be smart to just cut the cord before it is too late. It derives very little, if any, synergies from ABC and ad revenue is expected to fall going forward as viewership continues to drop off. Attempts to cut costs while maintaining quality programming that people want to watch has eluded ABC entertainment and ABC News executives for a decade, and there is no reason to believe that they will ever get it right.

    The old mainline broadcast giants simply cannot capture the viewership they once could due to the plethora of information and entertainment choices now available to consumers. If Disney cannot find a buyer, it could always spinoff ABC to its shareholders in a tax-free spinoff. That would give shareholders the opportunity to decide whether they want to keep ABC as part of their portfolios or dump it. At the right valuation, ABC could be worth owning. But for now, it seems to be dragging Disney's valuation down - preventing shareholders from having their dreams of strong profits come true.