“我过去曾经想如果有来生，我希望能当上美国总统、罗马教皇或一名击中率四成的棒球手。但现在我想成为债券市场，因为它可以吓唬住任何人。” ——美国民主党政策顾问詹姆斯•卡维尔

    来自欧洲的消息每况愈下。债务水平如此高涨，而对政府的信心却如此低迷，债券市场咔咔作响，欧洲政府惊慌失色。人们对于此类债券以及国家缩减开支并取得经济增长的信心跌至谷底，主权债券利率飙升（见下图）。

    这一切除了让初创企业家在浏览《华尔街日报》（The Wall Street Journal）时感到不那么舒服之外，还有什么价值？在此，我提三点建议：

    1. 做好准备，应对一切可能。我父亲过去一直告诉我：“不要臆断任何事情。”过去几个月，宏观经济形势的各种可能性都大增。我们进入了一个充满不确定性的时期，每个人都需要为空前开放的局面做好准备。经济能否挺过难关？我们能否避免经济二次探底？我们是进入了一场大范围的、五年期终局较量（去杠杆化，无增长）？如果高科技初创企业的主战场在云计算、电子商务、在线广告、移动服务等发展前景稳定的领域，它们能否安然无恙?

    没有人会知道，因此请为2012年制定一系列计划吧！这样，就可以根据客观的外部触发条件，实施不同的计划【《长远眼光的艺术》（The Art of the Long View）一书可以提供指导】。随时转备好这些方案，时机一到，马上付诸实施。

    2. 不能一直欠债不还。初创企业通常没有财务债（而且显然也不会达到某些主权国家债务那样的水平），但会有很多其他类型的债务，这些我们在日常生活中也能看到。例如：

    "I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everyone." --James Carville

    The news out of Europe just goes from bad to worse. With debt levels so high and confidence in government so low, the bond market has come a knocking and is intimidating the heck out of European governments. Interest rates on sovereign debt soar (see chart below) when the trust in the sanctity of that debt, and the country's ability to tighten their belt while growing out of it, plummet.

    What does all of this mean for entrepreneurs, other than a queasy feeling in your stomach when you read glance at The Wall Street Journal? I have three pieces of advice:

    1. Plan for Anything. My father used to always tell me, "don't assume anything." The range of possible macroeconomic scenarios has exploded in the last few months. We are entering a time of such uncertainty that one needs to be prepared for a far broader range of scenarios than ever before. Will the economy muddle through? Will we avoid a double dip? Are we entering a massive, 5-year EndGame of de-leveraging and no growth? Will high tech entrepreneurs be unaffected when they play in such massive secular growth areas, such as cloud, e-commerce, online advertising, mobile and others?

    No one knows, so develop a range of plans for 2012 with objective external triggers that would steer you towards one plan or the other – see The Art of the Long View for a guide on how to do this – and have them on the shelf ready to execute when the time is right.

    2. You Can't Fund a Big Debt Forever. Startups don't typically take on financial debt (and certainly not at the level of a sovereign government), but there are many other kinds of debt in a startup in particular and in life in general that one can find oneself in the midst of. For example:

    • 我的投资组合中，有家公司经常谈到“技术债”——即忙于满足眼前的客户需求，迟迟未能建立一个健全的平台，因此付出了代价。

    • 我喜欢电影《让爱传出去》（Pay it Forward）。这部电影完美地阐述了善待他人而不计个人得失的种种益处，鼓励人们“将爱传出去”。然而，如果在两个人的交往中这种善意过于单向，就会形成“关系债”。回顾我的人生，我觉得自己非常幸运。我遇到了很多伟大的导师，我希望我能给予他们足够的回报，不用欠下太多人情债。

    • 我的妻子和我经常和我们的孩子们探讨“行为债”——如果希望未来能从别人那里获得回报，必须把一些善意和善行存在“银行”里。（可以想象，像我这样的父母有多么招子女讨厌……）。

    • 如果一而再、再而三无法兑现数字或最后期限，就得承担“承诺债”。我的投资组合中，有家公司在宣布有望同一家财富50强公司建立合作关系的同时，却给出了这样的告诫：“但请记住，这家公司过去给我们的最后期限，从来没有兑现过哪怕一次。”我们开始做2012年规划时，一位董事私下懊恼地说：“这个计划听起来不错。但请记住，这家公司提交给我们的任何一个计划数字都从未兑现。”（给自己提个醒：一个人以“但是请记住…”开头的话不太可能是一个正面的评论。）

    3. 还债是痛苦的，而且要作出牺牲。还债永远都不是一件轻松的事，但往往是正确的选择。不幸的是，初创企业家谈到还债并不能总是底气十足。为了企业生存和取得现金流，往往只能欠上“技术债”。而如果无法取得兑现承诺所需资源，能否偿还承诺债就不在自己的控制范围内。明白了吧？

    我建议要有意识地（而不是无意识地）考虑欠债/还债问题。债务开始攀升时，要保持警惕。人们最不愿意看到的事是哪天晚上债主突然找上门，杀个措手不及。我说的没错吧，我们的华盛顿政府？

    Jeff Bussgang是风险投资公司Flybridge Capital Partner的普通合伙人。

    • One of my portfolio companies often talks about their "Technical Debt" – the notion that they paying the price for historically putting off building a robust platform in order to meet short-term customer needs.

    • I love the movie, Pay it Forward. It beautifully depicts the benefit of being nice to someone for no personal gain and then encouraging them to "pay it forward" to another party. If that kindness becomes too one-way between two parties, "Relationship Debt" can form. I often find myself reflecting on how luck I have been in my life to have had such great mentors and hope that I provide enough reciprocal relationship value to them so as to not be too deeply in debt to them.

    • My wife and I talk to our kids a lot about "Behavior Debt" – the notion that you have to deposit some kindness and good behavior "in the bank" if you want to get something in return from someone down the road (you can imagine how annoying a parent I must be…).

    • If you miss a number over and over again or a deadline, you build up "Commitment Debt." One of my portfolio companies gives the same caveat when reporting on the status of a promising partnership developing with a Fortune 50 company: "Remember, though, this is a company that has never hit a single deadline it's given us." At the start of the 2012 planning process, one of my fellow board members commented ruefully in the private session: "The plan sounds good. Remember, though, this is a company that has never hit a single plan number it's given us." (note to self: when someone starts a sentence with "Remember, though...", it's not likely to be a positive comment).

    3. Paying Off Debts Is Painful and Demands Sacrifice. It's never easy to step back and pay off your debts, but it is often the right course. Unfortunately, when you're an entrepreneur, you don't always find yourself in a position of strength when it comes to paying off debts. Going into "technical debt" is often required to survive and drive cash flow. Commitment debt can be out of your hands if you're never able to secure the necessary resources required to deliver on your commitments. You get the picture.

    I suggest you make these debt trade-off decisions consciously, not unconsciously, and keep an eye on those debts as they accumulate. The last thing you want is to find that debt roughly knocking on your door some night when you least expect it, or are in a position to handle it. Isn't that right, Washington DC?

    Jeff Bussgang is general partner at venture capital firm Flybridge Capital Partners. You can follow him on Twitter @bussgang