上周二，投资公司Jefferies的分析师彼得•米瑟克就其最近的日本之旅发布了一篇报告，科技博客AllThingsD的约翰•帕克兹沃斯基从中发掘出了最具有新闻价值的信息。

    次日，十多位写手纷纷跟进，附和帕克兹沃斯基报道【《苹果电视可能将于2012年2月进行商业化生产》（Apple Television Could Be Ready for Commercial Production by Feb. 2012）】，但他们的依据仅仅这篇报道的要点。

    然而，除了暗示苹果（Apple）可能在2012年年中推出电视机外，米瑟克的完整报告中还有很多信息。事实上，关于苹果电视的三句话是该报告中最含糊不清、猜测性质最强的内容。实际的报告如下：

    关于iTV，我们认为苹果将获取日本堺市的Gen 10工厂以生产升级版非晶态TFT液晶屏。我们还认为重组生产线的行动已经开始或者即将开始，因为将于明年2月开始商业化生产。所以，iTV最早将于2012年中期发布，这和我们关于iTV的其它推测相符。

    鉴于业界一直在热议苹果品牌电视的传闻，而且史蒂夫•乔布斯16个月前还亲自回答称“唯一的问题是走向市场”。我不敢十分肯定iTV将在2012年年中发布。

    那么，皮特•米塞克在日本到底打探到了哪些信息？米塞克称，最重要的收获是苹果已经投入巨资——高达10亿美元——至一家新的供应商【非常遗憾，不是三星（Samsung）】，以及一项新的显示屏技术以生产下一代iPad、iPhone。苹果将带来分辨率更高、续航时间更长，同时价格更低廉的显示屏，令其余竞争对手望尘莫及。具体信息本文引用如下：

    • 根据观察，我们认为苹果已将显示屏部分产能转移至夏普（Sharp），后者已成为苹果主要的面板供应商。我们还认为苹果已取得龟山Gen 6工厂的独家使用权，它将利用苹果购买的价值5亿至10亿美元的设备生产iPad 3和iPhone 5 LTE显示屏。

    • 我们认为两周前，iPad 3显示屏的制造工作已经开始，而它正是最近苹果供应链中诸多传闻的源头所在。

    • 我们认为苹果和夏普已合作研发出一种新型IGZO技术（加入了铟、镓、锌等金属）。利用该技术，显示屏分辨率将能达到330dpi（每平方英寸像素），足以满足高清晰显示屏的要求。它能替代目前的IPS硬屏（目前在iPhone 4、4S上使用的硬性液晶屏——译注），也无需再加配双LED背景灯。这项技术将带来很多优势：显示屏更加轻薄、续航时间将得到延长、用户的综合体验相应也有显著提高。

    Credit AllThingsD's John Paczkowski for finding the most headline-worthy nugget in the report issued Tuesday by Jefferies analyst Peter Misek on his recent trip to Japan.

    The thrust of Paczkowski's story -- Apple Television Could Be Ready for Commercial Production by Feb. 2012 -- was echoed Wednesday by more than a dozen writers who had only his brief item to rely on.

    But there's a lot more to Misek's full report that the suggestion that Apple (AAPL) could selling television sets by mid-2012. In fact, those three sentences are the note's vaguest and most speculative. The actual text:

    For iTV we believe that Apple will take a line at the Gen 10 Sakai facility and produce a modified version of the Amorphous TFT. We believe retooling of the line has begun or is about to begin at the facility with February as a preliminary time frame for commercial production. This would put an iTV launch as early as the middle of 2012, which aligns with our other iTV checks. [emphasis ours]

    Given how long rumors of an Apple-branded TV set have been floating around and the "fundamental go-to-market" problems Steve Jobs put his finger on 16 months ago, I wouldn't bet the farm on a mid-2012 launch.

    So what did Peter Misek learn in Japan? The "key takeaway," as he calls it, is that Apple has sunk a lot of money -- as much as a billion dollars -- into a new supplier (most pointedly, not Samsung) and new screen technologies to build the next generation of iPads and iPhones with resolutions, battery life and prices its competitors will be hard-pressed to match. I quote:

    • We believe Apple has shifted display production and that Sharp has now become a large panel supplier, based on our checks. We believe that the Gen 6 Kameyama facility has been exclusively taken over for Apple purposes with Apple purchasing $500M to $1B of equipment for the manufacturing of iPad 3 and iPhone 5 LTE displays.

    • We believe production of iPad 3 displays began two weeks ago and is the cause of much of the noise in the supply chain.

    • We believe that Apple and Sharp together have a modified IGZO (indium, gallium, zinc) technology to achieve 330 dpi, which is sufficient for an HD display while not using IPS nor having to include dual-bar LED backlighting. In our view, this should lead to several design advantages, namely the device can be thinner, battery life should be longer, and the overall experience for users should be meaningfully improved.

    • 我们认为苹果将利用龟山工厂生产其绝大部分iPad 3显示屏。苹果获取屏幕的价格可能比业界预计的要低，因为苹果的订单数额巨大，所以它极有可能压低市场价格。

    • 我们认为龟山工厂还将为iPhone 5 LTE提供显示屏。根据我们的研究，IGZO技术堪称完美，其能耗与OLED技术基本相同，但成本更低而厚度也仅比OLED屏厚25%。（OLED——有机发光二极管）

    • 我们认为即使iPad 3发售，苹果仍将继续生产iPad 2并将售价下调100至200美元。

    • 我们更进一步认为未来一两年，苹果和夏普将紧密合作开发适用于iPhone和iPad的OLED面板。这和大家此前认为在此期间三星铁定将与苹果就OLED进行合作的看法不大一样。事情转折点在于一项基于菊花字轮和喷墨打印机的新技术，能将OLED“打印”到薄膜，然后放置到玻璃上。OLED的产量因此将获得极大提升，而且目前已有多项基于该技术的OLED商用制造试验正在进行中。我们认为到2012年中期，夏普/苹果将建立生产线进行试产，正式投产有望在2013年开始。

    • 根据我们的研究，OLED技术最初只适用于小型和中型面板（例如iPad和iPhone）。适合iTV的面板可能要到2015年才出现。

    米塞克报告中关于iTV的部分也被广泛转载，称许多竞争对手“惊慌失措”地搜集iTV情报，以免再次被苹果的突然袭击打个“措手不及”。这种描述同样也适用于米瑟克在其日本之旅中看到的其它所有情况。

    注意：虽然米塞克将iPad 2012年第一季度的出货量由1,700万下调至1,400万，但他仍然认为关于iPad市场疲软的报道夸大其词。他表示下调预期的原因仅仅在于 “欧洲经济整体疲软以及缺乏运营商补贴。”

    译者：项航

    • We believe that Apple may use this facility for the vast majority of the iPad 3 displays. The price at which Apple will be able to procure these panels will be lower than expected as the capital commitment by Apple likely necessitates below market pricing in our view.

    • For the iPhone 5 LTE we also believe this new facility will be used to supply displays. The IGZO technology is perfect in that it offers near-OLED power consumption while having a lower cost and thinness that is only 25% greater than OLED, based on our checks. [OLED = Organic light-emitting diode]

    • Even after the iPad 3 launch, we believe Apple will continue to produce the iPad 2 and will lower the price by $100 to $200.

    • Going forward we believe that Apple and Sharp will jointly develop OLED panels for use in iPhone and iPad within the next 1 to 2 years. This contrasts with conventional wisdom that states Samsung will have a lock on OLED for that timeframe. The equalizer is a new printing technology based on a combination of daisy wheel and inkjet technology that "prints" the OLED onto a film that is then deposited onto glass. The yield improvements have been enormous and have enabled some trial runs to produce commercial yields. We expect Sharp/Apple to have a line testing this by the middle of 2012 with 2013 output possible.

    • Based on our checks we believe OLED is only slated for small and mid-sized panels (i.e., iPad, iPhone). iTV is unlikely to receive OLED treatment until 2015.

    The other section of Misek's report that's getting widely quoted -- about competitors "scrambling" to figure out what an iTV might be so as not to get "caught flat-footed" by Apple once again -- could apply just as well to everything else Misek saw on his trip to Japan.

    Note: Misek also believes that reports of weakness in the iPad market have been overstated, and although he cut his Q1 2012 iPad shipment estimate from 17 million to 14 million, he said he was doing so "due to Europe macro issues and lack of carrier subsidization."