火爆的中国楼市及其对全球经济的影响一直受到投资者的广泛关注，而且这种关注在情理之中。

    1月份，巴克莱（Barclays）发布了最新的摩天大楼指数（Skyscraper Index）报告，解析过去140年来摩天大楼的兴建与经济泡沫破裂之间的关联。这种关联可能纯属巧合，但指数显示，如今的东亚巨人——中国是全球“最大的泡沫制造国”，并正在走向泡沫破裂。中国目前已经拥有全球现有摩天大楼（即高度超过240米的高楼）的一半以上，未来几年还将新建更多摩天大楼。

    但是，别对这个指数过度解读。没错，正如巴克莱所指，美国大萧条（the Great Depression）的时间与曼哈顿地区三幢地标性摩天大楼的建造时间一致：华尔街40号大厦（40 Wall Street，现名为川普大厦——译注）于1929年完工，克莱斯勒大厦（Chrysler Building）于1930年建成，帝国大厦（Empire State Building）于1931年落成。

    毫无疑问，中国房价飞涨，已经超出了国内中产阶层的负担能力。而且，有理由相信，在中国经济将面临严峻挑战的2012年，房价肯定会下跌，但楼市绝不会崩盘。原因如下：

中国是储蓄大国

    导致美国楼市崩溃的部分原因是零首付。虽然将美国楼市与中国楼市相提并论有些牵强，但值得指出的是，中国家庭的负债比率远低于美国。

    众所周知，中国人热衷存钱，对负债较为敏感，部分原因是由于中国没有西方国家那样健全的教育和医疗保障体系。

    此外，试图遏制房价快速上涨势头的中国政府已经直接对购房者（和炒房者）设置了限贷措施。中国政府规定，第一套房最低首付三成，第二套房最低首付六成。

    2010年，中国住宅销售总额4.4万亿元人民币（约6,970亿美元）。但据摩根大通（JP Morgan）2011年11月发布的中国住宅市场研究报告称，按揭贷款余额远低于这一水平，仅为1.4万亿人民币（约2,220亿美元）。

    “因此，按揭贷款违约的可能性相当低，”分析师们表示，并称，即便假设房价狂跌30%，按揭贷款的质量“依然可靠”。

太多需求仍未得到满足

    西方国家拥有大量投资渠道来吸纳投资者的资金，相比之下，大多数中国人认为相对安全的投资品种只有房地产等少数几个选择。总部位于上海的中国市场研究集团（China Market Research Group）董事总经理雷小山表示，随着中国居民的收入增加以及越来越多的农村人口进入城市（1月份，中国城镇人口数量在中国历史上首次超过农村），住房需求预计将继续保持强劲。

    China's hot property market and its implications on the global economy has been on the minds of many investors, and for good reason.

    In January, Barclays published its latest Skyscraper Index report, which tracks links between the rise in construction of tall buildings and economic busts over the past 140 years. This could be purely coincidental, but the index suggests that the East Asian giant is the world's "biggest bubble builder," and is on its way to an economic bust. China already has half of the world's existing skyscrapers (or buildings higher than 240 meters). And it plans to add more over the next several years.

    However, let's not read into this too much. It's true, as Barclays notes, that the Great Depression coincided with the construction of three landmark skyscrapers across Manhattan: 40 Wall Street completed in 1929, followed by the Chrysler Building in 1930, and the Empire State Building in 1931.

    No doubt, China's property prices have risen rapidly beyond the reach of much of the country's middle class. And there's reason to believe prices will certainly slide during what's expected to be a rocky economic year, but prices won't crash. Here's why:

China's nation of savers

    It was the no-money-down mentality that partly brought down America's housing market. While it would be a stretch to compare the U.S. market to China's, it's worth noting that our neighbors to the East are nowhere near as leveraged.

    China is known as a nation of savers, and consumers are relatively debt-wary, in part because the country doesn't have the kind of educational and health care safety nets that its Western neighbors enjoy.

    What's more, Chinese officials trying to clamp down on rapidly rising prices have directly placed limits on how much homebuyers (and speculators) can borrow. For primary-home buyers, the government has set a minimum down payment of 30% of the home's total sale price while buyers of second homes must put down at least 60%.

    In 2010, a total of 4.4 trillion renminbi (or about $697 billion) of residential buildings were sold in China. However, mortgage loans outstanding were far less, at 1.4 trillion renminbi (or $222 billion), according to a JP Morgan November 2011 report on China's housing market.

    "As a result, the probability of mortgage default is quite low," analysts say, adding that the quality of mortgage loans will "remain solid" even under the hypothetical scenario that home prices drop by 30%.

There's plenty of pent-up demand

    While the Western world has plenty of available options for investors to park their money, housing is considered one of the few relatively safe investments to most Chinese. As incomes rise and as more of the country's population is expected to move into urban areas (in January, China's urban population surpassed that of its rural areas for the first time in the country's history), demand for housing is expected to remain robust, says Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research Group, a Shanghai-based market research firm.

    而且，需求不只是来自不断壮大的中产阶层，还来自于富豪阶层。随着中国收紧购房贷款政策，很多投资者已转向国外。雷小山指出，由于中国投资者大批买入加拿大、美国加州等地住宅，世界其他一些地区也有房地产泡沫形成。

    塔夫斯大学（Tufts University）下属全球商学院（Institute for Business in the Global Context）的常务主任巴思卡•查克勒佛提称，即使中国房价大跌20%，也不太可能引发灾难，毕竟过去房价涨得太快了。房价下跌将为那些一年前、甚至几个月前还买不起房的人们提供了买入的机会（想想中国人数多达约3亿的中产阶层）。

    “从根本上讲，这是一个很有深度的市场，”查克勒佛提近日在纽约出席彭博中国研讨会Bloomberg Link China并在中国房地产市场小组讨论上发言后表示。

中国政府不会让楼市崩盘

    中国中央政府向来善于对经济进行适时的微调。政府察觉到房价上涨过快后已经收紧了贷款政策。因此，我们看到的房价下跌正是政府所乐于见到的，是中国政府楼市调控方案的一部分，目的是为楼市降温，让更多中国人买得起房。

    但摩根大通指出，问题是随着楼市投资放缓，中国官员的楼市调控政策还会持续多久？该行预计未来一年半，中国全国房价可能下跌5%至10%；过去房价上涨过快的地区（该行指出，2007-2010年间，中国35个大城市的平均房价涨了82%），预计房价下跌幅度将高达20%。

    “这可能会减缓中国经济增速，但不会导致硬着陆，”摩根大通分析师们表示。

    摩根大通去年11月的报告指出，如果要从全局来看中国的房价泡沫问题，需要指出的是，中国主要城市的房价增速显著快于国内其他地区，这一点很重要。而且，大城市在全国房地产市场所占的份额相对较小。举例来说，2011年大部分时候，北京、上海和广东的房地产投资总额只占到全国的16%，房地产销售额占比达到20%，销售面积占比也只有10%。

    因此，在地区房价引发全国楼市崩盘之前，中国政府有足够的时间来调整政策。

    The demand, however, isn't just coming from the growing middle class but also the very rich. With tighter lending rules placed on Chinese buyers at home, many investors have gone abroad. Rein points to the formation of property bubbles in other parts of the world, as Chinese investors buy up homes in places such as Canada and California.

    Even if home prices fall by 20% in China, it's unlikely that would spell disaster given that prices had surged so rapidly, says Bhaskar Chakravorti, executive director of Tufts University's Institute for Business in the Global Context. Lower prices would offer an opening to those who couldn't afford to buy a year or a few months ago (think about the 300 million middle class Chinese).

    "Fundamentally, it's a deep market," says Chakravorti, after speaking recently on a panel about China's property market at the Bloomberg Link China conference in New York City.

The government won't let prices crash

    China's central government has been known to tweak its economy as it goes. When officials saw property prices rising too rapidly for its tastes, it tightened lending rules. So the declines we have seen are welcome and are part of the government's plans to cool down its hot real estate market, making it more affordable for more Chinese to buy property.

    The tricky part is in knowing how long officials adjust housing policies as the real estate market slows, according to JP Morgan. The bank adds that over the next year and a half, prices could fall 5% to 10% at the national level. At the regional level, where prices have risen much more rapidly ((it notes prices surged an average of 82% between 2007 to 2010 in 35 major Chinese cities), prices are expected to fall by 20%.

    "This will likely slow the pace of economic growth but not lead to a hard landing," say JP Morgan's analysts.

    To put China's property bubble in context, it's important to note that prices in major cities have risen much faster than the rest of the country, according to JP Morgan's November report. And major cities make up a relatively small portion of the national housing market. For instance, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong's markets combined account for 16% of total real estate investment, 20% of the buildings sold (in value), and 10% of the floor space sold for the majority of 2011.

    So before home prices at the regional level trigger a national market crash, the Chinese government should have enough time to change its game.