非洲的城市化进程为成千上万人带来了巨大的希望，前提是基础设施能保持建设力度。而技术手段则大有希望提高非洲基础设施建设进程的速度和效率。

    非洲大陆的人口多达9.55亿人，是仅次于亚洲的世界第二大人口密集大陆。与其他各大洲的居民相比，他们正在经历速度更快的城市化进程。尽管超过半数的非洲人仍然生活在贫困线以下，但按照德克萨斯大学（University of Texas）教授，也是《非洲崛起》（Africa Rising）一书的作者维贾伊•马哈扬的估测，约有35%的非洲人已迈入中产阶级。

    今天，非洲大陆上人口逾百万的城市已经有37座。约有41%的非洲人居住在城市里，而据为联合国（the United Nations）所做的一份报告预测，到2020年，将有超过半数的非洲人在城市安家。这些人之所以迁往城市，是因为他们希望获得比在乡村和农场更高的安全感和更好的发展机会。但是他们往往发现，城市并没有做好准备来满足他们的基本需求，比如洁净的饮水和烹煮食物的燃料。

    建设基础设施，保证新进入城市的居民安居乐业并能创造更大价值，已经成为这些城市和国家领导人的重大责任。

    虽然多数非洲城市的基础设施十分匮乏，但正因为如此，公共与私营部门的领袖们才有机会建设新型的供水系统、电网和交通控制系统。与世界发达地区老化的基础设施相比，这些系统会更高效，也更节能。电子传感器和控制器等技术可对电力进行可变定价，对用水消耗量进行精确计量。与美国适应汽车需求的大规模道路和停车场系统相比，智能交通系统将更好地管理非洲的交通。

    目前，非洲已经在一个关键的基础设施领域取得了快速发展，这就是通讯业。

    代表全球通讯业利益的全球移动通信系统协会（Groupe Speciale Mobile Association (GSMA)称，各家无线通讯公司将在未来5年内在撒哈拉以南非洲地区投资500亿美元。一项由GSMA和德勤公司（Deloitte）联合开展的研究估测，在发展中国家，移动通讯渗透率每增加10%，其国内生产总值（GDP）年增长率就可提高1.2%。移动通讯渗透率是指拥有移动通信覆盖并直接联接到移动通讯系统的人数。

    在非洲向城市生活和现代经济体系转型的过程中，无线通讯革命正在迎来发展的转折点。在各种技术中，无线通讯技术能够跳过建设大量基础设施的阶段，从而确保获得最快的投资回报，同时带来提高生产力的最快捷途径。蜂窝网络和最终的无线宽带无需昂贵的物理联接就可确保通讯、信息、教育和金融实现互联。

    The urbanization of Africa offers great hope for hundreds of millions of people -- if the infrastructure can keep up. And technology holds huge promise to make building that infrastructure faster and more efficient.

    The 955 million people in Africa -- the world's second most populous continent after Asia -- are urbanizing more rapidly than residents of any other region. While more than half Africa's population lives below the poverty line, an estimated 35% have entered the middle class according to University of Texas Professor Vijay Mahajan, author of the book, Africa Rising.

    Today there are 37 cities on the African continent with more than one million people. An estimated 41% of the people in Africa live in cities and, by 2020 more than half will, according to estimates done for the United Nations. Those people are moving to the continent's cities because they expect more security and better opportunities than they have in rural villages and farms. But often they find that cities aren't prepared to provide basic needs like clean water and fuel for cooking.

    Establishing an infrastructure that will allow newly arrived settlers to thrive and become more productive is a key responsibility for the leaders of those cities and nations.

    While infrastructure in most African cities is adversely inadequate, public and private sector leaders have an opportunity to build basic water systems, electricity grids and traffic control systems that will be much more efficient and less energy intensive than the aged infrastructure in developed parts of the world. Technology such as electronic sensors and controls would permit variable pricing for power and finely-tuned measures of water consumption. Smart transit systems could manage traffic far more efficiently than the massive road and parking-lot systems required by vehicles in the U.S., for example.

    And Africa is already moving rapidly in one key infrastructure area: communications.

    Groupe Speciale Mobile Association (GSMA) -- which represents the interests of the global communication industry -- says wireless companies will invest $50 billion in sub-Saharan Africa over the next five years. A GSMA and Deloitte study estimates that an increase of 10% in mobile penetration -- the number of people who have mobile coverage and are directly connected to the mobile system -- can increase the annual GDP growth rate up to 1.2% in a developing country.

    The wireless communications revolution is coming at a turning point in Africa's transition to urban life and a modern economic system. By bypassing the need to build extensive physical infrastructure, wireless telecommunications promise the fastest payback and quickest route to improved productivity of any technology. Cellular networks and eventually wireless broadband promise communications, information, education and finance connectivity that bypass costly physical connections.

    事实上，由肯尼亚运营商M-Pesa公司（M-Pesa）和南非的电子钱包（eWallet）领衔的移动通讯服务已经帮助当地解决了金融机构不足的问题。移动通讯运营商沃达丰（Vodaphone）报告称，2008年，在推出M-pesa服务仅仅18个月后就有400万人用上了基于手机的银行服务，几乎与该国拥有银行账户的人数相当。

    世界各大公司正纷纷涌向非洲捕捉电信市场的机遇。由尼日利亚金融机构和南非投资者组成的财团近期沿非洲西海岸完成了金额达2,500万美元的海底光缆铺设。联合国国际电信联盟（ITU）称，这一进展导致目前正在争夺带宽资源的互联网服务供应商竞相杀价。ITU预计，未来两年间，可用的带宽将会进一步增加。

    另一家对非洲的无线通讯发展前景深信不疑的公司是印度的Bharti Airtel电信公司（Bharti Airtel）。今年年初，这家公司花了90亿美元购买科威特移动通讯公司（Kuwait's Mobile Telecommunications Co.）在非洲的大部分资产。Bharti公司增长迅猛，比印度的任何公司拥有的用户都多。它的成功反映了它对市场机遇的深刻理解，这种机遇是由那些极度贫困、需要依靠手机联络致富的客户带来的。Bharti公司之所以认为非洲市场富有吸引力是因为当地的手机渗透率仅为40%左右。

    尽管宽带接入是各地发展的长期目标，但也不可低估手机通讯的商业潜力，这一点同样很重要。加纳的渔民如今通过手机寻找最佳的批发商，他们能给捕获的鱼开出最好的价格，这样，渔民就不用再每天都跑到码头上打听。加纳Esoko是一个市场信息系统，它为多种农作物推出了商品价格指数，每天通过短信将指数发送给农户，帮助他们为自己的农产品定价。

    印度的经验表明，在语音通话昂贵且互联网连接稀缺的地区，企业家更愿意使用基于文本的短信服务。联合乡村网络有限公司（United Villages Networks Ltd.）是一家由麻省理工学院（MIT）的应届毕业生开办的公司。他们的初衷是在乡村里提供互联网服务。但该公司后来调整了商业模式，开始从乡村商店接受短信订单。现在，它已在印度数十个小城市建立了杂货仓库，每天为店主供货。以前，这些店主必须外出进货，才能囤满货架。

    当前席卷非洲的技术革命显示了一种创业精神，这种精神将刺激这片土地的经济发展。各界领袖都可以投身于建设智能、公共的基础设施来充分利用这种精神。非洲是人类通往未来的全新通道，它充满了活力。这些基础设施将帮助非洲人民推动经济进一步发展，并最终创造财富。

    Bruno Di Leo是IBM成长市场部门的总经理。这是一个位于上海的全球性组织。他主要负责推动IBM在亚太区，印度，拉美，中欧和东欧，中东及非洲等地的高速增长的经济体中的业务取得成功。

    译者：清远

    Indeed mobile services, led by Kenya's M-Pesa and South Africa's eWallet, have helped overcome their region's shortage of banking facilities. Vodaphone reported that in 2008, after just 18 months of offering M-pesa, four million people were using cell-phone based banking services, nearly equal to the number of people in the country with bank accounts.

    World businesses are starting to flock to Africa to fulfill the telecommunications opportunity. A consortium of Nigerian financial institutions and South African investors recently completed a $250 million underseas fiber cable along Africa's West coast. That is resulting in slashed prices by Internet service providers who now have competing sources of bandwidth, according to the UN's ITU. The ITU expects far more bandwidth to become available in the next two years.

    Another company that is showing its belief in the prospects for wireless in Africa is India's Bharti Airtel. Earlier this year Bharti spent $9 billion to buy most of Kuwait's Mobile Telecommunications Co.'s African assets. Bharti has grown explosively to handle more subscribers than any other company in India. Its success reflects a deep understanding of the opportunities presented by very poor customers whose economic fortunes are boosted by cellular connections. Bharti finds Africa attractive because the cellular penetration rate there is still only about 40%.

    While broadband access is the long term goal everywhere, it's important not to underestimate the business potential of cellular connections. Fishermen in Ghana use cell phones to find wholesalers who will give them the best prices for fish they have caught rather than returning to the same dock every day. Esoko Ghana, a market information system, has created a commodity index with prices for many different crops that it sends by daily text message to farmers to help them price their produce.

    The experience of India shows that in places where voice calls are expensive and Internet connections rare, entrepreneurs gravitate to text-based messaging. United Villages Networks Ltd., a company founded by recent MIT graduates started out to provide Internet service in villages, but it recast its business model to accept text-message orders from village stores. Now it has established grocery depots in dozens of small cities in India that ship supplies daily to storekeepers who used to have to travel in order to stock their shelves.

    The technological revolution that is sweeping Africa demonstrates the entrepreneurial spirit that can spur the continent's economy. Leaders can leverage that spirit by committing to build a smart, public infrastructure that will promote further economic development and, ultimately, wealth creation for the people of this new and vibrant gateway to the future: Africa.

    Bruno Di Leo is General Manager of IBM Growth Markets, a global organization based in Shanghai. He is responsible for driving IBM's business success in high-growth economies across Asia Pacific, India, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa.