美国经济恢复四大怪现象 - 手机财富中文网

美国经济恢复四大怪现象

Nin-Hai Tseng | 2011-09-01 16:58

从消费支出到企业投资，本轮经济恢复与以往任何一次都截然不同。

究竟是什么一直在阻碍美国经济的恢复？恐怕我们一时很难准确地指出症结所在。经济学家和媒体一般喜欢用“大萧条”这个词来形容从2008年房地产市场崩盘之后（直至今日）美国经济的惨状。这表明他们认为这次经济危机和以往的经济萧条并没有什么区别，只不过是更加严重一些而已。

眼下经济恢复再度步履维艰，美国金融体系更是接近崩溃。不过哈佛大学（Harvard University）经济学家肯思斯•罗高夫指出，今天的经济恢复可以说是一次“大紧缩”，这次金融海啸的余震无论从哪方面看，都不像是一场典型的经济萧条。

本月早些时候，罗高夫在《评论汇编》（Project Syndicate）杂志中撰文称：“在传统的经济萧条期里，一旦经济开始重新增长，就意味着不久之后，经济将以较快的速度返回常态。经济不仅会收复失地，而且一般来说，一年之内，就会追赶上它的长期增长趋势。”

这场大萧条两年前就正式结束了。不过今年上半年，美国经济的增幅几乎为零。上周美联储（Federal Reserve）主席本•伯南克在怀俄明州的杰克森霍尔发表了一个演讲，承认市场之所以疲弱不振，其根本症结并不是靠央行的力量就能解决。现在华盛顿的立法者们必须站出来，给经济复苏注入活力。

谈到下一步该怎么办，国会议员们可能颇感束手无策。不过议员们也许有必要研究一下本次经济恢复与以往历次经济危机有哪些不同之处，以此作为切入点。

企业长期投资：自1949年以来，建筑行业一直是推动经济恢复的主要因素之一。兴建楼宇和厂房不仅可以帮助企业扩大产能，而且总体经济中也会新增不少工作岗位。因为每修建一栋楼，就必要有人负责接单、仓储、运输等等工作。

历次经济危机结束时，企业的投资都会激增，只有这次是个例外。眼下并没有多少新工厂破土动工，企业也没有吃进多少商业地产。据美国进步中心（Center for American Progress）介绍，自从金融海啸爆发以来，企业的投资一直保持低位运行，平均只占GDP的10.3%，这是自上世纪70年代以来所有经济周期中最低的一次。

事实上，标普500企业中的非金融类企业共持有1.1万亿美元现金和短期投资，可见美国的大企业并不是无钱投资。那么美国企业捂紧钱袋子的原因到底是什么？

前美联储主席艾伦•格林斯潘最近接受《金融时报》（The Financial Times）采访时指出：“在这次经济恢复时期里，企业为什么不肯投资于长期资产？也就是说他们为什么不肯做出20年以上的投资？原因主要是当前经济中存在着很大的不确定性因素。”

格林斯潘敦促华盛顿的立法者和决策层不要对经济进行干预，让经济依靠自身的力量进行自愈。不过增长缓慢和高失业率带来的痛苦让很多人来难以忍受。此外，“无为而治”的做法在政治上也是不受欢迎之举，更何况2012年的总统大选已经迫在眉睫。

It's hard to pinpoint exactly what has continued to hamper the U.S. economy. Economists and the media have popularly adopted the term "The Great Recession" to describe all that's gone wrong since the housing market collapsed several years ago, implying that Americans have just come out of a typical recession that, if anything, was only more severe.

Needless to say, the near implosion of the U.S. financial system was severe. But as Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff has pointed out, the recovery today is something that can only be called "The Great Contraction," suggesting that the aftermath of a financial crisis does not look anything close to that of a typical recession.

"In a conventional recession, the resumption of growth implies a reasonably brisk return to normalcy," Rogoff wrote earlier this month in Project Syndicate. "The economy not only regains its lost ground, but, within a year, it typically catches up to its rising long-run trend."

The recession officially ended more than two years ago. And yet, during the first half of this year, the economy barely grew. With Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledging in his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo., last week that the problems plaguing the marketplace are beyond the powers of the central bank, it becomes all the more important for Washington lawmakers to help reboot the economy.

Members of Congress might be scratching their heads over what to do next, but perhaps as a starting point, members should look at how this recovery is different from previous ones.

Long-term business investment: Since 1949, construction has been a major component driving economic recoveries. Not only does construction of new buildings and factories help make companies become more productive, but it also creates jobs for the overall economy as each order of concrete, for instance, demands workers to do everything from taking the order to delivering it from the warehouse to the building site.

But unlike the end of other recessions when business investment surged, companies today aren't building many new factories or buying up much commercial real estate. Business investment has continued at a slow place, averaging 10.3% of GDP since the start of the latest recession – the lowest average for any business cycle since the 1970s, according to the Center for American Progress.

Given that S&P 500's non-financial companies altogether hold more than $1.1 trillion in cash and short-term investments, it's not as if America's biggest companies don't have the money to invest. So what's to blame for the pullback in spending?

"It's a question of why is it that we no longer in a recovery can fund long-term assets –basically 20 years or more – and the answer essentially is that there's a huge element of uncertainty in this economy," former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a recent interview with The Financial Times.

Greenspan has urged Washington lawmakers and policymakers to stand aside and let the economy heal on its own. However, the pains of slow growth and high unemployment might be too much for many to endure. What's more, doing nothing would certainly be politically unpopular especially given the 2012 presidential election.

政府工作的流失：在经济危机最严重的时期，私人部门的裁员人数可能数以百万计。与此同时政府部门也裁掉了大量人员，这更给经济恢复蒙上了一层阴影。例如今年七月，私人部门虽然新增了154,000个就业岗位，但与此同时公共部门却裁掉了37,000个岗位，抵消了这一利好因素的效果。

美国经济政策研究所（Economic Policy Institute）最近公布的一份报告显示，与经济刚刚开始恢复时相比，政府部门的佣工率反而下降了1.9%，也就是说损失了43万个工作岗位。相比之下， 2000年那次经济危机后的恢复期，政府佣工率增长了1.1%，也就是为经济填加了23.2万个工作岗位。

现在政府部门里之所以哀鸿遍野，很多人被迫卷铺盖回家，很大程度上是由于政府税收收入下降，但失业和医疗保险上的支出却出现了激增。各州和各地方政府由于无法合法地保持高额赤字（不像联邦政府），因此为了填补预算上的巨大漏洞，只好以前所未有的力度进行裁员。而且这种趋势很有可能会持续下去。不光是州政府和地方政府可能继续裁员，现在为了减轻美国1.5万亿美元的庞大赤字，国会已经成立了一个特别委员会，如果特别委员会认为有必要的话，甚至连联邦政府都可能裁员。

消费支出：金融危机之前的那几年，美国家庭显然在花钱上过于大手大脚了。金融危机爆发后，美国家庭一直在努力改善财务状况，但仍然离危机前那种多消费、少储蓄的水平差得很远。

消费目前占美国经济的比重大约为70%上下。在经济危机最严重的时期，美国消费出现了显著下降，即便是在整个恢复时期里也依然低迷不振。不过纽约联邦储备银行（the Federal Reserve Bank of New York）近日指出，美国家庭减少了在教育、娱乐和外出就餐等个人可支配性服务上的支出，这是个不同寻常的现象。

经济危机时期，这些奢侈性消费的下降在某种程度上又导致实际GDP的下滑。美国的实际GDP下跌了近7%，跌幅是上世纪80年代经济危机的两倍还多。

住房：在经济恢复时期，房地产业一般会强势反弹，促进总体经济的增长。

毫无疑问，这次经济恢复时期是个例外。而且短期内房地产市场也不见得有反弹的可能了，因为随着大量房主丧失了抵押品赎回权，许多房产重新流入已经供应过剩的房市，因此预计房价还会降得更低。

这不仅会对房屋销售造成影响，同时还意味着消费者在家具、家电以及其它与住房相关的产品和服务上的支出也会减少。

伯南克承认，制订推动经济长期稳健发展的经济政策已经超出了央行的权力范围。伯南克已经敦促华盛顿的立法者们采取“积极的、前摄性的住房政策”，来给萧条的房地产市场解套。

译者：朴成奎

Government job loss: The private sector may have shed millions of jobs during the depths of the latest recession, but part of what has added to the persistent gloom of the economic recovery is the slash in government jobs. For instance in July, the private sector added 154,000 jobs but the bump was counteracted by the fact that the economy shed 37,000 public-sector jobs.

Government employment today is about 1.9% lower than it was at the start of the recovery, a fall of 430,000 jobs, according to a recent report by the Economic Policy Institute. By contrast, government employment rose by 1.1% or 232,000 jobs during the same stage of the recovery following the 2000 recession.

The stubborn woes of today's government job market have been largely due to falling tax revenues while spending on unemployment and Medicaid has surged. State and local governments, unable to legally run deficits (unlike the federal government), have been dealing with glaring budget holes by slashing headcount at an unprecedented rate. And that likely will continue – not only at the state and local level, but also the federal level depending how a special congressional committee assigned to reduce America's debt decides to find $1.5 trillion in savings.

Consumer spending: In the years leading up to the latest recession, households clearly overspent. They've since been working to improve their finances but we're still a long way from the point where household debt levels fall where consumers feel comfortable spending more and saving less.

Consumption, which makes up roughly 70% of the U.S. economy, dropped off significantly during the depths of the recession and has continued to be slow through the economic recovery. But as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently noted, what has been unusual is the decline in spending on discretionary services like education, entertainment and meals at restaurants.

Spending on such luxuries partly drove the decline of real GDP during the latest recession. It is down nearly 7% -- more than double the percentage decline seen in the early 1980s recession.

Housing: During most economic recoveries, the housing industry typically rebounded in a big way and helped drive overall growth.

Needless to say, this hasn't played out this time. And it become less likely that it will, given expectations that home prices could fall further as an onslaught of foreclosures could eventually seep into the housing market already in excess.

This not only impacts home sales, but it also means consumers will spend less on furniture and appliances and other housing-related goods and services.

Bernanke, acknowledging that economic policies supporting strong economic growth in the long run are beyond powers of the central bank, has urged Washington lawmakers to adopt "good, proactive housing policies" to undo the depressed real estate market.

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