47岁的广东商人张顺林（音译）一年到头都在说圣诞节和感恩节，但并不了解它们的来历。他认为，感恩节是“西方人感谢上帝赐福”的宗教节日，而圣诞节就像是中国的春节。

    但他非常清楚这两个节日在生意上的重要性。张顺林与姐姐和姐夫在广东省（中国60%的出口玩具都是在这个南方省份制造的）经营一家玩具厂和一家批发商店。他说，这个节日季节并没有带给他多大的欣喜。源自美国客户的订单较去年锐减了25%。他做生意以来第一次拒绝了几个长期订单，原因是原材料成本飙涨，而且遵守他所称的美国“不合理的”法律也大幅提升了经营成本。他的姐姐和姐夫明年都不打算干了。

    面临困境的不止张顺林一个人。《广州日报》（the Guangzhou Daily）最近刊发的一篇文章认为，对于中国玩具制造商而言，这个圣诞节是“史上最糟糕的”。政府官方的统计数据显示，第三季度，出口至美国和欧洲的礼品和玩具较去年同期下降了20%，这两个市场通常占总出口量的一半以上。在2011年的广交会（Canton Fair 2011）上，来自美国的玩具订单较去年下降了24%。作为中国最大的贸易博览会，广交会一直扮演着中国出口行业领头羊的角色。

    因全球经济不确定性而出现的需求疲软、棉花等原材料价格的不断攀升等等因素当然是第三季度玩具市场不景气的原因。但政府官员和制造商认为，人民币升值以及因遵守美国和欧盟严苛的安全标准而产生的高额成本才是加剧玩具行业困境、迫使许多企业倒闭的罪魁祸首。

利润空间收窄

    中国大多数玩具厂商都是所谓的“原始设备制造商（OEM）”，它们生产的出口产品均贴有某家外国公司的标签。江苏玩具制造商杨春梅（音译）说，为了保持竞争力，玩具厂商都把利润率控制在2%到3%这个区间内。她说：“人民币升值，以及为遵守相关法规而导致的额外成本，有可能完全吞掉我们的利润。”

    杨春梅的工厂专营12种毛绒玩具和玩具车。她说，由于来自美国大型零售商的大宗订单源源不断，她的处境要比张顺林稍微好一点。然而，跟去年相比，她的利润已经下降了15%以上，部分原因在于，人民币今年又升值了2.5%。2005年以来，在华盛顿的重压之下，人民币已升值了约30%。

    对于中国玩具行业来说，美国国会于2008年8月份通过的法规无异于雪上加霜。此前，中国产玩具因油漆含铅量严重超标而导致了数起召回事件。这项法律要求玩具制造商和供应商分三个阶段减少儿童（12岁以下）玩具表面涂层的铅含量，并且要求其产品必须经过具备资质的独立实验室的检验和认可。

    Zhang Shunlin, a 47-year-old businessman from China's southern province of Guangdong, talks about Christmas and Thanksgiving year round but has no idea of their origins. He thinks Thanksgiving is a religious holiday when "Westerners thank the blessings of God" and Christmas is just like the Chinese New Year.

    But he knows their commercial significance all too well. Zhang operates a toy factory and a wholesale store with his sister and brother-in-law in Guangdong province, where 60% of China's exported toys are made. He says this holiday season has not brought much joy. Orders from his U.S. clients have plummeted 25% from last year. For the first time, he had to decline several long-term orders because of the soaring cost of raw materials and implementing what he calls America's "unreasonable" laws. His sister and brother-in-law are planning to leave the business next year.

    Zhang isn't alone. The Guangzhou Daily recently called this Christmas "the worst" for Chinese toymakers. In the third quarter, the official government statistics show that gifts and toys exported to the U.S. and Europe, which normally make up more than half of the total export volume, fell 20% from last year. At the recent Canton Fair 2011, the largest trade fair in China and a bellwether for China's export volumes, transaction orders in toys from the U.S. decreased by 24% from last year.

    Weak demand from global economic uncertainty and rising prices of raw materials like cotton certainly contributed to a sluggish third quarter. But government officials and manufacturers blame a stronger Chinese currency and the high cost of complying with stringent safety standards imposed by the U.S. and EU for compounding the problems and forcing them out of business.

Profit margin squeeze

    The majority of Chinese toy producers are original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), which make products that are sold abroad under a foreign company's label. In order to stay competitive, they make profit margins as low as 2% to 3%, says Yang Chunmei, a toy manufacturer in the southeast Jiangxu province. "The currency appreciation and any additional costs that have gone into regulatory compliance have the potential to completely wipe out our profits," she says.

    Yang specializes in 12 kinds of plush toys and mini-cars. She says the steady stream of orders from large-volume orders from big U.S. retailers have put her in a slightly better position than Zhang. However, compared with last year, her profits have decreased more than 15% partially because the yuan has gained another 2.5% this year. Since 2005, under pressure from Washington, the yuan has risen about 30%.

    Adding to their troubles are regulations passed by Congress in August 2008, after several recalls of China-made toys containing excessive levels of lead paint. The law requires toy manufacturers and suppliers to reduce in three phases the amount of lead contained in the surface coatings of children's toys (ages 12 and under) and have their products tested and certified in independent, accredited laboratories.

    “每个产品的油漆都需要经过三次检验，第一次是检验原材料，第二次是检验成品，然后客户自己还会再进行一次检验，”杨春梅说。培训、设备升级、采购新材料和多项测试等方面的开支已经将企业的经营成本推高了10%到15%。

    政府统计数据为杨春梅的说法提供了佐证。2011年上半年，中国玩具出口同比增长了31.5％，这主要应归功于亚洲和拉丁美洲的需求拉动。但中国玩具的出口值只增长了11.54％。

美国廉价玩具难以为继

    尽管中国政府一直积极回应美国新的安全要求，但他们也认为美国的反应过度，在中国官员看来，这是美方为应对国内就业压力而设置的一项技术贸易壁垒。“每当我们升级设备，改善安全标准，并满足了他们的要求之后，美国和欧盟就再次提高门槛。生产成本不断上升，严重伤害了中国出口行业，”国家标准化管理委员会（China's Standardization Administration）副主任方向在接受中央人民广播电台（China National Radio）采访时说。“我认为这些贸易壁垒不会保护美国人的就业机会，反而会伤害美国消费者的利益。”

    虽然全球玩具制造商都受到美国规则的影响，但世界80%的玩具源自中国。中国目前有2万家玩具制造商，雇佣了400多万名工人。

    中国市场研究集团（China Market Research Group）（总部位于上海）项目运营经理本杰明•卡文德尔认为，中国玩具行业在来年有可能重新洗牌。他说：“资金雄厚的大型专业公司将开始收购其他步履维艰的公司。”

    定价压力最终将挤压美国零售商和玩具制造商的盈利空间。“我们过去一直实行低价策略，是因为加价意味着失去客户，”杨春梅说。“但现在我们实在扛不住了，要么提价，要么拒绝订单。”

    因此，从中国制造商那里采购货物的美国品牌将不得不减少自身的利润，以维持生产。尽管这有可能导致一些生产环节重返美国，但卡文德尔强调指出：“大部分制造环节十有八九还会留在中国或亚洲其他国家。”

    迄今为止，美国消费者一直受惠于价格低廉的中国玩具。玩具产业协会（the Toy Industry Association）的数据显示，过去几年间，玩具的平均价格一直保持相对稳定，大约在8美元左右。但几乎没有人相信这种局面将延续下去。无论新法规是保护孩子的必要措施，还是反应过度，最终为此买单的将是美国消费者。

    译者：任文科

    "For the paint on each product, we do three tests - a test on the raw materials, another on the finished product and then the client will conduct their own test," Yang says, adding that costs for training, equipment upgrades, sourcing new materials and multiple testing have added 10% to 15% to her operating costs.

    Government statistics support Yang's claims. In the first half of 2011, toy exports rose by 31.5% year-over-year, mostly driven by demand in Asia and Latin America. But their export value rose only 11.54%.

U.S. prices

    Even though the Chinese government has been responsive to the new U.S. safety requirements, they also see it as an overreaction and a technical trade barrier in response to pressure to create more jobs in America. "Each time after we upgrade and improve our safety standards and meet their requirements, the U.S. and EU raise the bar again. The cost keeps going up and seriously harms China's toy export business," said Fang Xiang, deputy director of China's Standardization Administration during an interview with China National Radio. "I don't think these trade barriers will save any American jobs. Instead, they'll hurt American consumers."

    Although the U.S. rules impact toymakers globally, more than 80% of the toys sold around the world come from China. At present, there are 20,000 toy manufacturers in China, employing more than four million people.

    Benjamin Cavender, associate principal at the Shanghai-based China Market Research Group believes this will lead to consolidation in China in the coming year. "Big professional companies with deeper pockets will start to buy up other companies as they falter," he says.

    The pricing pressures will eventually pinch the profits of U.S. retailers and toymakers. "In the past, we kept our prices low because any increase would mean losing the customers," Yang says. "But now, we really can't afford it. We have to raise prices or turn down our orders."

    As a consequence, U.S. brands that are sourcing from manufacturers in China will have to reduce their own margins in order to maintain production. While this will likely lead to some manufacturing returning to the U.S., Cavender emphasizes that "in all likelihood the bulk of manufacturing is still going to come out of China or other Asian countries."

    So far, Americans consumers have benefited from the low prices of Chinese toys. According to the Toy Industry Association, the average price of toys has remained relative steady over the past few years, at around $8. But few believe this will last. Whether the new regulations are necessary safeguards to protect children or an overreaction, American consumers will eventually have to bear the cost.