There is an old rule that economists follow: In making a forecast, give a number or a date—but not both. It is a rule that executives in the auto industry ignore with surprising frequency. In instances involving Volvo and Tesla TSLA -1.82% , two companies whose names are seldom spoken in the same breath, the lack of caution in setting future sales targets may cause them more trouble than a mere fender bender.

    After years of drift, Volvo Cars is trying to rebuild its product line under its Chinese owners Geely Motors. No longer content to be solely identified as a maker of boxy station wagons, Volvo has set its sights on becoming a full-fledged luxury manufacturer—on the same level as the industry’s top producers.

    Its goals are ambitious, aggressive, and yes, audacious. Leading the effort to reach them is CEO Håkan Samuelsson, who came to Volvo from Munich-based truck maker MAN in 2009. In an interview with Automotive News, Samuelsson set unexpectedly steep targets for Volvo’s recovery. Among the highlights:

    • A return to annual U.S. sales of 100,000 plus by 2016;

    • Arrival in the “elite pantheon of global luxury brands” in three to four years;

    • Achievement of 800,000 in global sales in 2020.

    经济学家通常会遵守一条老规矩：做预测时，要么给个数字，要么给个日期，但不能两个都给。但汽车业的高管们却经常忽略这条法则。就以沃尔沃（Volvo）和特斯拉（Tesla）为例，这两家公司的名字很少会被拿出来相提并论，但是他们在设置未来的销售目标时都缺乏谨慎，这或许会给他们带来大麻烦。

    经过多年的浮浮沉沉，沃尔沃被新东家中国吉利汽车（Geely Motors）收购后，正在重新构建产品线。沃尔沃不想再被认为只是一家旅行车制造商，而是着眼于成为一个货真价实的豪华车厂家，与其他顶级豪车品牌平起平坐。

    它的目标雄心勃勃，激进，甚至可以说大胆。现任CEO哈肯•萨缪尔森于2009年从慕尼黑卡车制造企业MAN公司跳槽至沃尔沃，在近日接受《汽车新闻》（Automotive News）采访时，萨缪尔森意外地给沃尔沃的复苏设置了非常大胆的目标，其中包括：

    • 到2016年，使沃尔沃在美国市场的年销量恢复到10万台以上；

    • 3至4年内，进入“全球豪车品牌的精英梯队”；

    • 到2020年，全球销量达到80万台。

    If Volvo can hit just one of those targets, Samuelsson would be honored like a Norse god back in Sweden where Volvo’s headquarters remain. But even with Geely’s backing, Volvo doesn’t have the scale, depth, or wherewithal to make a serious challenge to the industry’s upscale leaders. Competition in the car business has only tightened in the past several years while Volvo has been sidelined, and it is starting anew from well back in the pack.

    While Volvo’s targets have mostly been set out of the public eye, the same can’t be said about the sales goals facing Tesla Motors. CEO Elon Musk might as well have tweeted his to the world at large. From around 20,000 cars sold last year, he has let it be known that he wants to be selling more than ten times that number—250,000—in the U.S by 2020, and 500,000 worldwide. We’ll take a longer look at his chances further on in this column.

    哪怕沃尔沃能实现这些目标中的任何一个，萨缪尔森都会被瑞典人奉为神灵（沃尔沃的总部依然在瑞典）。但即使有吉利的支持，沃尔沃也仍然没有足够的规模、深度和资金来对高端车市的领头羊们形成现实的挑战。在沃尔沃靠边站的这几年，汽车行业的竞争变得更加激烈了，更何况沃尔沃现在几乎是从头开始。

    沃尔沃的目标基本上在公众视野之外，但特斯拉设定的雄伟目标则不是这样。该公司CEO埃隆•马斯克可能已经在Twitter上向全世界广而告之。在去年卖出约2万辆的基础上，他宣称到2020年，他要把美国市场的销量提高10倍以上——25万辆，全球销量则要达到50万辆。我们将在稍后探讨这个目标的可能性。

    Developing a true luxury brand that commands a premium price on the strength of its name can’t be done overnight, as Volvo should know. When he was running Lincoln, Jim Farley, who now heads Ford Europe, used to estimate that 15 to 20 years would be required to elevate Lincoln into the ranks of luxury players. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi, the only three authentic members of the group (excluding exotics like Ferrari and smaller makers like Jaguar) have been at it for decades and have earned their pedigrees with achievements in racing as well as in engineering and technology. Even Lexus doesn’t qualify for this elite grouping because of its weak standing outside the U.S and its lack of any racing credentials.

    Getting to the top tier requires a financial commitment that Volvo hasn’t made. Cadillac has invested billions of dollars in new models since 2000 in a bid to regain its luxury standing and still has more to do; it is now developing a V-8 powered flagship sedan for 2016. Volvo’s flagship is the 2015 XC90 sport utility, which is powered by a far-less imposing inline four-cylinder engine.

    Volvo hasn’t made its quixotic quest any easier with its recent performance. While it claims a long list of safety firsts—three-point seatbelts, rear-facing child seats, air bags—Volvo cars have always been positioned as sub- luxury or “entry luxe”, marketed to body of devoted fans who favor practicality over prestige and performance. Volvo was neglected during its years of ownership by Ford (1999-2010), as its product cycles stretched out longer and longer and other makers caught up on the safety front. 2007, and so far this year its sales have reached only 47,823 (vs. 52, 112 for the same period in 2013).

    Samuelsson is pinning his hopes on the belief that Volvo’s squeaky-clean reputation, which served it so well in the past, will resonate with a new generation of buyers. “If you look at what is happening in society, our brand promise is in line with developments,” he said in the interview. “People want to show that they are taking responsibility for safety and taking responsibility for the environment. I think in the future that will more and more be a premium value.”

    But Samuelsson overlooks changes in the market that will squeeze Volvo from both the bottom and the top. The German Three have been rolling out more and more new models, many at price points that used to be considered entry-luxe. Buyers shopping for a European brand can now choose between, say, Mercedes three-pointed star and Volvo’s ring and arrow emblem (a symbol for iron in Sweden but representing male sexuality in the U.S). That’s a tough comparison for Volvo.

    At the same time, volume brands like Toyota and Hyundai have been steadily adding upgraded features and entertainment, safety, and performance options that used to only be available on luxury models. That leaves very little space in the middle for brands like Acura, Infiniti, Lincoln – or Volvo. ” “Volvo’s goals aren’t completely unattainable but even if Volvo’s decisions are perfect, the competitive landscape is extremely challenging to thrive and grow in,” says Jessica Caldwell, senior analyst at Edmunds.com., the car-shopping web site.

    Tesla finds itself in a different, if not equally difficult, dilemma. Worries are growing that there is a large novelty element attached to the appeal of his $80,000 battery-powered car that will be difficult to replicate as its sales volumes grow. Consumer Reports added fuel to the worries when it reported that the company has about 2,300 remaining 2014 Model S cars, including showroom display cars, which the company is selling at a discount.

    One Seeking Alpha blogger figures that more than half of Tesla buyers are what he describes as essentially opportunistic. The Model S became an unexpected addition to their fleet of cars, and if it hadn’t been available, they wouldn’t have bought another luxury sedan of any description. “In subsequent years,” he reasons, “there will be lower numbers of purchasers deliberately modifying their normal purchase behaviors in order to get a Model S.”

    For Musk to reach his outsize targets, he will have to accomplish three things that he hasn’t tried before.

    • He will have to develop a robust distribution system that can offer test drives, provide service, and handle trade-ins. State franchise laws are currently limiting Tesla to the establishment of showrooms that are capable of displaying cars but do little else.

    • He will have to scale up his production capacity at a rate that the auto industry has never seen before. Musk wants to double output by the end of 2015 and make five times as many cars by 2020.

    • He will have to successfully launch his third all-new product, the more affordable Gen III, and make it profitably for less than half of what the Model S sells for. New models are demanding. He’s already delayed the introduction of his second car, the Model X, several times, and now it isn’t due until 2015’s third quarter.

    Musk’s Tesla and Geely’s Volvo are two vastly different companies with attached narratives that bear little resemblance to each other. But at this point in time, they find themselves in the same predicament: Living up to dates and numbers that give new meaning to the term “stretch targets.”

    开发一款真正能卖出高价的豪车品牌并非一夜之功，沃尔沃应该清楚这个道理。现任福特公司（Ford）欧洲负责人的吉姆•法利在之前运营林肯品牌时曾经预测道，要让林肯跻身豪华品牌之列，可能需要15至20年的时间。不算法拉利（Farrari）等超跑品牌和捷豹（Jaguar）等小型厂商，目前市场上真正算是豪华品牌的只有奔驰（Mercedes-Benz）、宝马（BMW）和奥迪（Audi），他们已经雄据豪车市场几十年了，而且是靠工艺、科技，甚至是赛车领域的全面成就才有了今天的优势。连雷克萨斯（Lexus）都算不上是高端市场的“第一梯队”，因为它在美国以外市场的美誉度较弱，而且它在赛车领域缺乏建树。

    要想进入“第一梯队”，需要在财政上做出大量投资，而沃尔沃目前还没有进行这样的投资。自从2000年以来，凯迪拉克（Cadillac）已经投资数十亿美元以重振其豪华品牌的地位，目前仍然有很多工作要做。现在，凯迪拉克正在为2016年研发一款V8引擎的旗舰车型。沃尔沃目前的旗舰车型是2015款XC90 SUV，搭载的是魅力小得多的四缸发动机。

    同时，沃尔沃最近的表现也不令人看好它的唐吉诃德式目标。虽然沃尔沃标榜它拥有一长串安全创新，比如三点式安全带、向后儿童座椅和各种气囊，但沃尔沃的车型还是经常被定位为“次豪华”或是“入门级豪车”，瞄准的往往是那些更注重实用性而不是声誉和性能的消费者。在老东家福特旗下时（1999至2010年），它的产品周期拉得越来越长，同时其他厂商也在安全性上追赶了上来，沃尔沃逐渐被市场忽视了。今年至今为止，它的销量只有47,823辆（去年同期有52,112辆）。

    沃尔沃一向以“极其环保”著称，这种声誉曾经让该公司受益良多。这次萨缪尔森也对这种声誉寄予厚望，希望它能引起新一代消费者的共鸣。他在采访中表示：“如果你注意社会目前的发展动向，你就会发现我们的品牌承诺与这种态势是一致的。人们想要展示他们正在对安全和环境负责。我认为在未来，这将为沃尔沃品牌增添一种溢价。”

    但是萨缪尔森忽视了市场正在发生的变化，这种变化正在高低两端给沃尔沃造成挤压。首先，“德系三巨头”一直在推出新车型，其中不少车型的价格都是过去所谓“入门级豪车”的价格。打个比方，现在想购买欧系车的消费者可以从奔驰和沃尔沃之间选一款。那么他是会选奔驰的“三角星”，还是沃尔沃的圆环加箭头呢（沃尔沃的LOGO造型在瑞典是铁的象征，但在美国则代表着男性象征）？对于沃尔沃来说，这是一个艰难的比较。

    与此同时，像丰田（Toyota）、现代（Hyundai）等平价品牌也在逐步添加高端功能、娱乐设施、安全配置和动力选择。这样一来，留给讴歌（Acura）、英菲尼迪（Infiniti）、林肯（Lincoln）或沃尔沃等中端品牌的空间已经很小了。汽车购买网站Edmunds.com的高级分析师杰西卡•卡德维尔指出：“沃尔沃的目标并不是完全不可能达到，但是即便沃尔沃的决策很完美，在如此激烈的竞争环境下，要想复苏和增长还是极具挑战性的。”

    特斯拉则陷入另一个同样棘手的困境中。首先是有人担心随着销量的增长，这款价值8万美元的电动跑车所带来的新奇感将逐渐下降。其次是《消费者报告》（Consumer Reports）称，特斯拉目前还有大约2300台没有售出的2014款Model S（包括展车）正在打折销售。

    一位博主在金融网站Seeking Alpha上指出，购买特斯拉的人中有一半以上可以被称作“机会型购买者”。购买Model S是人们在名下已经拥有的汽车之外的额外消费，如果没有特斯拉，他们也不会转而购买任何一款豪车。他解释道：“在未来几年，特地调整自己的正常购买行为来买入Model S的人将变少。”

    要想实现他的宏大目标，埃隆•马斯克必须要完成三件他以前未曾尝试过的事情。

    • 他必须建立一个强有力的经销网络，以便提供试驾和售后服务、处理二手车交易。各州目前的特许经营法律使得特斯拉只能设立一些展厅，除了展示轿车以外，这些展厅几乎做不了其他什么事情。

    • 他必须以汽车业前所未有的速度提高产能。马斯克希望特斯拉的产能到2015年末翻一番，到2020年增长5倍。

    • 他必须成功地推出第三款全新产品，也就是价格更加亲民的Gen III，并且要在不到Model S一半的价格上使它盈利。新车型要想成功是很难的，马斯克已经数次推迟了第二款车型Model X的发布，现在它可能要等到2015年第三季度才能正式上市。

    马斯克的特斯拉和吉利的沃尔沃是两家非常不同的公司，彼此很少有相像之处。但是这一次，他们陷入了相同的窘境：要在设定的时间里完成预定的销量，实现他们的“远大目标”。（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎