After the WSJ reported last Friday that Yahoo YHOO -1.42% is in talks to invest in messaging company Snapchat, I pointed out that the deal would contradict a senior Yahoo’s recent statements about how corporate venture capital investing is a distracting “hobby.”

    A few readers emailed to suggest I missed the boat, mostly echoing the succinct Ryan: “Yahoo is able to invest in Snapchat because of the money it made from its earlier investment in Alibaba. It probably views this as its next Alibaba.”

    No, it doesn’t. Because it can’t.

    To be clear, I’m not saying this as an indictment of Snapchat. I’m saying it as someone who passed fourth-grade math.

    Yahoo’s original $1 billion investment in Alibaba BABA -0.72% is currently valued at around $51.1 billion, if you include three things: (1) The 2012 share buyback, which included $6.3 billion in cash; (2) The IPO, which generated around $9.4 billion for Alibaba; and (3) Yahoo’s remaining stock holdings in Alibaba, which are valued at around $35.4 billion. Or, put another way, a return of around 51x.

    Yahoo’s reported deal for Snapchat would be an investment of around $20 million at a $10 billion valuation. To get the same multiple, Snapchat would need to be valued at around $501 billion. For context, that would make it the second-largest company traded on a U.S. exchange, behind only Apple AAPL -0.87% . It would be more than $100 billion larger than current second-place company Exxon Mobil, and not to mention such companies as Microsoft MSFT -1.22% , Johnson & Johnson JNJ -2.36% , Wells Fargo WFC -1.83% , General Electric GE -1.63% and Wal-Mart WMT -0.06% . Not to mention Alibaba, which only is valued at around $216 billion.

    But even if Snapchat — a company that so far has yet to generate revenue — somehow becomes an Apple-like outlier, Yahoo still would not get the same bang because it’s putting in fewer bucks. Were Snapchat to hit the 51x mark, its investment would be worth just over $1 billion. That’s a phenomenal return on relatively little risk, but wouldn’t give future Yahoo anywhere near the financial flexibility that current Yahoo received from Alibaba.

    Yahoo’s anticipated investment in Snapchat raises a lot of questions. But one certain answer is that it will not be Alibaba, The Sequel.

    《华尔街日报》（WSJ）上周五报道称，雅虎（Yahoo）正与阅后即焚应用公司Snapchat洽谈投资事宜。我随后指出，该交易将与雅虎最近的声明背道而驰，该公司曾表示，企业风险资本投资是一项令人分心的“业余爱好”。

    当时，有些读者给我发电子邮件，称我未得要领，其中颇具代表性的看法来自一位名为赖安的读者。赖安简明扼要的写道：“雅虎有能力投资Snapchat，是因为它对阿里巴巴的早期投资带来了巨大回报。雅虎可能将Snapchat视为自己获得超高回报的又一个机会。”

    不，雅虎不这么看，因为这是不可能的。

    说实话，我无意给Snapchat的未来下定论，但我下面的分析只要具备小学四年级的数学水平就能看明白。

    雅虎原本向阿里巴巴投资了10亿美元，如果将以下三个因素考虑在内，如今这笔投资已增值至约511亿美元：（1）2012年的股票回购计划，其中包括了63亿美元现金；（2）本次IPO，雅虎出售阿里持股狂赚约94亿美元；以及（3）雅虎仍然持有的阿里巴巴股份，目前价值约354亿美元。换言之，雅虎这笔投资的回报率约为51倍。

    据报道雅虎将对Snapchat投资约2000万美元，对Snapchat的估值为100亿美元。这笔投资要产生高达51倍的回报率，Snapchat的估值将需要达到5010亿美元左右。若果真如此，Snapchat将成为在美国交易所挂牌的第二大企业，市值仅低于苹果（Apple）。如此一来，Snapchat的市值将比目前排在第二位的能源巨头埃克森美孚（Exxon Mobil）高出1000亿美元，更别提微软（Microsoft）、强生（Johnson & Johnson）、富国银行（Wells Fargo）、通用电气（General Electric）、沃尔玛（Wal-Mart）之流了。阿里巴巴就更不用提了，该公司的市值仅约2160亿美元。

    而事实上，Snapchat至今尚未产生收益，即便该公司莫名成为了苹果公司那样的异类，雅虎也不会获得投资阿里那样的巨额回报，因为它对Snapchat投资的金额要小得多。即便Snapchat能为雅虎带来51倍的回报率，雅虎的投资也不过将增值到刚刚超过10亿美元。该投资将是相对较小风险带来惊人回报的典范，但它远不会给未来的雅虎带来如今从投资阿里那儿获得的巨大财务灵活性。

    雅虎对Snapchat的预期投资引出许多问题。但有一点可以肯定，那就是这笔投资难以续写“阿里巴巴投资神话”。（财富中文网）

    译者：Hunter