经济动荡：商界急需乔布斯式的勇气
Geoff Colvin | 2011-09-01 16:59
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[译文]
Of all that Steve Jobs' achievement has taught us, the importance of courage is especially relevant now.
I don't mean his courage in facing his health issues, though that will be a story in itself if we ever learn the details.
I mean his extraordinary courage as a business leader. Time and again, as the CEO of Apple (AAPL), he introduced products, services, and entire business models completely unlike anything in existence. He disdained market testing (thus keeping his plans secret), he could not be sure he would succeed, and he risked significant losses and ridicule if he failed.
Yet his batting average was one of the all-time best, and as a CEO, he was the greatest wealth creator ever. No one else comes close. None of it could have happened without off-the-charts courage.
The topic was hot even before the Jobs news because the economic chaos of the past few years has paralyzed managers with fear. They keep seeing events that are supposed to be impossible, such as a U.S. debt downgrade, and the uncertainty of what may happen next leaves them frozen, afraid to do anything.
It's no coincidence that a business book called Uncertainty: Turning Doubt and Fear Into Fuel for Brilliance will be published next month. A consultant named Bill Treasurer has built his practice on teaching courage to managers (before consulting, he made a living by diving into water from 100 feet while on fire). The Americas Business Council held a Courage Forum last year. Articles and blog posts on the subject seem to be on the upswing.
Nothing suggests the business world is getting any less chaotic. So what does business courage mean right now? A few things.
Committing significant money
The number one way most business leaders respond to uncertainty is by pulling back expenses, sometimes radically. Trouble is, sometimes those expenses are actually investments that will pay off in the future, like R&D, marketing, and plant expansion. Cutting them will result in higher reported profits today but lower profits later.
Pusillanimous managers complain that they're forced to make these cuts by short-term oriented investors. But research by New York University's Baruch Lev and others shows that it isn't so. Investors can tell the difference between spending that builds value and spending that doesn't.
Brave managers keep making value-creating investments in uncertain times. DuPont (DD) maintained R&D spending even through the Great Depression, inventing nylon, neoprene, and other products that would earn billions for decades thereafter. Warren Buffett's recent investment in Bank of America (BAC) is a great example of managerial courage. Putting $5 billion of Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKA) capital into a scorned stock with the economy in peril takes guts. That's what has made him rich.
Rethinking layoffs
Mass firings seem irresistible in uncertain times -- after the company takes a charge for severance costs, the savings are immediate. Huge layoffs were everywhere in the last recession, and they're definitely in fashion again. Look at banking: HSBC (HBC) will lay off 30,000, Bank of America 3,500 to 10,000, UBS (UBS) 3,500, ABN Amro 2,350.
Sometimes layoffs are truly unavoidable. But brave leaders know that the long-term costs of layoffs, and the long-term benefits of keeping employees through tough times, are often far greater than any near-term savings from firing workers.
Here again, managers claim Wall Street forces them to whack expenses through layoffs, and again it isn't true. Investors might reward a firm for firing people as it combines with a recently bought company, says Bain & Co. research. But if you're laying off employees strictly as a cost-cutting measure, like many companies today, Wall Street will likely see it as a sign of trouble and send your stock down.
Going big
What fearful leaders often do in perilous times is nothing. Worried that any action is risky, they sit still. But they aren't safe. The winners in uncertain times are the bold, and the losers are often the cautious hedgers.
Maybe you're committed to continuing to spend on value creating projects, even if reported profits take a hit -- that's great. Or maybe the tough times have awakened you to your company's insanely bloated spending, and you're seizing this opportunity to slash costs deeply and rationalize the whole organization -- that's great too. McKinsey research shows that in past recessions, companies that followed either path did best. It was the timid middle -- those that cut just enough to get by without forming a larger strategy -- that did worst. The lesson: Decide what your business needs now, and be brave enough to go big.
Aristotle called courage the first virtue, and Samuel Johnson called it the greatest. Their reasoning was the same: It makes all the other virtues possible. Courage means taking risks, and that becomes much more difficult when the environment itself becomes dramatically riskier, as it is now. That's why times like these so violently separate winners from losers.
Taking risks now is frightening. But as Jobs, Buffett, and other business champions keep showing us, it's your only hope.
史蒂夫•乔布斯的巨大成就教会我们很多东西，其中勇气的重要性在当前表现得尤为突出。 我这里所说的并非他直面健康状况的勇气，不过，如果我们能有幸了解更多内情，想必这个问题也值得大书特书。 我要说的是他作为商业领袖的非凡勇气。作为苹果首席执行官，他一次又一次推出前所未有的全新产品、服务甚至全套商业模式。他蔑视市场测试（因此得以对计划严加保密），他无法确定是否会取得成功，如果不幸失败，可能会带来巨大损失和世人的嘲笑。 然而，他领导的苹果是史上产品成功率最高的公司之一，作为首席执行官，他是最伟大的财富创造者，其他人都望尘莫及。如果他没有过人的勇气，这一切都不可能发生。 早在乔布斯辞职之前，这就已经是个热门话题，因为过去几年来的经济动荡使许多经理人深感忧惧，不敢采取行动。他们不断见证本来不可能发生的事情，比如美国债信评级遭到下调，今后还会发生什么事？这种不确定性使他们呆若木鸡，束手无策。 一本题为《不确定性：化疑虑和忧惧为成功动力》（Uncertainty: Turning Doubt and Fear Into Fuel for Brilliance）的商业类书籍将于下周出版，这可不是巧合。一位名叫比尔•特雷热的咨询师专门向经理人传授勇敢之道，藉此建立起自己的公司（进入咨询业之前，他的拿手绝技是在自己身上点火，然后从百英尺高台跃入水中）。美国商会（Americas Business Council）去年主办了一场勇气论坛。关于这个话题的文章和博客帖子似乎也越来越多。 没有任何迹象表明商业界的混乱形势将会缓解，那么，商业勇气现在意味着什么呢？包括下列几点： 投入大量资金 大多数商业领袖应对不确定性的第一招就是紧缩开支，有时甚至是急剧削减。问题是，有时候这些开支实际上属于投资，它们在未来可以带来丰厚的回报，比如研发、市场营销和工厂产能扩大等方面的支出。削减这部分开支可以提高眼前利润，但却会侵蚀日后的利润。 优柔寡断的经理人往往抱怨，他们削减此类开支是因为受到目光短浅的投资者的压力。可是，纽约大学（New York University）教授巴鲁奇•勒夫等人的研究显示，事实并非如此：投资者能够区分创造价值的开支和不能创造价值的开支。 勇敢的经理人在充满不确定性的时候仍会持续进行创造价值的投资。即使是在大萧条期间，杜邦（DuPont）也维持了研发支出，发明了尼龙、氯丁橡胶等产品，它们在之后的几十年里为公司赚得了数十亿美元。沃伦•巴菲特最近对美国银行（Bank of America）的投资也是经理人勇气的典型例子，眼下经济风险很大，伯克希尔哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）在此情况下向遭投资者鄙视的美银投资50亿美元，这需要胆量——巴菲特正是藉此才成为巨富。 | Of all that Steve Jobs' achievement has taught us, the importance of courage is especially relevant now. I don't mean his courage in facing his health issues, though that will be a story in itself if we ever learn the details. I mean his extraordinary courage as a business leader. Time and again, as the CEO of Apple (AAPL), he introduced products, services, and entire business models completely unlike anything in existence. He disdained market testing (thus keeping his plans secret), he could not be sure he would succeed, and he risked significant losses and ridicule if he failed. Yet his batting average was one of the all-time best, and as a CEO, he was the greatest wealth creator ever. No one else comes close. None of it could have happened without off-the-charts courage. The topic was hot even before the Jobs news because the economic chaos of the past few years has paralyzed managers with fear. They keep seeing events that are supposed to be impossible, such as a U.S. debt downgrade, and the uncertainty of what may happen next leaves them frozen, afraid to do anything. It's no coincidence that a business book called Uncertainty: Turning Doubt and Fear Into Fuel for Brilliance will be published next month. A consultant named Bill Treasurer has built his practice on teaching courage to managers (before consulting, he made a living by diving into water from 100 feet while on fire). The Americas Business Council held a Courage Forum last year. Articles and blog posts on the subject seem to be on the upswing. Nothing suggests the business world is getting any less chaotic. So what does business courage mean right now? A few things. Committing significant money The number one way most business leaders respond to uncertainty is by pulling back expenses, sometimes radically. Trouble is, sometimes those expenses are actually investments that will pay off in the future, like R&D, marketing, and plant expansion. Cutting them will result in higher reported profits today but lower profits later. Pusillanimous managers complain that they're forced to make these cuts by short-term oriented investors. But research by New York University's Baruch Lev and others shows that it isn't so. Investors can tell the difference between spending that builds value and spending that doesn't. Brave managers keep making value-creating investments in uncertain times. DuPont (DD) maintained R&D spending even through the Great Depression, inventing nylon, neoprene, and other products that would earn billions for decades thereafter. Warren Buffett's recent investment in Bank of America (BAC) is a great example of managerial courage. Putting $5 billion of Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKA) capital into a scorned stock with the economy in peril takes guts. That's what has made him rich. |
不要轻率裁员 经济前景不确定时，大规模裁员看起来是难以抗拒的选择——承担一笔遣散费之后，节省成本的效果立竿见影。上次经济危机的时候随处可见超级大裁员，如今它们又再次流行了起来。看看银行业的情况吧：汇丰银行（HSBC）将裁员30,000人，美国银行计划裁掉3,500-1,0000人，瑞银集团（UBS）裁3,500人，荷兰银行（ABN Amro）2,350人。 有时候裁员确实是无法避免的，但是勇敢的领导人深知裁员的长期后果，以及在困难时期与员工同舟共济的长远效益，这些效应的影响往往远超过裁员在短期内带来的成本节约。 经理人们再次喊冤，称华尔街逼迫他们通过裁员来大幅降低开支，这同样并非事实。贝恩咨询公司（Bain & Co.）的研究显示，如果某公司最近进行了收购，为整合而炒掉一批冗员，那投资者或许会表示赞许。可如果纯粹把裁员当成降低成本的手段，正如眼下许多公司的做法，那华尔街只会认为这暗示公司陷入了麻烦，结果导致股价走低。 大举行动 面临危险时，怯懦的领导人往往无所事事，他们担心任何行动都有风险，因此宁愿什么都不做，但这么做并不见得更安全。动荡时期的赢家都是英勇之士，而输家往往是谨小慎微的骑墙派。 或许你正致力于继续在创造价值的项目上进行投资，哪怕会影响近期利润——这很好；或许世道艰难促使你警醒，发现公司虚耗了太多费用，准备借此机会深度削减成本，并优化整个组织——那也很不错。麦肯锡（McKinsey）的研究表明，在以往的衰退中，采纳上述两种策略的公司表现都很好，而表现最糟糕的正是那些怯懦的中间派——那些只敢因形势所迫而削减一些开支，而没有远大战略的公司。这给我们的启发是：判断自己的公司现在到底需要什么，然后鼓起勇气大举行动。 亚里斯多德曾把勇气称为第一种美德，塞缪尔•约翰逊则称之为最伟大的德行。他们的理由如出一辙：勇气使其他所有德行成为可能。勇气意味着承担风险，这一点在宏观环境本身的风险急剧增加时变得困难得多，眼下正是这样的时刻。正因为此，目前的时局才使赢家和输家之间的差距如此明显。 眼下，承担风险令人恐惧。不过，正如乔布斯、巴菲特和其他商界精英不断向我们揭示的那样，甘冒风险是目前唯一的希望所在。 译 小宇 | Rethinking layoffs Mass firings seem irresistible in uncertain times -- after the company takes a charge for severance costs, the savings are immediate. Huge layoffs were everywhere in the last recession, and they're definitely in fashion again. Look at banking: HSBC (HBC) will lay off 30,000, Bank of America 3,500 to 10,000, UBS (UBS) 3,500, ABN Amro 2,350. Sometimes layoffs are truly unavoidable. But brave leaders know that the long-term costs of layoffs, and the long-term benefits of keeping employees through tough times, are often far greater than any near-term savings from firing workers. Here again, managers claim Wall Street forces them to whack expenses through layoffs, and again it isn't true. Investors might reward a firm for firing people as it combines with a recently bought company, says Bain & Co. research. But if you're laying off employees strictly as a cost-cutting measure, like many companies today, Wall Street will likely see it as a sign of trouble and send your stock down. Going big What fearful leaders often do in perilous times is nothing. Worried that any action is risky, they sit still. But they aren't safe. The winners in uncertain times are the bold, and the losers are often the cautious hedgers. Maybe you're committed to continuing to spend on value creating projects, even if reported profits take a hit -- that's great. Or maybe the tough times have awakened you to your company's insanely bloated spending, and you're seizing this opportunity to slash costs deeply and rationalize the whole organization -- that's great too. McKinsey research shows that in past recessions, companies that followed either path did best. It was the timid middle -- those that cut just enough to get by without forming a larger strategy -- that did worst. The lesson: Decide what your business needs now, and be brave enough to go big. Aristotle called courage the first virtue, and Samuel Johnson called it the greatest. Their reasoning was the same: It makes all the other virtues possible. Courage means taking risks, and that becomes much more difficult when the environment itself becomes dramatically riskier, as it is now. That's why times like these so violently separate winners from losers. Taking risks now is frightening. But as Jobs, Buffett, and other business champions keep showing us, it's your only hope. |
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