It is an outcome no one could have predicted.

    In one corner was the Chevy Volt with the clever gasoline engine range-extender. The product of an industry giant with nearly unlimited engineering resources, the Volt bore the imprimatur of GM’s Bob Lutz, was supported by a comprehensive marketing effort, and distributed through a broad dealer network. With a price of $40,000, the gas-electric hybrid seemed destined for popular success.

    In the other corner was Tesla, an ego-driven upstart of a company with exactly zero experience in the design, engineering or manufacture of a new car and using unproven battery technology. (Unlike other automakers, Tesla uses thousands of lithium-ion battery cells, like those found in laptop computers.)

    Festooned with unfamiliar features, the electric Tesla Roadster was daringly priced at the upper range of luxury brands. To make its adoption even chancier, no dealers were involved; the young company would sell its $100,000 cars by itself.

    You know how it turned out. Tesla, the long-shot, goes from strength to strength, selling all the cars it can make while it builds a battery mega-factory in the desert and prepares to launch its third electric model, a crossover SUV. Through April, Automotive News figures show that Tesla has sold 6,800 units of the Model S this year.

    The Chevrolet Volt, meanwhile, seems headed to the dustbin of automotive history, like GM’s original EV-1 and the entire Saturn division. Over-engineered and over-priced, its “innovative” technology appears to be a dead end that has been imitated by exactly no one. GM recently cut the Volt’s price by $5,000 in an effort to boost sales, which have totaled a mere 2,779 cars this year.

    What accounts for the reversal of fortune? Was the Volt, launched in the midst of the latest Great Recession, buffeted by forces beyond its control? Or did Tesla catch lightning in a bottle as consumers embraced the idea of climate change? Three thoughts:

    The Volt suffered from the same ills that sent GM spiraling into bankruptcy. In attempting to accommodate every constituency, the committee- engineered car ended up satisfying almost no one. It was expensive, heavy, and slow. Tesla’s Model S, on the other hand, is essentially the creation of a single brainiac, company co-founder Elon Musk, who built the kind of sleek, upscale sedan he would buy for his own family—and succeeded on almost all fronts.

    With its whisper-quiet powertrain and jack-rabbit acceleration, the Model S provides a unique driving experience. The Volt is relatively joyless. It makes fuel economy and climate-change concerns about as much fun as a carrot-and-kale milkshake.

    Musk created an entirely new market for high-priced cars that are limited in their specifications (short range, few charging stations, no dealer network) but that deliver bountiful psychic benefits. The compromised Volt, on the other hand, seemed designed for drivers who wanted the benefits of an EV without fully committing to the concept of battery power

    Both sides are preparing for the next round. GM seems determined to make the Volt a success and is launching a second-generation design with better performance and a 50-mile electric range for the 2016 model year. A companion car, the all-electric Chevy Bolt with a promised 200-mile range, arrives a year later. Absent some unforeseen shift in customer attitudes or engineering breakthrough, it is difficult to see them making much of a dent in the market.

    Tesla, meanwhile, must launch its twice-delayed SUV while staunching a faster-than expected cash burn. Life will get more complicated as its portfolio grows. But Tesla’s success to date should encourage every upstart business person who dares to challenge the conventional wisdom with a disruptive proposition.

    谁都没有预料到这样一个结果。

    首先上场的是搭载了增程式汽油发动机的雪佛兰Volt汽车。作为它的生产商，行业巨头通用汽车公司几乎具备无限的工程资源。Volt也是通用汽车副董事长鲍伯•卢茨亲自拍板的产品，一系列营销活动和庞大的经销商网络为它提供了强有力的支持。这款售价4万美元的油电混合动力轿车似乎必将获得成功。

    特斯拉汽车随后登场。作为汽车行业的新生力量，它此前几乎没有任何汽车的设计、工艺和制造经验，其电池技术也没有经过验证。（和其他汽车厂商不同，特斯拉使用的是几千块锂铁电池构成的电池组，和笔记本电脑使用的电池没什么不同。）

    特斯拉Roadster还搭载了一些新鲜的功能，还大胆地设定了一个处于豪华品牌上游价位的价格。另外，特斯拉也没有自己的经销商网络。也就是说，这家年轻的公司将凭借自身力量销售售价10万美元的电动汽车。

    你也知道这两款车型的竞争结果。成功希望渺茫的特斯拉越卖越好，生产的汽车被抢购一空。特斯拉还在沙漠里建起了一座大型的电池工厂，另外它正准备推出它的第三款电动车型——一款跨界SUV。行业媒体《汽车新闻》的数据显示，从年初到四月末，特斯拉今年已经售出了6800台Model S轿车。

    与此同时，雪佛兰Volt似乎正在迈向汽车业历史的垃圾箱（就像通用的EV-1和整个Saturn部门一样）。工艺上“用力过度”和定价过高是它的两块短板，它的“创新技术”也走入了死胡同，到现在仍然没有任何厂家跟风模仿就是证明。通用最近给出了5000每元的降价力度以刺激销量，但Volt从年初至今的销量仍仅有2779台。

    为什么通用和特斯拉的命运发生了逆转？Volt这款诞生于最近一次“大衰退”期间的产品，是否受到了不可控因素的影响？抑或，特斯拉恰好抓住了消费者对气候变化的关心，从而一击成功？以下有三种看法：

    ·Volt和破产前的通用犯了同一个毛病。这款由公司高层拍脑袋决定的车型，本来希望迎合每一类消费者的需要，但最终几乎没有一个人感到满意。它的售价贵，质量重，车速慢。而特斯拉的Model S基本上是天才创始人埃隆•马斯克一人的作品，因为马斯克就喜欢这种造型优美的高端轿车，最终获得各方交口称赞，大获成功。

    ·凭借安静如耳语的动力系统和快如脱兔的加速，Model S为车主提供了独特的驾驶体验。相较之下，Volt几乎没有什么乐趣可言。它希望同时解决消费者对燃油经济性和气候变化的关切，但最终却像一杯胡萝卜加甘蓝奶昔一样索然无味。

    ·尽管售价高昂的特斯拉汽车自身也有一些局限（如续航里程短、充电站少、没有经销商网络等），但它可以带来充沛的心灵享受，并由此开辟了一个全新的市场。而在各方面均有妥协的Volt，似乎只是为那些既想享受电动车的好处，又不打算完全依赖电池动力的人准备的。

    通用和特斯拉都在积极准备下一轮的竞争。通用似乎铁了心要让Volt获得成功，不久它将推出2016款Volt汽车，这款经过全新设计的汽车将具备更出色的性能和50英里纯电动续航里程。通用还计划在后年推出一款名叫Bolt的全电动车型，它的续航里程将达到200英里。由于现在还不知道消费者的态度会有怎样的改变，或是未来两年内通用是否会实现工艺上的突破，现在还很难判断这两款新车将给市场带来怎样的冲击。

    与此同时，特斯拉必将会推出已经两度延期的电动SUV，同时它还要遏制已经超过预期的烧钱速度。随着车型的增加，特斯拉的日子也将变得更加复杂。但特斯拉的成功应该会激励很多初出茅庐的商人，让他们有胆量挑战和颠覆传统智慧。（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎

    审校：任文科