财富的尴尬

    全世界的汽车厂商都明白，能否攫取更大的市场份额、甚至仅仅只是保住目前的市场份额，在很大程度上取决于车型更新换代的速度，而且他们确实动真格了。

    美银美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）分析师约翰•墨菲每年一度的研究报告《汽车战》（Car Wars）吸引了大量读者。墨菲指出，1991年到2011年间，汽车行业平均每年会对16%的车型进行更新换代。但到了2012车型年（从2011年10月1日开始），汽车业的换代率却跃升到了23%，2013车型年还会达到惊人的32%。

    过去20年里，美国消费者每年可选择的新车平均有38款，但从今年开始，在接下来四年里，他们可选择的新车达到了平均每年46款。

    当然，这些新车型各有千秋，各大厂商的行动速度也有快有慢。以下我们谨对各大厂商的行动做一个简单的分析，并列出他们最热的几款车型。

An embarrassment of riches

    Manufacturers around the world have learned that gaining -- or even holding -- market share is largely dependent on how often they turn over their fleets, and they have taken the lesson to heart.

    According to John Murphy of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, author of the widely followed annual "Car Wars" study, the industry replaced 16% of its fleets annually between 1991-2011. But the replacement rate jumps to 23% for the 2012 model year, which began Oct. 1, and then surges to an extraordinary 32% for the following year.

    While customers got to choose among an average of 38 new models every year for the past two decades, they will see some 46 new offerings coming their way every year for the next four.

    All new models aren't created equal, of course, and some automakers are moving faster than others. Herewith, an analysis of the activity by each automaker with a guide to its hottest models.

通用汽车

    墨菲指出，通用汽车（General Motors）的新车发布速度将略快于行业平均水平，这个速度足以将通用汽车的美国市场份额稳定在当前19.7%的水平。通用的重磅新品是即将发布的新一代全尺寸皮卡和SUV，比如雪佛兰西维拉多（Chevy Silverado）和凯迪拉克攀登者（Cadillac Escalade）。另外两款重要的轿车——雪佛兰英帕拉（Impala）和迈锐宝（Malibu）也将上市。此外还有两款针对豪车用户的凯迪拉克也将上市，它们是尺寸较小的ATS和较大的XTS。

General Motors

    The General will be launching new models at a slightly more aggressive rate than the industry average. Fast enough, Murphy figures, for it to stabilize its U.S. market share at its current level of 19.7%. The big news will be the launch of the next generation of full-size pickups and SUVs like the Chevy Silverado and Cadillac Escalade. Two important sedans, Chevy's Impala and Malibu, are also coming. Luxury customers will be watching for a pair of new Cadillacs: the smaller ATS and thelarger XTS.

福特汽车

    为了在近年来增长迅速的跨界车市场占有一席之地，福特（Ford Motor）推出了几款跨界车型，比如翼虎（Escape）和上图中的C-Max，并且提供了汽油和油电混合动力等多种动力配置。基于福特金牛（Taurus）轿车研发的福星（Fusion）轿车，是自金牛以来福特最成功的一款轿车，而新款福星也经过了彻底的改版。福特的子品牌林肯（Lincoln）也有了脱胎换骨的变化。从圣诞节前流传出的新MKZ的谍照上可以看出，林肯的设计方向有了惊人的变化。墨菲指出，福特的市场份额也将稳定在17%左右。

Ford Motor

    Ford has ticketed a number of crossovers -- think Escape and C-Max (pictured) -- with a variety of gasoline and gas-electric powertrains for delivery to showrooms to compete in this fast-growing segment. The Fusion, Ford's most successful sedan since the original Taurus, has been completely revamped as well. Lincoln, meanwhile, gets a top-to-down makeover. Sneak peeks at the new MKZ before Christmas revealed a startling new design direction. Murphy figures that Ford, like GM, will see its market share stabilize -- at around 17%.

克莱斯勒（Chrysler）

    在塞尔吉奥•马基奥尼的领导下回归的克莱斯勒（Chrysler）很难重现2012车型年的风光。墨菲也指出，克莱斯勒的换代率将低于行业平均水平。好在随着克莱斯勒吸收了菲亚特（Fiat）的生产工艺，其产品线将逐渐向小型车倾斜，而小型车一直以来都是克莱斯勒的软肋。即将上市的道奇达特（Dodge Dart）是一款采用了旧名字的新款紧凑型车，它将填补多年前停产的霓虹（Neon）轿车离去后的空白。道奇达特将于明年一月份在底特律展出，但克莱斯勒已经开始提前发布它的促销图片（如图）。

Chrysler

    Sergio Marchionne's comeback carmaker will be hard pressed to repeat 2012's gains, and indeed Murphy figures its replacement rate will come below the industry average. In Chrysler's favor: As Fiat engineering takes hold, its product mix will increasingly be skewed toward small cars -- long a Chrysler weakness. A new compact sedan with an old name -- Dodge Dart -- will fill the hole left by the long-departed Neon. Chrysler has been releasing teaser pictures (pictured) in advance of the Dart's unveiling in Detroit in January.

丰田（Toyota）

    丰田（Toyota）在遭受了地震、海啸和洪水的连番打击后，再次开始发力。丰田最早推出的跨界车型RAV4又迎来了一次升级，此外雷克萨斯（Lexus）的大排量ES轿车也迎来了升级换代。丰田的北美销售公司Scion也发布了一款与斯巴鲁（Subaru）合作研发的后驱轿跑（如图），另外普锐斯（Prius）增添了一款插电式车型。新款亚洲龙（Avalon）也让经销商们垂涎不已。不过墨菲指出，总体看来，丰田和其它日本厂商的产品换代率开始放缓，已经接近于行业平均水平。

Toyota

    Battered by earthquakes, tsunamis, and floods, Toyota is stepping on the gas. Its RAV4, the original crossover, gets an update, as well as the ES, Lexus's high-volume sedan. Scion launched a rear-drive sports car developed with Subaru (pictured), Prius adds a plug-in, and dealers have been drooling over the new Avalon. Overall though, Murphy sees Toyota and other Japanese automakers slowing their rate of product replacement closer to the rest of the industry.

本田

    2012款本田思域（如图）上市后口碑很差，这让日本第二大汽车厂商本田（Honda）深受打击。因此，2013款雅阁（Accord）承担了更大的风险。但本田并没有放缓脚步。本田对整个讴歌（Acura）生产线进行了改进，而且对超过三分之一的车型都进行了更新，以决战2013车型年。不过在此之后，本田的换代率有了明显下降，可能很难压住最近奋起直追的日产（Nissan）公司。

Honda

    The number-two Japanese automaker got scalded by the reception to its uninspired 2012 Civic (pictured), and the stakes will be even higher for the 2013 Accord. But Honda isn't braking. The whole Acura line is being revamped, and the automaker is replacing more than a third of its product line for the 2013 model year. After that, Honda's replacement rate drops off markedly, and it may have a hard time holding off hard-charging Nissan.

日产

    日产汽车的CEO卡洛斯•高森为该公司定下的目标是到2015年获得美国市场10%的份额，而今年日产在美份额只有8.2%。为了实现这个目标，日产对近半数的车型都进行了更新换代，以便迎接2013车型年。四门版和两门版的Altima（即蓝鸟的北美款）、森特拉（Sentra，即阳光的北美款）以及探路者（Pathfinder）跨界车都将迎来升级。同时，日产聆风（Leaf）全电动汽车（如图）还需要尽力避免雪佛兰Volt电动汽车的种种缺点。

Nissan

    CEO Carlos Ghosn has driven a stake in the ground for Nissan: reach 10% U.S. market share by 2015 vs. 8.2% this year. In pursuit of that goal, Nissan is replacing nearly half its product line for the 2013 model year. Due for updates are the Altima sedan and coupe, Sentra sedan, and Pathfinder crossover. Meanwhile Nissan's all-electric Leaf (pictured) will try to dodge the potholes that have crippled Chevy's Volt.

大众汽车

    大众汽车（Volkswagen）是2011年的大赢家之一。今年，大众公司40年来首度将注意力投向美国市场。大众在美发布了两款成功的车型——帕萨特（Passat，如图）和捷达（Jetta），而大众在美国市场上的份额也从3.1%上升到了3.5%。不过大众汽车未来可能很难继续保持这种势头。墨菲的分析表明，在2013车型年，只有两款掀背车会加入大众的产品线，而新一代途观（Tiguan）要等到2014年才能上市。

Volkswagen

    VW was one of 2011's big success stories. Paying attention to the U.S. market for the first time in 40 years, the German automaker launched two successful sedans -- the Passat (pictured) and the Jetta -- and saw its share grow to 3.5% from 3.1% It will be difficult to maintain the momentum going forward. Murphy's analysis shows only two small hatchbacks joining VW's mix in 2013, and a redo of the Tiguan scheduled for 2014.

现代/起亚

    现代/起亚（Hyundai/Kia）是2011年的另一个大明星，不过它的换代率也有所减速。现代/起亚今年攫取了9%的美国市场份额，销量几乎超越了本田。但它明年的产品换代率只有13%，仅为行业平均水平的一半。现代的两款跨界车——中型的圣达菲（Santa Fe）和全尺寸的维拉克斯（Veracruz，如图）即将迎来升级，同样即将升级的还有起亚的小型跨界车Rondo。

Hyundai/Kia

    Another 2011 star is also easing off the gas. Hyundai/Kia grabbed 9% of the market this year, nearly passing Honda in the process, but its average replacement rate of 13% going forward is only half the industry average. Hyundai's two crossovers, the mid-size Santa Fe and full-size Veracruz (pictured) are getting makeovers, as does Kia's small crossover, the Rondo.

宝马

    宝马公司（BMW）在过去11个月里迎来了大丰收，它的销量超过了雷克萨斯，而且在豪车销量竞赛中还暂时领先于老对手梅赛德斯-奔驰（Mercedes）。2013车型年度有望成为宝马历史上有一个里程碑式的年份，因为宝马届时将发布第6代宝马3系轿车（如图），而3系占到了宝马汽车在美销量的一半以上。新宝马3系搭载了具有节油技术的新一代直列四缸发动机，而且它还具有一部分从更高档的车型移植而来的功能，如车道偏离警告系统、夜视功能和自适应巡航控制等。

BMW

    The past eleven months have been halcyon ones for BMW, which passed Lexus and was leading Mercedes in the race for luxury sales supremacy. The 2013 model year promises to be another milestone year as BMW launches the sixth generation of the 3-series that accounts for more than half its sales in the U.S. (pictured). Powered by a new generation of four-cylinder engines with fuel-saving technology, the 3 will possess features trickled down from more expensive models like line-departure warning, night vision, and adaptive cruise control.

梅塞德斯-奔驰

    梅塞德斯-奔驰公司继2011年发布了改款奔驰C级轿车和M级中尺寸SUV后，又将于2012年推出全尺寸的GL SUV和SL跑车（如图）。这款跑车体积虽小，但却分外引人注目。据说奔驰有望于2013年向美国市场推出改款的B级小型轿车，乃至体积更小的A级轿车，这才是明年的重头戏。汽车市场争夺战永远没有结束的一天，即便是像梅塞德斯-奔驰这样历史悠久的公司，也必须不断适应市场瞬息万变的需求。

    译者：朴成奎

Mercedes-Benz

    Following 2011's arrival of the revamped C-class sedan and M-class mid-size SUV, 2012 brings the GL full-size SUV and the SL roadster (pictured) -- a car tiny in volume but huge in visibility. The big news breaks in 2013 when the small B-class sedan and even smaller A-class cars are expected in the U.S. Car wars are never-ending, and even a long-established manufacturer like Mercedes has to keep adapting to the ever-changing demands of the market.