Sometimes I'll be sitting at home watching TV late at night thinking, I need to buy something like shampoo. Instead of putting it on the grocery list in the kitchen, I could just click on the Amazon app, type in "shampoo," and one kind I like will come up. I click "Buy Now," and it's on its way. And because I have Amazon Prime, I know I'm going to get it in two days. For me, that's faster than putting it on the list in the kitchen. That convenience is going to dramatically change the way I think all of us are going to consume over time, and the Big Box retailers need to figure that out because Amazon will only get bigger and bigger.

   I was talking to the guy from Home Depot who runs online for them, and he was saying that was a big issue. Really, how can they compete with Amazon? There needs to be what I'm calling the "Hulu of Big Box retail," where these retailers get together and there's one-click Prime-like shipping for all of them. Google could definitely do it, but someone needs to step up and compete with that Amazon's ease of use. Because frankly, we're not going to use that Home Depot app, Wal-Mart app, and 25 other apps for all the big box retailers out there.

    我在网络流量分析公司Omniture的工作经历让我了解到，很多企业都在寻找客户上煞费苦心。比如说梅塞德斯奔驰公司（Mercedes-Benz）想对我这间屋子里的人打广告，为了确保屋子里的每个人都能看到广告，必须花很多钱。但90%的钱都浪费在了那些看了广告也没有能力购买豪车的人身上。

    事实上，现有的技术完全可实现广告直接定位到我这个人。但这项技术还没有整合起来，而有能力实现这种整合的人目前也还没有采取行动。我认为Facebook是这个能力的。但是如果Facebook不去做这件事的话，还有很多很多的初创公司可以帮助企业把广告定制到个人层面，不过其中很多牵涉到隐私问题。其中首当其冲的就是Facebook，但是我认为Facebook可以解决这个问题。在我看来，营销支出的浪费是一种最低效的开销，任何企业都难以避免。

    My experience with Omniture helped me understand how much people try to find customers. So say Mercedes-Benz wants to target people in a room I'm in. They would spend money trying to find each one of us, and 90% of their money would be wasted on people who would look at ads and would not have the means or capacity to buy a particular car.

    The technology exists to be able to target me specifically. But it just hasn't been stitched together, and someone with the means to stitch it together just hasn't done it yet. I would guess that would be Facebook. But if Facebook doesn't do it, there are dozens and dozens of upstarts that help personalize ads down to a personal level, though a lot of them have privacy issues. Facebook's been at the forefront of that, and I think Facebook can fix that. That's in my view the most inefficient component of any business, really: the marketing spent.

    I do believe we're completely in the midst of social disruption. Facebook was completely built around the sense of people and the social graph that people create. And now we have Google, which is hellbent on competing because their whole franchise was built on the foundation of search for content. The two worlds collide. Ultimately, you want your people network to embrace search and content. And it will be the social platform that we live on that will determine where we shop, where we consume content, maybe the way we actually work.

    Ultimately with Google and Facebook, I don't think we'll have two tabs we'll go back and forth between. I think we're going to pick one. One will prevail. It's not clear which one, but three years from now, I think we'll have that answer.

    Battles have been fought over the music platform, the delivery mechanism, our smartphone and our tablet. The last bastion will be the home. That to me, is the last disruption to take place: to make the home as simple to access as our iPhone or BlackBerry device, a social platform with our network of friends and our circles of professionals consuming content of all different types. Because right now, we're still just downloading movies and flipping between ESPN and network TV.

    Every company is trying to figure out how do we get our employees and our consumers to do the things we want them to do. With Facebook, we started with who you know, and we're going to see a big shift from "who you know" to "what you know" to "what you do."

    In the "what you know" department, the contenders are companies like Jive and User Voice, all of whom have been figuring out how do we take who you know and use them to provide customer support in the best way possible and in a way that flattens the organization and blurs the employees and non-employees. My vote would go to Jive as the one that matters three years from now.

    Social gaming turns out to be the way we'll see most companies tackle the "what you do" part of the equation because it provides a constant reward mode and a constant feedback model, and it actually creates goals. With social gaming, you have a group of people who not only have a common affinity, they have a common challenge, and they're competitive. So they like to know that they're the best at something, whether their broker is doing a good job at selling stocks or employees trying to be healthier.

    With social networks or social games, we're learning more about people. That means we can reach out to them in very targeted ways. How do you use coupons, for instance?

    One of the most interesting companies I've seen that's going to reach out and help you reach out to these people in a very targeted way is MyLikes, a small startup funded with $5 million by Khosla. They have the potential to reach out and communicate to these groups that are not only working on who you know but what you know, and I expect them very soon to come after us and what we do.