比尔•盖茨是否正在酝酿着重返他创立的那家标志性公司？

    传奇创始人重返商场，匡扶步履蹒跚的公司早有先例。盖茨或许已注意到他的西雅图邻居霍华德•舒尔茨所取得的成功：这位《财富》杂志（Fortune)2011年度商界风云人物重返伤痕累累的星巴克公司（Starbucks），并成功地促使其再次崛起。此外，迈克尔•戴尔、史蒂夫•乔布斯和拉里•佩奇也有过王者归来、重振公司的经历。

    这同样也不是投资者第一次流露出这样的念头。今年年初，绿灯资本公司（Greenlight Capital）的维权投资人大卫•艾因霍恩曾公开表示，现任CEO史蒂夫•鲍尔默是拖累公司股价下跌的因素之一，从而引发了盖茨有可能回归的传闻。但在公开场合，盖茨对此的反应一直都很冷淡，并早在2010年的时候就曾予以驳斥。今年6月份，他在接受《每日邮报》（Daily Mail）采访时再次表示，比尔和梅林达•盖茨基金会（Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation）“是我现在的工作”（艾因霍恩拒绝接受本文作者的采访）。

    一位著名的CEO在接受《财富》采访时称，他从一位接近盖茨的人士那里听闻盖茨或许正在进行这样的考虑。对于盖茨本人而言，这当然是一个他未曾料到的大胆举动。但除此之外，微软公司（Microsoft ）能够从中获得什么收益呢？

    鲍尔默执掌微软的10年间，该公司股票的表现一直令人失望。在表现最好的1999年年底，微软每股股价接近60美元。当鲍尔默于2000年1月份接任CEO的时候，股价依然在50美元以上。随着科技股泡沫的破灭，微软的股价急剧下跌。除了2007年末曾短暂反弹至35美元以上，2008年金融危机期间跌破20美元大关之外，在这10年的大部分时间里，微软的股价都徘徊在25美元左右。在这10年间，鲍尔默将手头的大量股票变现，比尔•盖茨则逐渐退出了公司的日常运作（他最后一个完整的工作日是在2008年6月份）。在此期间，微软的股价一直波澜不兴，而甲骨文公司（Oracle）和苹果公司（Apple）等竞争对手的股价却大幅攀升。

    盖茨能否推动微软停滞不前的股价？有这种可能。CEO的人事变动往往会促使公司股价出现跨跃式改善，位于西雅图市的华盛顿大学福斯特商学院（Foster School of Business）院长、金融学教授加拉德•哈福德这样说道。哈福德认为，甚至在新的CEO真正接掌公司之前，投资者就预先判定管理层的更迭将提升公司股价（大约在一年以后，投资者就需要看到新上任的CEO留下的印记）。“史蒂夫•鲍尔默让许多投资者倍感失望，”里昂证券亚太市场部(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets）的埃德•马奎尔补充说。“有些不满情绪是有道理的，有些或许没有。但肯定有一种看法认为，鲍尔默需要为公司股价的表现不佳负责。”

    再者，创始人能够对员工队伍施加一种影响。哈福德认为，创始人往往具有额外的分量，可以不受约束地执行他们的设想。他援引了谷歌（Google）的例子：该公司创始人之一、现已接任CEO的拉里•佩奇正在“削减无价值的组织层级”，以恢复该公司的发展势头。里昂证券的马奎尔说，鲍尔默或许欠缺那种具有穿透力的大局观。他指出：“妇人之仁成不了大事。”虽然鲍尔默在管理无数的部门和数以千计的员工方面做得很好，但他缺乏乔布斯或盖茨这种人所能传达的某种诉求。

    Is Bill Gates mulling a comeback to the iconic company he founded?

    It wouldn't be the first time a legendary founder stepped back into the fray to right his faltering company. Perhaps Gates has noticed the success of his Seattle neighbor Howard Schultz, who returned to a badly bruised Starbucks (SBUX) only to help it surge. (Schultz was Fortune's 2011 Businessperson of the Year.) Michael Dell, Steve Jobs and Larry Page all pulled similar maneuvers.

    It wouldn't be the first time investors had flirted with the notion, either. Early this year, activist investor David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital publicly called current CEO Steve Ballmer a weight dragging down the company's share price, prompting the rumor that Gates might return. But Gates has been cool to the idea publicly, rebuffing it in 2010 and again this year in June, when he told the Daily Mail his work at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation "is my job now." (Einhorn declined to comment for this story.)

    One prominent chief executive told Fortune he'd heard from someone close to Gates that he might be considering such a move. Aside from an unexpected and bold final act for Gates, what could Microsoft (MSFT) gain from such a move?

    The company's stock price has been a thorn in Ballmer's side for a decade. At the end of 1999, Microsoft's best year for market price, shares were at almost $60. When Ballmer took over as chief executive in January 2000, the stock was still over $50. With the burst of the tech bubble, Microsoft's stock dropped steeply and hovered around $25 area through much of the decade, excepting a short rally above $35 in late-2007 and a dip under $20 during the 2008 financial crisis. Ballmer dumped much of his stock during the decade and Bill Gates gradually left daily operations. (Gates' last full day was in June 2008.) During that time, the stock stayed flat as competitors such as Oracle (ORCL) and Apple (AAPL) saw huge gains in their share price.

    Could Gates goose the moribund stock price? Possibly. Any CEO turnover tends to jumpstart improvement in a company's stock price, says Jarrad Harford, finance professor and chair at the University of Washington's Foster School of Business in Seattle. According to Harford, investors anticipate the company's value under new management even before the executive actually takes over. (New CEOs have about a year before his or her imprint needs to be visible to investors.) "There's a lot of frustration among investors with Steve Ballmer," adds Ed Maguire of CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. "Some is merited, some may not be. But there's certainly a perception that Ballmer is responsible for the under-performance of the stock."

    Then there's the effect a founder can have on the troops. Founders are generally free to execute their vision with added "gravitas," Harford argues. He points to Google (GOOG), where co-founder and again-CEO Larry Page is "cutting through the organizational muck" to restore the company's momentum. Ballmer might lack that incisive big-picture vision, says Maguire at CLSA. "You don't have the benevolent dictator," he notes, adding that while Ballmer handles the active management of myriad divisions and thousands of employees well, he's missing some of the messaging of a Jobs or Gates.

    盖茨的回归或许有助于提高微软传递讯息的效率，但哈福德指出，甚至苹果公司的史蒂夫•乔布斯也需要一位得力干将（现任CEO蒂姆•库克）帮助他处理公司日常的繁杂事务。目前还不清楚盖茨是否能留住他的“左膀右臂”鲍尔默，抑或找到一位替代人选。而且必须指出的是，盖茨在任职期间所阐述的愿景也不止一次地无疾而终。

    分析人士表示，无论是谁执掌微软，都将面前严峻的挑战——即便那个人是比尔•盖茨。鲍尔默执掌期间，微软在遭受灾难性的Windows Vista带来的打击之后，重新振作，成功地发布了Windows 7 操作系统。现在，该公司正积极筹备Windows 8系统，并希望将其应用于平板设备领域。但微软必须把开发商吸引到它的平台上，还要跟亚马逊（Amazon）、苹果和谷歌等公司一决雌雄。“创始人回归之后，帮助公司在特定市场迎头赶上的例子寥寥无几，” 艾维克合伙人公司(Evercore Partners)的柯克•蒙特尼警告说。他所在的公司为微软实施投资银行业务。“当微软还在市场上占据主导地位的时候，盖茨做得很不错。”蒙特尼警告说，即便是盖茨，也将面临挑战。

    哈福德和其他分析家认为，鲍尔默在微软的地位非常牢固，他依然是盖茨的密友。他们表示，最大的可能是，在该公司于2012年及以后推出新产品期间，鲍尔默将继续留任，至少要到2016年他满60岁的时候。微软的一位发言人指出，该公司并没有法定的退休年龄，而且确实制定了继任计划，但他不愿意透露具体的细节，也没有就盖茨回归一事发表评论。在马奎尔看来，微软的内部人士，Windows系统负责人史蒂文•西诺夫斯基或许最有可能成为CEO接班人——“他甚至穿了一件黑色的高翻领毛衣。”哈福德表示，无论继任计划何时实施，它都会跟盖茨当年单方面地把权杖交给好友鲍尔默的时候大不相同，因为公司的董事会将拥有更大的发言权。

    即使不可能，“假使盖茨回归，微软将会怎么样？”也是一个很有可能不断浮现的问题，特别是在微软股价长期低迷的情况下。但如果比尔•盖茨真的回归了，“我绝不会草率地认定他也无力回天，”蒙特尼说。有这种想法的或许并不只有他一人。

    译者：任文科

    Gates' return could help streamline Microsoft's message, but Harford notes that even Steve Jobs at Apple (AAPL) had current CEO Tim Cook at his side to handle the nitty-gritty. It's unclear whether Gates could keep his old right-hand man, Ballmer, or find a replacement. And, it must be noted that, during his tenure, Gates articulated more than one vision that went nowhere.

    Analysts say that whoever is in charge at Microsoft will face serious headwinds -- even Gates. Under Ballmer, the company picked itself up after the disastrous Windows Vista, launching Windows 7 successfully. Now, it is preparing Windows 8, which the company hopes will launch it into tablets. But it must draw developers to its platforms and duke it out with with Amazon (AMZN), Apple and Google. "There are very few examples of where returning founders had to come from behind in their certain market," warns Kirk Materne of Evercore Partners, which carries out investment banking services for Microsoft. "Gates was great at Microsoft when Microsoft was the dominant player." Even Gates, Materne warns, would face challenges.

    Analysts and Harford agree that Ballmer's position at Microsoft is well established, and he remains a close friend of Gates. It's most probably, they say, that Ballmer stays in charge as the company brings its new products to bear in 2012 and beyond, at least until Ballmer turns 60 in 2016. A Microsoft spokesman noted the company does not have a fixed retirement age and that the company does have a succession plan in place but would not provide details. (He declined to comment on a Gates return to the company.) Insider Steven Sinofsky, who heads up Windows, might be the company's best bet for a high-profile scion -- "he even wears the black turtlenecks," Maguire notes. Harford says that whenever the succession is, it will differ greatly from when Gates unilaterally passed control to his buddy Ballmer, as the board will have a much greater say.

    Even if unlikely, Gate's return is a "what if?" that's likely to have life, especially as long as the company's stock price languishes. But if he did return? "I wouldn't hasten to bet against Bill Gates," Materne says. He's probably not the only one.