摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）看到了中国市场的光明前景：衣着考究的中国男女人手一部iPhone。

    凯蒂•休伯蒂在周日致客户的一份报告中援引摩根士丹利的AlphaWise调查，描绘了苹果（Apple）不负众望，最终与中国移动（China Mobile）和中国电信（China Telecom）达成交易后，中国大陆智能手机市场的“钱途”。AlphaWise的调查反映了中国迅速壮大的中产阶层的购买模式。

    休伯蒂的观点如下：

    • 目前中国大约有1.5亿高端移动用户，其每月话费至少为100人民币（16美元）。

    • 目前，苹果在中国的唯一官方运营商、中国联通（China Unicom）拥有1,500万高端用户，约占中国高端用户总数的十分之一。

   • 今年年底或明年初，苹果将开始通过中国移动（拥有1.2亿高端用户）和中国电信（拥有1,500万高端用户）销售新一代iPhone。

    • 五分之一的中国联通高端用户购买了iPhone，而其它两家运营商的用户预计也会步他们的后尘。（8%的中国移动高端用户已经在使用iPhone，虽然他们仅仅只能使用2G业务。）

    • 假设市场渗透率为20%，那么到2013年，苹果至少能多卖出2,400万部iPhone，使该公司的每股收益增长6.5美元。

    • 随着iPhone日益流行和（中国）中产阶级队伍的不断壮大，到明年，苹果iPhone的销售增量有望继续上升，达到近4,000万部，为其每股收益再添砖加瓦10美元。

    Morgan Stanley has seen the future and it's a well-heeled Chinese man (or woman) with an iPhone.

    In a note to clients Sunday, Katy Huberty drew on Morgan Stanley's proprietary AlphaWise survey of buying patterns among China's rapidly growing middle class to paint a picture of the smartphone market on the mainland after Apple (AAPL), as widely expected, finally signs deals with China Mobile (CHL) and China Telecom (CHA).

    She assumes:

    • That there are roughly 150 million high-end subscribers in China currently paying at least RMB 100 ($16) per month for mobile phone service.

    • That China Unicom (CHU), currently Apple's only official carrier, has 15 million of those subscribers, or roughly 10%.

    • That late this year or early next, Apple will begin selling next-generation iPhones through China Mobile (120 million high-end subscribers) and China Telecom (15 million).

    • That because 20% of China Unicom's high-end subscribers buy iPhones, the other two carriers' subscribers will follow suit. (8% China Mobile's high-end customers already use iPhones, even though they get only 2G service.)

    • Assuming 20% penetration, Apple should see, at a minimum, 24 million addition iPhone sales in 2013, adding $6.5o per share to the company's bottom line.

    • As the iPhone catches on and the middle class expands, that number could grow to nearly 40 million next year, adding $10 to Apple's earnings per share.

    • 休伯蒂表示，最终，iPhone在中国市场的渗透率有望达到美国电话电报公司（AT&T）的水平，即63%的智能手机用户都在使用iPhone。

     • 根据摩根士丹利描绘的最好的情况，苹果在几年之内，单单在中国市场，就能一年多卖出5,700万部iPhone的销量。

    相较之下，苹果2011财年全球的iPhone销量也只有6,850万部，其中还包括了苹果在去年10月发布的新款iPhone 4S，后者仅在一个季度就售出了3,700万部（超过了iPhone全年销量的一半）。

    译者：项航

    • Eventually, says Huberty, the iPhone in China will reach penetration levels comparable to those of AT&T (T), where 63% of smartphone customers currently choose iPhones.

    • In Morgan Stanley's bull case scenario, Apple within a couple of years will be selling an additional 57 million iPhones per year in China alone.

    To put that in perspective, Apple sold 68.5 million iPhones worldwide in fiscal 2011, although with the launch of the iPhone 4S in October it sold more than half that many (37 million) in just one quarter.